75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum, in a survey which I conducted between the 10th and 16th May. That ratio jumps to 81% when the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded.

1. 1
EU Referendum survey results:
UK will very likely remain in EU and sterling may appreciate
75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-
makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK
remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum, in a survey which I
conducted between the 10th and 16th May. That ratio jumps to 81% when the 10 respondents
who did not have a view are excluded.
By comparison, the latest poll-of-polls conducted by What UK Thinks has the “remain” vote
on 52% and “leave” vote on 48% five weeks before this crucial vote. But caution is
warranted given the large share of undecided voters, the importance of turnout and
differing results depending on whether polls are by phone or on-line. Current prices offered
by betting companies suggest a comfortable victory for the “remain” vote.
Of the 130 respondents with a view which I surveyed, 65% forecast that the UK leaving the
EU would be negative for the British economy medium-term. 19% forecast that it would be
positive and 15% that it would be neutral1. This is broadly in line with the view expressed
by Prime Minister Cameron and “remain” camp, the Bank of England and IMF.
The risk to the currency is forecast to be somewhat asymmetric. There is an overwhelming
view amongst those surveyed that, if the UK leaves the EU, sterling will depreciate while
38% forecast sterling to depreciate or remain stable should the UK remain in the EU.
Specifically, out of 131 respondents, 81% forecast that if the electorate votes for the UK to
leave the EU, sterling would depreciate between the referendum and end-year against the
currencies of the UK’s key competitors. Only 8% forecast that sterling would appreciate,
while 6% thought that the currency would be broadly stable. 6% did not express a view.
But out of 127 respondents, only 54% forecast that if the UK remains in the EU sterling
would appreciate. 11% forecast that sterling would depreciate, while 27% thought the
currency would be broadly stable. 8% did not express a view.
These survey results tend to back my view, expressed in What to expect in 2016 – same,
same but worse, that the electorate will vote for the UK to remain in the EU and that the
lifting of this uncertainty will see a reasonably competitive sterling appreciate.
But any currency rally is likely to be moderate given the UK’s structural deficiencies,
including a large current account deficit, low productivity and weak wage growth, and a
dovish central bank. A “remain” vote will not address these vulnerabilities near-term.
Finally, a note of caution. Like all polls, this survey may contain unintended biases which
are difficult to ascertain let alone measure accurately.
1 Total may not add up to 100% due to rounding

2. 2
The survey consisted of four sets of questions and was open from 10th
May 2016 (12:00) to 16th
May 2016
(12:00). Respondents could chose to skip one or more questions. I would like to thank the 131 analysts,
consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers, portfolio managers, sell-side
salespeople, strategists and traders who responded to this survey.
Broad consensus forecast that UK will remain in the EU
Question 1: How do you expect the UK electorate to vote in the 23rd
June 2016 referendumon EU
membership?
75% of the 130 respondents surveyed forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK
remaining in the European Union in the 23rd June referendum (see Figure 1). That ratio jumps to 81%
when the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded.
Figure 1: 75% of survey respondents forecast that UK will remain in the EU
Source: www.olivierdesbarres.co.uk; Note: Number of survey respondents: 130 (one respondent skipped this question)
Popular opinion polls have “remain” marginally ahead of “leave” but many caveats
By comparison, the latest poll-of-polls conducted by What UK Thinks, which averages the results of the last
six phone and on-line opinion polls, has the “remain” vote on 52% and “leave” vote on 48% (Figure 2)2
. The
2 The question posed is the one approved by the Electoral Commission for the actual referendum: “Should the United
Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Will stay Will leave Don’t know
Percentage of respondents who expect the UK to stay/leave the EU

