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Non-bank Lending in Germany: How Investors can
access Lending to the Mittelstand
Munich, June 23rd 2016
Dr. Nicolaus Loos
Agenda
2
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
Introduction to IKB and VALIN
Key figures as at 31 March 2016
1) The CET 1 ratios were calculated in accordance with the current legal status of the CRR as at the respective reporting date, including transitional provisions and the interpretations
published by the regulatory authorities and the interpretation thereof. The possibility that future EBA/ECB standards and interpretations or other regulatory action will lead to a
retrospective change in the CET 1 ratio cannot be ruled out.
3
Since 90 years financing partner for SMEs,
with a strong focus on German Mittelstand
5,000 focus clients across
Germany & Europe
and overall 20,000 SME contacts
1,050 employees (FTE)
Total assets: €19.6bn
Common Equity Tier 1 ratio1): 11.6%
We are providing a wide range of
corporate finance products
– from loans to capital market products
through to corporate advisory –
to SME clients and financial sponsors
across Europe
Luxemburg-based private debt
fund – structured, sponsored
and managed by IKB
Connecting institutional investors – e.g.
insurance companies and pension
funds – with German mid-market
borrowers in the Mittelstand
IKB provides Origination,
Investment Management, Risk
Management and further
servicing functions for
VALINFUNDS
Accessing European mid-marketcorporate loans
Margins in Germany are too low to compete against and they will not meet investor
target returns.
Accessing the German Mittelstand is impossible as CFOs of German SMEs do not
even want to talk to Direct Lenders.
Non-bank lending to German Corporates is almost impossible for Private Debt
players given major competition from German banks.
Germany‘s national soccer team cannot be beaten and will win the Euro 2016 Cup!
Key Myths about Germany
4
2
3
1
4
Agenda
5
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
Average GDP growth vs industry share by country Industrial production by country (index 2010=100)
Exports/ Imports as % of GDPGerman GDP and annual growth rates
580
620
660
700
740
2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015
Forecast
+0.9%
+3.9%
+3.4%
+0.8%
-5.6%
+3.9%
+3.7%
+0.6%
+0.4%
+1.6%
+1.4%
+1.7%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Productionindex(2010=100)
Germany France Italy Spain Euro-Area
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Average industry share 2011-15
AverageGDPgrowthin%
2011-15
Germany UK France Italy Spain
33.1%
30.2%
30.0%
27.4%
46.9%
30.7%
27.0%
31.4%
29.4%
39.1%
Spain
Italy
France
UK
Germany
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
% of GDP 2015
Imports Exports
Germany benefits from positive macroeconomic developments
Sources: EIU, Statistisches Bundesamt
6
GDP, real, quarterly in €bn
GER +9.5
EU +4.1
FR +1.1
ES -2.4
IT -6.2
1.6% / 30.5%
-0.7% / 23.8%
-0.1% / 23.2%
1.0% / 19.7%
2.1% / 20.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Germany UK France Italy
Revenue growth (yoy)
2013 2014 2015
European mid-markets playing a leading role in driving national growth rates
Mid-market comparison of EU-4 economies (Germany, UK, France, Italy)
1) EU 4 including Germany, UK, France and Italy; Mid-market defined as follows (in annual turnover): Germany: €20m - €1bn; UK €20m - €1bn; France: €10m - €500m ; Italy €5m -
€250m; as of 2013
Source: GE Capital
7
Mid-market revenue and workforce development 2013-2015
All other companiesMid-market companies
EU-4 Mid-market profile1)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Germany UK France Italy
Workforce growth (yoy)
2013 2014 2015
29%
Employees
33%
GDP
1%
Firms
31%
Revenue
Importance of upper mid-market (€50m - €1bn)
Mittelstand propelled Germany to a global player with solid market share
German corporate pyramid based on turnover Mid-caps – Backbone of German economy
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
8
Private debt fund
focus
1,875
9,269
10,370
71,169
273,647
633,262
507
Number of companies 2014 by turnover
30.6%
2014
0.3%
2014
~22,000
companies
Turnover
(in €m)
>€1,000
€250 - €1,000
€50 - €250
€25 - €50
€5 - €25
€1 - €5
€0.25- €1
Share in revenue
Share in total companies
Private debt
fund focus
8.0%
16.8%
19.1%
23.5%
30.5%
19.5%
< 1 1 - 25 25 - 100 100 -
500
500 -
1,000
> 1,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Turnover in €m
%changeinGernan
companies2006-14
Change in no. of corporates by size 2006-14 (in %)
Foreign activity of European mid-caps 2014-15
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
