SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 14
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
© OECD/IEA 2014
OECD Parliamentary Days
25 February 2015
© OECD/IEA 2014
Changing dynamics of global demand
Energy demand by region
As China slows, then India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa &
Latin America take over as the engines of global energy demand growth.
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mtoe
OECD
Rest of world
China
China
Rest of world
OECD
© OECD/IEA 2014
Rich in resources
In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa;
Hydro
Wind
Oil
Oil
Oil
OilGas
Gas
Oil
Coal
Gas
Fossil fuels
Solar
the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydropower & solar
© OECD/IEA 2014
Power sector investment, regional cooperation & improved management of
resources & revenues are three pillars of a brighter sub-Saharan energy future
Less than 50%
More than 50%
Share of population with
access to electricity:
Rich in resources, but poor in supply
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
200
400
600
800
Million
Population without electricity
© OECD/IEA 2014
2013 2020 2030 20402015
Instability in the Middle East
a major risk to oil markets
Oil production growth
The short-term picture of a well-supplied market should not obscure future risks as
demand rises to 104 mb/d & reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East
+5
+10
+15
-5
2013 2020 2030 20402015
Net decline in output from other producers
Increase to 2040: 14 mb/d
mb/d
Increase to 2040:
14 mb/d
Middle East
Brazil
Canada
United States
& reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East
in United States, Canada, Brazil & the Middle East
© OECD/IEA 2014
Looking ahead on the oil price
 Against a backdrop of weaker demand, buoyant supply in North
America has brought prices down – but can it keep them down?
 Lower prices are starting to curtail upstream spending plans, with
implications for future supply
 Over time, squeezed cash flow would constrain the capacity of
North America & Brazil to act as engines of global supply growth
 An oil price at current levels could provide some breathing space to
major oil importers, boosting demand & GDP
 The fall in export revenue a painful blow to some major OPEC
producers & Russia, affecting economy & geopolitics
© OECD/IEA 2014
The oil price is hitting 2015
upstream spending plans
Global upstream oil and gas investment
Announced spending cuts for 2015 are highest (at 20-40%) in North America & Brazil;
for US tight oil, a decision to stop drilling feeds through quickly into production levels
250
500
750
Billiondollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 (est.)
17%
© OECD/IEA 2014
Gas on the way to become first fuel,
with role of LNG on the rise
Main sources of regional LNG supply
Share of LNG rises in global gas trade, pushed by a near-tripling in liquefaction sites:
LNG brings more integrated & secure gas markets, but only limited relief on prices
Middle East
Australia
US & Canada
East Africa
Russia
North Africa
West Africa
Other
Middle East
Southeast Asia
West Africa
Australia
North Africa
Other
100
200
300
400
500
600bcm
2012 2040
© OECD/IEA 2014
Retirements add to the investment
challenge in the power sector
Power capacity by source, 2013-2040
Despite limited demand growth, OECD countries account for
one-third of capacity additions – to compensate for retirements & to decarbonise
2013
Retirements Additions
2040
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000GW
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
© OECD/IEA 2014
Nuclear capacity grows by 60%, but no
nuclear renaissance in sight
Net capacity change in key regions, 2013-2040
By 2040, an expanded nuclear fleet has saved almost 4 years of current CO2 emissions
& for some countries has improved energy security & balances of energy trade
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
European Union
Japan
United States
Russia
India
China
GW
© OECD/IEA 2014
50
100
150
200
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
GW
2013
Nuclear power: public concerns
must be heard and addressed
Retirements of nuclear power capacity
1990-2040
Key public concerns include plant operation, decommissioning & waste management;
Spent nuclear fuel
European Union United States Japan Others
38% of today’s
capacity to retire
by 2040
1971-2012
350 thousand tonnes
1971-2040
705 thousand tonnes
1971-2040: 705 thousand tonnes
United States
European
Union
JapanChina
Canada
Russia Korea
India
Other
By 2040, almost 200 reactors are retired & the amount of spent fuel doubles& the amount of spent fuel doubles
© OECD/IEA 2014
The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040 – Paris must send a strong
signal for increasing low-carbon investment four times beyond current levels
The 2 °C goal – last chance in Paris?
World CO2 budget for 2 °C
~2300 Gt
25%
50%
75%
100%
Share of budget used
in Central Scenario
1900-2012
2012-2040
Average annual low-carbon
investment, 2014-2040
Central
Scenario
For 2°C
target
2013
CCS
Nuclear
Renewables
Efficiency
The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Trilliondollars(2013)
© OECD/IEA 2014
Navigating a stormy energy future
 Geopolitical & market uncertainties are set to propel energy
security high up the global energy agenda
 Volatility in the Middle East raises short-term doubts on
investment & spells trouble for future oil supply
 Nuclear power can play a role in energy security & carbon
abatement – but financing & public concerns are key issues
 Without clear direction from Paris in 2015, the world is set for
warming well beyond the 2 °C goal
 Far-sighted government policies are essential to steer the global
energy system on to a safer course
© OECD/IEA 2014
www.worldenergyoutlook.org
email: weo@iea.org

