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Axis Business Cycles Fund
(An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme)
Fund Name & Benchmark Product Labelling Product Risk-o-meter Benchmark Risk-o-meter
AXIS BUSINESS CYCLES FUND
(An open ended equity scheme following
business cycles based investing theme)
Benchmark: Nifty 500 TRI
This product is suitable for
investors who are seeking*
• Capital appreciation over long term
• An equity scheme investing in equity &
equity related securities with focus on
riding business cycles through dynamic
allocation between various sectors and
stocks at different stages of business cycles
in the economy Nifty 500 TRI
NFO opens: 2nd February 2023
NFO closes: 16th February 2023
Understanding a Business Cycle?
Business cycles in an economy are typically
characterized by the fluctuations in economic activity
measured by real GDP growth and other
macroeconomic variables
During these ups and downs, individual companies
and sectors often perform differently depending
on various factors affecting their business
A business cycle determines the fortunes of a
company and by extension the performance of its stock
price over the medium term
A thematic fund targeting ‘Business Cycle investing’
aims to create wealth by identifying a portfolio of
companies that are most suited to perform within a
prevailing business cycle
Phases of business cycle
Expansion
Peak
Slowdown
Trough
Source: Axis MF Research. Chart is for illustrative purpose only
2
Trough
Taper
tantrum
Slowdown
Slowdown in the economy and first
wave of the Covid 19 pandemic
India’s Business Cycle
A Lookback at India’s growth through a ‘business cycle’ lens
Source: Bloomberg, Government of India, Axis MF Research. Data as on 31st October 2022
Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. The trend line indicates MSCI Smallcap rebased to 100 on 31st October 2012.
Segmentation into a business cycle is based on an internal evaluation of macro parameters. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of
recommendation or investment advice.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Oct
12
Jan
13
Apr
13
Jul
13
Oct
13
Jan
14
Apr
14
Jul
14
Oct
14
Jan
15
Apr
15
Jul
15
Oct
15
Jan
16
Apr
16
Jul
16
Oct
16
Jan
17
Apr
17
Jul
17
Oct
17
Jan
18
Apr
18
Jul
18
Oct
18
Jan
19
Apr
19
Jul
19
Oct
19
Jan
20
Apr
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Jul
20
Oct
20
Jan
21
Apr
21
Jul
21
Oct
21
Jan
22
Apr
22
Jul
22
Oct
22
Expansion/Peak
Normal economic growth and revival of business confidence
Expansion
Post lockdown recovery and slow
transformation to digitalization of the
economy
3
Indicators of an Economic cycle
Slowdown
Peak
Expansion Trough
Economic Activity
Credit Growth
Capex
Capacity utilization
Interest rate
Unemployment
Rebounding Stabilizing Declining
Rising Above Normal Above normal but falling
Rising High
Low
Declining
Rise in government capex
Low Rising
Rise in private capex Moderation in private capex
Begins to grow Strong Declining
Bottoming out
Below normal
Declining
High
No private capex,
Rise in government capex
Weak
4
Building a Cycle Driven Portfolio
Typical business cycle funds, identifies sectors on the basis of the economic cycle
Source: Bloomberg, Axis MF Research. Chart is for illustrative purposes only
Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Segmentation into a business cycle is based on an internal evaluation of macro
parameters. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment
advice.
Commodity cyclicals
Oil, steel, gas, mining
Financials
Banks, insurers, real estate
Growth
Discretionary Goods, IT
Growth defensives
Support services, food retailers
Value defensives
Telecoms, pharma, utilities
Industrial cyclicals
Engineering, aerospace
Consumer cyclicals
Retailers, house builders
5
Investing - A Game of Identification
Right place, right time critical to investing success
The fund will endeavour to identify economic trends and sector specific cycles
coupled with a bottom up stock specific approach to build a portfolio
ECONOMIC
CYCLE
(TO IDENTIFY
CYCLES IN
MACRO DRIVEN
SECTORS)
SECTOR
CYCLE
(TO IDENTIFY
SECTORS WITH OWN
CYCLES DRIVEN BY
INDUSTRY SPECIFIC
FACTORS)
Capacity
Utilization
Government
Action
Capital
Availability
Shareholder
Value
Pricing
Efficiency
External
Factors
Economic
Capacity
Consumer
Sentiment
Demand
Dynamics
6
Why sector selection is critical?
