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6/8/2016
1
Enduring Community Value from Mining
(ECVM): Tracking & Mapping Mine Expenditure
Principal Research Leader
Dr Boyd Blackwell
UNE Business School, Armidale NSW
Acknowledgement
(Presentation to: Social Acceptance and Mineral
Development Workshop, Flinders University, Victoria
Square, Adelaide, 26 May 2016)
6/8/2016
2
3
3
Regional Economies – ECVM
ECVM Project Outputs
• Key Commonwealth Milestone:
• E… C… V… M…
• 25 months remaining – ends 30 June 2017
4
Output 2.2:
• Data will be produced on the size and flows of costs and
benefits generated by mining operations.
• Spatial and economic predictive models of a mine's
impacts will be used.
• Case studies and scenario planning tools will be
developed for communities to manage risks.
• An input-output model of remote Australia will be
produced.
6/8/2016
3
Sub Projects – All connected through ECVM*
• Most of us have or do cover labour and labour mobility issues
• Much has already been produced e.g.
http://crc-rep.com/research/regional-economies/enduring-community-valu
e-mining/project-outputs
5
Member (Uni) Position Project/s % complete End date
Dr Boyd
Blackwell (UNE)
PRL Mine expenditure
Mine employment
Toolkit
I-O Model
S&I
70% (25
months
remaining)*
Jun 2017
Anne Fordham
(UniSA)
PhD CSR 60%* Dec 2016
Stuart Robertson
(UNE)
PhD Mine Lifecycle
Planning
Complete* Submitted
Kate Rampellini
(Curtin)
PhD Spatial analysis &
ABM
30%* > Jun 2017
Paulina
Sepúlveda Bravo
PhD Economic ABM 75%* Dec 2016
Supporting Impact
• ECVM Toolkit*
• To help bring industry, government, and communities together in
negotiating planning and management of the mine and community
• Will link research outputs at rear, middle main modules, aide
memoire – check list
• Get parties negotiating and planning early
• Tools
• Employment impact model
• Input-Output model of remote Australia
• Etc.
• Examples: Senate Inquiry FIFO, Leigh Creek Transitional Policy, Jabiru
authority expiration, Pilbara – multitude of opportunities
6
6/8/2016
4
Member (Uni) Posit
ion
Project/s Audience Research
outputs*
Dr Boyd
Blackwell (UNE)
PRL Mine expenditure
Mine employment
Toolkit
I-O Model
S&I
Online Atlas
ALL
ALL
Communities
Ninti One Ltd
ALL
ALL
Model*
Model*
Guide, web
Model*
Various*
Mapping &
Analytical Tool
Anne Fordham
(UniSA)
PhD CSR ALL but
Industry
New CSR
Framework*t
Stuart Robertson
(UNE)
PhD Mine Lifecycle
Planning
Communities,
government,
companies
Dependency
testing
method*t
Kate Rampellini
(Curtin)
PhD Spatial analysis &
ABM
Government,
Industry
Integrative
Model*t
Paulina
Sepúlveda Bravo
PhD Economic ABM Government,
industry
Impact Model*t
• Notes: * = in addition there are articles, papers, lectures / presentations, conferences, etc.
• t = PhD theses will be available as well; ALL includes communities, government, companies,
Ninti One Ltd
Sub Projects – Audience Table, Summary*
7
Social Acceptance and Mineral Development
• How is ECVM delivered? Land, Labour and Capital
• ECVM projects provide tools that can deliver an
evidence base for whether ECVM is being delivered
• ECVM critical to obtaining social acceptance
• Early information to communities: trust, social
acceptance
• Governments and Companies make decisions,
communities can only influence them
• Ethically, without social acceptance, difficult for mining
to proceed in good faith
8
6/8/2016
5
Mapping and Tracking Mining
Project: Recent Findings
Employment concentration and vulnerability - SA
10
6/8/2016
6
Employment income concentration and vulnerability –
NT*
11
Employment concentration and vulnerability - WA
12
6/8/2016
7
13
14
6/8/2016
8
Leigh Creek, employment impact model mine closure
15
Roxby Downs, employment impact model mine closure*
16
0
-1,012
-73
-11
-91
-160 -137 -132
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Employment(No.ofPeople)
Industry
6/8/2016
9
APY Lands, employment impact model resource dev.*
17
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Employment(No.ofPersons)
Industry
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Employmentincome($)
Millions
Industry
Ranger, employment impact model mine closure – Likely case
18
6/8/2016
10
Ranger, Employment impact model mine closure – Worse case
19
Ranger, Employment impact of mine closure – Best Case
20
6/8/2016
11
Online Atlas Development*
• SA prepared, NT and WA being added
• Trialled mine impact employment models
21
I-O Model of Remote Australia – Early prelim. results*
22
Australia
6/8/2016
12
I-O Model of Remote Australia – Early prelim. results* cont….