2014-15
internationalrevenuegrowth
(yoy,predicted)
2014-15 total mid-market revenue growth
(yoy, actual)
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Foreign direct investment in Europe 2010-14
11.4%
8.9%
7.3% 6.5% 5.9%
Germany Spain Italy France UK
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
ShareofFDI(%)
FDI in % of national investments (Ø2010-14)
Development of German corporate landscape 2006-14
Growth supported by economic recovery and international expansion
Significant growth in larger mid-cap segment Globalisation and industrialisation are key growth driver
Sources: Statistisches Bundesamt, Bundesbank, ECB, GE Capital
9
4.0% / 4.6%
2.5% / 4.1%
3.7% / 4.9%
3.9% / 7.6%
Production levels and capacity utilisation in Germany
85
95
105
115
65
75
85
95
Productionindex
Capacityutilisation
Capacity utilisation in % Production index (2010=100)
12% 13% 13% 11% 14% 12% 15%
48% 50% 48% 54% 53% 52% 49%
32% 30% 31%
29% 28% 30% 31%
165
139
143
156
145 144
158
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Fundingin%oftotalinvestment
Grossinvestment(€bn) Subsidies Own funds
Bank loans Capital investments (gross)
Investments as % of GDP
German mid-cap lending mainly driven by growth/ capex requirement
Mid-cap lending driven by economic recovery, pick up in investment and corresponding capex requirement
Sources: EIU, KfW Mittelstandspanel, Statistisches Bundesamt
10
Mid-market investments and type of funding
Ø utilisation
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Investmentsas%ofGDP
Germany UK France Italy Spain
ES 6.9%
GER 6.6%
IT 5.5%
FR 4.8%
UK 4.0%
9%
24%
32%
13%
18%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
25.4%
26.3% 26.6% 26.9%
27.4%
28.6%
29.7%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
Average equity ratio
Prevailing financing structures allow for lending opportunity in healthy
corporate sector
Sources: Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK), KfW
Mittelstandspanel
11
Interest cover of European NFCs Liquidity profile of European NFCs
Cash flow metrics of European NFCsEquity ratio of German mid-caps
-10%
10%
30%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
cash flow from op. activities to total assets
capital expanditures (capex) to total assets
net debt to total assets
op. cash flow net of capex to net debt
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
cash flow from op. activities to total assets
capital expanditures (capex) to total assets
net debt to total assets
op. cash flow net of capex to net debt
2x
5x
5x
3x
4x
2x
3x
4x
5x
6x
7x
8x
Italy France Germany Spain UK
10%
10%
10%
7%
8%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
2011 2013 2015
Cash plus ST assets in % of total assets
Agenda
12
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
German three-pillar banking system
1) Balance sheet total excludes total cumulated assets of Building & Loan Associations of €213.1bn
Source: Bundesbank
13
Supervision:
Commercial Banks Public Banks Cooperative Banks1 2 3
Balance sheet total: €2,104bn1)Balance sheet total: €3,081bn1) Balance sheet total: €1,115bn
4 Big Banks 1.021 Credit Unions413 Savings Banks
2 Central Institutions
9 Federal State Banks
Building & Loan Associations
State Driven
Support
160 Regional / 106 Foreign Banks
Building & Loan Associations
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
Totalassetsin€bn
Balance sheet sum of German banks
Loans to European NFCs Short-term debt portion of European NFCs
Balance sheet sum of banks in Germany in €bnBank assets to GDP
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
yoychange(%)
Germany France Italy Spain Euro Zone
Banks remain dominant external – yet declining – source of funding…
Sources: ECB, Bundesbank, Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany,
Spain and UK)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
TotalbankassetstoGDP(x)
Germany France Italy Spain
FR 3.7x
ES 2.6x
GER 2.5x
IT 2.4x
4/2016
FR +4.5%
GER +3.5%
EU +0.9%
ES -1.5%
IT -1.9%
5/2012
€8,860bn 4/2016
€7,807bn
-12%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Shorttermdebt
tototaldebt(%)
Germany UK France Italy Spain
GER 33%
FR 28%
IT 26%
ES 20%
UK 16%
14
7,0581)
6,007
4,552
3,578
2,466
2,400
2,344
2,301
2,277
2,169
2,128
2,093
2,080
2,053
2,029
1,990
Net interest income of selected German banks
Further Regulation
Basel II Global financial
crisis
Further Regulation
Basel III
Regulation
Regulation
Basel I
Ongoing consolidation in the German banking sector
15
2008: Merger of Deutsche
Bank and Postbank
1980s: DG Bank merge
with several regional
central banks2); Bayr.