3. 3
“leave” vote has only been ahead of the “remain” vote once since September and has on averaged trailed
the “remain” vote by about 4.2 percentage points (see Figure 3).
Figure 2: “Remain” vote slightly ahead of “leave”
vote
Figure 3: “Remain” vote has been ahead by an
average 4.2pp since early September
Source: What UK Thinks
*Note: 3 (2 online, 1 phone) polls by ICM, 1 (online) poll
by YouGov, 1 (online) poll by TNS and 1 (phone) poll by
ORB. The most recent addition is a poll by YouGov that
was conducted between16 and 17 May.
Source: What UK Thinks
But caution is warranted, due amongst other factors to i) the large share of undecided voters, ii) the
importance of turnout, and iii) the difference in results between online and phone surveys.
The Daily Telegraph estimates that in the 100 EU referendum polls conducted since early September,
undecided voters accounted on average for 15%. While assumptions can be made about how they will
ultimately vote on referendum day, these undecided voters could swing the outcome either way.
Moreover, turnout may influence the referendum’s outcome with those who support the “leave” camp more
likely to definitely vote according to ORB. In its last poll conducted on 11-15th
May, ORB found that 53% of
respondents would vote “remain” – an increase of 2 percentage points from a poll conducted on 20-24th
April – and 39% backed “leave” – a 4 percentage point decrease. But this large gap shrinks considerably if
we take into account that 53% of “remain” voters and 62% of “leave” voters said they would definitely vote.
If only those voters are included, support for “remain” falls to 51% while support for “leave” rises to 45%
(see Figure 4).
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Sep 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 Mar 16 May 16
Remain Leave
Poll of polls, % of respondents*
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 Mar 16 May 16
Poll of polls, percentage point gap
between "remain" and "leave" votes
Poll of polls, percentage point gap
between "remain" and "leave" votes
Average +4.2pp

4. 4
Figure 4: Those who will definitely vote are more likely to support “leave” camp, according to ORB
Source: ORB
Finally, since the start of September, phone polls suggest an average 17 percentage point lead for “remain”
while online polls have it at just 2 percentage points according to the Daily Telegraph3
. In the latest ICM
poll conducted on 13-15th
May, the phone poll had the “remain” vote comfortably ahead of the “leave” vote
but the online poll had the “leave” vote slightly ahead (see Figure 5).
Figure 5: Referendum outcome differs based on whether phone or web-based poll
Source: What UK Thinks, Guardian ICM
Betting companies’ pricing points to comfortable “remain” victory
The inherent limitations of opinion polls were made evident in the 2015 general elections, with none of the
polls predicting the incumbent Conservative Party’s comfortable victory. As a result there has been
increasing focus on betting companies’ odds of a “remain” or “leave” victory.
After all, while those polled may have a reason not to declare their true voting intentions, they are more
likely to put their money where their mouths are when real financial gains (or losses) are at stake. Prices
offered by the main UK bookmakers point to a clear “remain” victory, with odds of 1/4 for the UK to remain
in the EU and 11/4 for the UK to leave the EU.
3 As there have been three times as many online polls as phone polls, the weighted average of the difference between
the “remain” and “leave” votes is skewered towards the online poll results.
Date Remain in EU Exit EU Gap (pp) Undecided
11-15 May 53 39 14 9
20-24 April 51 43 8 6
Date Remain in EU Exit EU Gap (pp) Undecided
11-15 May 51 45 6 4
20-24 April 51 46 5 3
All respondents (%)
Respondents who will definitely vote (%)
Company Date Type Remain in EU Leave EU Undecided Remain in EU
(exc undecided)
Leave EU (exc
undecided)
What UK Thinks 6-17 May Av. of 6 latest polls1 52% 48%
Guardian ICM 13-15 May phone 47% 39% 14% 55% 45%
on-line 43% 47% 10% 48% 52%

