2.4 Agriculture's Role in Global Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Towards the Below 2 degrees celsius warming objective - Ben Henderson. Biodiversity Workshop 25 October 2017

1. AGRICULTURE’S ROLE IN
GLOBAL MITIGATION
TOWARDS THE BELOW 2°C
OBJECTIVE
Ben Henderson
OECD workshop - Biodiversity, Climate Change and Agriculture
October 25, 2017

2. Agricultural GHGs by broad region
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 2
Source: FAOStat data. (2017)
Report prepared for OECD by Blandford and Hassapoyannes (OECD, 2017)

3. Agricultural GHGs source and country
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 3
Agricultural source Australia Brazil China Ethiopia EU India Indonesia NZ USA
Enteric fermentation 33.2% 59.9% 28.4% 52.1% 38.6% 45.3% 12.4% 54.9% 34.5%
Manure management 3.4% 2.5% 10.5% 2.1% 15.6% 4.5% 4.4% 8.2% 12.2%
Rice cultivation 0.4% 0.7% 16.1% 0.1% 1.1% 15.3% 37.3% 0.0% 2.3%
Synthetic fertilizers 5.3% 5.9% 22.1% 1.4% 17.7% 17.3% 11.4% 5.2% 23.1%
Manure applied to soils 0.7% 2.7% 5.4% 0.8% 8.7% 2.4% 2.8% 1.2% 4.7%
Manure left on pasture 19.5% 23.3% 11.6% 36.5% 7.0% 10.3% 6.5% 29.3% 10.9%
Crop residues 2.0% 2.6% 5.0% 1.3% 4.9% 4.0% 3.6% 0.2% 8.2%
Cultivation of organic soils 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 5.9% 0.1% 20.9% 1.0% 2.8%
Burning - crop residues 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 1.0%
Burning - savanna 34.9% 1.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Source: FAOStat data. (2017)

4. Mitigation potential (AFOLU) by 2030
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 4
Source: Smith et al. (2014: 852).

5. Selection of mitigation options suitable
in specific countries
• Australia – fire management to lower emissions
from savannah burning
• Brazil – reduced deforestation emissions, grazing
land management
• Indonesia – prevent cultivation of & restore
organic soils, and reduce paddy rice emissions
• USA – reduce emissions from fertiliser use, and
use nitrification inhibitors
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 5

6. Agriculture’s “fair” share of global
mitigation responsibility?
• To meet 2oC target, global emissions in 2030 must fall by 26 GtCO2e per
year
• With equi-proportional reduction by all sectors, agricultural emissions
would need to decrease by two thirds, which is too high given the lack of low
cost mitigation options for agriculture and food security concerns
• Considering agriculture’s mitigation costs and maintenance of food security,
Wollenberg et al. (2016) estimated the sector’s contribution to be 1 GtCO2e
yr-1 of non-CO2 emissions ( ̴ 10% of direct agricultural GHGs)
• With current technology and C-price of $20 tCO2e-1, non-CO2 mitigation
compatible with food security, will only achieve up to 0.4 GtCO2e yr-1
• Therefore, either higher C-prices or other options needed (e.g. soil C
sequestration, reduced deforestation, dietary changes)
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 6

7. Mitigation policy issues
• Agricultural now part of mainstream global mitigation program
– (103 parties to Paris Agreement include agriculture in their NDCs)
• Additional efforts needed – aggregate effect of NDCs will not
prevent > 2oC warming
• OECD project on policy options to stimulate additional mitigation
efforts:
– First best policies (p-based and q-based market instruments)
– Second best policies
• GHG proxies (e.g. fertiliser, ruminants)
• Consumer tax (same rate for domestic and imported products)
– Accelerated technical change, combined with restrictions on forest
clearing
– Remove policy support for emitting commodities
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 7

8. For more information
• OECD (2017) – consultant report by Blandford and Hassapoyannes
“Agriculture’s role in global GHG mitigation towards the below 2oC warming
objective” - COM/TAD/CA/ENV/EPOC(2017)11
• Contact: ben.henderson@oecd.org
8
Trade and Agriculture Directorate