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Global power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive Director
Global power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive DirectorGlobal power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive Director
Global power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive DirectorInternational Energy Agency
 
Global Energy Markets in Transition: Implications for the economy, environmen...
Global Energy Markets in Transition: Implications for the economy, environmen...Global Energy Markets in Transition: Implications for the economy, environmen...
Global Energy Markets in Transition: Implications for the economy, environmen...International Energy Agency
 
World Energy Outlook 2014 by Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the the Inte...
World Energy Outlook 2014 by Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the the Inte...World Energy Outlook 2014 by Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the the Inte...
World Energy Outlook 2014 by Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the the Inte...International Energy Agency
 
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 presentation
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 presentationIEA World Energy Outlook 2015 presentation
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 presentationEnergy for One World
 
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA Global CCS Institute
 
India's Energy Sector - How to increase Oil Supply
India's Energy Sector - How to increase Oil Supply India's Energy Sector - How to increase Oil Supply
India's Energy Sector - How to increase Oil Supply Nitesh Luthra
 
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 - Executive Summary
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 - Executive SummaryIEA World Energy Outlook 2015 - Executive Summary
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 - Executive SummaryMarcellus Drilling News
 
IEA World Energy Outlook 2017- till period 2040
IEA World Energy Outlook 2017- till period 2040IEA World Energy Outlook 2017- till period 2040
IEA World Energy Outlook 2017- till period 2040Energy for One World
 
World Energy Outlook 2017 | Bruxelles - 01 février 2018
World Energy Outlook 2017 | Bruxelles - 01 février 2018World Energy Outlook 2017 | Bruxelles - 01 février 2018
World Energy Outlook 2017 | Bruxelles - 01 février 2018Cluster TWEED
 
World Energy Outlook 2015: Presentation to Press
World Energy Outlook 2015: Presentation to PressWorld Energy Outlook 2015: Presentation to Press
World Energy Outlook 2015: Presentation to PressInternational Energy Agency
 
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 Presentation
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 PresentationBP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 Presentation
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 Presentationbp
 
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2014 Booklet
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2014 BookletBP Energy Outlook 2035: 2014 Booklet
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2014 Bookletbp
 
The Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environment
The Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environmentThe Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environment
The Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environmentInternational Energy Agency
 
World Energy Outlook 2012: Presentation to press
World Energy Outlook 2012: Presentation to pressWorld Energy Outlook 2012: Presentation to press
World Energy Outlook 2012: Presentation to pressInternational Energy Agency
 
IEA 2016 World Energy Investment Report PowerPoint
IEA 2016 World Energy Investment Report PowerPointIEA 2016 World Energy Investment Report PowerPoint
IEA 2016 World Energy Investment Report PowerPointMarcellus Drilling News
 
World Energy Outlook 2016 - Executive Summary
World Energy Outlook 2016 - Executive SummaryWorld Energy Outlook 2016 - Executive Summary
World Energy Outlook 2016 - Executive SummaryMarcellus Drilling News
 

Was ist angesagt? (20)

Global power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive Director
Global power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive DirectorGlobal power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive Director
Global power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive Director
 
Global Energy Markets in Transition: Implications for the economy, environmen...
Global Energy Markets in Transition: Implications for the economy, environmen...Global Energy Markets in Transition: Implications for the economy, environmen...
Global Energy Markets in Transition: Implications for the economy, environmen...
 