23
Remote Australia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
%ofAustralianjobs
Industry
Social Acceptance and Mineral Development
• Range of projects that can provide an evidence base
for whether ECVM is being delivered
• ECVM critical to obtaining social acceptance
• Providing information to communities early can help
in building trust and gaining social acceptance
• Governments and Companies make decisions,
communities can only influence them
• Ethically however, without social acceptance, difficult
for mining to proceed in good faith
• resulting in a burden placed on society – for which
governments are ultimately accountable and responsible
24
6/8/2016
13
25

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Enduring Community Value from Mining (ECVM): Tracking and mapping mine expenditure

  • 1. 6/8/2016 1 Enduring Community Value from Mining (ECVM): Tracking & Mapping Mine Expenditure Principal Research Leader Dr Boyd Blackwell UNE Business School, Armidale NSW Acknowledgement (Presentation to: Social Acceptance and Mineral Development Workshop, Flinders University, Victoria Square, Adelaide, 26 May 2016)
  • 2. 6/8/2016 2 3 3 Regional Economies – ECVM ECVM Project Outputs • Key Commonwealth Milestone: • E… C… V… M… • 25 months remaining – ends 30 June 2017 4 Output 2.2: • Data will be produced on the size and flows of costs and benefits generated by mining operations. • Spatial and economic predictive models of a mine's impacts will be used. • Case studies and scenario planning tools will be developed for communities to manage risks. • An input-output model of remote Australia will be produced.
  • 3. 6/8/2016 3 Sub Projects – All connected through ECVM* • Most of us have or do cover labour and labour mobility issues • Much has already been produced e.g. http://crc-rep.com/research/regional-economies/enduring-community-valu e-mining/project-outputs 5 Member (Uni) Position Project/s % complete End date Dr Boyd Blackwell (UNE) PRL Mine expenditure Mine employment Toolkit I-O Model S&I 70% (25 months remaining)* Jun 2017 Anne Fordham (UniSA) PhD CSR 60%* Dec 2016 Stuart Robertson (UNE) PhD Mine Lifecycle Planning Complete* Submitted Kate Rampellini (Curtin) PhD Spatial analysis & ABM 30%* > Jun 2017 Paulina Sepúlveda Bravo PhD Economic ABM 75%* Dec 2016 Supporting Impact • ECVM Toolkit* • To help bring industry, government, and communities together in negotiating planning and management of the mine and community • Will link research outputs at rear, middle main modules, aide memoire – check list • Get parties negotiating and planning early • Tools • Employment impact model • Input-Output model of remote Australia • Etc. • Examples: Senate Inquiry FIFO, Leigh Creek Transitional Policy, Jabiru authority expiration, Pilbara – multitude of opportunities 6
  • 4. 6/8/2016 4 Member (Uni) Posit ion Project/s Audience Research outputs* Dr Boyd Blackwell (UNE) PRL Mine expenditure Mine employment Toolkit I-O Model S&I Online Atlas ALL ALL Communities Ninti One Ltd ALL ALL Model* Model* Guide, web Model* Various* Mapping & Analytical Tool Anne Fordham (UniSA) PhD CSR ALL but Industry New CSR Framework*t Stuart Robertson (UNE) PhD Mine Lifecycle Planning Communities, government, companies Dependency testing method*t Kate Rampellini (Curtin) PhD Spatial analysis & ABM Government, Industry Integrative Model*t Paulina Sepúlveda Bravo PhD Economic ABM Government, industry Impact Model*t • Notes: * = in addition there are articles, papers, lectures / presentations, conferences, etc. • t = PhD theses will be available as well; ALL includes communities, government, companies, Ninti One Ltd Sub Projects – Audience Table, Summary* 7 Social Acceptance and Mineral Development • How is ECVM delivered? Land, Labour and Capital • ECVM projects provide tools that can deliver an evidence base for whether ECVM is being delivered • ECVM critical to obtaining social acceptance • Early information to communities: trust, social acceptance • Governments and Companies make decisions, communities can only influence them • Ethically, without social acceptance, difficult for mining to proceed in good faith 8
  • 5. 6/8/2016 5 Mapping and Tracking Mining Project: Recent Findings Employment concentration and vulnerability - SA 10
  • 6. 6/8/2016 6 Employment income concentration and vulnerability – NT* 11 Employment concentration and vulnerability - WA 12
  • 8. 6/8/2016 8 Leigh Creek, employment impact model mine closure 15 Roxby Downs, employment impact model mine closure* 16 0 -1,012 -73 -11 -91 -160 -137 -132 -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 Employment(No.ofPeople) Industry
  • 9. 6/8/2016 9 APY Lands, employment impact model resource dev.* 17 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Employment(No.ofPersons) Industry 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Employmentincome($) Millions Industry Ranger, employment impact model mine closure – Likely case 18
  • 10. 6/8/2016 10 Ranger, Employment impact model mine closure – Worse case 19 Ranger, Employment impact of mine closure – Best Case 20
  • 11. 6/8/2016 11 Online Atlas Development* • SA prepared, NT and WA being added • Trialled mine impact employment models 21 I-O Model of Remote Australia – Early prelim. results* 22 Australia
  • 12. 6/8/2016 12 I-O Model of Remote Australia – Early prelim. results* cont…. 23 Remote Australia 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% %ofAustralianjobs Industry Social Acceptance and Mineral Development • Range of projects that can provide an evidence base for whether ECVM is being delivered • ECVM critical to obtaining social acceptance • Providing information to communities early can help in building trust and gaining social acceptance • Governments and Companies make decisions, communities can only influence them • Ethically however, without social acceptance, difficult for mining to proceed in good faith • resulting in a burden placed on society – for which governments are ultimately accountable and responsible 24