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Agricultural production
in million tonnes
dry matter
per year
Agricultural
production
2010
Food and
feed crops
3 Mt
Grass and
fodder
3 Mt
Wood
1 Mt
Energy
crops
0 Mt
Agricultural
production
2050
Food and
feed crops
5 Mt
Grass and fodder
3 Mt
Wood
2 Mt
Energy
crops
2 Mt
Source: PBL
Groundwater
abstraction
Abstraction
for irrigation
Gap in crop yields
0–20%
20–40%
>40%
Source: Wageningen
University & Research
Gap in crop yields
rainfed agriculture,
by 2050
Water shortages
cause large yield
gaps in many areas
around the world.
Improved water
management may
increase crop yields
in rainfed agriculture,
by 40% to over 60%.
Gap in crop yields
0–20%
20–40%
>40%
Source: Wageningen
University & Research
Gap in crop yields
irrigated agriculture,
by 2050
Improved water
management may
also increase crop
yields in irrigated
agriculture.
Under the Business-as-usual scenario,
total agricultural production is expected
to increase by 70%, mainly due to more
food and feed production and more
energy crop production. These increases
are projected to be about 10% lower than
they would have been without climate
change. This is mostly due to water
shortages and too high temperatures.
Especially the agriculture in tropical and
subtropical regions are projected to be
affected.
Twenty percent of the global agricultural area
is irrigated, which represents 40% of the total
in agricultural production. The remaining area
(80%) fully depends on precipitation.
Water is a prerequisite for crop production.
Water shortages directly lead to reduced crop
production. In water-stressed areas, agricul-
tural production levels can be increased by
improving water management and increasing
water efficiency (‘more crop per drop’).
Without improved water management, rainfed and irrigated agriculture
are expected to experience substantial yield gaps by 2050.
LOW CROP YIELDS REQUIRE
WATER MANAGEMENT
THE GEOGRAPHY OF FUTURE WATER CHALLENGES 2 MAPPING HOTSPOTS 3332

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