Vereinsbank and Bayr.
Hypotheken- und
Wechselbank form HVB
0%
1%
2%
3%
4% All banking groups
Big banks
Federal state banks
Savings banks
Cooperative banks
Credit unions
1) Total number of banks in Germany; 2) Including Bayrische Raiffeisen-Zentralbank AG and Bayrische Volksbanken AG, among others
Sources: Bundesbank, Statistisches Bundesamt, IKB research
1970: Merger of two regional Banks
(near Münster) and the cooporative
central bank Rhineland to form
WGZ-Bank
2000: Merger of
South-West German
cooperative central
banks to form the
SGZ-Bank and GZB-
Bank
2005: WestLB acquires
Weberbank
2003: Merger of Hamburgischer LB
and LB Schleswig-Holstein; HVB sells
Norisbank to DZ Bank
2004: LBBW takes over LB
Rheinland-Pfalz; Private bank
Sal. Oppenheim acquires BHF
2002: Split up of WestLB to
Landesbank NRW and WestLB AG
2009: HSH on the edge to
insolvency; Merger of Dres-
dner Bank and Commerzbank
2007: WestLB split into three
parts, following a dramatic loss
from speculations
2006: Deutsche Bank
acquires Berliner Bank and
branch net-work of Norisbank
2016: Agreed merger of
DZ and WGZ
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
UK France Germany Other EU
Alternative lending in Europe – Status quo & upside in Germany
Primary deal distribution across Europe
1) Q4/ 2015; Deal tracker covers 42 alternative lenders; only primary mid-market deal included: in the last 13 quarters. 629 deals mid-market deals are recorded in Europe; 2)
Cumulated UK, France and Germany
Source: Deloitte
16
Alternative lenders increasing deal flow in Europe
63
60
66
53
61
79
4141
54
3534
24
~13% ~14%~8%~8%
LTM German share
18
Total # deal: 629
Alternative lending deals in Europe1)
# of deals
Relative share of GDP2) vs
relative share of alternative
lender deals
1
1
5
2
18
149
74
274
13
10
1
8
28.2% 30.0%
32.7% 55.1%
39.1% 14.9%
19
27
4
3
UK
43%
France
24%
Germany
12%
Other
European
21%
629
11
Agenda
17
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
Overall credit quality in Europe keeps improving…
Sources: Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK), Euler Hermes
18
Trends and risk indicators in European bank lending
Interest rates and expected default frequency yoy change in insolvencies
Sales and profit vulnerabilityLending conditions and lending growth
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-8 -4 0 4 8
Tighteninginlending
conditions
Lending growth
Dec-2014
Dec-2015
Dec-2011
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3
Interestrateon
bankloans
Expected default frequency
Germany France Italy Spain
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
reporting annual change in net revenues < 10-year average
reporting net loss
Number of companies in percentage of the sample as of December 2015
2015 vs. 2014 in %
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail/Trade
Transportation
Service
Countrytotal
Germany -15% -6% -4% -7% -13% -1% -4%
France -3% -7% -3% -4% -9% -1% 1%
Italy - -14% -8% -6% -6% -2% -6%
UK -24% -8% -11% -3% -11% -6% -14%
Spain 25% -39% -34% -17% -35% -19% -26%
Ø change by sector -4% -15% -12% -7% -15% -6% -10%
same indicators for previous year
Dec-2014
Dec-2015
Dec-2011
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3
Interestrateon
bankloans
Expected default frequency
Germany France Italy Spain
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
S&P ELLI loan default rate (based upon issuer count)
...while Germany in particular has a track record of extremely low default rates
Default rates in Germany
Sources: Creditreform, LCD
19
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Default rates of German corporates with sales >€20m
Historical development of overall defaults
0.70
0.56
0.16
0.57
0.38
0.04
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
20-50 50-250 >250
2014 2015
0.64
0.10
0.47
Ø default rates
German default rate by company size (turnover)
3/2016
1.95%
…while offering solid returns
YTM of primary leveraged loans (TLB1)) by country
1) All purposes, corporate and sponsored; 2) Excluding lowest IRR outlier in each category; 3) Continental Europe ex UK; 4) Q1/Q2 YTD
Sources: CEPRES, LCD, Dialogic
20
2014 2015 2016 YTD
France Germany Italy Netherlands United Kingdom United States
HY corporate bonds – Average spreads to swap Europe
Average quarterly spreads to swap (bps)
CEPRES® IRRs – DACH vs Europe vs US
