Energy crisis in Pakistan.

2. ENERGY CRISIS IN
PAKISTAN
A CRITICAL ANALYSIS BY :
NOMAN AHMED

3. ENERGY :
• Life on earth is driven by energy, it is a fundamental requirement and
energy is crucial to provide for adequate living such as food, water,
health care, education, shelter and employment
• Electricity is the most convenient form of energy available to human
beings. This energy is fundamental to human well being and prosperity,
it is indeed a matter of life and death
• Without sufficient energy the wheel can't run on roads, industry and
agriculture can't sustain, hospitals and operation theaters can't function,
schools and laboratories can't work and public and private sector
businesses can't operate

4. WHAT IS ENERGY CRISIS:
Energy crisis is any great shortfall in the supply of energy to an
economy.
It is usually to the shortage of oil, electricity or other natural
resources.

5. ENERGY SECTOR IN PAKISTAN
• At present energy is generated by only three modes
1. Thermal 65%
2. Hydel 33%
3. Nuclear 2
• Two companies that produces electricity in Pakistan
1. WAPDA
2. KESC

6. SUPPLY AND DEMAND
• The total power production capacity in country is 19,500MW
• Country is falling short of 4500MW
• The demand of electricity is growing at the annual rate of 9%,while supply
of electricity is increasing at comparatively slower rate of 7%
• According to a survey
1. Household sector 44.2%
2. Industries 31.1%
3. Agriculture 14.3%
4. Government sector 7.4%
5. Commercial 5.5%
6. Street lights 0.7%

7. PAKISTAN INDIGENOUS NATURAL
RESERVES:
• Conventional gas 30TCF, tight gas 40TCF, coal 185 billion tones,
oil 436bbls
• Energy consumption mix(%): gas 43.2, oil 29, electricity 16.2,
coal 10.4
• Energy supply by source: gas 48.3%, oil 32.1%, hydro electricity
10.6%, coal 7.6%, nuclear 0.6%

8. CONTI…
•Oil consumption: power 40%, industry 9.50%,
agriculture 0.60%, transport 47.40%, total 16.85 million TOE
•Gas consumption: power 35.5%, transport 4.6%,
industry 25%, commercial 2.6%, total 29.32 million TOE

10. Petrol prices:

12. Consumption and production of gas:

14. ELECTRICITY GENERATION(%):
• In Pakistan Hydel 33.6, gas 27.3, oil 35.1, coal 0.1, nuclear
2
• Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW
capacity, but there are plans to increase this capacity
substantially
• Power generation through wind is in initial stages in
Pakistan and currently 06 MW has been installed in first
phase in Jhampir through a Turkish company and 50 MW
will be installed shortly.

15. POWER SECTOR:
• Prior to 1998, there were two vertically integrated utilities, i.E, KESC,
which served the karachi area and WAPDA which served the rest of the
country.
• The power sector was restructured in 1998 with the creation of pepco
(pakistan electric power company), wapda is responsible for water and
hydropower development whereas pepco is vested with the responsibility of
thermal power generation, transmission, distribution and billing
• Later on, wapda’s power wing has been structured into distinct corporate
entities comprising of 4 gencos,10 discos and one trans-co (NTDC)
• National electric power regulatory authority, NEPRA, is another important
player. It regulates the power sector, determines the tariffs and efficiencies,
technologies and performance standards
• Gencos
• Water and power development authority (WAPDA)

16. CONTI…
• Karachi electric supply company (KESC)
• Independent power producers (IPPS)
• Pakistan atomic energy commission (PAEC).
• There are around 25 independent power producers that
contribute significantly in electricity generation in Pakistan
(IPPS’ total installed capacity:6,365mw). In the total
installed capacity, the share of public sector is around 70%,
and the private sector is 30% (now it is about 40%)
• Capacity 22797 MV, average dependable capacity in summer
15000 MW, at peak period the supply demand gap even
reached 8000MV( energy demand-supply gap is projected
about 57% in 2030)

17. LOADSHEDDING :
• Consequently, load-shedding is a common phenomenon
through power shutdown
• Nearly 53 percent of the Pakistan's population remains
without electricity far more than 8 hours daily through out
the year
• Due to this crisis the daily life has come to a standstill.
Even more ominously the shortage is endangering the future
economic and social prospects of the country, putting its
very fabric under strain.

18. Energy sources:
Hydel energy:
• Pakistan is endowed with a hydel potential of approximately 41722 MW, most of
which lies in the KPK, northern areas, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab.
Wind energy:
• The wind map of Pakistan has been developed after extensive analysis carried out
by national renewable energy laboratory (NREL), us, with USAID, PMD and
alternative energy development board (AEDB). The total potential of wind power in
the country has been estimated very high, only Gharo-keti Bunder wind corridor
potential is estimated to be 50000MV
Solar Enrgy:
• Pakistan receives 16-21 MJ/m2 per day of solar radiation as an annual mean value,
with 19 MJ/m2 per day over most areas of the country
• The annual mean values of sunshine duration lie between 8 and 10 hours per day all
over the country, except for the northern parts.