Favorable alpha* can be generated by picking the right sectors at right time
Source: BSE, NIFTY Indices, Axis MF Research, Data for FY23TD as of 30th November 2022
Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. BSE sectoral indices used as proxy for sectoral performance. Average of top 3
performing sectors; Average of bottom 3 performing sectors; NIFTY 50 performance for every financial year is considered for the above
illustration. *Alpha is defined as the difference between fund returns and benchmark returns. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23TD
Top 3 sectors Bottom 3 sectors NIFTY 50
7
Sectors do not follow a fixed template
Source: BSE, NIFTY Indices, Axis MF Research, Data for FY23TD as of 30th November 2022
Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. BSE sectoral indices used as proxy for sectoral performance. Sectors
mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. IT – Information Technology, FMCG – Fast Moving Consumer Goods
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23TD
FMCG FMCG Capital Goods Pharma Cons Durables Metals Cons Durables Pharma Telecom Metals Power Capital Goods
Auto Pharma Auto Cons Durables IT Oil & Gas Capital Goods Power Auto Auto Utilities Auto
Pharma IT IT Auto FMCG Infra Power Utilities Power IT Metals FMCG
Cons Durables Banks Pharma Capital Goods Oil & Gas Cons Durables Infra Infra Metals Realty Telecom Banks
Infra Cons Durables Telecom Banks Auto Banks Banks Telecom Infra Capital Goods Realty Nifty
IT Nifty Nifty IT Utilities Utilities Telecom Oil & Gas Utilities Infra IT Power
Telecom Oil & Gas FMCG Nifty Nifty Realty Utilities Auto Capital Goods Power Capital Goods Telecom
Nifty Realty Metals Telecom Banks Power Oil & Gas Nifty Oil & Gas Pharma Cons Durables Cons Durables
Banks Infra Oil & Gas Power Pharma Capital Goods FMCG FMCG Pharma Nifty Infra Pharma
Utilities Auto Banks Utilities Telecom Auto Nifty Banks FMCG Banks Oil & Gas Realty
Oil & Gas Capital Goods Power FMCG Power FMCG Realty Capital Goods Nifty Cons Durables Nifty Utilities
Power Telecom Utilities Realty Infra Nifty Auto Metals Realty Utilities Pharma Infra
Realty Utilities Infra Infra Metals Pharma Metals IT Banks Oil & Gas Banks Oil & Gas
Capital Goods Power Cons Durables Oil & Gas Capital Goods Telecom IT Realty IT Telecom Auto IT
Metals Metals Realty Metals Realty IT Pharma Cons Durables Cons Durables FMCG FMCG Metals
8
The
Current
Business Cycle
3
9
The Current Context
How We See India’s Business Cycle Today?
2000 -
2010
2020 -
++
2010 -
2020
10
B2B+B2C
Source: Axis MF Research. Picture is for illustrative purpose only. B2B – Business to Business; B2C –
Business to Consumer; B2B + B2C – Business to Business to Consumer
B2B V/s B2C
Investing Differences
B2C companies typically
have relatively a lower debt
profile
B2C companies typically have
pricing power and stable
margins
B2B business models typically
have cyclicality due to the
overall demand environment
B2B business can often be
capital intensive businesses
and might have longer
gestation cycles
11
Source: Axis MF Research. For detailed Investment strategy please refer SID/KIM of the Scheme available on the website
B2B – Business to Business; B2C – Business to Consumer
1998-2002 2003 – 2005 2006 – 2008 2009 – 2012 2013 – 2020 2021 – 2024
• Lower commodity
prices
• NPA cycle was
bottoming out
• Real Estate
slowdown
• Early signs of
commodity price
increase
• Electricity Act- Opening-
up of power sector
• Higher Government
spend
• Strong private
participation in power,
steel and cement
• Commodity prices rise
as China gains
prominence
• Pickup in residential
real estate
• Excess capacity build
up post ’08-’09 crisis
• Financial crises dents
global risk appetite
• Demand drops due to
global slowdown and
domestic policy
paralysis
• Lower commodity
prices
• Excess supply across
sectors
• Deleveraging & market
Consolidation takes
place
• Balance sheet quality
improves across large
companies
• Government supports
private sector through
targeted incentives
Global
Outlook
Negative Positive Very Positive Negative Positive
Start of an upcycle led by:
 Improving domestic
demand and consumption
patterns
 Improving business
prospects drive investments
in business capacity
 Government support by
way of PLI incentives and
public infrastructure
spending
Expansion Peak Slowdown
Slowdown
& Trough Expansion
Trough
Capex cycle
in India
Multiple drivers for investment cycle pick-up
Government Capex is the Central & State Government spend CAGR during the specific periods,
Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce, Spark Research. Data as on 30th November 2022 12
Factors Expected To Unleash Capex Upcycle
Total Capex as a share of GDP is expected to leapfrog to 36%
of GDP FY27 from 29.5% of GDP in FY22
48%
Low Corporate debt/
GDP
18.4%
Low Household
debt to GDP
Decadal high sales in
real estate and Best
affordability in
25 years
Private consumption is
7.5% above
pre-pandemic levels
Export share has
risen to 2.2%
Pickup in Supply-side
Government Reforms
Impaired loans at
10-year low
Capacity utilization
@78.4 above
long term average
Source: Morgan Stanley, Data as of 31st October 2022
Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. The above graph is used to explain the concept and is for illustration
purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Mse – Morgan Stanley estimates 13
Key focus areas
4 Pronged Investment Opportunity
Integrating India in global supply chain
Made In India
Rapid infrastructure ramp up
Focusing on de-carbonisation
14
Integrating India in global supply chain Focus
area #1
This implies that the next decade may be led by the manufacturing sector,
just as the 2000s were led by the emergence of new service sectors.