2013 2014 2015 2016
Spreadtoswapinbps
France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom
Senior 2)
DACH
Europe
(ex DACH)3) US
Pooled IRR 6.8% 7.9% 5.1%
Min 2.1% 4.7% -59.4%
Max 18.2% 17.4% 938.1%
Q1 Upper 8.7% 8.9% 16.0%
Q2 Median 7.9% 8.0% 8.1%
Q3 Lower 7.1% 6.9% -3.3%
Average best performer (Q1) 10.8% 11.0% 123.1%
Average worst performer (Q4) 6.0% 6.0% -32.2%
4)
Agenda
21
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
Accessing the Mittelstand
22
Local network
Local advisors
Local partners
Local joint ventures
 Sourcing partnerships with local banks, but also other local managers can help accelerate deal flow
 Opportunity for joint-invest and co-invest in larger deals
 Banks are increasingly open to transactions
 So far no revenue sharing except for “operating business“ or the table from PD
 Private Equity has been successful by leveraging a network of local senior advisors
 Industry experts can support credit process and evaluation
 Accessing the local network of corporate & debt advisors beyond the obvious Tier 1 names
 Smaller, local advisors are relationship driven, auditors, lawyers etc.
Local feel & lobby
 Strong presence and sponsoring of local events, including associations and the political and
financial community necessary
Local employee office
 Local language essential to access Mittelstand
 Local office underlines regional focus
1
2
3
4
5
6
Thank you! Any questions?
23
Disclaimer
The attached Marketing Communication and the information contained herein do not constitute a contract or give rise to any obligations.
This Marketing Communication is designed by IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG (“IKB“), registered at the Düsseldorf District Court, Commercial Register no. HR B 1130, Wilhelm-Bötzkes-Straße 1, 40474 Düsseldorf, Germany for (potential) retail clients, professional clients and
eligible counterparties according to the Directive 2004/39/EC of the European Parliament, with domicile and permanent residence in the European Economic Area or Switzerland. and who are familiar with financial instruments as a result of their employment/ professional
responsibility and who have or have acquired from the information provided by IKB certain sufficient experience, knowledge and expertise to make investment decisions, investment services, ancillary services and have appropriate judgements of the risks involved taking into
account where appropriate of the references given by IKB. No other persons should receive any information contained in this Marketing Communication. It is a condition of your receiving this Marketing Communication that you fall within, and you warrant and undertake to IKB
that (i) you have read, agree to and will comply with the terms of this disclaimer and (ii) you will conduct your own analyses or other verification of the data set out in the Marketing Communication.
IKB is authorized and under the supervision of the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht) and the European Central Bank (Europäische Zentralbank).
The Marketing Communication is proprietary information of IKB, confidential and must not be copied, distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, in original or copy to any other persons. The Marketing Communication and any excerpts are being supplied to you solely for your
information and for your eyes, only, and may not be reproduced, forwarded to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any other purpose.
The Marketing Communication has not been designed with the intention to offer advice on legal, tax-related or financial matters. Attention is invited to the fact, that tax treatment of a business deal depends of the individual circumstances of a client and is subject to future
changes.
This Marketing Communication is not an offer, or a solicitation to offer, to invest, or to procure an investment in financial instruments or assets of whatever kind, or to issue or sell or procure the issuance or sale of such assets. This document is exempt from the general
restriction under English law on the communication of invitations or inducements to enter into investment activity and therefore its contents have not been approved by an authorized person as would otherwise be required by section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act
2000 (UK).
