New base energy news issue 915 dated 25 august 2016
Oil Insights November 2015
1. Test Driving the Crude Oil Market:
Where are we heading to?
By
Oussama LAROUSSI, Oil Economist
As part of an ongoing uncertainty concerning the security of permanent supply, the world’s capacity
to absorb the excess glut and the diverging macroeconomic policies followed by different central
banks, crude oil prices have followed a rollercoaster pattern where every small event occurring in the
market is influencing the actual state of prices. Nonetheless, one should filter the noise that gets
reflected on prices in a timely fashion, and think fundamentally about the state of the market. It is
extremely important to assess dynamically the crude oil supply balance, integrate macro economic
scenarios and use proxy indicators to get a feel about future price curves. In the following; we intend
to give a brief overview about the crude oil market focusing on the aftermath of the 2014-2015 price
collapse and identify the main challenges that the energy industry will face.
Recent highlights:
The oil complex is depressed and as of today (09/11/2015) the market is displaying extreme
fear amid a possible interest rise from the US Federal reserve in December 2015
Saudi Arabia is displaying a “stubborn” attitude on pumping more crude oil to bankrupt shale
producers and is confirming the continuity of its Oil & Gas long term investments when
others are halting big oil projects. In line with its low price strategy, Saudi Arabia lowered
prices for European refiners and Preem (Swedish refiner) bought its first Cargo of Saudi
Arabian crude in nearly two decades. Other refiners are following suit.
Mixed signals are coming from China on its ability to spur growth on the 7% GDP level
nonetheless today (09/11/2015), Chinese oil imports were down 5.7% on a month earlier but
up 9.4% from a year earlier which might explain the uptick on oil prices on this day.
Europe is on a status quo attitude, waiting for the next ECB policy meeting in which Mario
Draghi is awaited to increase the level of quantitative easing in order to stimulate EU’s
economy, should this happen this will give a lift to industrial output which in turn will drive
the demand for oil
The United States are relying less on Oil imports – which are exhibiting a downward trend-
and It enjoys comfortable production that is coupled with multi-year high stock levels
Major oil companies are shifting from high risk megaprojects to shale operations that
generate the cash needed for its shareholders. Buckle up for more price volatility and a ramp
up in shale oil production for the months ahead!
I. Oil price environment:
2. 30
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170
02/05/08
02/09/08
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Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
Between 2014 and 2015 crude oil prices fell by more than 50% sparking a huge volatility in the
market and hitting many oil dependent countries. Lately, Brent crude has been hovering around the
$48 level and WTI was around the $45 level.
Figure 1: Brent and WTI prices during the period 2008-2015. Crude prices have bottomed down to
levels not seen since the onset of global financial crisis. Prices have more than halved in 2014-2015
II. USA: “The Super Shale Player”:
Crude oil as any other commodity is driven by the forces of supply and demand. On the supply side,
we have the classical OPEC producers, Non OPEC producers and the shale players. On the past years,
due to the improvement of hydraulic fracturing, increased well efficiency, cheap credit in North
America because of quantitative easing measures and the willingness of Uncle Sam to rely less
heavily on crude imports, Americans have started to pump crude tremendously. A direct effect of
this shale oil revolution - as it was coined by many economists- was the ongoing decrease of the US
crude oil Imports and thus leaving the market to bear an excess supply. As of Today, about one year
had passed since prices have started their slide and with major oil companies reporting falling profits,
it is crucial to understand the strategic direction that will be followed by them in order to “fight” the
low price of oil. One important conclusion that one can draw from their public statements and
reports is that they will shift from high risk projects that demand colossal investments to shale gas
extraction. This means that the US shale oil revolution is far from being finished. As majors oil
companies will be looking for this non-conventional source of growth, the US output level will surely
rise and thus will be sparking an ample availability of oil supply and a buildup in inventories. In terms
of inventory level, US commercial crude oil stocks are evaluated to be sitting around 482.8 million
barrels, one should note that the crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of
year (on the week ending October 30, 2015) in at least 80 years.
3. 3 000
4 000
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U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil
(ThousandBarrels per Day)
Growth Rate= 84%
y = -0,9355x + 46708
R² = 0,8354
2 000
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U.S. Imports of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrelsper Day)
Linéaire (U.S. Imports of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrelsper Day))
Figure 2: US Crude Oil Production. Production in the US have seen a dramatic increase of about 84% between
2006-2015
Figure 3: US Imports. Crude oil imports have fallen by 22% during the same period
III. China: “The ongoing economic world decelerator”:
On the demand side, the Chinese economy is running out of steam and is depressing the commodity
complex. As it became clear that china would not be able to sustain the levels of growth it has posted
over the past years, the demand side of the equation is softening. Not only that, but Chinese
economic indicators are all pointing to a slow down and economists are revising lower their
expectations towards the output of the People Republic of China (Q3 GDP: 6.9%). Why China matters
so much? The country is responsible alone for 12% of global oil demand. So any jitters happening in
the Chinese economy are having direct consequences on crude oil prices
4. Figure 4: China’s GDP vs. Crude Oil. We can clearly see the positive correlation between the two.
Periods of high crude prices have coincided with high GDP growth levels and the opposite is true
IV. OPEC: “The Oil Cartel”:
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an important factor that affects oil
prices. As a matter of a fact, this organization’s intended purpose is to manage oil production for its
member countries by explicitly setting production targets. Historically speaking, when OPEC lowered
production crude oil prices increased as a consequence.