Textiles Pharmaceuticals
& Related
Chemicals (ex
Pharma) &
Products
Automobiles & its
Components
Food
Processing
Metals & its
Products
Computers,
Electronics &
Optical Products
Market Size
US$18.6bn
CAGR: 11.8%
Share: 8.1%
Market Size
US$29.3bn
CAGR: 10.3%
Share: 8.6%
Market Size
US$35.8bn
CAGR: 9.1%
Share: 10.5%
Market Size
US$39.6bn
CAGR: 9%
Share: 11.6%
Market Size
US$47.7bn
CAGR: 5.8%
Share: 14%
Market Size
US$8.4bn
CAGR: 7.8%
Share: 1.7%
Market Size
US$8.4bn
CAGR: 8.3%
Share: 2.5%
Existing Prospective
Source: CSO, CMIE Axis MF Research. Note: Market size is as of F21 and CAGR is for F2012-2021. Share is the share of respective sectors in
manufacturing GVA; Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only.
The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice. CAGR – Compounded annual growth rate
15
India’s export market share is expected to rise from 2.2%(2021) to 4.5% by 2031
Made In India
Sectors exposed to this
theme:
Chemicals
Machinery and Equipment
Auto Ancillaries
Electronics
India is holistically addressing issues around production. Focusing on indigenization, launching PLI
scheme may provide potential to lower fiscal & current account deficits
Source: CSO, AxisMF Research; Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative
purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice. Indigenization - Indigenization is the
act of making something more native
16
Focus
area #2
Rise in domestic
demand for high value
imported items
Import substitution &
Product indigenization
Research &
Development
Building technological
& manufacturing
capabilities
Government incentives
(Production Linked
Incentives)
Creating a
manufacturing
ecosphere to meet
domestic &
international demand
Defence - Strong thrust toward local
manufacturing
Focus
area #2
F25 defence production
404 435 454 477 467 551
148 148 128 92 146
119
142 154 174 159 173
193
741 789 811 791
846
927
1750
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
F17 F18 F19 F20 F21 F22 F25 target
Defence Public Sector Undertakings Ordnance Factory Board
Other Public Sector Undertakings/Joint Ventures Defence Private Companies
Rs bn
The government has plans to procure Rs 5 lakh crore of
military equipment domestically over the next 5 years.
It is currently also reviewing all 'Buy Global' (termed by
the government) products for indigenization.
The target is to reach zero imports and 90% of
equipment approvals over the last two years have been
for 'Make in India' products.
Source: Ministry of Defence, Axis MF Research. Data as on 31st October 2022
17
Rapid infrastructure ramp up Focus
area #3
Multilateral funding to infra
Government Infra focus through NIP, NMP, PM Gatishakti & others.
Source: BofA, Axis MF Research. Data as on 31st October 2022. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors
mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice 18
Advantage → Heavy Industries Focus
area #3
Multilateral funding to infra
Sectors exposed to this theme: Industrials Railways Electricals Metals Utilities
Historically in a capex upcycle, Industrial sector's margins double, working capital reduces by 20x, ROEs triple
and valuation multiples quadruples
Source: BofA Global Research Company - L&T, Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for
illustrative purposes only. Note: *FY21 other income inflated on back of extraordinary cash buffers maintained by L&T Adjusted to normal run
rate by assuming 50% post tax other income.
19
Focus on de-carbonization Focus
area #4
India now aligned with large economies on de-carbonization efforts
CO2 emission/ GDP & carbon neutral targets
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
USA (RHS) China (LHS) Japan (RHS) Germany (RHS) India (RHS) UK (RHS)
1971 2000 2018 2030 Target
2050 2060 2050 2045 2070 2050
Source: BofA Global Research, Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for
illustrative purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice. RHS – Right Hand
Side; LHS – Left Hand Side; 20
Focus on de-carbonization Focus
area #4
Sectors exposed to this theme:
Renewables
Industrials
Automation
Business theme
Energy
efficiency
Emission
reduction
Renewable
Energy
Sub-theme
Industries
Buildings
Power gensets
Highly polluting industries
Increasing share of
renewables
in electricity mix
Key products/ service
Motors, drives, robots, sensors,
automation and control systems
Building Management system,
retrofits
CPCB IV complaint diesel gensets,
natural gas gensets
Electrostatic precipitators, Flue-gas
desulfurizers, waste-heat recovery systems
EPC, design and O&M
Automation and control systems
High energy materials and power
density
Equipment providers in transmission
and distribution
Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only.
