Wildfire-Workshop-Presentation-Colin-Prentice

•

0 gefällt mir•166 views

OECD Environment

Umweltschutz

Wildfire and climate change –
a hazy outlook?
Iain Colin Prentice
Imperial College London
Director, The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires,
Environment and Society

Basic principles
• Primary production => fuel builds up
• Hot and dry weather => fuel dries
• Ignition source => fuel starts to burn
Most fires don’t spread.
Ignition isn’t “the cause” of fire.
Crops and grazing can stop fires spreading.

To make valid predictions we need…
• Data
• Models
• Skill (models should predict the data – at
least!)

What do we have?
• A very short (< 20 years) global record, with
large differences between “products”
• Models based on limited evidence, with large
differences between models
• Models with limited skill at predicting the
data we have

Model responses to fuel and moisture
Teckentrup et al. (2019) Biogeosciences

Model responses to population
Teckentrup et al. (2019) Biogeosciences
suppression -> duration suppression -> size
ignition -> probability of fire start

Models vs data: half full or half empty?
Forkel et al. (2019)
Biogeosciences

Charcoal over 2000 years
Marlon et al. (2008) Nature Geoscience

Charcoal, biomass-burning
CH4 and temperature
Harrison et al. (2018)
Earth System Dynamics

Recent downward trend
Andela et al.
(2017) Science

Science directions
• Improvement of data products
• Improvement of models, especially for
vegetation properties
• New mechanisms needed, to ensure real
progress in either field!

Policy dimensions
Wildfire is not going away, and will increase in
many regions!
1) Address climate change (but not by planting
trees!)
2) Re-think insurance and spatial planning –
flammable vegetation and people don’t mix!

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Ähnlich wie Wildfire-Workshop-Presentation-Colin-Prentice

Mario Molina: Energy and Climate Change

North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation

This presentation is a 3-hour training to provide information on health and safety concerns in building materials, with a particular focus on high performance and net zero energy strategies. We identify some of the major hazards found in the built environment and how to research safer alternatives to maximize energy efficiency and to protect human health. Presented on October 24, 2014 for Build It Green in Oakland, California by Cate Leger, Principal, Leger Wanaselja Architecture, and Melanie Loftus, Healthy Materials Consultant.

Healthy Net Zero Homes

Melanie Loftus

UCL IEDE urban heatwave vulnerability mapping

Anna Mavrogianni

Future of energy

Michel Saloff Coste

How to avoid a climate disaster

Vishal Kirti

NYSERnet july 28

Bill St. Arnaud

Sustainable Uplands Results Presentation

Mark Reed

Thesis. LPWI

Gavin Stanley

Sustainable Eco n+

Meemo Banjare

High Quality Methane Production through biomass gasification

Muhammad Nauman Yousaf

Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...

OECD Environment

3 Environmental Impact: The Big Picture The planet’s population is now approaching 7 billion—an increase ofabout 5 billion people in just the past five decades—and the total pop-ulation is likely to increase by another 1 billion people in the next decade. Analysts now expect that the ranks of the middle class (people who may want your products!) will swell by as many as 1.8 billion in the next 12 years.1 You’ve probably seen similar projections, and even though you know intellectually that an extra couple of billion people represents a sustainabil- ity challenge, it can be hard to relate those huge numbers to your job. So, to make the scale more real, let’s work through what it would mean to give the next 1 billion middle-class citizens of the world a single 60-watt incandes- cent light bulb. Each bulb weighs about 0.7 ounce, including the packaging, so a billion of them weigh around 20,000 metric tons, or about the same as 15,000 Toyota Prius cars. As an engineer, you know that multiplying anything by 109 makes a big number, but even from this simple case you start to get a feel for how dramatic the scale is in real-world terms. Next, let’s turn on those light bulbs. If they’re all on at the same time, they would consume 60,000 megawatts of electricity—and that would require 120 new 500-megawatt power plants to keep them burning. Luckily, our imagi- nary middle-class consumers will use their light bulbs only four hours per day, so we’re down to 10,000 megawatts at any given moment. However, that means we’ll still need 20 new 500-megawatt power plants. If coal-fired, each of those plants burns 1.43 million tons of coal per year.2 That doesn’t sound like a good idea from an eco perspective, so let’s try solar power for our light bulbs. If we use current commercially available solar 31 technology, we’ll need roughly 50 square kilometers of solar panels, or more than one-third the land area of either San Francisco or Boston. Hmmm. So, let’s try wind power instead… We’ll still need one-tenth of all the wind power produced in the world in 2007, just to keep those new light bulbs on for a few hours a day. This is the scale we’re dealing with when we’re talking about a billion consumers of any product or service. Thousands or millions of tons of material. Thousands or millions of megawatts. And it keeps going. Think about the raw materials consumed to make those light bulbs, the energy consumed by com- muting factory workers, the packaging materials, the ships and trucks used for distribution, and ultimately, the waste that is involved when we have a billion light bulbs. And if we’re having trouble delivering a single light bulb to a billion people sustainably, what happens when these billion people want stoves, refrigerators, TVs, computers, cell phones, radios, and cars? What happens when they want street lights, low-cost air travel, hotels, and restaurants? You get the idea. As engineers, we are already challenged by the environmen.

