Økonomisk Perspektiv, september 2012 (DK)

■ Indhold

ØKONOMISK
PERSPEKTIV
SEPTEMBER 2012

I lavt gear

Dansk økonomi i vækstdvale
■ Lav vækst og stor usikkerhed præger dansk økonomi, som fort-
sat hænger fast i dødvandet. Økonomien vil dog gradvist finde til-
bage på vækstsporet trukket af forbrug og investeringer.

Skrøbeligt globalt opsving
■ Verdensøkonomien er fortsat i fremgang, men tempoet er lavt,
og vejen frem er mudret. Euroområdet er igen på vej ind i reces-
sion, mens USA og resten af verden hen over sommeren har op- OVERBLIK 04
levet en afmatning i den økonomiske aktivitet. Der er bedre tider I LAVT GEAR
forude, men usikkerheden er stor.
DANMARK 08
VÆKSTEN LADER VENTE PÅ SIG
USA 16
LANGSOMT FREMAD
EUROOMRÅDET 18
VÆKST KRÆVER TILLID
RUSLAND 24
INFLATIONS DEJA-VU
KINA 29
VARSOMME SKRIDT FREMAD
OLIE 33
HØJE PRISER SELVOM UDBUDDET STIGER
TO ALTERNATIVER 35
RISIKOSCENARIER
2 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS

■ Indhold

Dataoverblik OVERBLIK
I lavt gear ..................................................................................................... 4
Nøgletal ................................... 6
Renter og valuta ................... 7
Nordiske økonomier
DANMARK
Væksten lader vente på sig ........................................................................... 8

Redaktør SWEDEN
Households prop up the economy ................................................................ 10
Helge J. Pedersen,
Cheføkonom NORWAY
helge.pedersen@nordea.com Risk of overheating may be the biggest challenge ........................................ 12
Tel +45 3333 3126 FINLAND
Finnish economy has cooled down across the board .................................... 14

Redaktionel deadline Major economies
30 August 2012 USA
Moving slowly forward ................................................................................. 16
EURO AREA
Restore confidence to end the recession ...................................................... 18
Besøg os på: UK
www.nordeamarkets.com UK growth stalling – awaiting outside help ................................................... 20
JAPAN
The challenges remain in the long term ........................................................ 21

Kilder:
Kilde til data i grafer er Reuters Emerging Markets
EcoWin og nationale statisti-
kbureauer, med mindre andet er POLAND
angivet. Slowdown under control .............................................................................. 22
RUSSIA
Inflation déjà vu ........................................................................................... 24
ESTONIA
Economy remains in a soft patch ................................................................. 26
LATVIA
Economy keeps delivering positive surprises ............................................... 27
LITHUANIA
Showing resilience ...................................................................................... 28
CHINA
Stability, stability and … stability.................................................................. 29
INDIA
A drought of growth..................................................................................... 31
BRAZIL
Slow BRIC healing ....................................................................................... 32

Commodities
OIL
Oil prices stay high but spare capacity buffer should build ........................... 33
METALS
Metal prices scratching the bottom for now .................................................. 34

TWO ALTERNATIVES
Risk scenario 1: Back on track..................................................................... 35
Risk scenario 2: That sinking feeling............................................................ 36


■ Overblik

I lavt gear
Verdensøkonomien er fortsat i fremgang, men tempoet er ret i, at banker og kreditinstitutter har måttet skære ned
lavt, og vejen frem er mudret. Euroområdet er igen på for udlånsaktiviteten. Dette brud i den pengepolitiske
vej ind i recession, mens USA og resten af verden hen transmissionsmekanisme kan ECB få meget svært ved at
over sommeren har oplevet en afmatning i den økonomi- rette op på, selv hvis den europæiske bankunion som
ske aktivitet. Vi er dog af den opfattelse, at der er bedre ventet bliver en realitet fra 2013.
tider forude, men usikkerheden er stor. Pengepolitikken
vil være særdeles lempelig hen over prognoseperioden, Verden hænger jo sammen
hvor også opstramningen af finanspolitikken i euroom- Så længe den indenlandske efterspørgsel ligger underdre-
rådet løjer af. Men både den offentlige og private sektor jet – med store regionale forskelle mellem syd og nord –
vil fortsat være fokuseret på at reducere gælden, og kre- er euroområdet fortsat meget afhængig af eksporten som
ditvæksten vil være svag. Der er således udsigt til en mo- drivkraft for den økonomiske vækst. Problemet er, at kri-
derat vækst i verdensøkonomien på 3,1% i år. I 2013 og sen i euroområdet også har bredt sig til andre steder på
2014 vil væksten øges til hhv. 3,5% og 3,8%. kloden. Således har de økonomiske nøgletal i både USA
og Kina været ret svage hen over sommeren, og der er
Den europæiske statsgældskrise nåede at blusse op igen fortsat risiko for, at situationen kan forværres. Især synes
denne sommer, katalyseret af parlamentsvalg i Græken- risikoen at være stor i USA, hvor der er præsidentvalg til
land og bankkrise i Spanien. Men brandslukningen gik november, og hvor man står yderst på den såkaldte ’’fi-
hurtigt og prompte i gang. På topmødet i Bruxelles i slut- skale klippekant’’. De amerikanske politikere har bl.a.
ningen af juni besluttede de europæiske politikere at tage fortsat ikke taget stilling til, om en række skattepolitiske
yderligere institutionelle skridt mod dannelsen af en ægte lempelser tilbage fra Bush-administrationens tid skal vi-
økonomisk og monetær union, samtidig med at den nød- dereføres eller ej. Hvis de ikke bliver det, kan det i vær-
lidende spanske banksektor fik stillet EUR 100 mia. til ste fald betyde en så kraftig opstramning af finanspoli-
rådighed gennem den europæiske redningsfond tikken, at USA uvægerligt vil havne i en ny recession.
EFSF/ESM. I juli sænkede ECB renten endnu engang Samtidig skal kongressen igen træffe beslutning om at
med 0,25 procentpoint, og senest har ’Super Mario’ hæve gældsloftet for at forhindre en offentlig betalings-
Draghi verbalt udstukket garantier for, at euroområdet standsning i begyndelsen af det nye år. Det er ikke reali-
ikke går i opløsning. stisk, at der påbegyndes en løsning på disse problemstil-
linger før efter præsidentvalget, hvorfor de politiske risici
Det er endnu uklart, præcist hvordan ECB vil garantere for den fortsatte fremgang i USA ikke må undervurderes.
dette, men alt tyder på, at det bliver i form af et storstilet
interventionsprogram i statsobligationsmarkedet. Det vil Vort hovedscenario er dog baseret på, at gældsloftet atter
dog blive gjort betinget af, at det land, hvis obligationer hæves, og at i hvert fald en del af skattelettelserne videre-
ECB skal købe, har anmodet EFSF/ESM om støtte og i føres under den nye præsident, uanset om han hedder Ba-
den forbindelse indgår et dertil hørende økonomisk stabi- rack Obama eller Mitt Romney. Endelig må det ikke
liseringsprogram. Det sidste vil det gøre det nemmere for glemmes, at forbundsbanken under Ben Bernanke i langt
Bundesbank og de tyske politikere at sluge (endnu) en videre udstrækning end i euroområdet er indstillet på at
økonomisk politisk kamel. Tyskland er fortsat bekymret understøtte den økonomiske vækst. De pengepolitiske
for, at redningsplanerne kan føre til mere økonomisk styringsrenter vil derfor være rekordlave frem til 2014,
slendrian blandt de gældsplagede landes politikere og og døren for yderligere kvantitative lempelser står fortsat
langsigtede inflationære risici. De store gældsramte lande åben, hvis konjunktursituationen forværres yderligere.
Spanien og Italien er topkandidater til at benytte sig af
den nye facilitet, hvis renten igen stiger til et ikke- Kina lemper den økonomiske politik
holdbart niveau, men programmet er principielt åbent for Den politiske situation er mere forudsigelig i Kina, selv-
alle lande. om ’Riget i Midten’ også skal finde en ny politisk ledelse
i år. Men når det kommer til handling for at genskabe
Tillid er afgørende vækst, virker ét-parti systemet uovertruffent. I en perio-
ECB’s proaktivitet – som også vil resultere i en yderlige- de, hvor eksportvæksten er ramt af den internationale
re rentesænkning – er et vigtigt skridt i retning af at få afmatning, lempes den økonomiske politik med stor
genskabt de finansielle markeders tillid til eurozonen. sandsynlighed så rigeligt, at den økonomiske vækst vil
Det kan i sidste instans vise sig afgørende for også at få kunne holde sig omkring det niveau på 8%, der er nød-
væksten tilbage i den private sektor. For selvom renten er vendig for at undgå en stigning i arbejdsløsheden.
rekordlav, er forbrugs- og investeringslysten fortsat på
nulpunktet. Det skyldes utvivlsomt en kombination af Vækstudsigterne synes også fortsat at være relativt fine i
manglende tillid til fremtiden blandt husholdninger og Brasilien og Rusland, hjulpet af de høje råvarepriser og
virksomheder, der afspejler sig i en svag låneefterspørg- nye reforminitiativer. Mere problematisk ser situationen
sel, og den nye regulering af den finansielle sektor. De ud i Indien, hvor eksporten er ramt af den internationale
skærpede solvens- og likviditetskrav har således resulte- afmatning, hvor en svag monsoon har medført krise i


