Green Hydrogen opportunities for Emerging and Developing Economies webinar, 14 June 2022, OECD headquarters, Paris

1. OECD Webinar, 14.06.2022
International H2 Value Chains
A German Perspective
©
Axel
Biewer

2. 2
Global Alliance Powerfuels, Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena) 2021, S. 8

3. GLOBAL DEMAND 2050
• Acil Allen Report - High
• BP Energy Outlook 2020 – Net Zero
• IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 - SDS
• Shell - Sky Scenario
• Powerfuels in a Renewables World
• Hydrogen Economy Outlook - Strong Policy
• Acil Allen Report - Medium
• BP Energy Outlook 2020 – Rapid
• Hydrogen Council - 2DS
• World Energy Council - Unfinished Symphony
• Acil Allen Report - Low
• World Energy Council - Modern Jazz
• Hydrogen Economy Outlook - Weak Policy
< 1,8 °C
1,8 – 2,3 °C
> 2,3 °C
Quelle: WEC 2021

4. PTX DEMAND IN GERMANY
[TWh]
Spannweite der
Szenarien
(Elektrifizierung/Gase):
Ariadne 2021 (PtX) &
BMWi 2021 (H2)
Klimaneutralität 2045:
Agora 2021, Ariadne 2021, BDI
2021, dena 2021
Klimaneutralität 2050:
BMWi 2021
64 69 80 100 110
223
384
422
542
657
700 690
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Agora
2021
dena
2021
Ariadne
2021
BDI 2021 BMWi
2020
(NWS)
Agora
2021
dena
2021
Agora
2021
BDI 2021 dena
2021
Ariadne
2021
BMWi
2021
2030 2040 2045 2050
PtX H2

5. Produktionskapazität grüner H2
Exportvolumina grüner H2
Australien
2025: 0,0265-0,3448 MtH2/a
2040: 0,6213-3,1804 MtH2/a
Chile
2025: 0,21 MtH2/a
2040: 2,1 MtH2/a
Kanada
2050: 25-35 MtH2/a
GKR
2050: 50-100 MtH2/a
Türkei
2050: 1,5-1,9 MtH2/a
Russland
2040: 0,7-7 MtH2/a
USA
2050: 41 MtH2/a
GKR
2050: 20-50 MtH2/a
Marokko
2030: 2-3 MtNH3/a
Ukraine
2030: 0,63 MtH2/a
Produktionskapazität grünes NH3
Globale PtX-Potenziale
IEE
2021
3780 Mt H2
LUT
2020
1290 Mt H2
Jülich
2020-
2022
4950 Mt H2
in Westafrika (nur
H2)
Weniger belastbare Daten
BILATERAL COOPERATION

6. The window of opportunity: EU 2030 target requires fast,
strong shift from project announcement to implementation
Global Alliance Powerfuels
8
Capacity per project status Capacity required by EU target
80% of 2023 projects have no
final investment decision
Estimated 2023 production
capacities are only 0.4% of
what is needed by 2030
If EU target is to be met, installed
electrolysis capacity needs growth of
70% per year
≈
equivalent to the growth of solar PV in
its best times
Assuming 30% of evaluated
projects to be implemented
Electrolyzer
Capacity
[GW],
EU-27
Source: PIK

7. GLOBAL FUNDING IS GAINING MOMENTUM
>10 5 1
Number of funding programmes per country
0 bil. €
2 bil. €
4 bil. €
6 bil. €
8 bil. €
10 bil. €
12 bil. €
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Number of programmes
Volume
Types of funding and covered
expenses
Number of programmes
and total approx. volume
per lifecycle stage
87%
5%
8%
90%
10%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Supported activities Types of funding
OPEX
CAPEX
Loan
Grant (market-dependent)
Grant (fixed)
Report online:
https://www.powerfuels.org/news/news/report-
public-funding-for-powerfuels-projects/

8. How to move ahead?
De-Risking Powerfuels Projects
• Project costs are mainly financing costs, and capital is not very scarce in
principle. Many projects are mature, but pre FID/construction
 they are either unviable or too risky
• Governments can…
• Support de-risking on supply (guarantees, permitting)
• De-risking offtake (CfDs)
• Create clear framework for „green“ property (sustainability standards)
• Fast-track infrastructure deployment/expansion for „new“ molecules: ports &
downstream
• Industry Alliances: Exchanging best practices, benchmarking/data
collection & supporting Infrastructure

9. Kilian Crone
Team Leader International H2 Economy
T: +49 (0)30 66 777 - 732
kilian.crone@dena.de
12