The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice 21
Introducing
Axis Business Cycles
Fund
(An open ended equity scheme following
business cycles based investing theme)
22
Business Cycle Investing
A Case for Conviction Driven Investing
Forward Looking Investing Need For High Conviction Sell Discipline
• Focus on Medium term Growth
triggers
• Identify opportunities to benefit
from earnings upgrades and/or
valuation re-rating
• Meaningful allocation to sectors
basis research indicators
• Always Plan for Contingency -
Nothing goes to Plan. Plan to
diversify
• Restructure portfolios once
industry cycle plays out
• Transition to new portfolio basis a
changing business cycle
23
Investment Approach
Our Approach to Business Cycle Investing
Economic Cycle
(Macro Factors)
Sector Cycle
(Industry Specific Factors)
Growth and inflation
Monetary and Fiscal policy
Regulatory changes
Capex and consumer spending
Industry analysis
Company position
Competitive advantage
Growth prospects
Top down approach + Bottom up approach = Hybrid approach to investing
Looking for cyclical opportunities with a medium term view
Sector selection will be based on nature of sectors
24
For detailed Investment strategy please refer SID/KIM of the Scheme available on the website
Why Axis Business Cycles Fund?
Hybrid Approach:
Mix of Top Down &
Bottom Up Approach
Dynamic theme
Style:
Quality focused
Flexibility for a more
aggressive stance in terms of
sector over/ under weight
No Market cap bias
25
For detailed Investment strategy please refer SID/KIM of the Scheme available on the website
Fund Facts
Name
Axis Business
Cycles Fund
Fund Manager
Mr. Ashish Naik and
Mr. Hitesh Das (for
Foreign Securities)
Benchmark
NIFTY 500 TRI
Category
Thematic
Minimum Application
Rs. 5,000 and in
multiples of Rs. 1 thereafter
NFO Period
2nd Feb 2023 – 16th Feb 2023
For detailed Investment strategy please refer SID/KIM of the Scheme available on the website
26
Axis Strategies
Current Portfolio Allocation is based on the prevailing market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the
equity markets. ^Open-ended Equity-Linked Savings Scheme with a 3-year lock in. The bubbles in the chart are proportionate to their sizes
respectively. Market caps are defined as per SEBI regulations as below: a. Large Cap: 1st -100th company in terms of full market capitalization.
b. Mid Cap: 101st -250th company in terms of full market capitalization. c. Small Cap: 251st company onwards in terms of full market
capitalization. Please refer annexure for type of scheme for each of the above-mentioned schemes.
The right strategy for the right time
Axis
Bluechip
Fund
Axis Long
Term Equity
Fund^
Axis Flexi
Cap Fund
Axis Growth
Opportunities
Fund
Axis
Focused
25 Fund
Axis
Business
cycles
Fund
Axis
Midcap
Fund
Axis Small
Cap Fund
Large Cap
ELSS
Flexi cap
Large &
Midcap
Focused
Business
cycles
theme
Midcap
Smallcap
Active
Returns
Active Risk
Looking for cyclical opportunities
with a medium term view
27
Product Labelling
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Fund Name & Benchmark Product Labelling Product Risk-o-meter Benchmark Risk-o-meter
AXIS BUSINESS CYCLES FUND
(An open ended equity scheme following
business cycles based investing theme)
Benchmark: Nifty 500 TRI
This product is suitable for
investors who are seeking*
• Capital appreciation over long term
• An equity scheme investing in equity &
equity related securities with focus on
riding business cycles through dynamic
allocation between various sectors and
stocks at different stages of business
cycles in the economy
*The product labelling assigned during the New Fund Offer is based on internal assessment of the Scheme Characteristics or model portfolio and the same may vary
post NFO when actual investments are made
Nifty 500 TRI
29
Product Labelling
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
29
Product Labelling
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
29
Disclaimer and Risk Factors
Data as on 30th Nov 2022.
Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sector(s) / Stock(s) / Issuer(s) mentioned above are for the purpose of disclosure of the portfolio of the
Scheme(s) and should not be construed as recommendation. The fund manager(s) may or may not choose to hold the stock mentioned, from time to time. Investors are requested to
consult their financial, tax and other advisors before taking any investment decision(s).
