1.
©OECD/IEA2016
The role of energy in limiting
negative environmental
feedbacks
Dr. Timur Gül, OECD, 24 October 2016

2.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Context
 Energy is at the center of economic activity, and demand keeps rising
 Global energy demand is set to rise by one-third to 2040
 Many of the root causes – and cures – of environmental problems are in
the energy sector
 Energy is the main driver of climate change: at least two-thirds of global
greenhouse gas emissions are from the energy sector
 Fossil-fuels cover around 80% of global energy use and are the main
source of CO2 emissions
 Energy production & use is an important contributor to emissions of
methane and nitrous oxide
 Energy is key driver of air pollution, the fourth largest human health risk
 only 8% of energy production is combustion free, and more than half of
the rest has no effective emissions control technology

3.
© OECD/IEA 2016 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA.
Pledges submitted
OECD Asia
Oceania
2.2 Gt
Russia and Caspian
2.0 Gt
Europe
3.8 Gt
North America
6.1 Gt
South America
1.2 Gt
Africa
1.1 Gt
Middle East
2.0 Gt
1.7 Gt
Other AsiaIndia
1.9 Gt
China
8.6 Gt
Efforts to address climate change
are underway
The Paris Agreement is set to come into force: implementation of the unconditional
pledges would limit global temperature rise to 2.7 °C by 2100.

4.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Energy efficiency & renewables account for the bulk of the additional emission
reductions required for a 2 °C pathway, but all forms of clean energies are needed
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt
New Policies Scenario
(including INDCs)
450 Scenario
17.9 Gt
Energy efficiency
Fuel & technology
switching in end-uses
Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
Other
Technology solutions
towards 2 °C

5.
© OECD/IEA 2016
What is the cost of emissions mitigation?
Cumulative world energy sector investment by sector & scenario, 2015-2040
The 450 Scenario requires changing the investment balance across fuels & sectors,
and across supply & demand, rather than the scale of the global energy investment
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
NPS 450
Trilliondollars(2014)
Fuel supply Power supply End-use efficiency
NPS 450 NPS 450
Biofuels
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
T&D
Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
Buildings
Transport
Industry

6.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Air pollution is an energy problem
Pollutant emissions, 2015
Energy is the single most important cause of emissions of all main pollutants;
outdoor air pollution alone is linked to 3 million premature deaths today
81 Mt108 Mt 41 Mt
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5)Sulfur dioxide (SO2)Nitrogen oxides (NOX)
>99%
Non-energyEnergy-related
>99%>99% >99% 85%
Coal Oil Gas Bioenergy Other
Biomass
43%
Coal
43%
Oil
61%

7.
© OECD/IEA 2016
MexicoSouth
Africa
Brazil
Thousands
200
100
Indonesia
50
150
The death toll keeps rising…
Premature deaths due to outdoor pollution in selected regions
Despite planned policies premature deaths increase from 3 to 4.5 million in 2040
2015
Additional
deaths in
2040
400
1 200
IndiaChina
Thousands
1 600
800

8.
© OECD/IEA 2016
4
8
Mt
…although action is being taken
in many parts of the world
Policies are successful to decouple pollutant emissions from energy demand
growth to 2040; but the air pollution problem remains far from being solved
Change in energy demand and pollutants to 2040
Mtoe
Mt
400
800
1 200
Mtoe
4
Mt
India
400
800
Mtoe
AfricaChina
400
800
1 200
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
Fossil fuels
& bioenergy
Wind, solar
& other
Energy demand
(Mtoe)
SO2
NOX
Pollutants
(Mt)
PM2.5

9.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Selected pollution mitigation
technologies: industry and power
Energy sector decarbonisation can reduce air pollutant emissions; but clean energy in
the context of air pollution has additional options.

10.
© OECD/IEA 2016
The IEA Clean Air Strategy
A 7% increase in investment can save over 3 million lives in 2040, while providing
energy access for all, lower energy import bills and leading to a peak in CO2 by 2020
Cumulative investment
20
40
60
80
100
Trilliondollars(2014)
1
2
3
4
5
Millions
2015-2040
Premature deaths from
outdoor air pollution
Additional investment
in the Clean Air Scenario
Lives saved in the
Clean Air Scenario
2040

11.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Conclusions
 The energy sector is the route cause of many environmental problems;
as such, it holds the key to solving them
 Many technology solutions for addressing environmental issues are
known; it is to policy to ensure they are being deployed
 Policy efforts are underway to mitigate some of the most pressing
environmental problems, but are not yet sufficient for solving them
 A well-designed energy sector strategy will ensure that multiple policy
goals are being considered and lock-in is avoided
 IEA will continue to promote integrated policy approaches as it
strengthens its role as a global hub for clean & efficient energy