19. Comparison of energy:
• Among all renewable energy sources, the solar energy is the most
abundant and widely spread in the country, Pakistan has potential of
more than 100,000 mw from solar energy
Thar coal:
• In 1992, the geological survey of Pakistan (GSP) discovered more than
185 billion tons of lignite reserves in Thar coalfield

20. CONTI…
• Pakistan is blessed with abundantly available and inexhaustible renewable
energy (RE) resources, which if tapped effectively can play a considerable
role in contributing towards energy security and energy independence of the
country.

21. CONT:
• Irrational product mix (about 67% of electricity generation is from
thermal sources which is very expensive). In case of thermal power
choice of fuel and technology has a large impact on the cost of power
generation—diesel power being the most expensive, followed by
furnace oil; and coal being the cheapest. Pakistan is producing its
thermal power mainly from furnace oil.

22. CONTI…
• Rapid demand growth (at about 6 to 8 percent per annum) .It has been projected that the
primary commercial energy demand would increases at 4.3, 7.3 and 10.4% per annum
average growth rates and would reach at 150, 320 and 670 MTOE by the year 2030 under
LEG (low economic growth), BAU (business as usual), and HEG (high economic growth)
scenarios respectively.
• The actual production is well below the installed capacity, the transmission infrastructure
in Pakistan is old and creaking. It further suffers from relative lack of investment into its
maintenance and development, system losses in the power sector of Pakistan at 19 percent
• Why?
• Till late 1970s, the share of hydel power in the fuel mix was about 70 percent and thermal
power was about 30 per cent
• In Pakistan, the government has monopolized the generation, transmission and
distribution of electricity, the monopoly does not have to worry about the competition, it
has no one to answer to, it works with complete impunity
• Tanenbaum et al. (1992) argue that "when the state owns, nobody owns; and when nobody
owns, nobody cares". This then is the situation in Pakistan

23. GOVT FAILURE:
• WAPDA and ministry for power badly failed to project the population
growth, looking at the environment, analyzing the international energy
markets, studying the developments in the energy sector
• Poor quality of governance lead to corruption and line losses, non recoveries
• Weak regulator
• The technologies to exploit renewable resources are not much promising in
its current state.
• No attempt has ever been made to formulate a comprehensive and integrated
energy policy for the country.
• The absence of a single energy institution and lack of coordination and
synergy between various institutions dealing with different sub-sectors of
energy is an important issue that has never been addressed.
• Introduction of independent power producers (IPPS)

24. CONTI…
• The answer for this failure is that executive jobs in these institutions
are distributed at the whim of powerful, without any regard to the
merit and on the basis of nepotism and favoritism
• In such a case why should WAPDA or any one at the MINISTRY
care. And if someone does who is going to listen to them
• Lack of vision, lack of political will, chronic one man rule (even in
the civilian set ups or so called democratic setups)
• Absence of rule of law with no individual liberty, protection of
property rights and no peace and security
• In most countries production is in public hands while transmission
and distribution is in private hand but in Pakistan the case is inverse

25. CONTI…
• Due to all these Pakistan electric power sector is characterized by chronic
problems of low productivity, higher system losses
• Despite nearly 8% annual increase in the demand of electricity, no power
plant or power generation unit has been installed for last many years in
Pakistan

26. ENERGY FROM COAL:
• Compared to china (78% of energy from coal), USA ( 60 %
) and India ( 53 % ) Pakistan produces 10 % of energy from
coal. Why?

27. COAL MINING AND ASSOCIATED
DISASTERS
• Pakistan is blessed with huge deposits but so far we
do not have the requisite expertise to remove the
overburden and extract the coal. Thereby, owing to
non-availability of modern equipment to extract deep
seated coal, our workers always remain susceptible to
life dangers.

28. CONT:
• The government considers Thar coal development as
a flagship project. Thar coal projects have been
enlisted as early harvest projects by the CPEC (china-
Pakistan economic corridor), Sindh engro coal mining
company (SECMS) and Sino Sindh resources (pvt.)
Limited (SSRL) have been prioritized as top priority
projects to be financed by Chinese institutions. There
is a complete synergy between the federal and the
provincial government of Sindh. Total power
generation anticipated from these three projects is
2400 MW in 2018.

29. THAR COAL RESOURCES
In the Thar area, Pakistan
has the 7th largest coal
reserve in the world and yet
Pakistan only produces
0.2% of its electricity from
coal. If all the oil reserves of
Saudia Arabia & Iran Put
together, these are
approximately 375 Billion
Barrels, but A Single Thar
Coal Reserve of Sind is
about 850 Trillion Cubic
Feet, which is More Than Oil
Reserves of Saudia & Iran.

