Presentation- Fifth meeting of the Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation - Marta Arbinolo & Catherine Gamper

1. ADAPTING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE IN
THE MANAGEMENT OF EXTREME
WILDFIRES
Marta Arbinolo and Catherine Gamper
OECD Environment Directorate
TFCCA Meeting, 28 November 2022

2. OECD work on wildfires: Context
Wildfire risk identified as a policy priority by countries:
strong demand to get guidance on this topic
OECD-Placard conference on wildfires in 2020
• 110+ experts from public and private sector and civil society
• focus on wildfire risk and the existing policy responses in the
context of climate change
Links with ongoing and future OECD work, e.g. on losses
and damages, adaptation measurement and IPAC, drought, air pollution,
risk management and financing, resilient infrastructure, etc.

3. OECD work on wildfires: Objectives
Contribute to improving countries’ understanding of extreme wildfire risk
under climate change and the ways they can adapt to changing risk patterns by:
• Characterising wildfire trends
• Identifying drivers, impacts and costs
• Assessing existing policy responses across countries
• Supporting policy reform with policy guidance
End goal: promote a paradigm shift in wildfire management,
bringing focus on prevention and adaptation

4. Activities under PWB 2021-22
4
In-depth review of 6 countries:
Australia, Chile, Costa Rica, Greece, Portugal, USA
Country case
studies
Review of wildfires science, trends, impacts, and costs
of extreme wildfires under climate change
Comprehensive
stock-take
Develop policy evaluation framework and review of
existing adaptation measures
Policy analysis
Policy recommendations to support adaptation
to wildfire risk
Policy guidance
Flagship
report
to be
published
in May
2023

5. 5
Emerging findings: Growing wildfire risk and climate change
Change in the number of extreme fire weather days (1979-2019)
Wildfire risk is complex and depends on
• Fire weather
• Fuel flammability
• Ignition
Climate change increases fire risk:
• Higher fire frequency and intensity
• Impacts on fire size, spread, duration
• New areas affected
• Longer fire season
• Higher uncertainty

6. 6
Emerging findings: Future risk under different climate scenarios
+1.5°C
RCP8.5
Projected changes in 2080–2099, as compared to 1981–2000
+2°C
Source: Xu et al., 2020.

7. Emerging findings: The need for a paradigm shift
Growing wildfire risk and their impacts pose major challenges
to countries: difficult to keep up with new fire patterns
Fire suppression alone is not sufficient
Climate change only adds to other major trends that
exacerbate wildfire risk and hamper wildfire management:
• WUI development
• Rural land abandonment
• Ageing rural populations

8. Emerging findings: Adapting to growing wildfire risk
Growing awareness of wildfire risk, the role of climate change, and
the need to increase efforts
Growing emphasis on prevention, preparedness, and risk reduction
• risk assessment is improving (e.g. hazard maps)
• better fuel management (e.g. fuel breaks, prescribed fires)
• promotion of active land management and traditional practices
• stricter land use regulations and building codes
• better preparedness (e.g. evacuation plans, monitoring systems)
• funding for wildfire risk prevention is increasing
Policy integration and coordination is improving
• plans for integrated fire management
• platforms for coordination and knowledge exchange

9. Emerging findings: Key challenges and policy gaps
Risk assessment
and awareness
• Assessing and mapping exposures and vulnerability
• Projecting future fire risk, especially at local level
• Building awareness of small private actors
Risk prevention and
preparedness
• Adapting regulations and practices; enforcing regulations
• Ensuring effective fuel management in private lands
• Improving emergency preparedness
• Focus post-fire practices on long-term resilience
Institutional set-up
Funding and capacity • Securing sufficient funding for prevention
• Securing sufficient human resources and technical
capacity at local level
• Lack of clarity on roles and responsibilities
• Low coordination and knowledge exchange

10. Next steps: Key milestones and timeline
Draft report
for countries’
written review
International
policy
dialogue
Launch of the
report
May
2023
January
2023
February
2023

11. Questions for discussion
• How do the emerging findings resonate with the work you are
doing in your country?
• Would you want the OECD to conduct further work on wildfires, and
if so what focus would you propose?
• Do you want to be more actively involved in OECD work on wildfires
going forward?

12. Thank you!
Marta.Arbinolo@oecd.org
Catherine.Gamper@oecd.org
https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/adaptation-task-force/