World Energy Outlook 2014 by Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the the Inte...
World Energy Outlook 2014 by Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the the Inte...World Energy Outlook 2014 by Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the the Inte...
World Energy Outlook 2014 by Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the the Inte...
 
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 presentation
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 presentationIEA World Energy Outlook 2015 presentation
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 presentation
 
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
 
India's Energy Sector - How to increase Oil Supply
India's Energy Sector - How to increase Oil Supply India's Energy Sector - How to increase Oil Supply
India's Energy Sector - How to increase Oil Supply
 
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 - Executive Summary
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 - Executive SummaryIEA World Energy Outlook 2015 - Executive Summary
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 - Executive Summary
 
IEA World Energy Outlook 2017- till period 2040
IEA World Energy Outlook 2017- till period 2040IEA World Energy Outlook 2017- till period 2040
IEA World Energy Outlook 2017- till period 2040
 
IEA World Energy Outlook 2018
IEA World Energy Outlook 2018IEA World Energy Outlook 2018
IEA World Energy Outlook 2018
 
World Energy Outlook 2017 | Bruxelles - 01 février 2018
World Energy Outlook 2017 | Bruxelles - 01 février 2018World Energy Outlook 2017 | Bruxelles - 01 février 2018
World Energy Outlook 2017 | Bruxelles - 01 février 2018
 
Webinar: Outlook for Fossil Fuels
Webinar: Outlook for Fossil FuelsWebinar: Outlook for Fossil Fuels
Webinar: Outlook for Fossil Fuels
 
World Energy Outlook 2015: Presentation to Press
World Energy Outlook 2015: Presentation to PressWorld Energy Outlook 2015: Presentation to Press
World Energy Outlook 2015: Presentation to Press
 
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 Presentation
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 PresentationBP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 Presentation
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 Presentation
 
Oil 2018 slide deck
Oil 2018 slide deckOil 2018 slide deck
Oil 2018 slide deck
 
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2014 Booklet
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2014 BookletBP Energy Outlook 2035: 2014 Booklet
BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2014 Booklet
 
Cozzi giff oecd
Cozzi giff oecdCozzi giff oecd
Cozzi giff oecd
 
The Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environment
The Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environmentThe Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environment
The Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environment
 
World Energy Outlook 2012: Presentation to press
World Energy Outlook 2012: Presentation to pressWorld Energy Outlook 2012: Presentation to press
World Energy Outlook 2012: Presentation to press
 
IEA 2016 World Energy Investment Report PowerPoint
IEA 2016 World Energy Investment Report PowerPointIEA 2016 World Energy Investment Report PowerPoint
IEA 2016 World Energy Investment Report PowerPoint
 
World Energy Outlook 2016 - Executive Summary
World Energy Outlook 2016 - Executive SummaryWorld Energy Outlook 2016 - Executive Summary
World Energy Outlook 2016 - Executive Summary
 

Ähnlich wie World Energy Outlook - Parliamentary Days 2015

Global energy prospects and their implications for Indonesia
Global energy prospects and their implications for IndonesiaGlobal energy prospects and their implications for Indonesia
Global energy prospects and their implications for IndonesiaInternational Energy Agency
 
World Energy Outlook 2010 London Nov9
World Energy Outlook 2010 London Nov9World Energy Outlook 2010 London Nov9
World Energy Outlook 2010 London Nov9Gareth Johnston
 
Energy outlook 2035_presentation
Energy outlook 2035_presentationEnergy outlook 2035_presentation
Energy outlook 2035_presentationaguslatief
 
Webinar: New Policies Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2017
Webinar: New Policies Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2017Webinar: New Policies Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2017
Webinar: New Policies Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2017International Energy Agency
 
WEO 2008 WEC 19th March ROME
WEO 2008 WEC 19th March ROMEWEO 2008 WEC 19th March ROME
WEO 2008 WEC 19th March ROMEnewcler
 
IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, from World Energy Outlook 2015
IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, from World Energy Outlook 2015IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, from World Energy Outlook 2015
IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, from World Energy Outlook 2015International Energy Agency
 
Natural gas and LNG in the Future of Global Energy
Natural gas and LNG in the Future of Global EnergyNatural gas and LNG in the Future of Global Energy
Natural gas and LNG in the Future of Global EnergyInternational Energy Agency
 
ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, Internationa...
ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, Internationa...ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, Internationa...
ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, Internationa...Student Energy
 