■ Overblik

landbruget, og et stort offentligt budgetunderskud redu- den efteråret 2010 har holdt aktiviteten fastlåst på et stort
cerer mulighederne for at afhjælpe situationen gennem set uændret niveau. Økonomien vil over de kommende
øget offentlig efterspørgsel. kvartaler gradvist finde tilbage på vækstsporet trukket af
et stort uforløst potentiale i husholdningerne, som grad-
Højere priser, men ingen løn-pris-spiral i sigte vist vil blive vekslet til et stigende forbrug. Samtidig un-
Vejrligets luner har også ramt USA, hvor den værste tør- derstøttes væksten af en forsinket effekt fra den offentli-
ke i mands minde har afstedkommet rekordhøje priser på ge sektor, hvor både forbruget og investeringerne ventes
bl.a. majs og soyabønner. De stigende fødevarepriser – at bidrage positivt.
og nu igen stigende oliepriser – vil give anledning til sti-
gende forbrugerpriser ikke alene i USA, men også i re- Høj sol over Norge
sten af verden. Alligevel er der på nuværende tidspunkt Der er til gengæld kun få svaghedstegn at spore i den
ikke grund til den store bekymring for inflationen inden norske økonomi, som fortsat nyder godt af de høje olie-
for prognoseperioden. Dertil er den økonomiske situation priser. Væksten vil også være stærk fremover, men tak-
fortsat for svag i de industrialiserede lande, hvor der er ket være en stor indvandring af arbejdskraft kan det med
mange ledige ressourcer. Derfor er der kun en meget lille stor sandsynlighed undgås, at arbejdsmarkedet overop-
risiko for, at de stigende forbrugerpriser sætter gang i en hedes, og omkostningspresset stiger markant. Lønvæk-
inflationær løn-pris-spiral, ligesom virksomhedernes mu- sten bliver godt nok markant højere end i de øvrige nor-
lighed for at øge avancerne fortsat begrænses af den glo- diske lande, men ikke så høj, at Norges Banks inflati-
bale konkurrence og fortsatte krise. onsmål bliver truet. Den stærke økonomiske vækst og en
noget højere kapacitetsudnyttelse tilsiger ikke desto min-
Pengepolitikken er lempelig længe endnu dre, at renten kommer til at stige noget over de kommen-
Det betyder også, at de ledende markedsrenter kun vil de år. Dilemmaet for Norges Bank er imidlertid, at den
stige svagt frem til 2014, hvor ECB og Fed vil begynde norske krone derved risikerer at blive styrket for meget.
at stramme rentepolitikken igen. Vi venter, at ECB vil
hæve renten til 1% mod slutningen af 2014, hvor Fed til Også den svenske økonomi har indtil videre været en sol-
gengæld vil have sat renten op til 2%. Den enorme likvi- strålehistorie. Således steg både BNP og beskæftigelsen i
ditetsudpumpning, som de store centralbanker har stået første halvår 2012 til trods for afmatningen i den interna-
bag over de senere år, udgør fortsat en latent inflationsfa- tionale økonomi. Meget tyder dog på, at væksten aftager
re, hvis ikke den trækkes tilbage, i takt med at de kom- over de kommende kvartaler, men husholdningerne er
mercielle bankers udlånsvillighed atter tager til. Det vil i fortsat i god form, hvilket i kombination med en lidt me-
givet fald kunne føre til højere renter end forudset i re ekspansiv økonomisk politik og den ventede bedring
prognosen. af de internationale konjunkturer vil understøtte væksten
hen over prognoseperioden. Afmatningen i resten af
Pengepolitikken har stor betydning for udviklingen i va- 2012 vil dog sætte sine spor på arbejdsmarkedet. Ledig-
lutakurserne. Derfor vurderer vi også, at USD vil stige heden vil således stige i løbet af vinteren, hvilket vil bi-
over for EUR i løbet af prognosehorisonten, selvom an- drage til at reducere det indenlandske omkostningspres. I
dre forhold som betalingsbalance og gældssituation kan kombination med en fortsat styrkelse af SEK vil inflatio-
dukke op som temaer på markedet. Den historiske bin- nen derfor kunne holdes betragteligt under målsætningen
ding mellem USD og GBP betyder, at også GBP styrkes i på 2%. Riksbanken vil på den baggrund kunne sænke
hovedscenariet over for EUR. Sent i prognoseperioden den pengepolitiske styringsrente yderligere i år. Mod
venter vi, at CHF svækkes over for EUR, mens JPY slutningen af 2013, når økonomien atter tager til i styrke,
svækkes over for USD, i takt med at forholdene på de fi- vil banken påbegynde en ny stramningscyklus.
naniselle markeder gradvist normaliseres.
Finland mærker ligeledes afmatningen i verdensøkono-
Også sikre havne kan rammes mien og er formentlig på vej i recession. Eksporten og
Danmark, Finland, Norge og Sverige tilhører alle den lil- investeringsaktiviteten falder i tråd med udviklingen i
le eksklusive gruppe af lande, som har en toprating hos verdenshandlen, mens en svagere import afspejler pro-
de store kreditvurderingsinstitutter. Det har givet status blemer i den indenlandske efterspørgsel. Det private for-
som sikre havne på de finansielle markeder. Konsekven- brug har efterhånden ikke mange drivkræfter tilbage, og
sen har været markant stigende valutakurser for Norge og dampen vil gå yderligere af, når afmatningen også ram-
Sveriges vedkommende, mens Danmark, som fører fast- mer arbejdsmarkedet. Et nyt opsving drevet af bedre in-
kurspolitik over for euroområdet, har oplevet rekordlave ternationale konjunkturer vil først komme senere i prog-
renter. Faktisk har den danske nationalbank måtte indføre noseperioden. På den baggrund har vi nedjusteret
negative renter på indskudsbeviser for at reducere kapi- vækstskønnet for 2013, som dog fortsat er markant høje-
taltilstrømningen, der også har resulteret i en rekordstor re end gennemsnittet for euroområdet.
valutareserve.
Cheføkonom Helge J. Pedersen
Alligevel præger lav vækst og stor usikkerhed dansk helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 3333 3126
økonomi, som fortsat hænger fast i det dødvande, der si-


■ Overblik

Realvækst, % Inflation, %
2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Verden1) 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 Verden1) 2.8 4.1 2.9 2.9 2.9

