Open enrollments Opportunities and difficulties of community colleges and open-admission institutions by Thomas Bailey (CCRC)

OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
DECEMBER 8, 2016
Thomas Bailey
Community College Research Center
Teachers College, Columbia University
Open enrollments
Opportunities and difficulties of community
colleges and open-admission institutions
Thomas Bailey
Director
Opening Higher Education, Session 4: Widening access to higher education
December 8, 2016
@CommunityCCRC
#RedesigningCCs

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(i) What are the opportunities and challenges of
community colleges and open-admission institutions?
(ii) What is the value of sub-degrees for the labour market?
(iii) What could be the value of starting a degree without
completion?
(iv) What is the role of technology to widen access and
does it work?
Questions?

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(i) Opportunities
(i) Value of sub-degrees for the labour market?
(ii) What could be the value of starting a degree without
completion?
(ii) Challenges
(iii) What is the role of technology to widen access and
does it work?
Outline

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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Opportunities

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Community College Basics
• Types of programs
– “Terminal” occupational degrees
– Transfer to bachelors degrees
– Short term skill building

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Average Published Tuition and Fees (Enrollment-
Weighted) for Full-Time Undergraduates by Sector,
2015-16
$3,435
$9,410
$32,405
$15,610
Public 2-year (In-
State)
Public 4-year (In-
State)
Private non-
Profit
Private for-Profit
Source: CollegeBoard, “Trends in College Pricing”, Table 1A

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Almost half of all undergraduates are
enrolled at community colleges
CCRC Summary of Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 12-month unduplicated headcount: 2013-14
45%
55%
Undergraduates
NOT at community
colleges
Undergraduates
at community
colleges

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More than one-third of community
college students are age 25 or above
Community Colleges Public 4-year
CCRC Summary of Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall Enrollment: Fall 2014
19 or
Under,
32%
20-24,
32%
25-29,
13%
30 or
Older,
24%
19 or
Under,
33%
20-24,
50%
25-29,
8%
30 or
Older,
9%

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37% 33%
24% 24% 18%
22%
21%
16% 15%
15%
15%
16%
13% 14%
16%
16%
18%
21% 21%
21%
9% 11%
25% 26% 30%
Community Colleges Public Baccalaureate Private Baccalaureate Public Research &
Doctoral
Private Research &
Doctoral
Bottom SES Fourth SES Quintlie Third SES Quintlie Second SES Quintile Top SES Quintile
Socioeconomic distribution at colleges by
institutional type, 2011-12
CCRC Analysis using National Postsecondary Student Aid Study: 2012 Undergraduates (PowerStats); Income Quintile is based on 2012
household income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/ (Table H-
1). Both dependent and independent students are combined.

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Pre-college
work
In-college
work
Post-college
work
High school College
More
college
Student Progress is Complex

12
Median Earnings and Tax Payments of Full-Time Year-
Round Workers Ages 25 and Older, by Education
Level, 2011
SOURCES: Baum, Ma, and Payne (2013) Education Pays, 2013, College Board. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2012, Table
PINC-03; Internal Revenue Service, 2010; Davis et al., 2013; calculations by the authors.

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Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and
Education Level, 2012
SOURCES :Baum, Ma, and Payne (2013) Education Pays, 2013, College Board. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau,
2012b; calculations by the authors.

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$1,800
$1,040
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000
KY
MI
NC
Mean
VA
WA
AR
KY
MI
NC
Mean
VA
WA
AR
Quarterly Earnings Gains:
AA over No Award 8 Years Post-FTIC (Fixed
Effects)
Male
Female

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$1,800
$1,040
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000
KY
MI
NC
Mean F
VA
WA
AR
KY
MI
NC
Mean M
VA
WA
AR
AA over No Award 8 Years Post-FTIC (Fixed
Effects)
Male
Female
PV gain for AA
(30 years d=3%)
Male $75,000
Female $135,000

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570
250
-300 600 1500
WA
MI
Mean
VA
KY
NC
AR
MI
NC
KY
Mean
WA
VA
AR
Certificate over No Award 8 Years Post-FTIC
(Fixed Effects)
Gains are: modest,
temporary, non-robust
(except in health).
But certificates vary
substantially in credits.
Male
Female