Webinar on the Outlook for Fuels, 23rd November 2018
Webinar on the Outlook for Fuels, 23rd November 2018Webinar on the Outlook for Fuels, 23rd November 2018
Webinar on the Outlook for Fuels, 23rd November 2018International Energy Agency
 
World Energy Outlook 2013 by Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist
World Energy Outlook 2013 by Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Chief EconomistWorld Energy Outlook 2013 by Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist
World Energy Outlook 2013 by Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economistatlanticcouncil
 

Ähnlich wie World Energy Outlook - Parliamentary Days 2015 (20)

IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 Presentation
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 PresentationIEA World Energy Outlook 2015 Presentation
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 Presentation
 
Africa Energy Outlook
Africa Energy OutlookAfrica Energy Outlook
Africa Energy Outlook
 
Global energy prospects and their implications for Indonesia
Global energy prospects and their implications for IndonesiaGlobal energy prospects and their implications for Indonesia
Global energy prospects and their implications for Indonesia
 
Weo2010 london nov9
Weo2010 london nov9Weo2010 london nov9
Weo2010 london nov9
 
World Energy Outlook 2010 London Nov9
World Energy Outlook 2010 London Nov9World Energy Outlook 2010 London Nov9
World Energy Outlook 2010 London Nov9
 
World Energy Outlook 2013
World Energy Outlook 2013 World Energy Outlook 2013
World Energy Outlook 2013
 
Energy outlook 2035_presentation
Energy outlook 2035_presentationEnergy outlook 2035_presentation
Energy outlook 2035_presentation
 
World Energy Outlook, 2017
World Energy Outlook, 2017World Energy Outlook, 2017
World Energy Outlook, 2017
 
Global energy markets: today & tomorrow
Global energy markets: today & tomorrowGlobal energy markets: today & tomorrow
Global energy markets: today & tomorrow
 
Webinar: New Policies Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2017
Webinar: New Policies Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2017Webinar: New Policies Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2017
Webinar: New Policies Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2017
 
World Energy Outlook
World Energy OutlookWorld Energy Outlook
World Energy Outlook
 
WEO 2008 WEC 19th March ROME
WEO 2008 WEC 19th March ROMEWEO 2008 WEC 19th March ROME
WEO 2008 WEC 19th March ROME
 
IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, from World Energy Outlook 2015
IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, from World Energy Outlook 2015IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, from World Energy Outlook 2015
IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, from World Energy Outlook 2015
 
Webinar : Southeast Asia Energy Outlook
Webinar : Southeast Asia Energy OutlookWebinar : Southeast Asia Energy Outlook
Webinar : Southeast Asia Energy Outlook
 
Natural gas and LNG in the Future of Global Energy
Natural gas and LNG in the Future of Global EnergyNatural gas and LNG in the Future of Global Energy
Natural gas and LNG in the Future of Global Energy
 
ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, Internationa...
ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, Internationa...ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, Internationa...
ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, Internationa...
 
Autumn Seminar. Retos del gas no convencional. Mr. Ian Cronshaw
Autumn Seminar. Retos del gas no convencional. Mr. Ian CronshawAutumn Seminar. Retos del gas no convencional. Mr. Ian Cronshaw
Autumn Seminar. Retos del gas no convencional. Mr. Ian Cronshaw
 
Renewable energy medium term market report 2015
Renewable energy medium term market report 2015Renewable energy medium term market report 2015
Renewable energy medium term market report 2015
 
Webinar on the Outlook for Fuels, 23rd November 2018
Webinar on the Outlook for Fuels, 23rd November 2018Webinar on the Outlook for Fuels, 23rd November 2018
Webinar on the Outlook for Fuels, 23rd November 2018
 
World Energy Outlook 2013 by Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist
World Energy Outlook 2013 by Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Chief EconomistWorld Energy Outlook 2013 by Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist
World Energy Outlook 2013 by Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist
 

Mehr von OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Mehr von OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (20)

Digitalisation and the Future of Work (Part 1) - October 2016 Meeting of the ...
Digitalisation and the Future of Work (Part 1) - October 2016 Meeting of the ...Digitalisation and the Future of Work (Part 1) - October 2016 Meeting of the ...
Digitalisation and the Future of Work (Part 1) - October 2016 Meeting of the ...
 