The information contained in this Marketing Communication does not purport to be complete. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by IKB or any of its officers or directors as to the accuracy or completeness of such information, and nothing contained in
the Marketing Communication is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation or advice by IKB or any of its officers or employees. This Marketing Communication or the forwarding is not an investment service or ancillary service according to the Directive 2004/39/EC
of the European Parliament. Any investment decision you take is in reliance on your own analysis and judgment and/or that of your advisors and not in reliance on us. The Marketing Communication must not be viewed as research and its contents do not constitute advice,
including investment advice. Any recommendations and forecasts contained are non-binding statements at the time of preparation of the Marketing Communication. The information relates exclusively to the time at which the Marketing Communication was prepared. The
information contained in the Marketing Communication is for background purposes only and is subject to material updating, completion, revision, amendment and verification. Various factors could cause actual future results, performance or events to differ materially from those
described in these statements, including as a result of changes in (among other things) general economic conditions, the conditions of the financial markets in Germany, in Western Europe and in the United States, the performance of IKB’s core markets and changes in laws
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The information contained in this Marketing Communication does not take into account the individual circumstances of the specific client or investor, particularly its financial and economic situation. Conditions, if any, specified in the Marketing Communication are non-binding
indicators. In case of the conclusion of a deal the conditions depend on the current market development. An investment in financial instruments contains certain specific risks, including capital, interest rate, currency, credit, political, liquidity, fair value, product, industry and
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Switzerland Law: Neither this Marketing Communication nor any other offering or marketing material relating to any financial instrument or other investment described or referred to herein constitutes (i) a prospectus as such term is understood pursuant to article 652a or article
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Investment Scheme Act.
Contact at IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG
40474 Düsseldorf
Wilhelm-Bötzkes Str. 1
Tel.: +49 211 8221-0
24.06.2016
Published by: IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, Wilhelm-Bötzkes-Straße 1, 40474 Düsseldorf
Public limited company under German law
Registered office: Düsseldorf, Germany
Registered at the Düsseldorf District Court, Commercial Register no. HR B 1130
Chairman of the Supervisory Board: Dr. Karl-Gerhard Eick
Chairman of the Board of Managing Directors: Dr. Michael H. Wiedmann
Members of the Board of Managing Directors: Claus Momburg, Dr. Jörg Oliveri del Castillo-Schulz, Dirk Volz
© 2016
24

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Non-Bank Lending in Germany: How Investors can access Lending to the Middelstand

  • 1. Non-bank Lending in Germany: How Investors can access Lending to the Mittelstand Munich, June 23rd 2016 Dr. Nicolaus Loos
  • 2. Agenda 2 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  • 3. Introduction to IKB and VALIN Key figures as at 31 March 2016 1) The CET 1 ratios were calculated in accordance with the current legal status of the CRR as at the respective reporting date, including transitional provisions and the interpretations published by the regulatory authorities and the interpretation thereof. The possibility that future EBA/ECB standards and interpretations or other regulatory action will lead to a retrospective change in the CET 1 ratio cannot be ruled out. 3 Since 90 years financing partner for SMEs, with a strong focus on German Mittelstand 5,000 focus clients across Germany & Europe and overall 20,000 SME contacts 1,050 employees (FTE) Total assets: €19.6bn Common Equity Tier 1 ratio1): 11.6% We are providing a wide range of corporate finance products – from loans to capital market products through to corporate advisory – to SME clients and financial sponsors across Europe Luxemburg-based private debt fund – structured, sponsored and managed by IKB Connecting institutional investors – e.g. insurance companies and pension funds – with German mid-market borrowers in the Mittelstand IKB provides Origination, Investment Management, Risk Management and further servicing functions for VALINFUNDS Accessing European mid-marketcorporate loans