According to EIA (Energy Information Administration), OPEC member countries account for 40% for
the world crude oil production and OPEC's oil exports represent about 60% of the total oil traded
internationally. And here comes the Cartel actions: Enjoying a 60% market share, OPEC's actions can,
and do, influence international oil prices. In particular, indications of changes in crude oil production
from Saudi Arabia known as the “swing producer” and OPEC's largest producer, frequently affect oil
prices. During the oil collapse, Saudi Arabia did not react as it has done in the past. In fact, it did not
cut production and on the contrary it increased it. The rationale behind such an action is that it wants
to maintain its market share albeit enduring the pain of low crude prices in an attempt to drive shale
producers bankrupt, why? As an established crude oil producer Saudi Arabia enjoys the lowest
marginal cost of production on a barrel basis as opposed to shale producers that are profitable at
higher crude oil prices.
5. 20
40
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Canada (lhs) Saudi Arabia
By squeezing the profitability of the shale players, Saudi Arabia wants to equilibrate the market from
a fundamental stand point.
Figure 5: Oil merit order curve. Saudi Arabia has the lowest production cost in the world
Figure 6: Imports from Canada and Saudi Arabia.
• It seems that imports from Canada exhibited a sharp increase between mid 2010 and mid
2013. now they stabilized around 1.845Mbd but still showing an increasing trend
• From the other hand, imports from Saudi Arabia dropped sharply by mid 2008. The slope
flattened between mid 2009 and mid 2012 only to reverse and post and increasing trend in
H2 2012
6. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
All Countries 1517.91 1542.36 1426.47 1400.44 1578.52 1752.77 1856.03 1891.80
%Canada 75% 78% 87% 87% 94% 97% 98% 98%
%Saudi Arabia 11% 10% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2%
0
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
WestAfrica Midde East
North America Ecuador + Columbia (rhs)
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45
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U.S. PercentTotal Imported by API Gravity of Crude Gravity 20.0 percentor less (%)
U.S. PercentTotal Imported by API Gravity of Crude Gravity 20.1 to 25.0 percent(%)
Table 1: share of PADD 2 (Midwest) imports
• In 2013 Canada accounted for 98% for total PADD II imports up from 75% in 2007
• In 2013 Saudi Arabia accounted for 2% down from 11% in 2007
One should also note that USA is mixing heavy oil coming from Ecuador, Columbia with abundant
light oil present in the US soil at the detriment of falling West Africa Imports of light crude In order to
produce medium and that’s what drives down Middle East demand as we can see in figure 7.
Figure 7: PADD 3 (US Gulf Coast) imports in Kbd
Figure 8: Heavy crude imports
7. 0
5
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Jan-2007
May-2007
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U.S. PercentTotal Imported by API Gravity of Crude Gravity 35.1 to 40.0 percent(%)
U.S. PercentTotal Imported by API Gravity of Crude Gravity 40.1 to 45.0%
U.S. PercentTotal Imported by API Gravity of Crude Gravity 45.1% or more (%)
Figure 9: US light crude imports
… It seems that there are increasing flows of heavy crude and decreasing flows of light crude as it
was explained in our previous statement
V. Europe: “The laggard”:
The global economic melt-down and the credit crunch had reduced the EU growth rate and thus
lowered economic output and de facto oil demand. The European Union is struggling to fight
deflation, ensuring a true union by bailing out its members and looking for other sources of growth.
However, it turned up that the essence of virtues of the European Union were miscalculated. With
Germany alone benefiting from the system other countries found themselves uncompetitive due to a
strong euro. Which in turned decreased their respective economies.
What’s next?
The current macroeconomic conditions push us to believe that the energy industry will still face a
bear market during 2016 and at least until 2017-2018. In fact, as the US Federal Reserve is preparing
to raise interest rates this action would increase the value of the dollar which has a negative effect
on the price of commodities. As crude oil is priced in dollars, all other things being equal, countries
that are heavily dependent on crude oil imports will suffer as their currency purchasing power will
lower. As a result, demand from emerging countries will likely decrease as a trivial adaptation
process. The Nuclear Iran deal has opened the gates for the Republic to start sending its crude oil
overseas. The US might lift the ban of exporting crude oil outside of its soil and will surely target
Europe as a market to “free” it from its dependence on Russian oil (more than 30% of European
Crude and gas supplies coming from Russia).
On this context we strongly believe that energy related companies need to adapt to this new normal
by engaging into process optimization and streamlining in order to unlock the benefits of
standardization and stimulate working capital. The benefits of having an integrated information
system can go beyond what managers can expect. By defining to the point requirements and
specifications, energy companies can make of software a true element of organization success.