USA 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2 USA 1.6 3.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
Euroområdet 1.9 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7 Euroområdet 1.6 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.6
Kina 9.2 10.5 8.0 8.3 8.5 Kina 3.3 5.4 3.1 4.0 3.8
Japan 4.6 -0.7 2.5 1.6 1.1 Japan -0.7 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1

Danmark 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.1 Danmark 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.2
Norge 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.8 Norge 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.1
Sverige 6.2 3.9 1.2 1.8 2.3 Sverige 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.2 2.0

UK 1.8 0.8 -0.4 1.0 1.7 UK 3.3 4.5 3.0 2.2 1.4
Schw eiz 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 Schw eiz 0.7 0.2 -0.7 0.6 1.6

Tyskland 4.0 3.1 0.9 1.4 2.1 Tyskland 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.1
Frankrig 1.6 1.7 0.1 0.8 1.7 Frankrig 0.1 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.9
Italien 1.8 0.5 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 Italien 1.6 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.5
Spanien -0.3 0.4 -1.2 -0.9 1.1 Spanien 2.0 3.1 2.4 2.2 0.5
Holland 1.6 1.1 -0.2 1.2 1.7 Holland 0.9 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.8
Østrig 2.3 2.7 0.9 0.8 1.7 Østrig 1.7 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.9
Belgien 2.4 1.8 -0.4 0.6 1.8 Belgien 2.3 3.5 2.2 1.5 1.7
Portugal 1.4 -1.6 -2.7 0.0 1.2 Portugal 1.4 3.6 2.9 1.5 1.3
Grækenland -3.5 -6.9 -6.6 -0.9 1.2 Grækenland 4.7 3.1 0.5 -0.5 0.0
Finland 3.3 2.7 0.8 1.2 2.8 Finland 1.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.3
Irland -0.8 1.4 -0.2 1.5 2.1 Irland -1.6 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.5
Estland 2.3 7.6 2.3 3.5 3.8 Estland 3.0 5.0 3.7 3.0 2.9

Polen 3.9 4.3 2.8 2.3 3.1 Polen 2.6 4.3 3.9 2.7 2.2
Rusland 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.8 5.0 Rusland 6.9 8.5 6.3 6.8 7.0
Letland -0.3 5.5 4.2 2.5 3.9 Letland -1.1 4.4 2.3 2.5 2.8
Litauen 1.4 5.9 2.7 3.3 3.5 Litauen 1.3 4.1 3.0 2.8 3.0
Indien 9.6 6.9 6.0 6.7 7.2 Indien 9.6 9.5 7.5 6.8 7.0
Brasilien 7.6 2.8 2.6 4.6 4.8 Brasilien 5.0 6.4 5.2 5.4 5.8

Offentlige finanser, % af BNP Betalingsbalance, % af BNP
2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
USA -8.9 -8.6 -7.0 -5.5 -4.1 USA -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0
Euroområdet -6.2 -4.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5 Euroområdet 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0
Kina -1.7 -1.1 -1.5 -2.3 -1.9 Kina 5.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.5
Japan -9.0 -9.7 -9.9 -9.6 -9.0 Japan 3.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.4

Danmark -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5 Danmark 5.5 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.4
Norge 11.3 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.6 Norge 12.4 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.1
Sverige -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -0.5 Sverige 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.5

UK -10.4 -8.3 -7.6 -6.4 -4.7 UK -2.5 -1.9 -2.3 -2.1 -1.3
Schw eiz 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 Schw eiz 14.3 10.4 9.3 8.7 9.9

Tyskland -4.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 Tyskland 5.8 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.0
Frankrig -7.1 -5.2 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 Frankrig -2.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.1 -2.0
Italien -4.6 -3.9 -2.0 -1.8 -1.0 Italien -3.5 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 -0.5
Finland -2.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 Finland 1.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 0.6
Estland 0.2 1.0 -1.5 -0.5 -0.3 Estland 3.8 2.1 -2.3 -1.5 -1.3

Polen -7.8 -5.1 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 Polen -4.7 -4.3 -3.6 -3.0 -3.0
Rusland -4.0 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 Rusland 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.0 2.5
Letland -8.2 -3.5 -2.2 -2.0 -2.0 Letland 3.0 -1.2 -3.2 -3.5 -3.6
Litauen -7.2 -5.5 -2.7 -3.0 -3.0 Litauen 1.1 -1.6 -2.7 -3.0 -3.0
Indien -3.6 -6.6 -7.0 -7.5 -8.0 Indien -3.3 -2.8 -4.0 -3.0 -2.2
Brasilien -2.7 -2.4 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 Brasilien -2.3 -2.1 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8
1) Vægt et gennemsnit af lande i t abellen, om udgør 70,7 %af verdens BNP. Vægt e er beregnet ud f ra købekraf t skorrigeret BNP-niveauer for 2010 i henhold til IM F’s World Economic Out look database


■ Overblik

Pengepolitiske styringsrenter Pengepolitisk rentespænd til euroområdet
30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14
USA 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 2.00 USA -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 1.00
Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Japan1) -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -1.90
Euroområdet 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 Euroområdet - - - - -
Danmark 0.20 0.05 0.15 0.25 1.00 Danmark -0.55 -0.45 -0.35 -0.25 0.00
Sverige 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.50 2.00 Sverige 0.75 0.75 0.50 1.00 1.00
Norge 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.75 Norge 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75
UK 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 UK -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Schw eiz 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 Schw eiz -0.75 -0.50 -0.50 0.00 0.00
Polen 4.75 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.50 Polen 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.50 3.50
Rusland 8.00 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 Rusland 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.75 7.25
Kina 6.00 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.00 Kina 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50 5.00
Indien 8.00 8.00 7.75 7.75 7.50 Indien 7.25 7.50 7.25 7.25 6.50
Brasilien 7.50 7.50 7.50 8.00 10.50 Brasilien 6.75 7.00 7.00 7.50 9.50
1) Spænd til USA

3 mdr. renter 3 mdr. rentespænd til euroområdet
30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14
USA 0.42 0.45 0.50 0.60 2.50 USA 0.13 0.20 0.25 0.10 1.30
Danmark 0.31 0.35 0.40 0.70 1.45 Danmark 0.03 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
Sverige 1.95 1.55 1.50 2.00 2.50 Sverige 1.66 1.30 1.25 1.50 1.30
Norge 2.05 2.02 2.27 2.43 3.16 Norge 1.76 1.77 2.02 1.93 1.96
UK 0.68 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.25 UK 0.40 0.35 0.35 0.10 0.05
Polen 5.04 4.85 4.35 4.30 4.80 Polen 4.75 4.60 4.10 3.80 3.60
Rusland 7.17 7.40 7.50 7.50 8.00 Rusland 6.88 7.15 7.25 7.00 6.80
Letland 0.61 0.55 0.50 0.50 1.20 Letland 0.32 0.30 0.25 0.00 0.00
Litauen 0.89 0.75 0.80 1.10 1.70 Litauen 0.60 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.50

10-årige benchmark statsobligationsrenter 10-årigt rentespænd til euroområdet
30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14
USA 1.64 2.00 2.50 3.00 4.00 USA 0.30 0.25 0.60 0.80 1.35

Danmark 1.08 1.55 1.75 2.05 2.55 Danmark -0.26 -0.20 -0.15 -0.15 -0.10
Sverige 1.38 1.80 2.00 2.60 3.00 Sverige 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.40 0.35
Norge 1.97 2.58 2.86 2.96 3.14 Norge 0.62 0.83 0.96 0.76 0.49

UK 1.48 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.75 UK 0.14 0.00 0.10 0.05 0.10