  • 4. Margins in Germany are too low to compete against and they will not meet investor target returns. Accessing the German Mittelstand is impossible as CFOs of German SMEs do not even want to talk to Direct Lenders. Non-bank lending to German Corporates is almost impossible for Private Debt players given major competition from German banks. Germany‘s national soccer team cannot be beaten and will win the Euro 2016 Cup! Key Myths about Germany 4 2 3 1 4
  • 5. Agenda 5 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  • 6. Average GDP growth vs industry share by country Industrial production by country (index 2010=100) Exports/ Imports as % of GDPGerman GDP and annual growth rates 580 620 660 700 740 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 Forecast +0.9% +3.9% +3.4% +0.8% -5.6% +3.9% +3.7% +0.6% +0.4% +1.6% +1.4% +1.7% 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Productionindex(2010=100) Germany France Italy Spain Euro-Area 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Average industry share 2011-15 AverageGDPgrowthin% 2011-15 Germany UK France Italy Spain 33.1% 30.2% 30.0% 27.4% 46.9% 30.7% 27.0% 31.4% 29.4% 39.1% Spain Italy France UK Germany 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% % of GDP 2015 Imports Exports Germany benefits from positive macroeconomic developments Sources: EIU, Statistisches Bundesamt 6 GDP, real, quarterly in €bn GER +9.5 EU +4.1 FR +1.1 ES -2.4 IT -6.2 1.6% / 30.5% -0.7% / 23.8% -0.1% / 23.2% 1.0% / 19.7% 2.1% / 20.1%
  • 7. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Germany UK France Italy Revenue growth (yoy) 2013 2014 2015 European mid-markets playing a leading role in driving national growth rates Mid-market comparison of EU-4 economies (Germany, UK, France, Italy) 1) EU 4 including Germany, UK, France and Italy; Mid-market defined as follows (in annual turnover): Germany: €20m - €1bn; UK €20m - €1bn; France: €10m - €500m ; Italy €5m - €250m; as of 2013 Source: GE Capital 7 Mid-market revenue and workforce development 2013-2015 All other companiesMid-market companies EU-4 Mid-market profile1) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Germany UK France Italy Workforce growth (yoy) 2013 2014 2015 29% Employees 33% GDP 1% Firms 31% Revenue
  • 8. Importance of upper mid-market (€50m - €1bn) Mittelstand propelled Germany to a global player with solid market share German corporate pyramid based on turnover Mid-caps – Backbone of German economy Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 8 Private debt fund focus 1,875 9,269 10,370 71,169 273,647 633,262 507 Number of companies 2014 by turnover 30.6% 2014 0.3% 2014 ~22,000 companies Turnover (in €m) >€1,000 €250 - €1,000 €50 - €250 €25 - €50 €5 - €25 €1 - €5 €0.25- €1 Share in revenue Share in total companies
  • 9. Private debt fund focus 8.0% 16.8% 19.1% 23.5% 30.5% 19.5% < 1 1 - 25 25 - 100 100 - 500 500 - 1,000 > 1,000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Turnover in €m %changeinGernan companies2006-14 Change in no. of corporates by size 2006-14 (in %) Foreign activity of European mid-caps 2014-15 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2014-15 internationalrevenuegrowth (yoy,predicted) 2014-15 total mid-market revenue growth (yoy, actual) Germany UK France Italy Foreign direct investment in Europe 2010-14 11.4% 8.9% 7.3% 6.5% 5.9% Germany Spain Italy France UK 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% ShareofFDI(%) FDI in % of national investments (Ø2010-14) Development of German corporate landscape 2006-14 Growth supported by economic recovery and international expansion Significant growth in larger mid-cap segment Globalisation and industrialisation are key growth driver Sources: Statistisches Bundesamt, Bundesbank, ECB, GE Capital 9 4.0% / 4.6% 2.5% / 4.1% 3.7% / 4.9% 3.9% / 7.6%
  • 10. Production levels and capacity utilisation in Germany 85 95 105 115 65 75 85 95 Productionindex Capacityutilisation Capacity utilisation in % Production index (2010=100) 12% 13% 13% 11% 14% 12% 15% 48% 50% 48% 54% 53% 52% 49% 32% 30% 31% 29% 28% 30% 31% 165 139 143 156 145 144 158 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Fundingin%oftotalinvestment Grossinvestment(€bn) Subsidies Own funds Bank loans Capital investments (gross) Investments as % of GDP German mid-cap lending mainly driven by growth/ capex requirement Mid-cap lending driven by economic recovery, pick up in investment and corresponding capex requirement Sources: EIU, KfW Mittelstandspanel, Statistisches Bundesamt 10 Mid-market investments and type of funding Ø utilisation 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Investmentsas%ofGDP Germany UK France Italy Spain ES 6.9% GER 6.6% IT 5.5% FR 4.8% UK 4.0%