5. 5
My core scenario remains a victory for “remain” vote
Any forecast of the referendum outcome remains tentative but I maintain my core scenario expressed in
What to expect in 2016 – same, same but worse (19 January 2016) that Prime Minister Cameron will
secure a “remain” vote, premised on:
1. The greater domestic support for the “remain” vote from the political and business sphere as well as
international community, which will count when campaigning really intensifies in coming weeks.
2. The UK’s electorate’s conservative nature. The “yes” vote in Scotland’s 2014 referendum on UK
membership suggests that the collective desire to be part of a union should not be under-estimated,
while the incumbent Conservative Party’s convincing win in the May 2015 elections underlines the
electorate’s affinity for continuity, rather than the unknown.
Two-thirds of respondents think UK leaving EU would be negative for British economy
Question 2: If the UK electorates votes in favour of the UK leaving the EU, do you think this will be
positive, negative or neutral for the British economy medium-term?
65% of the 131 respondents forecast that the UK leaving the EU would be negative for the British economy
medium-term. 19% forecast that it would be positive and 15% that it would be neutral. One respondent did
not have a view (see Figure 6). This is broadly in line with the assessment presented by Prime Minister
Cameron, Chancellor Osborne and the “remain” camp, as well as the Bank of England and International
Monetary Fund.
In its latest quarterly inflation report, the Bank of England concluded that “a vote to leave the EU could have
material economic effects – on the exchange rate, on demand and on the economy’s supply potential […].
Aggregate demand would also likely fall, relative to our forecast, in the face of tighter financial conditions,
lower asset prices, and greater uncertainty about the UK’s trading relationships. Households could defer
consumption, and firms could delay investment. Global financial conditions could also tighten, generating
potential negative spillovers to foreign activity that, in turn, could dampen demand for UK”.
The IMF, in its latest Article IV Consultation, concluded that if the UK remained in the EU GDP growth
would rebound in H2 2016. Conversely, the UK leaving the EU would:
 Lead to a protracted period of heightened uncertainty and financial market volatility;
 Substantially depress UK productivity, trade, output, incomes, consumption, investment and fiscal
revenues;
 Potentially weaken UK equity and house prices; and
 Potentially increase UK borrowing costs for households and businesses and inflation.

6. 6
Figure 6: 65% of respondents think that the UK leaving the EU would be negative for the British economy
Source: www.olivierdesbarres.co.uk; Note: Number of survey respondents 131
Respondents forecast asymmetric sterling reaction-function
Question 3: If the UK electorate votes in favour of the UK leaving the EU, how do you expect
sterling to perform between the referendumand end-year against the currencies of the UK’s key
competitors?
Figure 7: 81% of respondents forecast sterling to depreciate post-referendum should UK leave EU
Source: www.olivierdesbarres.co.uk;Note: Number of survey respondents 131
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Positive Negative Neutral Don’t know
Percentage of respondents who think the UK leaving the EU would be positive/negative/neutral for
the British economy medium-term
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Appreciate Depreciate Neither
Percentage of respondents who think that if the UK leaves the EU, sterling will
appreciate/depreciate/neither against trading partner currencies

7. 7
Out of 131 respondents, 81% forecast that if the electorate votes for the UK to leave the EU, sterling would
depreciate between the referendum and end-year against the currencies of the UK’s key competitors (see
Figure 7). Only 8% forecast that sterling would appreciate, while 6% thought that the currency would be
broadly stable. 6% did not express a view. If the 8 respondents who did not have a view are excluded, the
percentage of respondents expecting sterling to depreciate rises to 86%.
Question 4: If the UK electorate votes in favour of the UK remaining in the EU, how do you expect
sterling to perform between the referendumand end-year against the currencies of the UK’s key
competitors?
Out of 127 respondents, only 54% forecast that if the UK remains in the EU sterling would appreciate (see
Figure 8). 11% forecast that sterling would depreciate, while 27% thought the currency would be broadly
stable. 8% did not express a view. If the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded, the
percentage of respondents expecting sterling to appreciate rises to 59%.
Figure 8: 54% of respondents forecast sterling to appreciate post-referendum should UK remain in the EU
Source: www.olivierdesbarres.co.uk; Note: Number of survey respondents 127
Sterling likely to appreciate post referendum if UK votes to remain in EU
These survey results tend to back my view, expressed in What to expect in 2016 – same, same but worse,
that the electorate will vote for the UK to remain in the EU and that the lifting of this uncertainty will see a
reasonably competitive sterling appreciate.
There has been mounting evidence that domestic and foreign companies have curtailed or delayed
investment in the UK, with domestic companies also prone to freezing hiring a as a direct result of the
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Appreciate Depreciate Neither Don’t know
Percentage of respondents who think that if the UK stays in the EU, sterling will
appreciate/depreciate/neither against trading partner currencies