Polen 4.92 4.80 4.90 5.00 5.50 Polen 3.58 3.05 3.00 2.80 2.85

Valutakurser mod DKK Valutakurser mod EUR og USD
30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14
EUR/DKK 7.45 7.45 7.46 7.46 7.46 EUR/USD 1.26 1.30 1.20 1.15 1.10
USD/DKK 5.93 5.73 6.21 6.48 6.78 EUR/JPY 1) 99 104 98 98 99
JPY/DKK1) 7.54 7.16 7.58 7.63 7.53 EUR/GBP 0.79 0.81 0.78 0.77 0.75
SEK/DKK 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.87 EUR/CHF 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.30
NOK/DKK 1.02 0.99 0.99 1.01 0.99 EUR/SEK 8.36 8.35 8.50 8.60 8.60
GBP/DKK 9.39 9.23 9.62 9.75 9.94 EUR/NOK 7.31 7.50 7.50 7.40 7.50
CHF/DKK 6.20 6.21 6.21 5.96 5.73 EUR/PLN 4.19 4.00 3.92 3.80 3.70
PLN/DKK 1.78 1.86 1.90 1.96 2.01 USD/JPY 78.6 80.0 82.0 85.0 90.0
RUB/DKK 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.23 0.23 USD/GBP 1.58 1.61 1.55 1.50 1.47
LVL/DKK 10.7 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 USD/CHF 0.96 0.92 1.00 1.09 1.18
LTL/DKK 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16 USD/SEK 6.66 6.42 7.08 7.48 7.82
CNY/DKK 0.93 0.90 0.98 1.04 1.11 USD/NOK 5.81 5.77 6.25 6.43 6.82
INR/DKK 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.15 USD/PLN 3.33 3.08 3.27 3.30 3.36
BRL/DKK 2.89 2.94 3.36 3.70 3.99 USD/CNY 6.35 6.36 6.34 6.25 6.10
1) Pr. 100 enheder USD/INR 55.6 55.0 53.0 48.0 45.0
USD/BRL 2.05 1.95 1.85 1.75 1.70


■ Danmark

Væksten lader vente på sig
• Stigende aktivitet frem mod 2014 Trods udsigt til en historisk høj opsparingskvote har vi i
prognosen antaget, at det private forbrug gradvist vil
• Bedre takter på boligmarkedet vokse frem mod udgangen af 2014. Den accelererende
• Forsinket effekt fra offentlig pengestrøm vækst i privatforbruget vil dels blive trukket af et opspa-
ret forbrugsbehov, dels blive hjulpet på vej af en generelt
• Negative renter fra Nationalbanken virker bedre stemning omkring dansk økonomi. Ikke mindst ud-
sigterne til stigende beskæftigelse og en forbedret situati-
Lav vækst og stor usikkerhed præger dansk økonomi, on på boligmarkedet vil øge forbrugslysten i de danske
som fortsat hænger fast i det dødvande, der siden efter- husholdninger henover prognoseperioden.
året 2010 har holdt aktiviteten fastlåst på et stort set
uændret niveau. Vi forventer, dog, at økonomien over Boligmarkedet viser tegn på heling
de kommende kvartaler gradvist vil finde tilbage på Det blødende boligmarked har siden midten af 2008
vækstsporet og vokse med 0,7% i indeværende år, sti- hængt som en tung blyklods om halsen på dansk økono-
gende til 1,9% i 2013 og 2,1% i 2014. mi. Faldet i boligformuen, mindre kreditvækst og histo-
risk lav aktivitet inden for byggeriet har således været en
Den ventede vending i konjunkturerne vil på den inden- af hovedårsagerne til det stagnerende privatforbrug. Med
landske front blive trukket af et stort uforløst potentiale i de seneste revisioner af månedstallene fra Danmarks Sta-
husholdningerne, som gradvist vil blive vekslet til et sti- tistiks Ejendomsprisstatistik tyder meget dog på, at bo-
gende forbrug. Samtidig understøttes væksten af en for- ligpriserne siden årets start har stabiliseret sig. Vi forven-
sinket effekt fra den offentlige sektor, hvor både forbru- ter, at denne udvikling markerer startskuddet på et nyt
get og investeringerne ventes at bidrage positivt. regime på det danske boligmarked, hvor de historisk lave
finansieringsomkostninger og et stort opsparet efter-
Forbrugerne holder på pengene spørgselsbehov efterhånden konsoliderer markedet.
Selv om udbetalingerne fra de opsparede efterlønspenge
nærmer sig DKK 20 mia. (og dermed allerede nu oversti- Priserne vil dog blive holdt i ave af et fortsat stort lager
ger de officielle forventninger), er effekten på detailsal- af usolgte boliger, en lav omsætning og en høj ungdoms-
get og privatforbruget indtil videre udeblevet. I stedet har arbejdsløshed, som reducerer antallet af førstegangskøbe-
mange valgt at øge opsparingen, og husholdningernes re. Fanget mellem disse to modsatrettede kræfter venter
samlede indestående i pengeinstitutterne er steget til det vi, at boligpriserne i resten af året vil ligge stort set ufor-
højeste niveau nogensinde. For dansk økonomi betyder andret. Ind i det nye år venter vi, at huspriserne langsomt
det, at aktiviteten lider under manglen på den vitaminind- vil kravle opad, så de ind i 2014 igen overstiger den for-
sprøjtning, som normalt strømmer fra det private forbrug. ventede inflation. De moderat stigende boligpriser vil
Samtidig amputerer det regeringens muligheder for at først og fremmest blive koncentreret omkring de store
stimulere den økonomiske aktivitet gennem skatte- og byer, hvor den demografiske udvikling tilsiger et opad-
afgiftspolitikken. gående pres på efterspørgslen.

Danmark: makroøkonomiske nøgletal (realvækst i pct. med mindre andet er angivet)
2009 (DKKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Privatforbrug 815 1.9 -0.8 0.6 1.8 1.9
Offentligt forbrug 497 0.3 -1.3 0.4 0.8 0.8
Faste bruttoinvesteringer i alt 314 -3.7 0.2 2.8 4.0 4.7
- offentlige investeringer 33 8.5 5.2 8.5 -12.0 2.5
- boliginvesteringer 80 -7.4 8.8 -5.8 4.7 5.0
- faste erhvervsinvesteringer 201 -4.4 -3.8 5.0 7.1 4.9
Lagerinvesteringer* -20 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eksport 794 3.2 7.0 2.0 2.9 3.5
Import 731 3.5 5.2 2.6 3.6 3.6
BNP 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.1
BNP nominel (mia. DKK) 1,668 1,772 1,783 1,818 1,879 1,949

Bruttoarbejdsløshed, % 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2
Bruttoarbejdsløshed, 1000 personer 164.5 162.1 165.0 168.7 163.2
Forbrugerpriser, % årsvækst 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.2
Lønninger i den privat sektor, % årsvækst 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1
Nominelle huspriser, enfamilie, % y/y 2.8 -2.8 -4.3 1.2 1.9
Betalingsbalance (mia. DKK) 96.9 119.1 105.0 95.0 85.0
- % af BNP 5.5 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.4
Offentlig budgetsaldo (mia. DKK) -47.4 -34.5 -71.0 -40.0 -10.0
- % af BNP -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5
Offentlig gæld, % af BNP 42.9 46.6 45.5 44.5 43.0
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)