3Environmental ImpactThe Big PictureThe planet’s .docx

gilbertkpeters11344

Koomey on Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial Challenge

Jonathan Koomey

Go Green at work

Goodzuma

Affordable warmth presentation

fchictsupport

01_Microbio590B_intro_2022.pdf

Kristen DeAngelis

Toward a Climate Literate, Energy Aware, Science Savvy Society

Claus Berg

Alternative Energy Facts - Between a ROC and a Green Place

Brian Catt

carbon footprint.pptx

Shreyas Satpute

Climate Change and the New Industrial Revolution

Glenn Klith Andersen

Ähnlich wie Wildfire-Workshop-Presentation-Colin-Prentice (20)

Mario Molina: Energy and Climate Change

Healthy Net Zero Homes

UCL IEDE urban heatwave vulnerability mapping

Future of energy

How to avoid a climate disaster

NYSERnet july 28

Sustainable Uplands Results Presentation

Thesis. LPWI

Sustainable Eco n+

High Quality Methane Production through biomass gasification

Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...

3Environmental ImpactThe Big PictureThe planet’s .docx

Koomey on Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial Challenge

Go Green at work

Affordable warmth presentation

01_Microbio590B_intro_2022.pdf

Toward a Climate Literate, Energy Aware, Science Savvy Society

Alternative Energy Facts - Between a ROC and a Green Place

carbon footprint.pptx

Climate Change and the New Industrial Revolution

Mehr von OECD Environment

GREEN Action Task Force - Full Presentations.pdf

OECD Environment

The seminar on Problem Formulation for the Risk Assessment of Biopesticides stemmed from a previous CRP-sponsored event on Innovating Microbial Pesticide Testing that identified the need for an overarching guidance document to determine when in vivo tests are necessary. Problem Formulation, a common practice in pesticide risk assessment, was highlighted as a useful approach for addressing uncertainties in data requirements for biopesticides. The seminar featured presentations from various perspectives, including industry, regulatory bodies, and academia. Topics included the history and principles of Problem Formulation, industry perspectives on Problem Formulation and how it is applied internally for microbial pesticides, regulatory approaches, and specific case studies. The seminar provided an overview of the challenges, considerations, and potential solutions in harmonising Problem Formulation for biopesticide risk assessment. It emphasised the need for collaboration and discussion to develop Problem Formulation guidance for biopesticides.

Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...

OECD Environment

CLE Contribution on the Assessment of Innovative Biochemicals in the EU Statu...

OECD Environment

Additional Considerations for Pesticide Formulations Containing Microbial Pes...

OECD Environment

Role of genome sequencing (WGS) in microbial biopesticides safety assessment ...

OECD Environment

Considerations for Problem Formulation for Human Health Safety Assessments of...

OECD Environment

How to Identify and Quantify Mixtures What is Essential to Know for Risk Asse...

OECD Environment

APVMA outcome-focussed approach to data requirements to support registration ...

OECD Environment

The U.S. Perspective on Problem Formulation for Biopesticides: Shannon BORGES

OECD Environment

Problem formulation for environmental risk assessment – Finnish case study: ...

OECD Environment

Problem formulation for environmental risk assessment in the context of EC Re...

OECD Environment

Canadian Perspective on Problem Formulation for Biopesticides: Emma Babij

OECD Environment

Problem Formulation as an Ecological Testing and Assessment Tool for Microbia...

OECD Environment

History, principles and use for biopesticide risk assessment: Boet Glandorf a...

OECD Environment

CCXG global forum, April 2025, Key takeaways

OECD Environment

CCXG global forum, April 2024, Mentimeter results

OECD Environment

CCXG global forum, April 2024, Chiara Falduto

OECD Environment

CCXG global forum, April 2024, Siddharth Singh

OECD Environment

CCXG global forum, April 2024, Geraldine Ang

OECD Environment

CCXG global forum, April 2024, Raphaël Jachnik

OECD Environment

Mehr von OECD Environment (20)