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   Taxes and the NHS?
       Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
       Ben.page@ipsos.com

© Ipsos MORI
Industrial action, reconfigurations and a rather controversial
  health bill

  What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
                                                                                                                        Brown becomes           Cameron becomes
                                                                                                                             PM                       PM

80              Blair – “We have underfunded the NHS
               for years and we are paying the price for
                          it” – BBC NHS day
70
                                                                                                                General
                                                                                                               Election –
60                                                                                                             “Battle of          Hewitt heckled at UNISON
                                                                                                               Margaret’s         conference – fears over NHS
                                                                                                               shoulder”                    job cuts
50

40
                                                                                                                                           Lowest score
                                                                                                                                              since
30                                                                                                                                        December 1985
                                                     Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more
                Blair tells doctors “not enough”        nurses, 40 new hospitals and
20                has been done for the NHS –      development of foundation trusts as part
               allocates extra ÂŁ20 billion. Report               of NHS plan                                          London
                says waiting lists have doubled                                                                       Bombs
10                         under Labour



 0
     May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May
     1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home                                          Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index




© Ipsos MORI
A country divided over its deficit
“There is a real need to cut spending on public services in order to pay off the deficit”

           70
                                              General election 2010

                                                                                                                               58                                  59
           60
                              Agree                                                                                                                       57                56

                                                                                                    49
           50                                                                                                                                                                                          48                                                                                                                                              46
                   51                                           43                                                                                                                                                                                                                      44
                   40
                                                                44                                  45
           40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           43
                                                                                                                                                                                                       41                                                                                                                                              44
                                                                                                                                                          37
                                                                                                                               35
           30
                              Disagree                                                                                                                             32 33

           20


           10


               0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-11
                                                       Oct-09




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                                     Aug-09




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                   Jun-09




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                            Jul-09




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-11



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-12
                                                                         Dec-09




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-11


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-12
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May-12
Base: c. British adults 18+ each month                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor




© Ipsos MORI
Want to protect some services from cuts.....
Q.       “If the overall level of public spending is going to be reduced as part of the process of
         reducing borrowing and rebalancing the public finances, should spending on some services
         be protected from cuts even if that means bigger rises in taxation and/or deeper cuts in other
         areas of public spending, or should no services be protected from cuts?”

                          June 2009                                                        Nov 2012
                   Don’t know                                                         Don’t know
                                     Yes, protect some                                                  Yes, protect some
No, do not protect           4%                services              No, do not protect                           services
any services
                                                                                            6%
                                     77%                             any services
                                                                                                         79%
                  20%                                                                15%




Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, interviewed by telephone, 22-25 November 2012                 Source: Ipsos MORI/Nuffield Trust



© Ipsos MORI
NHS is the most sacred cow
 Q.            “Which TWO or THREE, if any, of the following main areas of public
               spending do you think should be protected from any cuts?”
                                                                                        Change from
                                                                                         June ‘09
                 The NHS/health care                                         79                    -3
                              Schools                                   51                         -7
                   Care for the elderly                                 51                         +5
                            The Police                             39                              +4
                       Social services                        21                                   +6
                     Benefit payments                  10                                          +2
               Local authority services                10                                          +4
                              Defence                  9                                           -4
                         Overseas aid              4                                               -1
                        None of these         *                                                     0
                           Don't know          1                                                    0
Base: All who think some services should be protected (809)                   Source: Ipsos MORI/Nuffield Trust



© Ipsos MORI
Most now think we have to limit spending

Q On the whole, do you agree or disagree with the following statement:

                   There should always be limits on what is spent on the NHS

                                                        Don’t know             Strongly agree
                                                                    4%                                           2006                 2012
                   Strongly disagree                                     11%
                                                              14%                               Agree            44%                  58%
                                                                                                Disagree         48%                  39%




                                                       25%                       47%
               Tend to disagree                                                          Tend to agree




Base: 1,015 Adults aged 16+ in England, May 2012
                                                                                                    Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker 2012
       1,001 Adults aged 18+ in Great Britain, January 2006                                                      Ipsos MORI/NICE Public attitudes research 2006



© Ipsos MORI
Willing to pay more tax?
Q. “Many experts argue that it is becoming more expensive to fund the NHS because of increasing
costs of treatments, an ageing population and several other factors. This means that even in order to
maintain the current level of care and services provided for free by the NHS, spending on the NHS
would have to increase. With that in mind, which, if any, of the following would you most like to see?”