Sector(s) / Stock(s) / Issuer(s) mentioned above are for the purpose of disclosure of the portfolio of the Scheme(s) and should not be construed as recommendation. The fund
manager(s) may or may not choose to hold the stock mentioned, from time to time.
Statutory Details: Axis Mutual Fund has been established as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882, sponsored by Axis Bank Ltd. (liability restricted to Rs. 1 Lakh).
Trustee: Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Ltd.
Investment Manager: Axis Asset Management Co. Ltd. (the AMC).
Risk Factors: Axis Bank Limited is not liable or responsible for any loss or shortfall resulting from the operation of the scheme. This document represents the views of Axis Asset
Management Co. Ltd. and must not be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Neither Axis Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Limited nor Axis Asset Management Company
Limited, its Directors or associates shall be liable for any damages including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from the use of the information contained herein. No
representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained herein. The AMC reserves the right to make modifications
and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time.
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
30
Thank You

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Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF

  • 1. Axis Business Cycles Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme) Fund Name & Benchmark Product Labelling Product Risk-o-meter Benchmark Risk-o-meter AXIS BUSINESS CYCLES FUND (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme) Benchmark: Nifty 500 TRI This product is suitable for investors who are seeking* • Capital appreciation over long term • An equity scheme investing in equity & equity related securities with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles in the economy Nifty 500 TRI NFO opens: 2nd February 2023 NFO closes: 16th February 2023
  • 2. Understanding a Business Cycle? Business cycles in an economy are typically characterized by the fluctuations in economic activity measured by real GDP growth and other macroeconomic variables During these ups and downs, individual companies and sectors often perform differently depending on various factors affecting their business A business cycle determines the fortunes of a company and by extension the performance of its stock price over the medium term A thematic fund targeting ‘Business Cycle investing’ aims to create wealth by identifying a portfolio of companies that are most suited to perform within a prevailing business cycle Phases of business cycle Expansion Peak Slowdown Trough Source: Axis MF Research. Chart is for illustrative purpose only 2
  • 3. Trough Taper tantrum Slowdown Slowdown in the economy and first wave of the Covid 19 pandemic India’s Business Cycle A Lookback at India’s growth through a ‘business cycle’ lens Source: Bloomberg, Government of India, Axis MF Research. Data as on 31st October 2022 Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. The trend line indicates MSCI Smallcap rebased to 100 on 31st October 2012. Segmentation into a business cycle is based on an internal evaluation of macro parameters. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice. 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Oct 18 Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Expansion/Peak Normal economic growth and revival of business confidence Expansion Post lockdown recovery and slow transformation to digitalization of the economy 3
  • 4. Indicators of an Economic cycle Slowdown Peak Expansion Trough Economic Activity Credit Growth Capex Capacity utilization Interest rate Unemployment Rebounding Stabilizing Declining Rising Above Normal Above normal but falling Rising High Low Declining Rise in government capex Low Rising Rise in private capex Moderation in private capex Begins to grow Strong Declining Bottoming out Below normal Declining High No private capex, Rise in government capex Weak 4
  • 5. Building a Cycle Driven Portfolio Typical business cycle funds, identifies sectors on the basis of the economic cycle Source: Bloomberg, Axis MF Research. Chart is for illustrative purposes only Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Segmentation into a business cycle is based on an internal evaluation of macro parameters. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice. Commodity cyclicals Oil, steel, gas, mining Financials Banks, insurers, real estate Growth Discretionary Goods, IT Growth defensives Support services, food retailers Value defensives Telecoms, pharma, utilities Industrial cyclicals Engineering, aerospace Consumer cyclicals Retailers, house builders 5
  • 6. Investing - A Game of Identification Right place, right time critical to investing success The fund will endeavour to identify economic trends and sector specific cycles coupled with a bottom up stock specific approach to build a portfolio ECONOMIC CYCLE (TO IDENTIFY CYCLES IN MACRO DRIVEN SECTORS) SECTOR CYCLE (TO IDENTIFY SECTORS WITH OWN CYCLES DRIVEN BY INDUSTRY SPECIFIC FACTORS) Capacity Utilization Government Action Capital Availability Shareholder Value Pricing Efficiency External Factors Economic Capacity Consumer Sentiment Demand Dynamics 6