■ Danmark

Negative nationalbankrenter er en succes Forbruget er stagneret
Nationalbanken har under gældskrisen været tvunget til
at føre en meget proaktiv pengepolitik for at holde den
danske krone stabil over for euroen. Som et vitalt led i
dette forsvar nedsatte Nationalbanken i starten af juli ren-
ten på indskudsbeviser til -0,20%. Det er første gang i
Danmarkshistorien, at Nationalbanken opererer med ne-
gative renter på indskud. Operationen har indtil videre
haft den ønskede effekt. Den danske krone er stabiliseret
på et solidt niveau over for euroen, uden at Nationalban-
ken har haft behov for at gribe ind på markedet. Det står i
skarp kontrast til situationen i maj og juni, hvor der i alt
blev solgt danske kroner for mere end DKK 36 mia. som
led i forsvaret af den danske fastkurspolitik.
Nationalbankens indlånsrente er negativ
Offentlig pengestrøm sander til
I et forsøg på at løfte økonomien ud af det aktuelle død-
vande har regeringen besluttet at fremrykke offentlige
investeringer for i alt DKK 19 mia. Samtidig er det of-
fentlige forbrug budgetteret til at vokse med DKK 18
mia. i år og yderligere knap DKK 8 mia. i 2013 – sva-
rende til en real vækst på henholdsvis 1,5% og 0,1%.
Trods disse intentioner var der i 1. halvår et fald i det of-
fentlige forbrug på 1,0%, mens de offentlige investerin-
ger ”kun” steg med 3%. Dermed har dansk økonomi ind-
til videre ikke fået det bidrag fra finanspolitikken, som
oprindeligt var planlagt. Forklaringen på den træge ud-
vikling skal dels findes i en lang implementeringsperiode Forbedret konkurrenceevne
for de offentlige investeringer, dels at forbruget i den of-
fentlige sektor historisk set har vist sig særdeles vanske-
ligt at finjustere. Udviklingen betyder, at der er udsigt til
en betydelig ketchupeffekt over de kommende kvartaler,
som vil kunne yde et væsentligt bidrag til at trække
dansk økonomi fri af det aktuelle dødvande, hvis rege-
ringen formår at leve op til sine egne planer.

Forbedret konkurrenceevne trækker eksporten frem
Efter et midlertidigt dyk i årets start er eksporten igen på
fremmarch. Denne udvikling er dels drevet af en fortsat
vækst på de vigtigste eksportmarkeder, dels af en forbed-
ret konkurrenceevne. Det er først og fremmest sket gen-
nem en svækkelse af den handelsvægtede kronekurs, som
har gjort danske varer forholdsmæssigt billigere på de Dekobling mellem beskæftigelse og boligpriser
udenlandske markeder.

Men også det seneste års markante fald i lønstigningstak-
ten i kombination med en forbedring i produktiviteten
betyder, at enhedslønomkostningerne i Danmark nu sti-
ger langsommere end hos de vigtigste samhandelspartne-
re. Og selvom effekten af de lavere enhedslønomkostnin-
ger primært slår igennem på lidt længere sigt, er det en
helt afgørende forudsætning for at kunne fastholde en
fortsat og nødvendig fremgang i eksporten.

Helge J. Pedersen
helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 33333126

Jan Størup Nielsen
Jan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com +45 33333171


■ Sweden

Households prop up the economy
• GDP growth edging higher in coming years … Households keep the wheels turning
Household finances are generally stable. A low inflation
• … but near term, the labour market will weaken level and pay rises jack up households’ purchasing pow-
• Long period of low inflation er. Real disposable incomes will rise by about 2% annu-
ally in 2012-2014. The improved household finances
• Riksbank to cut rates this year, and the SEK weakens have fed through to the housing market. House prices
have started to rise again after having shown a slightly
Good growth weak trend over the past year. Share prices are also im-
The Swedish economy has been surprisingly resilient to portant for households’ propensity to spend, and since
the global turbulence. GDP growth did drop towards the the turn of the year stock markets have recovered some-
end of 2011, but both the GDP and employment rose what. The conditions for households are therefore benign
again during H1 2012. The domestic economy was the so we expect consumer spending to rise noticeably in
key driver of growth, but also foreign trade improved. coming years.
Growth in H1 2012 was fairly high, we think, despite the
possibility of a downward revision to Q2 GDP growth. Investment activity lost pace in Q2 2012 after rising
sharply at the beginning of the year. There are indications
Although the economy has been able to tackle the global that capacity utilisation in several sectors has declined,
obstacles better than expected, GDP growth is still not which reduces the need for new investment. In addition,
sufficiently high to prevent a decline in the demand for investment appetite seems suppressed by the dark clouds
labour. We expect unemployment to rise above 8% dur- still hanging over Europe. The number of housing starts
ing the winter. has already dropped sharply, and total investment will
show a weak trend in coming quarters. We expect the
Prospects for H2 2012 are mixed. We will likely see sub- general need for investments to be modest during most of
dued growth. However, longer out there are factors sug- next year and then increase in 2014 in tandem with the
gesting a pick-up in activity. A benign situation for overall pick-up in activity. An expansionary fiscal policy
households, a slightly more expansionary economic poli- partly based on infrastructure investment will contribute
cy and a global economy that gradually recovers are the to underpinning investment growth over the forecast
factors that will underpin higher GDP growth in coming horizon.
years. However, due to global weakness growth will only
accelerate slowly and unemployment will not decline un- Tough times for the export industry
til the latter part of the forecast period Despite some improvement recently, exports of goods
have stagnated over the past year. The order intake re-

Sweden: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (SEKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 1,533 3.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.1
Government consumption 860 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.5 1.5
Fixed investment 559 7.7 6.2 2.5 1.0 3.5
- industry 74 1.0 7.9 -2.2 2.2 4.4
- residential investment 92 17.2 15.1 -8.7 -2.2 4.5
Stockbuilding* -46 2.1 0.6 -1.1 0.1 0.0
Exports 1,489 11.7 6.9 1.2 4.2 4.9
Imports 1,288 12.7 6.3 -0.4 3.8 5.1
GDP 6.2 3.9 1.2 1.8 2.3
GDP, calendar adjusted 5.9 3.9 1.5 1.8 2.4
Nominal GDP (SEKbn) 3,106 3,331 3,492 3,580 3,703 3,836

Unemployment rate, % 8.4 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7
Employment grow th 1.0 2.1 0.3 -0.2 0.8
Consumer prices, % y/y 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.2 2.0
Underlying inflation (CPIF), % y/y 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.5
Hourly earnings, % y/y 0.4 2.9 3.3 3.2 2.8
Current account (SEKbn) 225 243 259 280 288
- % of GDP 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.5
Trade balance, % of GDP 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7

General govt budget balance (SEKbn) -2 5 -12 -38 -18
- % of GDP -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -0.5
Gross public debt, % of GDP 39.4 38.4 38.1 39.1 39.6


■ Sweden

mains weak, and growth in many key export markets is Rising incomes and consumption
low. Accordingly, goods exports will likely remain sub-
dued during the remainder of 2012. Also the strong SEK
is a problem for exporters. However, it probably affects
profitability rather than volumes. The situation will im-
prove longer out as the SEK will likely weaken and de-
mand gradually rise.

Sweden’s trade in services, which has increased sharply
so far this year, is gaining significance. Exports of ser-
vices have risen from 6% of GDP in 1980 to currently
15% of GDP. The export markets for services are largely
identical to those for goods – where demand is weak.
This suggests that the pick-up in H1 was temporary and
will lose momentum going forward.
Weak global demand a drag on Swedish exports
Low inflation puts pressure on the Riksbank
Despite an increase in the number of employed this year
the labour market still shows signs of weakness. The de-
mand for labour has not been sufficiently strong to keep
unemployment in check. Labour market indicators are
still at benign levels, but have started to soften. We look
for a decline in employment and accelerating growth in
unemployment during autumn and winter.

Labour market weakness is usually accompanied by re-
duced domestic inflation. Also, the SEK strengthening
helps putting a lid on costs. Inflation pressures thus look
set to moderate even further in future, extending the peri-
od of core inflation markedly below the 2% target. This Reduced pressure on domestic market
may cause some concern for the Riksbank as it could
contribute to further accelerating the decline in inflation
expectations.

The door is thus open for monetary easing. With low in-
flation, a weaker labour market, low policy rates interna-
tionally and a risk of further SEK appreciation, the Riks-
bank should cut rates this year. But when the economy
starts to recover in the latter part of 2013, the bank will
embark on a hiking cycle.