8. 8
uncertainty associated with the referendum outcome. In UK referendum on EU membership – darkness
before dawn (26 February 2016), I highlighted eight layers of uncertainty: 1. How the electorate will vote; 2.
The (un)reliability of opinion polls; 3. The lack of political unity; 4. The lack of precedent; 5. The lack of
explicit contingency plans; 6. Prime Minister Cameron’s future; 7. The possibility of another Scottish
referendum; and 8. The possibility of a second EU referendum if the result on 23rd
June is too close to call.
UK gross fixed capital formation, seasonally-adjusted, contracted 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2015 – the
largest contraction in over three years (see Figure 9). Similarly, business investment shrunk 2% qoq in Q4
2015 – the second largest quarterly contraction in seven years – which wiped out the growth in the previous
two quarters. Delayed or curtailed investment has in all likelihood contributed to business and consumer
confidence falling to multi-month lows (see Figure 10), which in turn depressed consumer spending,
investment and GDP growth in Q1 20164
(see Figure 11).
A “remain” victory on 23rd
June would remove this uncertainty with a return to the norm and likely unlock
delayed or curtailed investments in capital and labour. In the event of a “leave” victory, there would still be a
great deal of uncertainty near-term as ultimately there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and
thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on.
Figure 9: Business investment and gross fixed
capital formation growth slowed sharply in Q4…
Figure 10: …and business and consumer
confidence has fallen further in recent months…
Source: Office of National Statistics Source: Gfk, Markit Economics
Moreover, the British economy is likely to benefit at the margin from the lagged impact of a more
competitive currency even if weak global demand is likely to dull any narrowing of the UK trade deficit.
Sterling’s trade weighted index (TWI) has recovered slightly in the past few weeks, but is still down 9% from
its seven-and-a-half-year high recorded nine months ago according to my estimates (see Figure 12).
4 A breakdown of Q1 2016 GDP is due for release on 26th May
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Q2
2013
Q1
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Q1
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Gross fixed capital formation
quarter-on-quarter % change
(seasonally adjusted)
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Apr-14 Dec-14 Aug-15 Apr-16
UK manufacturing PMI (left scale)
UK consumer confidence (GfK)

9. 9
Figure 11: …likely depressing UK GDP growth in
Q1 2016
Figure 12: Sterling TWI is still down 9% from
multi-year high in August
Source: Office of National Statistics Source: investing.com
Finally, sterling’s depreciation should, all other things being equal, have an inflationary impact (as the
sterling-cost of imports rises). This may be sufficient for the Bank of England to communicate a less dovish,
if not more hawkish, policy stance even if core inflation, which has been running at 1.2-1.5% year-on-year,
is unlikely to become an issue in the near-term.
Post-referendum rally likely blunted by underlying UK imbalances and dovish central bank
However, any currency rally is likely to be moderate until the government addresses structural deficiencies,
including a large current account deficit, low productivity, still-high levels of household debt and fiscal
deficits and weak wage growth, and the Bank of England turns more hawkish. The fact that survey
respondents are less confident about sterling appreciating in a “remain” scenario than they are about
sterling depreciating in a “leave” scenario may indeed be due to these underlying weaknesses which a
“remain” vote will not fully address.
Specifically, the UK is running a record-high current account deficit (see Figure 13), as a result of a
widening of the goods and services trade deficit, a decrease in receipts from direct investment and portfolio
investment abroad and an increase in payments to foreign direct investors.
At the same time the Bank of England is showing no sign of wanting to hike its record-low policy rate of
0.5%, in the face of tepid wage and consumer price inflation. While the UK unemployment rate has been
stable near a record-low of 5.1% since October, growth in real earnings (including bonuses) has slowed
sharply in recent months, suggesting there is still a fair degree of slack in the UK labour market (see Figure
14). This is likely contributing to modest core-inflation which fell to 1.2% year-on-year in April and remains
steady around its 2-year average.
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2012
Q2
2013
Q1
2013
Q4
2014
Q3
2015
Q2
2016
Q1
Household consumption GDP
quarter-on-quarter % change
(seasonally adjusted)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Apr 10 Sep 11 Feb 13 Jul 14 Dec 15
GBP vs other key trading
partner currencies
GBP/EUR
Index (23 April 2010 = 100)

10. 10
Figure 13: UK current account has risen
sharply…even with the UK in the EU
Figure 14: Despite near record-low unemployment
rate, UK real earnings growth has slowed sharply
Source: Office of National Statistics Source: Office of National Statistics
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4-quarter rolling, GBP billions
% of GDP, right scale
UK current account deficit
(seasonally adjusted)
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Jan 07 Feb 09 Mar 11 Apr 13 May 15
Real weekly earnings inc bonuses,
% year-on-year
Unemployment rate, % (right scale)