  • 7. Why sector selection is critical? Favorable alpha* can be generated by picking the right sectors at right time Source: BSE, NIFTY Indices, Axis MF Research, Data for FY23TD as of 30th November 2022 Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. BSE sectoral indices used as proxy for sectoral performance. Average of top 3 performing sectors; Average of bottom 3 performing sectors; NIFTY 50 performance for every financial year is considered for the above illustration. *Alpha is defined as the difference between fund returns and benchmark returns. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23TD Top 3 sectors Bottom 3 sectors NIFTY 50 7
  • 8. Sectors do not follow a fixed template Source: BSE, NIFTY Indices, Axis MF Research, Data for FY23TD as of 30th November 2022 Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. BSE sectoral indices used as proxy for sectoral performance. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. IT – Information Technology, FMCG – Fast Moving Consumer Goods FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23TD FMCG FMCG Capital Goods Pharma Cons Durables Metals Cons Durables Pharma Telecom Metals Power Capital Goods Auto Pharma Auto Cons Durables IT Oil & Gas Capital Goods Power Auto Auto Utilities Auto Pharma IT IT Auto FMCG Infra Power Utilities Power IT Metals FMCG Cons Durables Banks Pharma Capital Goods Oil & Gas Cons Durables Infra Infra Metals Realty Telecom Banks Infra Cons Durables Telecom Banks Auto Banks Banks Telecom Infra Capital Goods Realty Nifty IT Nifty Nifty IT Utilities Utilities Telecom Oil & Gas Utilities Infra IT Power Telecom Oil & Gas FMCG Nifty Nifty Realty Utilities Auto Capital Goods Power Capital Goods Telecom Nifty Realty Metals Telecom Banks Power Oil & Gas Nifty Oil & Gas Pharma Cons Durables Cons Durables Banks Infra Oil & Gas Power Pharma Capital Goods FMCG FMCG Pharma Nifty Infra Pharma Utilities Auto Banks Utilities Telecom Auto Nifty Banks FMCG Banks Oil & Gas Realty Oil & Gas Capital Goods Power FMCG Power FMCG Realty Capital Goods Nifty Cons Durables Nifty Utilities Power Telecom Utilities Realty Infra Nifty Auto Metals Realty Utilities Pharma Infra Realty Utilities Infra Infra Metals Pharma Metals IT Banks Oil & Gas Banks Oil & Gas Capital Goods Power Cons Durables Oil & Gas Capital Goods Telecom IT Realty IT Telecom Auto IT Metals Metals Realty Metals Realty IT Pharma Cons Durables Cons Durables FMCG FMCG Metals 8
  • 10. The Current Context How We See India’s Business Cycle Today? 2000 - 2010 2020 - ++ 2010 - 2020 10 B2B+B2C Source: Axis MF Research. Picture is for illustrative purpose only. B2B – Business to Business; B2C – Business to Consumer; B2B + B2C – Business to Business to Consumer
  • 11. B2B V/s B2C Investing Differences B2C companies typically have relatively a lower debt profile B2C companies typically have pricing power and stable margins B2B business models typically have cyclicality due to the overall demand environment B2B business can often be capital intensive businesses and might have longer gestation cycles 11 Source: Axis MF Research. For detailed Investment strategy please refer SID/KIM of the Scheme available on the website B2B – Business to Business; B2C – Business to Consumer
  • 12. 1998-2002 2003 – 2005 2006 – 2008 2009 – 2012 2013 – 2020 2021 – 2024 • Lower commodity prices • NPA cycle was bottoming out • Real Estate slowdown • Early signs of commodity price increase • Electricity Act- Opening- up of power sector • Higher Government spend • Strong private participation in power, steel and cement • Commodity prices rise as China gains prominence • Pickup in residential real estate • Excess capacity build up post ’08-’09 crisis • Financial crises dents global risk appetite • Demand drops due to global slowdown and domestic policy paralysis • Lower commodity prices • Excess supply across sectors • Deleveraging & market Consolidation takes place • Balance sheet quality improves across large companies • Government supports private sector through targeted incentives Global Outlook Negative Positive Very Positive Negative Positive Start of an upcycle led by:  Improving domestic demand and consumption patterns  Improving business prospects drive investments in business capacity  Government support by way of PLI incentives and public infrastructure spending Expansion Peak Slowdown Slowdown & Trough Expansion Trough Capex cycle in India Multiple drivers for investment cycle pick-up Government Capex is the Central & State Government spend CAGR during the specific periods, Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce, Spark Research. Data as on 30th November 2022 12
  • 13. Factors Expected To Unleash Capex Upcycle Total Capex as a share of GDP is expected to leapfrog to 36% of GDP FY27 from 29.5% of GDP in FY22 48% Low Corporate debt/ GDP 18.4% Low Household debt to GDP Decadal high sales in real estate and Best affordability in 25 years Private consumption is 7.5% above pre-pandemic levels Export share has risen to 2.2% Pickup in Supply-side Government Reforms Impaired loans at 10-year low Capacity utilization @78.4 above long term average Source: Morgan Stanley, Data as of 31st October 2022 Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. The above graph is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Mse – Morgan Stanley estimates 13