A paradigm shift for the SEK
The SEK has become a safe-haven currency in 2012. The
reasons are the modest exposure of the Swedish economy
to troubled areas, solid public finances and a highly com- Paradigm shift for SEK
petitive business sector that generates surprisingly strong
growth and increased interest rate differentials. Going
forward, we expect the SEK to weaken versus the EUR
in step with a gradual stabilisation of the situation inter-
nationally and a narrowing of interest rate differentials.
However, EUR/SEK will remain at levels below 9
throughout the forecast period. The USD will continue to
strengthen against most currencies, including the SEK.

Torbjörn Isaksson
torbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com +46 8 614 8859


■ Norway

Risk of overheating may be the biggest challenge
• Strong domestic demand growth feared. Some export industries are facing difficulties, but
for instance strong growth in electricity exports has put a
• High immigration prevents overheating floor under total export growth. However, while this
• And Norges Bank may proceed with caution trend is probably only temporary, the strong growth in
exports within the engineering industry should continue.
The Norwegian economy is showing few signs of weak- It reflects the increasing significance of the oil services
ness and we see no reason to change our optimistic view industry for Norwegian exports. With sustained high oil
of the economy going forward. Growth looks set to be prices, prospects are good for this type of exports in the
high, but with increased labour immigration an overheat- years ahead. Over the forecast period we also see growth
ing of the economy and sharply rising costs will probably in traditional exports rising, driven by stronger traditional
be avoided. Wage growth will be much higher than in export market growth.
neighbouring countries, but not so high as to push infla-
tion above target. However, strong economic growth and The exceptionally strong growth in Norwegian oil in-
higher capacity utilisation point to higher interest rates vestment has been vital for the oil services industry.
during the next couple of years. But fears of excessive Growth will likely slow in coming years, but it will still
NOK strengthening limit Norges Bank’s room for ma- remain very high. In our view, capacity limitations in
noeuvre in monetary policy. many areas will prove the key obstacle to growth in this
industry. Pressures in this part of the economy seem to be
Strong consumption growth one of main reasons why the wage negotiations, despite
Strong wage and employment growth and very low infla- all the talk of competitiveness and the so-called
tion currently boost consumer purchasing power. It is “frontfagmodell” (meaning that the negotiations start in
therefore no surprise that consumption growth in H1 the industries particularly exposed to competition), result
2012 was very high after last year’s weaker-than- in pay rises in manufacturing way beyond those in rival
expected trend. And with an initial high level of savings countries.
and a sustained strong labour market we see consumption
growth continuing unabated during the remainder of the We also see fairly strong growth in mainland investment
year and into 2013. In 2013 and 2014 consumption going forward, although the pace is not likely to match
growth should slow down as a result of higher interest that of oil investment growth. The propensity to invest
rates and more moderate employment growth. should be high with strong production gains in large parts
of the corporate sector. Higher credit margins and tighter
Higher exports, but lower mainland investment bank credit standards could slightly dampen investment
Despite weak growth in export markets, a strong NOK growth, but this effect will likely be largely offset by the
and wage growth well above levels in other countries, overall very low interest rate level. A possible sharp es-
mainland exports have remained at a higher level than calation of the euro crisis and a new financial crisis

Norway: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009(NOKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 1,028 3.7 2.4 3.7 3.5 3.0
Government consumption 531 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5
Fixed investment 516 -5.2 6.4 7.2 4.9 3.7
- gross investment, mainland 349 -2.5 8.0 3.2 3.7 3.7
- gross investment, oil 144 -14.3 9.1 20.0 8.0 4.0
Stockbuilding* 14 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports 929 1.8 -1.4 1.6 1.1 1.3
- crude oil and natural gas 416 -4.8 -6.2 2.5 0.0 0.0
- other goods 277 2.5 -0.4 0.0 2.0 2.5
Imports 660 9.9 3.5 3.0 3.9 3.0
GDP 2,357 0.7 1.4 3.4 2.4 2.3
GDP, mainland 1,876 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.8

Core inflation, % y/y 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.1
Annual w ages, % y/y 3.6 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3
Current account (NOKbn) 313.6 393.9 437.1 482.9 497.5
- % of GDP 12.4 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.1
Trade balance, % of GDP 12.4 13.8 14.6 15.1 14.8

General govt budget balance (NOKbn) 284.5 375.1 400.0 435.0 450.0
- % of GDP 11.3 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.6


■ Norway

could, however, result in much tighter credit standards, Norwegian manufacturing production rises
and this is probably one of the key risks to the Norwe-
gian economy.

Inflation to edge higher
Strong domestic demand growth will contribute to strong
production growth in the years ahead. However, thanks
to high immigration we do not expect labour shortages to
become a major problem. Nor do we expect major bot-
tlenecks in the labour market despite shortages in some
skilled areas. Consequently, wage growth should not pick
up sharply, but still remain relatively high at just above
4% in the years ahead.

Wage growth just above 4%, strong domestic demand
Higher income growth -> higher consumption growth
growth and a relatively stable NOK suggest that inflation
will edge higher in coming years. Core inflation may rise
to 2% over the forecast period, up from 1% at present,
but to drive inflation above the 2½% target, cost growth
would have to be higher.

Gradually higher interest rates
Against the background of strong growth, a relatively
tight labour market, somewhat higher inflation and
slightly improved prospects globally, Norges Bank will
want to hike interest rates during the forecast period. Al-
so the steady increases in house prices and credit growth
from high levels suggest higher interest rates. However,
with below-target inflation and domestic economic
growth largely matching capacity growth, Norges Bank Supply and demand growth almost identical
will not be in a hurry. In the absence of rate hikes in
neighbouring countries, an aggressive monetary policy
line would only strengthen the NOK to levels that would
cause inflation to drop further below target.

At the time of writing the NOK has strengthened quite
significantly against the EUR, but measured in terms of
the trade-weighted exchange rate, the NOK strengthening
is far more modest. We expect Norges Bank to hike its
policy rate twice next year, but these moves should not
result in a long-lasting period of NOK strengthening. In
2014 the pace of monetary tightening may be increased
further, but as interest rates in other countries are also
likely to go up, Norges Bank can hike its policy rates
without risking excessive NOK strengthening. NOK not so strong in trade-weighted terms

There is a clear risk that the high domestic demand
growth could result in increased capacity problems, high-
er wage growth and consequently gradually higher infla-
tion than we project. If so, Norges Bank will act more
aggressively, accepting the effect on the NOK. And the
NOK strengthening would contribute to preventing infla-
tion from rising above target. If Norges Bank chooses to
focus less on meeting the inflation target and more on
preventing surging house prices and household credit
growth, the result may be a combination of higher inter-
est rates and a stronger NOK. However, judging from the
bank’s rhetoric it is not about to change its priorities.

