Trends Shaping Education 2019
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Presentation made by Andreas Schleicher, Director for the OECD Directorate of Education and Skills, at the Education World Forum, 21st January 2019, London Did you ever wonder whether education has a role to play in preparing our societies for an age of artificial intelligence? Or what the impact of climate change might be on our schools, families and communities? Trends Shaping Education ( http://www.oecd.org/edu/trends-shaping-education-22187049.htm) examines major economic, political, social and technological trends affecting education. While the trends are robust, the questions raised in this book are suggestive, and aim to inform strategic thinking and stimulate reflection on the challenges facing education – and on how and whether education can influence these trends. This book covers a rich array of topics related to globalisation, democracy, security, ageing and modern cultures. The content for this 2019 edition has been updated and also expanded with a wide range of new indicators. Along with the trends and their relationship to education, the book includes a new section on future’s thinking inspired by foresight methodologies. This book is designed to give policy makers, researchers, educational leaders, administrators and teachers a robust, non specialist source of international comparative trends shaping education, whether in schools, universities or in programmes for older adults. It will also be of interest to students and the wider public, including parents.
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Trends Shaping Education 2019
- 1. STARTING STRONG Wollongong Andreas Schleicher Trends shaping education
- 2. The rise of the global middle class 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017 2023 2029 Headcount(billions) %ofworldpopulation World middle class share of world population World middle class World population Within the next decade the majority of the world population will consist of the middle class Estimates of the size of the global middle class, percentage of the world population (left axis) and headcount (right axis), 1950-2030 Source: Kharas, H. (2017), The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class, an update, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/global_20170228_global-middle-class.pdf. Kharas, H. (2010), The emerging middle class in developing countries, https://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf. Figure 1.2
- 3. Growing unequal Income gaps continues to grow Trends in real household incomes by percentile, OECD average, 1985-2015 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Bottom 10% Mean Median Top 10% Source: OECD (2018), A Broken Social Elevator? How to Promote Social Mobility, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264301085-en. Figure 2.1 Index 1985 = 1
- 4. More people on the move -30 20 70 120 170 220 270 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 Millionsofpeople Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania Estimates of international migrant stock by region of destination, 1990-2017 Source: United Nations (2017), "International migrant stock: The 2017 revision" (database), www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/. Figure 1.5
- 5. Security in a risky world Household savings and debt Household savings (% of disposable income, left axis) and household debt (% of disposable income, right axis), OECD average, 1970-2016 Source: OECD (2018), OECD National Accounts Statistics (database), https://stats.oecd.org/. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Debtas%ofdisposableincome Savingsas%ofdisposableincome Savings (left axis) Debt (right axis) Figure 3.9
- 6. Access to Access Number of mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, OECD average, 2009-2017 Source: OECD (2018), "Mobile broadband subscriptions" (indicator), https://doi.org/10.1787/1277ddc6-en. Figure 5.1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Numberofsubscriptions
- 7. 7 Digitalisation Democratizing Concentrating Particularizing Homogenizing Empowering Disempowering
- 8. 8 Digitalisation Democratizing Concentrating Particularizing Homogenizing Empowering Disempowering The post-truth world where reality becomes fungible • Virality seems privileged over quality in the distribution of information • Truth and fact are losing currency Scarcity of attention and abundance of information • Algorithms sort us into groups of like-minded individuals create echo chambers that amplify our views, leave us uninformed of opposing arguments, and polarise our societies
- 9. 15-year-olds feeling bad if not connected to the Internet (PISA) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 ChineseTaipei-2 Sweden-9 France-5 Portugal Greece Singapore-2 Thailand Macao(China)-7 Brazil-2 Spain UnitedKingdom Bulgaria HongKong(China) Korea-7 Belgium-4 Denmark-4 Croatia-5 Israel-10 NewZealand-4 Netherlands-3 Uruguay Hungary4 Australia OECDaverage-3 DominicanRepublic Ireland-7 Poland-3 CostaRica3 Lithuania Japan-5 Mexico Russia-8 CzechRepublic Italy Peru Colombia4 Finland-6 Chile Latvia SlovakRepublic B-S-J-G(China)11 Switzerland Austria-3 Luxembourg Iceland Germany Estonia Slovenia % Boys Girls
- 10. Students are using more time online outside school on a typical school day (PISA) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Chile39 Sweden56 Uruguay33 CostaRica31 Spain44 Italy40 Australia52 Estonia50 NewZealand51 Hungary43 Russia42 Netherlands48 Denmark55 SlovakRepublic40 CzechRepublic43 Austria42 Latvia46 Singapore45 Belgium44 Poland46 Iceland51 ECDaverage-2743 Ireland48 Croatia40 Portugal42 Finland48 Israel34 Macao(China)45 Switzerland40 Greece41 ongKong(China)39 Mexico30 Slovenia37 Japan31 Korea20 Minutes per day 2015 2012 Percentage of High Internet Users (spending 2 to 6 hours on line per day), during weekdays
- 11. The kind of things that are easy to teach are now easy to automate, digitize or outsource 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009 Routine manual Nonroutine manual Routine cognitive Nonroutine analytic Nonroutine interpersonal Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution
- 12. Combined registered users of Upwork and Freelancer Freeing up work? Sources: OECD (2017), OECD Employment Outlook 2017, https://doi.org/10.1787/empl_outlook-2017-en. Figure 5.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Millionusers
- 13. Mass self-communication and creative expression Individuals using the Internet (last 3 months) for uploading self-created content on sharing websites, 2008 and 2017 Source: OECD (2018), ICT Access and Usage by Households and Individuals (database), https://stats.oecd.org/. Figure 5.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 16-24 25-55 55-74 %ofinternetusers Age group 2008 2017