  • 14. Key focus areas 4 Pronged Investment Opportunity Integrating India in global supply chain Made In India Rapid infrastructure ramp up Focusing on de-carbonisation 14
  • 15. Integrating India in global supply chain Focus area #1 This implies that the next decade may be led by the manufacturing sector, just as the 2000s were led by the emergence of new service sectors. Textiles Pharmaceuticals & Related Chemicals (ex Pharma) & Products Automobiles & its Components Food Processing Metals & its Products Computers, Electronics & Optical Products Market Size US$18.6bn CAGR: 11.8% Share: 8.1% Market Size US$29.3bn CAGR: 10.3% Share: 8.6% Market Size US$35.8bn CAGR: 9.1% Share: 10.5% Market Size US$39.6bn CAGR: 9% Share: 11.6% Market Size US$47.7bn CAGR: 5.8% Share: 14% Market Size US$8.4bn CAGR: 7.8% Share: 1.7% Market Size US$8.4bn CAGR: 8.3% Share: 2.5% Existing Prospective Source: CSO, CMIE Axis MF Research. Note: Market size is as of F21 and CAGR is for F2012-2021. Share is the share of respective sectors in manufacturing GVA; Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice. CAGR – Compounded annual growth rate 15 India’s export market share is expected to rise from 2.2%(2021) to 4.5% by 2031
  • 16. Made In India Sectors exposed to this theme: Chemicals Machinery and Equipment Auto Ancillaries Electronics India is holistically addressing issues around production. Focusing on indigenization, launching PLI scheme may provide potential to lower fiscal & current account deficits Source: CSO, AxisMF Research; Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice. Indigenization - Indigenization is the act of making something more native 16 Focus area #2 Rise in domestic demand for high value imported items Import substitution & Product indigenization Research & Development Building technological & manufacturing capabilities Government incentives (Production Linked Incentives) Creating a manufacturing ecosphere to meet domestic & international demand
  • 17. Defence - Strong thrust toward local manufacturing Focus area #2 F25 defence production 404 435 454 477 467 551 148 148 128 92 146 119 142 154 174 159 173 193 741 789 811 791 846 927 1750 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 F17 F18 F19 F20 F21 F22 F25 target Defence Public Sector Undertakings Ordnance Factory Board Other Public Sector Undertakings/Joint Ventures Defence Private Companies Rs bn The government has plans to procure Rs 5 lakh crore of military equipment domestically over the next 5 years. It is currently also reviewing all 'Buy Global' (termed by the government) products for indigenization. The target is to reach zero imports and 90% of equipment approvals over the last two years have been for 'Make in India' products. Source: Ministry of Defence, Axis MF Research. Data as on 31st October 2022 17
  • 18. Rapid infrastructure ramp up Focus area #3 Multilateral funding to infra Government Infra focus through NIP, NMP, PM Gatishakti & others. Source: BofA, Axis MF Research. Data as on 31st October 2022. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice 18
  • 19. Advantage → Heavy Industries Focus area #3 Multilateral funding to infra Sectors exposed to this theme: Industrials Railways Electricals Metals Utilities Historically in a capex upcycle, Industrial sector's margins double, working capital reduces by 20x, ROEs triple and valuation multiples quadruples Source: BofA Global Research Company - L&T, Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. Note: *FY21 other income inflated on back of extraordinary cash buffers maintained by L&T Adjusted to normal run rate by assuming 50% post tax other income. 19
  • 20. Focus on de-carbonization Focus area #4 India now aligned with large economies on de-carbonization efforts CO2 emission/ GDP & carbon neutral targets 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 USA (RHS) China (LHS) Japan (RHS) Germany (RHS) India (RHS) UK (RHS) 1971 2000 2018 2030 Target 2050 2060 2050 2045 2070 2050 Source: BofA Global Research, Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice. RHS – Right Hand Side; LHS – Left Hand Side; 20
  • 21. Focus on de-carbonization Focus area #4 Sectors exposed to this theme: Renewables Industrials Automation Business theme Energy efficiency Emission reduction Renewable Energy Sub-theme Industries Buildings Power gensets Highly polluting industries Increasing share of renewables in electricity mix Key products/ service Motors, drives, robots, sensors, automation and control systems Building Management system, retrofits CPCB IV complaint diesel gensets, natural gas gensets Electrostatic precipitators, Flue-gas desulfurizers, waste-heat recovery systems EPC, design and O&M Automation and control systems High energy materials and power density Equipment providers in transmission and distribution Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. The Analysis should not be treated as a form of recommendation or investment advice 21
  • 22. Introducing Axis Business Cycles Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme) 22