Erik Bruce
erik.bruce@nordea.com +47 2248 4449


■ Finland

Finnish economy has cooled down across the board
• Exports will not recover until 2013 for instance, turned down again in the first half of the
year. In our forecast, we assume export volumes to con-
• Growth in private consumption will slow down tinue declining in the latter part of the year. The decreas-
• Employment will fall less than previously forecast ing world trade growth will weaken production expecta-
tions globally and decrease investment needs. This is bad
• Public sector deficit will decrease news to the Finnish export industry, as its main products
are raw materials, production supplies and investment
As expected, economic activity has decreased in Finland goods. We expect international demand to strengthen
across the board after the first quarter of this year. Ex- moderately in 2013. Export volumes will increase but
ports have contracted, investment has continued to de- growth will still remain modest.
cline and the growth in private consumption has slowed
down. Imports have decreased more than exports, which Growth in private consumption to slow down
is, in particular, a sign of weakening in domestic demand. Private consumption increased at a brisk pace in Q1 this
What is positive, is that employment has not yet weak- year compared to Q4 2011. This was a result of the one-
ened. However, it is probably only a question of time be- off additional salary items based on collective agree-
fore it does. ments, which boosted retail sales, and the car tax hike
that entered into force at the beginning of April, which
Based on preliminary data, the economy contracted in Q2 made people purchase new cars earlier than they other-
compared to the previous quarter. Our forecast assumes wise would have. The growth in retail sales volumes
that the decline continues in Q3. This means that we be- slowed down markedly in Q2 and in July it stopped alto-
lieve the Finnish economy is in recession, just like many gether. Car sales, too, have decreased sharply. Thanks to
other European countries. As in our previous forecast, the strong beginning of the year, private consumption
however, we believe the recession will not last long and will significantly boost the economic growth this year
there is no need to change the previous GDP growth despite the recent cooling.
forecast of 0.8% for this year. On the other hand, interna-
tional trade has cooled down more than expected, which For the remaining part of the year and for 2013, the out-
indicates that an export-led recovery from the recession look for private consumption will remain weak. The in-
will be much slower than previously estimated. That is crease in salaries and pensions as well as the decrease in
why we have lowered our forecast for economic growth mortgage interest rates will support households' purchas-
in Finland in 2013 to 1.2% (previously 1.6%). In 2014, ing power. The growth in purchase power will, however,
we expect growth to speed up to 2.8% as especially the be restrained by tax increases and the expected weaken-
North-European economies will recover. ing in employment. Taxes will increase as the value add-
ed tax will be raised and no inflation adjustments of in-
Exports will not recover until 2013 come limits will be made in the income tax brackets. In
Finnish goods exports have varied widely over the past addition, the rather rapid growth in consumer prices will
year – and the variation has taken place around a decreas- continue and erode purchasing power. Consumer prices
ing trend. New orders received by the industrial sector, are expected to rise by 2.5% next year. The household
Finland: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 94 3.3 2.5 2.2 1.3 2.0
Government consumption 43 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
Fixed investment 34 1.9 6.8 -3.2 0.6 3.8
Stockbuilding* -2 0.5 1.1 -0.3 0.3 0.1
Exports 64 7.5 2.6 -1.7 2.6 7.1
Imports 62 6.9 5.7 -3.0 2.9 6.2
GDP 3.3 2.7 0.8 1.2 2.8
Nominal GDP (EURbn) 172.3 178.8 189.4 196.0 201.6 210.1

Industrial production, % y/y 8.3 0.9 -3.0 2.0 4.0
Hourly w ages, % y/y 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.0 3.0
Current account (EURbn) 2.9 -2.2 -0.5 0.4 1.2
- % of GDP 1.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 0.6
Trade balance (EURbn) 2.6 -1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.8
- % of GDP 1.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.4

General govt budget balance (EURbn) -4.5 -1.2 -1.0 -0.1 1.0
- % of GDP -2.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5
Gross public debt (EURbn) 90.0 93.0 99.0 104.1 108.4
- % of GDP 50.3 49.1 50.5 51.6 51.6

■ Finland

savings rate continues to decline which means that an in- Cooling of world trade brings problems to exports
creasing part of income is used for consumption. The ac-
commodating monetary policy is well timed as the con-
sumption outlook would be much gloomier without it.

Investment to decline, employment to weaken
The bleak short-term outlook for exports, production and
consumption as well as the major uncertainty over the
Euro area developments will eat away economic agents'
confidence and thus decrease willingness to invest and
weaken employment prerequisites. Machinery and
equipment investment increased sharply last year but
turned down again already in the beginning of this year.
The decline is expected to continue at least for the rest of
this year. Construction investment is also expected to de-
Weak sentiment points to an outright fall in GDP
cline. The decrease in the number of granted construction
permits indicates that the decline in residential and other
construction will continue and even steepen during the
latter part of the year. Reconstruction will compensate
for the decline in new construction.

We expect both the traditional machinery and equipment
investment and construction investment to increase again
in 2013. A precondition for this, however, is that the
global economy will grow as forecast, the Euro area debt
crisis will clear up and confidence will return.

The labour market has provided very positive surprises
this year. Employment measured with the number of
people has not weakened (although the number of work- A decline in GDP is bad news for employment
ing hours has probably started to decrease) and the num-
ber of unemployed people has not started to increase.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has stabilised at
7.5% in recent months. The unemployment rate for 2012
seems to remain at 7.7% (the previous forecast was
8.0%), which is lower than in 2011. We still expect un-
employment to increase, especially in 2013 with the un-
employment rate rising to an average of 8%.

Slower decrease in public sector deficit
Tax revenues will increase at a slower pace due to the
sluggish economic growth, even though income taxation
will be tightened and value added tax will be raised. The
public sector deficit will, however, continue to decline.
The deficit is estimated to decrease to 0.1% of GDP in Confidence + labour market = weak consumption
2013 and turn into a small surplus in 2014. The govern-
ment's annual borrowing need will remain at EUR 4–6bn
during the forecast period, which will increase the public
debt close to 52% of the value of total production already
in 2013.

Pasi Sorjonen
pasi.sorjonen@nordea.com +358 9 165 59942


■ USA

Moving slowly forward
• If a perfect storm of fiscal chaos is avoided … After all, the economy’s fundamentals are much im-
proved. Businesses are highly profitable, banks have re-
• ... progress towards full employment in 2014 capitalised and the deleveraging process in the private
• Stronger underlying inflation pressures set to emerge sector has come a long way. Still, households – especial-
ly younger families – are likely to continue the process of
• Fed to start tightening by mid-2014 balance sheet repair. Home prices seem to have bot-
tomed, but the expected slow price increases provide lim-
US economic growth is likely to remain moderate in the ited support to household net worth going forward.
next few years through 2014, constrained by household
deleveraging, fiscal restraint, subpar global demand, In 2014 growth is expected to slow to a pace more in line
slower working-age population growth and a deteriora- with potential. Full employment, defined as an unem-
tion of job skills. ployment rate of 7%, should be achieved in late 2014.

The US economy clearly lost momentum during Q2 QE3 only in case of policy errors
2012, but recent economic data paint a slightly brighter The effects of the drought in the Midwest on food com-
picture, pointing towards GDP growth of 1½-2% in H2 modity prices and a rebound in oil prices are likely to
2012. Stronger disposable income growth, easier finan- push headline inflation meaningfully higher by mid-
cial conditions and bank lending standards, continued 2013.
housing recovery, the end of the payback for the warm
winter weather and less drag from seasonal adjustment With the business cycle adjustment more or less com-
distortions suggest that economic momentum will pick pleted in 2014, signs of stronger underlying inflation
up slightly in the near term. pressures are projected to emerge in the latter part of the
forecast horizon. As a result, we expect the Fed to start
However, while the threat from the Euro-area crisis cur- raising policy rates and gradual unwind its securities
rently appears less menacing, US fiscal challenges holdings around mid-2014.
around the end of this year imply that risks to the US out-
look over the next two to three quarters remain tilted to In the more immediate future, however, the Fed is likely
the downside. The probability of another US recession is later this month to postpone the expected first rate hike
uncomfortably high at 20-25%, in our view. from late 2014 to mid-2015. In our view, the central bank
is currently overestimating the labour market slack and
On the other hand, an orderly resolution of the pending hence underestimating the longer-term risk of inflation.
fiscal issues, as assumed in our baseline scenario, should Additional asset purchases (QE3) by the Fed are not ex-
pave the way for stronger confidence and hence brighter pected unless the Euro-area crisis blows up again or if
economic prospects in 2013, when growth is projected to US policymakers fail to resolve the pending fiscal issues
exceed potential assumed at around 2% annually through in an orderly manner.
most of the year.