30. EFFECTS OF ENERGY CRISIS IN
PAKISTAN..
EFFECT ON INDUSTRY
EFFECT ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT
UNEMPLOYMENT
EFFECT ON AGRICULTURE

31. INDUSTRIAL PROBLEMS DUE TO POWER
CRISIS
• The prevailing energy crisis in Pakistan is taking away 2 percent (or rs400
billion) of the economy, despite the government has spent rs1.1 trillion as
subsidies on the sector in the last four-year which accounts for 2.5 percent of
the total volume of economy.
• Industrial sector represents as one of the most grievous victims of the crisis
because it is most energy intensive sector
• The crisis has increased the industrial cost of production, lead to delay in
orders, output losses from 12 to 37 percent with in Punjab, employment has
not been reduced significantly due to alternative energy arrangements by
firms (Rihanna Siddiqui et al.)
• Units being shut down or run at low capacity, layoffs taking place, and
overall loss of competitiveness of the country, all of which is also hurting the
economy and comparative advantage

32. LOW FOREIGN INVESTMENT:
• Another consequence for this sector is flight of capital; not only foreign but
local investors are investing, for instance, in Bangladesh, moving textile
units there.
• If this crisis is not solved immediately, the industrial growth may be reversed
completely, allowing foreigners to decimate local industry and innovation
forever
• The industrial sector, like all others in the country, is not aware of the
financial losses being incurred as a result of inefficient practices which lead
to waste of energy, even the most modern of the industries in Pakistan do not
have an internal energy auditing and monitoring policy in place which is a
key to energy conservation and management.
• Reduce energy consumption through applying energy conservation and
management measures

33. EFFECT ON AGRICULTURE:
Load shedding is destroying the agriculture sector because there
are 200,000 electric tube wells in the country to irrigate the
land, which could not be run due to electricity shortage
decrease in agriculture production and food shortage in the
country

34. UNEMPLOYMENT:
According to the labor department sources,
approximately 800,000 laborers have been
dispelled from their jobs. While, 400,000 to
800,000 laborers were receiving less wage.

35. WHAT SHOULD WE DO TO
OVERCOME THIS??????

36. SOLUTION:
• A well planned policy shift should be made to correct the
energy-mix by shifting our focus from oil-based thermal
power to hydel and nuclear power (possible in long term
only). Focus should be on run of the river projects. Expedite
work on non-controversial hydel projects such as diamer
bahsa(gilgit), dasu*punjab and bunji(Sindh) dams etc
• Provincial governments should generate energy and start
building power plants on their own (article 157(2) of
constitution allow it)

37. SOLUTION:
A GOOD PLANNING …
1.SHORT TERM PLAN
2.MEDIUM TERM PLAN
3.LONG TERM PLAN

38. SHORT TERM PLAN
INCREASE IPPS(INDEPENDENT POWER
PRODUCER)
REACTIVATE CLOSED POWER STATIONS
RENEW POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
IMPORT ELECTRICITY TILL CRISIS

39. MID-TERM PLAN:
UTILIZATION RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
INSTALLATION OF SOLAR,WIND, BIOGAS AND
WIND PROJECTS IN ELLIGIBLE AREAS

40. LONG-TERM PLAN:
Developing and installing coal based powerhouses
Initiate energy agreements with friendly countries
exploration of more oil,gas and coal fields
upgradation in training courses for engineers

41. CONT.:
• In order to meet the massive demand of energy, Pakistan has
four external options: the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline,
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas
pipeline, Pak-Qatar gas pipeline project and import of
Liquefied natural gas (LNG). These are long term options
again
• The formation of a single ministry in charge of the entire
energy sector, the formulation of a long-term integrated
policy
• In the long run private sector should be encourage to play
role in transmission and distributions with strong and
independent regular to safeguard the interest of the poor
people and society

42. CONT.:
• Pakistan top ten cities create 50,000 tons of waste which is
enough to produce 6,000MV of electricity. The
government should support these cities to initiate Biomass
projects

43. CONTI…
• Conservation of energy is a huge source of adding to the energy
supply. Both volunteer, legal and financial measures may be
adopted.
• Public-private partnership in hydropower sector should be
reinvigorated. This will help in raising financial resources for
these projects
• Political consensus on the big hydro projects should be
developed

44. CONTI…
• The government may import electricity from the neighboring
countries as a temporary measure to minimize the adverse
impact of high cost energy mix. Around 1500MW or even
higher could be available from India & Iran and has the
potential of reducing the 4000-7000MW shortfall by 30-50%.
• The government may convert the idle capacity in the thermal
sector into coal-based plants to bring down national average
cost. In the short-term, it is important to set up coal-fired power
plants based on imported coal, and in the medium-to-long-term,
this must be substituted with locally extracted coal.

45. CONCLUSION
. the energy issue is still top priority of the government. the
government is intended to fulfill its commitments realizing the fact
that good governance and regulation will contribute to a
sustainable, affordable and reliable energy system. the
government is sincerely committed to add electricity generation of
10,400 megawatts to Pakistan's national grid by 2017-18 along
with reduction in the cost of generation and transmission losses.

46. CONCLUSION
• under the plan vision 2025, the government is
committed in power generation to 45,000 mw
with provision of uninterrupted, affordable and
clean ‘energy for all’. thus the government is
encouraging private investment to achieve
power generation mix through development of
indigenous energy resources particularly hydel,
coal, etc. to achieve zero load-shedding along
with the reduction in average electricity rates.