  • 23. Business Cycle Investing A Case for Conviction Driven Investing Forward Looking Investing Need For High Conviction Sell Discipline • Focus on Medium term Growth triggers • Identify opportunities to benefit from earnings upgrades and/or valuation re-rating • Meaningful allocation to sectors basis research indicators • Always Plan for Contingency - Nothing goes to Plan. Plan to diversify • Restructure portfolios once industry cycle plays out • Transition to new portfolio basis a changing business cycle 23
  • 24. Investment Approach Our Approach to Business Cycle Investing Economic Cycle (Macro Factors) Sector Cycle (Industry Specific Factors) Growth and inflation Monetary and Fiscal policy Regulatory changes Capex and consumer spending Industry analysis Company position Competitive advantage Growth prospects Top down approach + Bottom up approach = Hybrid approach to investing Looking for cyclical opportunities with a medium term view Sector selection will be based on nature of sectors 24 For detailed Investment strategy please refer SID/KIM of the Scheme available on the website
  • 25. Why Axis Business Cycles Fund? Hybrid Approach: Mix of Top Down & Bottom Up Approach Dynamic theme Style: Quality focused Flexibility for a more aggressive stance in terms of sector over/ under weight No Market cap bias 25 For detailed Investment strategy please refer SID/KIM of the Scheme available on the website
  • 26. Fund Facts Name Axis Business Cycles Fund Fund Manager Mr. Ashish Naik and Mr. Hitesh Das (for Foreign Securities) Benchmark NIFTY 500 TRI Category Thematic Minimum Application Rs. 5,000 and in multiples of Rs. 1 thereafter NFO Period 2nd Feb 2023 – 16th Feb 2023 For detailed Investment strategy please refer SID/KIM of the Scheme available on the website 26
  • 27. Axis Strategies Current Portfolio Allocation is based on the prevailing market conditions and is subject to changes depending on the fund manager’s view of the equity markets. ^Open-ended Equity-Linked Savings Scheme with a 3-year lock in. The bubbles in the chart are proportionate to their sizes respectively. Market caps are defined as per SEBI regulations as below: a. Large Cap: 1st -100th company in terms of full market capitalization. b. Mid Cap: 101st -250th company in terms of full market capitalization. c. Small Cap: 251st company onwards in terms of full market capitalization. Please refer annexure for type of scheme for each of the above-mentioned schemes. The right strategy for the right time Axis Bluechip Fund Axis Long Term Equity Fund^ Axis Flexi Cap Fund Axis Growth Opportunities Fund Axis Focused 25 Fund Axis Business cycles Fund Axis Midcap Fund Axis Small Cap Fund Large Cap ELSS Flexi cap Large & Midcap Focused Business cycles theme Midcap Smallcap Active Returns Active Risk Looking for cyclical opportunities with a medium term view 27
  • 28. Product Labelling *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Fund Name & Benchmark Product Labelling Product Risk-o-meter Benchmark Risk-o-meter AXIS BUSINESS CYCLES FUND (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme) Benchmark: Nifty 500 TRI This product is suitable for investors who are seeking* • Capital appreciation over long term • An equity scheme investing in equity & equity related securities with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles in the economy *The product labelling assigned during the New Fund Offer is based on internal assessment of the Scheme Characteristics or model portfolio and the same may vary post NFO when actual investments are made Nifty 500 TRI 29
  • 29. Product Labelling *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 29
  • 30. Product Labelling *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 29
  • 31. Disclaimer and Risk Factors Data as on 30th Nov 2022. Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. Sector(s) / Stock(s) / Issuer(s) mentioned above are for the purpose of disclosure of the portfolio of the Scheme(s) and should not be construed as recommendation. The fund manager(s) may or may not choose to hold the stock mentioned, from time to time. Investors are requested to consult their financial, tax and other advisors before taking any investment decision(s). Sector(s) / Stock(s) / Issuer(s) mentioned above are for the purpose of disclosure of the portfolio of the Scheme(s) and should not be construed as recommendation. The fund manager(s) may or may not choose to hold the stock mentioned, from time to time. Statutory Details: Axis Mutual Fund has been established as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882, sponsored by Axis Bank Ltd. (liability restricted to Rs. 1 Lakh). Trustee: Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Ltd. Investment Manager: Axis Asset Management Co. Ltd. (the AMC). Risk Factors: Axis Bank Limited is not liable or responsible for any loss or shortfall resulting from the operation of the scheme. This document represents the views of Axis Asset Management Co. Ltd. and must not be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Neither Axis Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Limited nor Axis Asset Management Company Limited, its Directors or associates shall be liable for any damages including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from the use of the information contained herein. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained herein. The AMC reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. 30