Rainer Münz's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Rainer Münz
Paris, February 25, 2015
Global Migration

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Yesterday’s and today’s
migration

3. 1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international
migrants increases
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population

4. Where do they come from?
Where do they go to?
International migrants by origin and destination, 1990,
2010, millions
Source: United Nations, Population Division

5. Magnet societies: EU, Asia,
US
2013
1990
International migrant stock by macro region, 1990 – 2013, in mn
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Top 10 emigration countries
Absolute number of emigrants, in millions, 2010
Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011
11.4
11.1
8.3
6.6
5.4
4.7
4.7
4.3
4.3
11.9
0 4 8 12
Mexico
India
Russian Federation
China
Ukraine
Bangladesh
Pakistan
United Kingdom
Philippines
Turkey

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Top 10 immigration countries
Number of foreign-born individuals, in millions,
2010
42.8
12.3
10.8
7.3
7.2
7.0
6.9
6.7
5.5
5.4
0 15 30 45
United States
Russian Federation
Germany
Saudi Arabia
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Australia
India
Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011

8. Today most migrants come from
middle- and low-income
countriesNet migration rates 2005-2010 (annual average per
1000)

9. Above income levels of US-$ 9,000 per
capita net-emigration recedes
Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants
(2005-10)
Data Source: UN; Erste Research

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Millions of migrants are
neither documented and
nor counted in our
statitstical data bases

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BANK AG
The example of Europe

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Source: Eurostat, UN DESA
Net migration in Europe 2001-
2009
Net migration, yearly average, per 1000
inhabitants
.
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
below -5%
-5% to -2%
above +5%

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Source: Eurostat and own calculations 2013
Net migration in Europe 2010-
2012
Net migration, yearly average, per 1000
inhabitants
.
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
below -5%
-5% to -2%
above +5%
Direction changed recently

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
There are millions of
people in need of
protection living in
Europe’s neighborhood.
Many more than the EU
member states will ever
be able and willing to
accommodate

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Can we project today’s
migration pattern into
the future?

16. 1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international migrants is
projected to increase further
203
0
Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population
United Nations, Population Division/DESA

17. 1990 2000 2010 2013
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
205
0
The number of international migrants is
projected to increase further
Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population

18. Net migratory flows to more
developed countries
1950-2010 (actual), 2010-2100 (different projections),
in mn
All more developed
countries
USA
xx xx
Source: Joel E. Cohen
UNPD
estimate
WPP2010
projection
Gravity model
Linear
model

19. Even for Europe we do not have
good data
European countries with largest net out and in-migration
2005-2009, by source
Rank Country EUROSTAT USCB UNPD WiC
1 Romania -904,615 -32,058 -46,342 -100,000
2 Lithuania -145,981 -12,801 -166,978 -36,000
3 Belarus -145,678 32,671 52,266 -51,000
4 Poland -85,558 -88,979 -60,268 55,000
5 Latvia -84,549 -25,675 -89,138 -10,000
6 Bulgaria -53,329 -135,993 -80,423 -50,000
7 Armenia -31,776 -92,399 -139,099 -75,000
8 Albania -28,818 -145,067 -170,893 -48,000
9 Estonia -17,556 -21,187 -13,612 0
10 Republic of
Moldova
-14,854 -196,149 -183,069 -172,000
10 Czech Republic 232,025 255,036 297,005 240,000
9 Sweden 249,653 250,997 263,075 265,000
8 Belgium 288,023 63,487 342,395 200,000
7 Switzerland 301,164 224,792 338,020 182,000
6 Turkey 361,867 224,053 -79,266 -49,000
5 France 490,483 415,630 593,334 500,000
4 Russian
Federation
1,055,101 1,479,888 2,471,475 1,135,000
3 Italy 1,364,695 1,747,460 1,993,177 1,999,000
2 United
Kingdom
1,369,091 961,339 928,982 1,021,000
1 Spain 2,645,920 2,496,953 2,416,659 2,250,000
Source: T. Buettner

20. Migration flows: Uncertain
past, uncertain future – Poland
Source: T. Buettner

21. Migration flows: Uncertain
past, uncertain future – Niger
Source: T. Buettner

22. Migration flows: Uncertain
past, uncertain future –
Philippines
Source: T. Buettner

23. Why does it matter?
Contribution of international migration to
population growth / decline by 2050 as
proportion of the total population in 2010
Per cent
Polynesia -45
Micronesia -21
Caribbean -14
Central America -10
Central Asia -8
Northern Africa -6
Western Africa -4
Melanesia -4
South-Central Asia -3
Southern Asia -3
Eastern Africa -2
Middle Africa -2
South-Eastern Asia -2
South America -2
Eastern Asia -1
Southern Africa 1
Eastern Europe 2
Western Asia 3
Southern Europe 8
Western Europe 10
Northern Europe 16
Northern America 20
Australia/New Zealand 36
Source: Francois Pelletier

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ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Thank you for your
attention!
rainer.muenz@erstegroup.com