- 14. 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 Turkey Greece Chile Lithuania Israel United States Poland Russian Federation Ireland Slovak Republic England (UK) Northern Ireland (UK) Japan OECD average Slovenia Estonia Denmark Austria Australia Canada New Zealand Germany Czech Republic Norway Flanders (Belgium) Netherlands Sweden Finland Korea Singapore Level 2 Level 3 Level 2 Level 3 Skills to manage complex digital information Young adults (16-24 year-olds) Older adults (55-65 year-olds)
- 15. Education won the race with technology throughout history, but there is no automaticity it will do so in the future Inspired by “The race between te chnology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard) Industrial revolution Digital revolution Social pain Universal public schooling Technology Education Prosperity Social pain Prosperity The future will be about pairing the artificial intelligence of computers with the cognitive, social and emotional skills and values of humans
- 16. The growth in AI technologies 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Numberofpatents Number of patents in artificial intelligence technologies, 1991-2015 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2017: The digital transformation, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264268821-en. Figure 1.10
- 18. Living longer, living better 70 is the new 60 Total gains in life expectancy at birth, OECD countries, 2000-2016 Source: WHO (2018), Global Health Observatory (database), http://www.who.int/gho/en/. Figure 4.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Estonia Korea Turkey Ireland Slovenia Latvia Portugal CzechRepublic SlovakRepublic Denmark Hungary Poland Israel Luxembourg France OECDaverage Norway Spain Finland Austria Canada Switzerland UnitedKingdom NewZealand Netherlands Australia Belgium Italy Lithuania Germany Greece Japan Iceland Sweden Chile Mexico UnitedStates Years Gains in healthy life expectancy Additional gains in life expectancy
- 19. Participation in lifelong education and training by literacy level (Adults aged 25-65 years) 0 20 40 60 80 100 High literacy skills (4/5) Low literacy skills (1)%
- 20. Routine cognitive skills Complex ways of thinking, complex ways of doing, collective capacity Some students learn at high levels (sorting) All students need to learn at high levels Student inclusion Curriculum, instruction and assessment Standardisation and compliance High-level professional knowledge workers Teacher education ‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegial Work organisation Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholders Accountability Industrial systems World class systems When fast gets really fast, being slow to adapt makes education really slow
- 21. Andreas Schleicher Director for Education and Skills Find out more about our work at www.oecd.org –All publications –The complete micro-level database Email: Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org Twitter: SchleicherOECD Wechat: AndreasSchleicher
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Note: Income refers to real household disposable income. OECD average refers to the unweighted average of the 17 OECD countries for which data are available: Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. Some data points have been interpolated or use the value from the closest available year.
- Note: Northern America includes Bermuda, Canada, Greenland, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, USA and Mexico.
- Note: OECD average refers to the average of 32 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Estonia, Finland, France, United Kingdom, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxemburg, Latvia, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Sweden and the United States
- Note: Where the data for countries were not consistently available in the same years, figures from the closest year are used.
- Half of the jobs in the industrialised world are potentially automatable, because the things that are easy to teach and easy to test are also the things that are easy to automate, digitize and outsource.
- Notes: Includes extrapolated figures for Upwork based on most recent annual growth rates. Registered number of users for the two platforms combined.
- Note: The figure is based on average data for 26 OECD countries. These include Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom
- Goldin and Katz call this the race between technology and education.
- Note: Data refer to the number of IP5 patent families in artificial intelligence (AI), by filing date and inventor's country, using fractional counts. AI refers to the "Human interface" and "Cognition and meaning understanding" categories in the ICT patent taxonomy as described in Inaba and Squicciarini (2017). 2014 and 2015 figures are estimated based on available data for those years.
- Note: Countries are ranked in descending order by the average voting rates for the period 2010-18, covering national parliamentary elections from 2010 to the latest year with data available. Voting in Australia, Belgium and Luxembourg is compulsory. Vote was also compulsory in Chile until 2012 (the two elections comprised in this graph for the 2010s period, 2013 and 2017, were thus held under voluntary suffrage.
- Notes: Countries are ranked in descending order of life expectancy gains.
- I want to conclude with what we have learned about successful reform trajectories In the past when you only needed a small slice of well-educated people it was efficient for governments to invest a large sum in a small elite to lead the country. But the social and economic cost of low educational performance has risen substantially and all young people now need to leave school with strong foundation skills. When you could still assume that what you learn in school will last for a lifetime, teaching content and routine cognitive skills was at the centre of education. Today, where you can access content on Google, where routine cognitive skills are being digitised or outsourced, and where jobs are changing rapidly, the focus is on enabling people to become lifelong learners, to manage complex ways of thinking and complex ways of working that computers cannot take over easily. In the past, teachers had sometimes only a few years more education than the students they taught. When teacher quality is so low, governments tend to tell their teachers exactly what to do and exactly how they want it done and they tend to use Tayloristic methods of administrative control and accountability to get the results they want. Today the challenge is to make teaching a profession of high-level knowledge workers. But such people will not work in schools organised as Tayloristic workplaces using administrative forms of accountability and bureaucratic command and control systems to direct their work. To attract the people they need, successful education systems have transformed the form of work organisation in their schools to a professional form of work organisation in which professional norms of control complement bureaucratic and administrative forms of control.