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NLSY97 college sample:
Model coefficients
relative to no award
Annual Earnings 2011-13 Average
(2013 dollars)
Male Female
[M1] Any Certificate
−2,101
[2894]
−1,316
[1526]
[M2] Stacked award
3,220
[4371]
5,268**
[2505]
[M3] Cert+AA (prog./suppl.)
−4,690
[6646]
7,939*
[3858]
Cert+BA (prog./suppl.)
940
[3853]
3,146
[3235]
Cert+Cert (independent)
8,058
[7848]
−1,146
[4993]
[M4] Stacked award incl. vocational
6,334**
[1781]
2,753**
[1186]
Observations 1,658 1,857
NLSY97 postsecondary transcript file, transcript/panel weights 2013. Controls for region, ASVAB, race, maternal ed., family income,
exp., other postsecondary awards. Robust standard errors in brackets.

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• Value of an Associates Degree Compared to High School Degree
– Average 13% for Males
– Average 20% for Females
– But differs by field (Associate of Arts or General Studies mainly
valuable for transfer)
• Benefits to Society Exceed Costs
– Economic Growth
– Health
– Welfare Receipt
– Reduced Crime
A good investment for students and society

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Challenges

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Source: CCRC
Dev Ed Sorting System

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• 80 percent of CC students want a bachelors degree
• Only one-third of all students transfer
• About 40 percent of those earn a bachelors degree
• 14% of degree seeking students starting at a CC earn a 4-
year college degree within 6 years
Student Pathways: Transfers

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Slightly more than one third of community
college students earn a degree in 6 years
36%
20%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Earned a degree at any institution Still enrolled at an institution Not enrolled
Shapiro et al. (2014). Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

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-$400
$400
$1,200
$2,000
$2,800
1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61+
Quarterly Earnings Gain over Zero Credits
for Non-Completers
(8 Years After FTIC in VA/NC)
Average
Credits Earned

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Per-pupil total operating and education & related
expenditures (i.e., excluding sponsored research &
auxiliary enterprise), AY 2011
Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2011). Trends in College Spending 2001–2011 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure
S2, 19–21.
$67,359
$37,408
$21,130 $19,377
$12,918
$35,059
$21,677
$16,009
$13,081
$9,550
Private Research
Sector
Private Bachelor's
Sector
Public Research
Sector
Public Bachelor's
Sector
Public Community
College Sector
Total Operating Education & Related

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Changes in total operating spending per student
over time, AY 2001–2011
Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2011). Trends in College Spending 2001–2011 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure
S2, 19–21. Data Shown in 2011 Dollars.
$11,538
$2,780
$(118) $(322)
$(904)
$9,304
$991
$349
($1,097) ($1,427)
Private Research
Sector
Public Research
Sector
Private Bachelor's
Sector
Public Bachelor's
Sector
Public Community
College Sector
Total Operating Education & Related

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Technology

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• Information to students and staff
• Tracking progress
• Instruction
Uses of Technology

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Penn’s Coursera Offerings (U.S. Respondents)
Level of Education
Have
College
Degree
MOOC enrollees
Have
College
Degree
U.S. population
Christensen et al., November 2013, “Who takes MOOCs and why?” Penn State Working Paper

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Raw withdrawal rates: CC math & English
25%
19%
12% 10%
Math withdrawal Rate English withdrawal Rate
Online
Face-to-face
18%
20%
10%
12%
Math Withdrawal Rate English Withdrawal Rate
Virginia Washington

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Raw Course Withdrawal & Grade: Ethnicity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
F2F Online
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
F2F Online
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Other
% Withdrawal Grade (Among Completers)
(C)
(B)
(A)

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Please visit us on the web at
http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu
where you can download presentations, reports,
and briefs, and sign-up for news announcements.
We’re also on Facebook and Twitter.
525 West 120th Street, Box 174, New York, NY 10027
E-mail: ccrc@columbia.edu Telephone: 212.678.3091
For more information
@CommunityCCRC
#RedesigningCCs

Open enrollments Opportunities and difficulties of community colleges and open-admission institutions by Thomas Bailey (CCRC)

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