Workshop on Metrics for Climate Transition and Net-Zero GHGs in Finance -
Supporting climate policy goals and avoiding greenwashing
Keeping it real: delivering net-zero
outcomes for climate action
Prof. Joeri Rogelj – 22 February 2023 – Paris

We are way off track
Confusing messages about what current climate action brings
We are almost there
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj

The embarrassing gap between policies and promises
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: (CONFIDENTIAL) Do not cite / do not quote. Rogelj et al (Forthcoming)
• Material removed – STUDY FORTHCOMING

NET-ZERO FUNDAMENTALS: CO2 and all greenhouse gases (GHGs)
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al, 2021, Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00662-3

Achieving the net zero GHG aim of the Paris Agreement will lead
global warming to peak and then slowly decline
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al, 2021, Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00662-3

NET-ZERO FUNDAMENTALS: be clear what you’re talking about
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Carbon neutrality vs Climate neutrality
- Concept emerged in scientific literature
- Net zero CO2 emissions (but not always)
- Requirement to stop warming
- Concept emerged in policy literature
- Net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
- Achieves more than carbon neutrality

Without clarity, net-zero targets are empty promises
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al, 2021, Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00662-3

Key clarifications for setting net-zero targets
Three areas:
• Scope
• Adequacy & fairness
• Long-term roadmap
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al, 2021, Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00662-3

Key clarifications for setting net-zero targets: SCOPE
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al, 2021, Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00662-3

Key clarifications for setting net-zero targets: SCOPE
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al, 2021, Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00662-3

Key clarifications for setting net-zero targets: FAIRNESS
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al, 2021, Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00662-3

Key clarifications for setting net-zero targets: ROADMAP
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al, 2021, Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00662-3

More recommendations
for non-state actors

Takeaways for the financial sector
• Setting sound targets:
rigor and integrity
• With progress transparently
measured, reported & verified:
progress is not optional
• In real time:
near-term implementation is key
• Net-zero is only the beginning
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj

Post-workshop reflection – Joeri ROGELJ
1. Physics:
current comparison pathways all give a low
(less than 50%) chance of effectively limiting
warming to 1.5°C
2. Pathways chosen:
diversity of pathways considered is key for
benchmarking as pathway assumptions
represent policy choices not yet made
3. Portfolio of issues:
look beyond climate and towards SDGs.
Myopically focussing on climate only creates
a sustainability transition risk that
unsustainable climate measures started today
are suddenly discontinued in the future when
SDGs rise further on the societal agenda
Keeping net-zero targets real
22/02/2023 – J. Rogelj
What do we compare to?
And what are the chances that this
isn’t the right choice?
The chances of having to strongly
adjust one’s path are quite high
because of:
j.rogelj@imperial.ac.uk