USA: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (USDbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 9,845.9 1.8 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1
Government consumption and investment 2,967.2 0.6 -3.1 -2.0 -0.9 -0.3
Private fixed investment 1,703.5 -0.2 6.6 9.4 6.9 6.9
- residential investment 354.2 -3.7 -1.4 11.7 9.4 12.4
- equipment and softw are 898.3 8.9 11.0 8.3 6.9 6.0
- non-residential structures 451.1 -15.6 2.8 10.2 4.5 3.5
Stockbuilding* -154.2 1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Exports 1,587.5 11.1 6.7 4.3 5.2 5.3
Imports 1,976.2 12.5 4.8 4.2 5.7 5.4
GDP 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2
Nominal GDP (USDbn) 13,973.7 14,498.9 15,075.7 15,716.1 16,276.1 16,885.0

Industrial production, % y/y 5.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.3
Consumer prices ex. energy and food, % y/y 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.2
Current account (USDbn) -442.0 -465.9 -471.5 -569.7 -506.5
- % of GDP -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0

Federal budget balance (USDbn) -1,293.5 -1,300.0 -1,100.0 -900.0 -700.0
- % of GDP -8.9 -8.6 -7.0 -5.5 -4.1
Gross public debt, % of GDP 95.2 99.5 106.5 112.0 116.2


■ USA

A perfect storm of fiscal chaos hopefully avoided Moving slowly forward
Three US fiscal issues pose a threat to the economic out-
look: the so-called fiscal cliff, another increase in the
Treasury debt ceiling and the need for longer-term fiscal
sustainability.

As we approach the end of the year, attention will focus
even more sharply on the risk of the fiscal cliff – the un-
fortunate coincidence of about USD 600bn in tax in-
creases and spending cuts that will take effect next year,
should Congress not act to change current law. Failure to
scale back the fiscal cliff could knock as much as 4¼%
off real GDP in 2013, enough to push the US economy
back into recession. Moreover, the Treasury is likely to
hit the debt ceiling again in December. Assuming it uses
Slow progress towards full employment in late 2014
the accounting strategies that have been employed in the
past, the Treasury seems likely to be able to finance gov-
ernment operations under the current limit until some-
time in February 2013, by which point Congress must
raise the debt ceiling. Failure to do so would imply de-
fault on some of the US government’s obligations.

With both political parties in full campaigning mode,
none of these issues are likely to be resolved before the
presidential elections on 6 November. As seen too often
during the past two years, there will most likely be plenty
of political brinkmanship and the accompanying uncer-
tainty will probably come at a cost to the economy and
the financial markets later this year and in early 2013.
The longer the uncertainty persists, the more likely it will Stronger underlying inflation pressures in 2014
hurt confidence, hiring, investment and spending.

However, our expectation is that when pressured by the
threat of another recession, policymakers will take action
to reduce the fiscal drag on growth (to around 0.5% of
GDP) either during the so-called lame duck session after
the election or in January when the new government
takes office. Obviously, the outcome of the November
elections will be very crucial to how the fiscal debate
plays out. In this context, the congressional election re-
sults will be at least as important as who wins the White
House, Obama or Romney.

Extending the otherwise expiring tax cuts and other eas-
ing measures and repealing the automatic federal spend- Recession if economy is pushed off the fiscal cliff
ing cuts would significantly reduce the risk of recession, 1 1
% points Fiscal policy impact on GDP growth % points
but at the cost of a substantially larger budget deficit.
0 0
Thus, with an extension of current policy federal debt
held by the public would rise from 70% of GDP today to -1 -1

around 90% by 2022 compared to around 60% if current
-2 -2
law is not changed. In other words, apart from resolving
the fiscal cliff issue and raising the debt ceiling policy- -3 -3
makers will also soon have to address the need to restore
-4 -4
longer-term fiscal sustainability in order to shift the risk
Current law Current policy
to the economic outlook from negative to positive. -5 -5
2011 2012 2013
Source: Nordea Marktes, Congressional Budget Office and Office of
Johnny Bo Jakobsen Management and Budget
johnny.jakobsen@nordea.com +45 3333 6178


■ Euro area

Restore confidence to end the recession
• Gradual recovery from year-end Restoring confidence is key to recovery
Why do we expect a recovery when numerous problems
• Helped by smarter interventions remain unsolved and deleveraging has only just begun?
• Significant downside risks to inflation Well, because we believe that decisions have been taken
and will be taken in the coming months that are decisive
• Spain heading for deeper recession and will help gradually restoring confidence in the Euro
area. After all, monetary policy is extremely lenient, ex-
The Euro area is in recession. The second quarter showed port markets are growing decently, the EUR is weaken-
GDP contraction and the third quarter most likely will ing and even if more fiscal tightening will be needed in
too. We expect a recovery starting around year-end and a the years to come at least the pace of tightening will be
very gradual pick-up of momentum during 2013. In 2014 slower. Confidence is the missing ingredient that will al-
growth will still be somewhat below the pre-crisis “nor- low these factors to work and pave the way for a very
mal” level. gradual recovery.

We have made a modest upward revision to growth this Restoring confidence takes more time than eroding it,
year, but otherwise kept the Euro-area forecast roughly and we do not in any expect that the debt crisis is about
unchanged compared with our May forecast revision. We to end. Solving the crisis requires massive deleveraging
have revised down our growth forecast for Spain in 2013 in the years to come, structural reforms, growth and
after the announcement of new austerity measures during building new credible institutions to prevent the same
the summer. kind of crisis from happening again. Restoring confi-
dence also requires that Greece starts implementing the
Recovery from year-end reforms agreed with the Troika.
It is fair to say that signs of recovery have been scant up
to this point. However, the most forward-looking indica- Interventions will work this time
tors for growth in the Euro area as a whole have at least In terms of the decisive action, the ECB seems ready to
stopped falling and stabilised at low levels. bring out Big Bertha – more or less the entire arsenal of
instruments is being considered. We believe ECB inter-
The contraction in Q2 was not as severe as one might ventions in the secondary market – done smarter this
have expected given the financial stress during that peri- time – combined with intervention in the primary market
od with Greek post-election chaos and a Spanish bank by the EFSF/ESM will reduce the level of stress in finan-
bailout. Some lagged adverse impact on the economy is cial markets and help restore the confidence that is need-
likely to be visible in the Q3 growth numbers, but we ex- ed to embark on a path to recovery.
pect Q3 to mark the bottom of the current business cycle. When the ECB intervened through its old programme
(the SMP) it did not work very well. Rather it reduced
Another reason that the Q2 numbers were not as bad as the incentive for eg Italy to do the right thing. Therefore,
feared is Germany. German growth remained resilient interventions to reduce financial stress never became
during the first half of the year driven to a large extent by credible. This time, the ECB will intervene with strict
the export sector and to some extent also the German conditionality – ie only in countries that have a bailout
consumers. At present, the survey-based indicators point programme with promises to reduce budget deficits and
to slightly negative growth in Germany in Q3.

Euro area: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 5,128 0.9 0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.3
Government consumption 1,987 0.7 -0.3 0.2 -0.9 -0.8
Fixed investments 1,735 -0.2 1.6 -3.0 1.1 2.4
Stockbuilding* -48 0.7 0.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.5
Exports 3,272 11.0 6.3 1.6 4.9 1.6
Imports 3,155 9.4 4.1 -2.3 2.9 1.4
Net exports* -0.8 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.2
GDP 1.9 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7
Nominal GDP, EUR bn 8,917 9,155 9,410 9,512 9,725 9,804

Industrial production, % y/y 4.3 2.7 -2.6 2.9 5.8
- core inflation** 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0
Current account, bn EUR -3.2 -1.1 33.1 21.0 17.0
Current account, % of GDP 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0
General government budget balance, % of GDP -6.2 -4.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5
General government gross debt, % of GDP 85.3 87.2 90.9 93.9 96.4



Økonomisk Perspektiv, september 2012 (DK)

Økonomisk Perspektiv, september 2012 (DK)

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