                                                         Don’t know
                                                                   8%
                                               None
                                                        11%
         Reduce the level of care and                                                        Increase taxes in order to
services provided by the NHS so that                                                         maintain the level of spending
you do not need to increase the current 11%                                            48%   needed to keep the current
  level of taxation and spending on the                                                      level of care and services
                                  NHS                                                        provided by the NHS


    Reduce spending on other services
   such as education and welfare in order                   21%
 to maintain the level of spending needed
     to keep the current level of care and
            services provided by the NHS
  Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, interviewed by telephone, 22-25 November 2012               Source: Ipsos MORI/Nuffield Trust



  © Ipsos MORI
The challenge for politicians
                      and leaders




© Ipsos MORI

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Ben page: Taxes and the NHS?

  • 1. Paste co- brand logo here For Internal Use Taxes and the NHS? Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI Ben.page@ipsos.com © Ipsos MORI
  • 2. Industrial action, reconfigurations and a rather controversial health bill
 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Brown becomes Cameron becomes PM PM 80 Blair – “We have underfunded the NHS for years and we are paying the price for it” – BBC NHS day 70 General Election – 60 “Battle of Hewitt heckled at UNISON Margaret’s conference – fears over NHS shoulder” job cuts 50 40 Lowest score since 30 December 1985 Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more Blair tells doctors “not enough” nurses, 40 new hospitals and 20 has been done for the NHS – development of foundation trusts as part allocates extra ÂŁ20 billion. Report of NHS plan London says waiting lists have doubled Bombs 10 under Labour 0 May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index © Ipsos MORI
  • 3. A country divided over its deficit “There is a real need to cut spending on public services in order to pay off the deficit” 70 General election 2010 58 59 60 Agree 57 56 49 50 48 46 51 43 44 40 44 45 40 43 41 44 37 35 30 Disagree 32 33 20 10 0 Oct-11 Oct-09 Oct-10 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Jun-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Jun-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Jun-12 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Apr-12 Dec-09 Nov-10 Sep-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 May-10 May-11 May-12 Base: c. British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor © Ipsos MORI
  • 4. Want to protect some services from cuts..... Q. “If the overall level of public spending is going to be reduced as part of the process of reducing borrowing and rebalancing the public finances, should spending on some services be protected from cuts even if that means bigger rises in taxation and/or deeper cuts in other areas of public spending, or should no services be protected from cuts?” June 2009 Nov 2012 Don’t know Don’t know Yes, protect some Yes, protect some No, do not protect 4% services No, do not protect services any services 6% 77% any services 79% 20% 15% Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, interviewed by telephone, 22-25 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/Nuffield Trust © Ipsos MORI
  • 5. NHS is the most sacred cow Q. “Which TWO or THREE, if any, of the following main areas of public spending do you think should be protected from any cuts?” Change from June ‘09 The NHS/health care 79 -3 Schools 51 -7 Care for the elderly 51 +5 The Police 39 +4 Social services 21 +6 Benefit payments 10 +2 Local authority services 10 +4 Defence 9 -4 Overseas aid 4 -1 None of these * 0 Don't know 1 0 Base: All who think some services should be protected (809) Source: Ipsos MORI/Nuffield Trust © Ipsos MORI
  • 6. Most now think we have to limit spending Q On the whole, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: There should always be limits on what is spent on the NHS Don’t know Strongly agree 4% 2006 2012 Strongly disagree 11% 14% Agree 44% 58% Disagree 48% 39% 25% 47% Tend to disagree Tend to agree Base: 1,015 Adults aged 16+ in England, May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker 2012 1,001 Adults aged 18+ in Great Britain, January 2006 Ipsos MORI/NICE Public attitudes research 2006 © Ipsos MORI
  • 7. Willing to pay more tax? Q. “Many experts argue that it is becoming more expensive to fund the NHS because of increasing costs of treatments, an ageing population and several other factors. This means that even in order to maintain the current level of care and services provided for free by the NHS, spending on the NHS would have to increase. With that in mind, which, if any, of the following would you most like to see?” Don’t know 8% None 11% Reduce the level of care and Increase taxes in order to services provided by the NHS so that maintain the level of spending you do not need to increase the current 11% 48% needed to keep the current level of taxation and spending on the level of care and services NHS provided by the NHS Reduce spending on other services such as education and welfare in order 21% to maintain the level of spending needed to keep the current level of care and services provided by the NHS Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, interviewed by telephone, 22-25 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/Nuffield Trust © Ipsos MORI
  • 8. The challenge for politicians and leaders © Ipsos MORI