Responsible Business Conduct - October 2016 Meeting of the OECD Global Parlia...
Responsible Business Conduct - October 2016 Meeting of the OECD Global Parlia...Responsible Business Conduct - October 2016 Meeting of the OECD Global Parlia...
Responsible Business Conduct - October 2016 Meeting of the OECD Global Parlia...
 
Regional Challenges: A view from Asia (Part 2) - OECD Global Parliamentary Ne...
Regional Challenges: A view from Asia (Part 2) - OECD Global Parliamentary Ne...Regional Challenges: A view from Asia (Part 2) - OECD Global Parliamentary Ne...
Regional Challenges: A view from Asia (Part 2) - OECD Global Parliamentary Ne...
 
Disaster Risk Management - OECD Global Parliamentary Network meeting, Tokyo, ...
Disaster Risk Management - OECD Global Parliamentary Network meeting, Tokyo, ...Disaster Risk Management - OECD Global Parliamentary Network meeting, Tokyo, ...
Disaster Risk Management - OECD Global Parliamentary Network meeting, Tokyo, ...
 
Regional Challenges: A view from Asia (Part 1) - OECD Global Parliamentary Ne...
Regional Challenges: A view from Asia (Part 1) - OECD Global Parliamentary Ne...Regional Challenges: A view from Asia (Part 1) - OECD Global Parliamentary Ne...
Regional Challenges: A view from Asia (Part 1) - OECD Global Parliamentary Ne...
 
Gender Session - Women as drivers of economic growth - OECD Global Parliament...
Gender Session - Women as drivers of economic growth - OECD Global Parliament...Gender Session - Women as drivers of economic growth - OECD Global Parliament...
Gender Session - Women as drivers of economic growth - OECD Global Parliament...
 
OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 1)
OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 1)OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 1)
OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 1)
 
OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 2)
OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 2)OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 2)
OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 2)
 
OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - Financing Democracy
OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - Financing DemocracyOECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - Financing Democracy
OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - Financing Democracy
 
OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - COP21 Outcomes and implications
OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - COP21 Outcomes and implicationsOECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - COP21 Outcomes and implications
OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - COP21 Outcomes and implications
 
Strategic tax policy design in the face of the changing business environment ...
Strategic tax policy design in the face of the changing business environment ...Strategic tax policy design in the face of the changing business environment ...
Strategic tax policy design in the face of the changing business environment ...
 
Exchange of tax information
Exchange of tax informationExchange of tax information
Exchange of tax information
 
BEPS Actions – where legislative changes/action may be needed
BEPS Actions – where legislative changes/action may be neededBEPS Actions – where legislative changes/action may be needed
BEPS Actions – where legislative changes/action may be needed
 
Overview of the OECD/G20 BEPS Project
Overview of the OECD/G20 BEPS ProjectOverview of the OECD/G20 BEPS Project
Overview of the OECD/G20 BEPS Project
 
OECD Employment Outlook - Mark Keese - OECD Global Parliamentary Network
OECD Employment Outlook - Mark Keese - OECD Global Parliamentary NetworkOECD Employment Outlook - Mark Keese - OECD Global Parliamentary Network
OECD Employment Outlook - Mark Keese - OECD Global Parliamentary Network
 
Settling In, integration of migrants and their children - Thomas Liebig - OEC...
Settling In, integration of migrants and their children - Thomas Liebig - OEC...Settling In, integration of migrants and their children - Thomas Liebig - OEC...
Settling In, integration of migrants and their children - Thomas Liebig - OEC...
 
Recent migration trends and the refugee crisis - Jean Christophe Dumont - OEC...
Recent migration trends and the refugee crisis - Jean Christophe Dumont - OEC...Recent migration trends and the refugee crisis - Jean Christophe Dumont - OEC...
Recent migration trends and the refugee crisis - Jean Christophe Dumont - OEC...
 
The Road to COP21 - Simon Buckle, OECD - Global Parliamentary Network
The Road to COP21 - Simon Buckle, OECD - Global Parliamentary NetworkThe Road to COP21 - Simon Buckle, OECD - Global Parliamentary Network
The Road to COP21 - Simon Buckle, OECD - Global Parliamentary Network
 
Fighting Bribery and Corruption - Drago Kos - OECD Global Parliamentary Network
Fighting Bribery and Corruption - Drago Kos - OECD Global Parliamentary NetworkFighting Bribery and Corruption - Drago Kos - OECD Global Parliamentary Network
Fighting Bribery and Corruption - Drago Kos - OECD Global Parliamentary Network
 
Tackling unhealthy diets and obesity
Tackling unhealthy diets and obesityTackling unhealthy diets and obesity
Tackling unhealthy diets and obesity
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen

12042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
12042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf12042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
12042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
11042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
11042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf11042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
11042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
Emerging issues in migration policies.ppt
Emerging issues in migration policies.pptEmerging issues in migration policies.ppt
Emerging issues in migration policies.pptNandinituteja1
 
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
Mitochondrial Fusion Vital for Adult Brain Function and Disease Understanding...
Mitochondrial Fusion Vital for Adult Brain Function and Disease Understanding...Mitochondrial Fusion Vital for Adult Brain Function and Disease Understanding...
Mitochondrial Fusion Vital for Adult Brain Function and Disease Understanding...The Lifesciences Magazine
 
Power in International Relations (Pol 5)
Power in International Relations (Pol 5)Power in International Relations (Pol 5)
Power in International Relations (Pol 5)ssuser583c35
 
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
Geostrategic significance of South Asian countries.ppt
Geostrategic significance of South Asian countries.pptGeostrategic significance of South Asian countries.ppt
Geostrategic significance of South Asian countries.pptUsmanKaran
 
Political-Ideologies-and-The-Movements.pptx
Political-Ideologies-and-The-Movements.pptxPolitical-Ideologies-and-The-Movements.pptx
Political-Ideologies-and-The-Movements.pptxSasikiranMarri
 
lok sabha Elections in india- 2024 .pptx
lok sabha Elections in india- 2024 .pptxlok sabha Elections in india- 2024 .pptx
lok sabha Elections in india- 2024 .pptxdigiyvbmrkt
 
13042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
13042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf13042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
13042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen (12)

12042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
12042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf12042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
12042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
11042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
11042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf11042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
11042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Emerging issues in migration policies.ppt
Emerging issues in migration policies.pptEmerging issues in migration policies.ppt
Emerging issues in migration policies.ppt
 
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Mitochondrial Fusion Vital for Adult Brain Function and Disease Understanding...
Mitochondrial Fusion Vital for Adult Brain Function and Disease Understanding...Mitochondrial Fusion Vital for Adult Brain Function and Disease Understanding...
Mitochondrial Fusion Vital for Adult Brain Function and Disease Understanding...
 
Power in International Relations (Pol 5)
Power in International Relations (Pol 5)Power in International Relations (Pol 5)
Power in International Relations (Pol 5)
 
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Geostrategic significance of South Asian countries.ppt
Geostrategic significance of South Asian countries.pptGeostrategic significance of South Asian countries.ppt
Geostrategic significance of South Asian countries.ppt
 
Political-Ideologies-and-The-Movements.pptx
Political-Ideologies-and-The-Movements.pptxPolitical-Ideologies-and-The-Movements.pptx
Political-Ideologies-and-The-Movements.pptx
 
lok sabha Elections in india- 2024 .pptx
lok sabha Elections in india- 2024 .pptxlok sabha Elections in india- 2024 .pptx
lok sabha Elections in india- 2024 .pptx
 
World Economic Forum : The Global Risks Report 2024
World Economic Forum : The Global Risks Report 2024World Economic Forum : The Global Risks Report 2024
World Economic Forum : The Global Risks Report 2024
 
13042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
13042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf13042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
13042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 

World Energy Outlook - Parliamentary Days 2015

  • 1. © OECD/IEA 2014 OECD Parliamentary Days 25 February 2015
  • 2. © OECD/IEA 2014 Changing dynamics of global demand Energy demand by region As China slows, then India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa & Latin America take over as the engines of global energy demand growth. 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Mtoe OECD Rest of world China China Rest of world OECD
  • 3. © OECD/IEA 2014 Rich in resources In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa; Hydro Wind Oil Oil Oil OilGas Gas Oil Coal Gas Fossil fuels Solar the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydropower & solar
  • 4. © OECD/IEA 2014 Power sector investment, regional cooperation & improved management of resources & revenues are three pillars of a brighter sub-Saharan energy future Less than 50% More than 50% Share of population with access to electricity: Rich in resources, but poor in supply 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 200 400 600 800 Million Population without electricity
  • 5. © OECD/IEA 2014 2013 2020 2030 20402015 Instability in the Middle East a major risk to oil markets Oil production growth The short-term picture of a well-supplied market should not obscure future risks as demand rises to 104 mb/d & reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East +5 +10 +15 -5 2013 2020 2030 20402015 Net decline in output from other producers Increase to 2040: 14 mb/d mb/d Increase to 2040: 14 mb/d Middle East Brazil Canada United States & reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East in United States, Canada, Brazil & the Middle East
  • 6. © OECD/IEA 2014 Looking ahead on the oil price  Against a backdrop of weaker demand, buoyant supply in North America has brought prices down – but can it keep them down?  Lower prices are starting to curtail upstream spending plans, with implications for future supply  Over time, squeezed cash flow would constrain the capacity of North America & Brazil to act as engines of global supply growth  An oil price at current levels could provide some breathing space to major oil importers, boosting demand & GDP  The fall in export revenue a painful blow to some major OPEC producers & Russia, affecting economy & geopolitics
  • 7. © OECD/IEA 2014 The oil price is hitting 2015 upstream spending plans Global upstream oil and gas investment Announced spending cuts for 2015 are highest (at 20-40%) in North America & Brazil; for US tight oil, a decision to stop drilling feeds through quickly into production levels 250 500 750 Billiondollars 2012 2013 2014 2015 (est.) 17%
  • 8. © OECD/IEA 2014 Gas on the way to become first fuel, with role of LNG on the rise Main sources of regional LNG supply Share of LNG rises in global gas trade, pushed by a near-tripling in liquefaction sites: LNG brings more integrated & secure gas markets, but only limited relief on prices Middle East Australia US & Canada East Africa Russia North Africa West Africa Other Middle East Southeast Asia West Africa Australia North Africa Other 100 200 300 400 500 600bcm 2012 2040
  • 9. © OECD/IEA 2014 Retirements add to the investment challenge in the power sector Power capacity by source, 2013-2040 Despite limited demand growth, OECD countries account for one-third of capacity additions – to compensate for retirements & to decarbonise 2013 Retirements Additions 2040 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000GW Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Coal
  • 10. © OECD/IEA 2014 Nuclear capacity grows by 60%, but no nuclear renaissance in sight Net capacity change in key regions, 2013-2040 By 2040, an expanded nuclear fleet has saved almost 4 years of current CO2 emissions & for some countries has improved energy security & balances of energy trade -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 European Union Japan United States Russia India China GW
  • 11. © OECD/IEA 2014 50 100 150 200 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 GW 2013 Nuclear power: public concerns must be heard and addressed Retirements of nuclear power capacity 1990-2040 Key public concerns include plant operation, decommissioning & waste management; Spent nuclear fuel European Union United States Japan Others 38% of today’s capacity to retire by 2040 1971-2012 350 thousand tonnes 1971-2040 705 thousand tonnes 1971-2040: 705 thousand tonnes United States European Union JapanChina Canada Russia Korea India Other By 2040, almost 200 reactors are retired & the amount of spent fuel doubles& the amount of spent fuel doubles
  • 12. © OECD/IEA 2014 The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040 – Paris must send a strong signal for increasing low-carbon investment four times beyond current levels The 2 °C goal – last chance in Paris? World CO2 budget for 2 °C ~2300 Gt 25% 50% 75% 100% Share of budget used in Central Scenario 1900-2012 2012-2040 Average annual low-carbon investment, 2014-2040 Central Scenario For 2°C target 2013 CCS Nuclear Renewables Efficiency The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Trilliondollars(2013)
  • 13. © OECD/IEA 2014 Navigating a stormy energy future  Geopolitical & market uncertainties are set to propel energy security high up the global energy agenda  Volatility in the Middle East raises short-term doubts on investment & spells trouble for future oil supply  Nuclear power can play a role in energy security & carbon abatement – but financing & public concerns are key issues  Without clear direction from Paris in 2015, the world is set for warming well beyond the 2 °C goal  Far-sighted government policies are essential to steer the global energy system on to a safer course