  • 11. 9% 24% 32% 13% 18% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Italy France Germany Spain UK 25.4% 26.3% 26.6% 26.9% 27.4% 28.6% 29.7% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% Average equity ratio Prevailing financing structures allow for lending opportunity in healthy corporate sector Sources: Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK), KfW Mittelstandspanel 11 Interest cover of European NFCs Liquidity profile of European NFCs Cash flow metrics of European NFCsEquity ratio of German mid-caps -10% 10% 30% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Italy France Germany Spain UK cash flow from op. activities to total assets capital expanditures (capex) to total assets net debt to total assets op. cash flow net of capex to net debt -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Italy France Germany Spain UK cash flow from op. activities to total assets capital expanditures (capex) to total assets net debt to total assets op. cash flow net of capex to net debt 2x 5x 5x 3x 4x 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x 7x 8x Italy France Germany Spain UK 10% 10% 10% 7% 8% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Italy France Germany Spain UK 2011 2013 2015 Cash plus ST assets in % of total assets
  • 12. Agenda 12 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  • 13. German three-pillar banking system 1) Balance sheet total excludes total cumulated assets of Building & Loan Associations of €213.1bn Source: Bundesbank 13 Supervision: Commercial Banks Public Banks Cooperative Banks1 2 3 Balance sheet total: €2,104bn1)Balance sheet total: €3,081bn1) Balance sheet total: €1,115bn 4 Big Banks 1.021 Credit Unions413 Savings Banks 2 Central Institutions 9 Federal State Banks Building & Loan Associations State Driven Support 160 Regional / 106 Foreign Banks Building & Loan Associations
  • 14. 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 Totalassetsin€bn Balance sheet sum of German banks Loans to European NFCs Short-term debt portion of European NFCs Balance sheet sum of banks in Germany in €bnBank assets to GDP -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% yoychange(%) Germany France Italy Spain Euro Zone Banks remain dominant external – yet declining – source of funding… Sources: ECB, Bundesbank, Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK) 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 TotalbankassetstoGDP(x) Germany France Italy Spain FR 3.7x ES 2.6x GER 2.5x IT 2.4x 4/2016 FR +4.5% GER +3.5% EU +0.9% ES -1.5% IT -1.9% 5/2012 €8,860bn 4/2016 €7,807bn -12% 10% 20% 30% 40% Shorttermdebt tototaldebt(%) Germany UK France Italy Spain GER 33% FR 28% IT 26% ES 20% UK 16% 14
  • 15. 7,0581) 6,007 4,552 3,578 2,466 2,400 2,344 2,301 2,277 2,169 2,128 2,093 2,080 2,053 2,029 1,990 Net interest income of selected German banks Further Regulation Basel II Global financial crisis Further Regulation Basel III Regulation Regulation Basel I Ongoing consolidation in the German banking sector 15 2008: Merger of Deutsche Bank and Postbank 1980s: DG Bank merge with several regional central banks2); Bayr. Vereinsbank and Bayr. Hypotheken- und Wechselbank form HVB 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% All banking groups Big banks Federal state banks Savings banks Cooperative banks Credit unions 1) Total number of banks in Germany; 2) Including Bayrische Raiffeisen-Zentralbank AG and Bayrische Volksbanken AG, among others Sources: Bundesbank, Statistisches Bundesamt, IKB research 1970: Merger of two regional Banks (near Münster) and the cooporative central bank Rhineland to form WGZ-Bank 2000: Merger of South-West German cooperative central banks to form the SGZ-Bank and GZB- Bank 2005: WestLB acquires Weberbank 2003: Merger of Hamburgischer LB and LB Schleswig-Holstein; HVB sells Norisbank to DZ Bank 2004: LBBW takes over LB Rheinland-Pfalz; Private bank Sal. Oppenheim acquires BHF 2002: Split up of WestLB to Landesbank NRW and WestLB AG 2009: HSH on the edge to insolvency; Merger of Dres- dner Bank and Commerzbank 2007: WestLB split into three parts, following a dramatic loss from speculations 2006: Deutsche Bank acquires Berliner Bank and branch net-work of Norisbank 2016: Agreed merger of DZ and WGZ
  • 16. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 UK France Germany Other EU Alternative lending in Europe – Status quo & upside in Germany Primary deal distribution across Europe 1) Q4/ 2015; Deal tracker covers 42 alternative lenders; only primary mid-market deal included: in the last 13 quarters. 629 deals mid-market deals are recorded in Europe; 2) Cumulated UK, France and Germany Source: Deloitte 16 Alternative lenders increasing deal flow in Europe 63 60 66 53 61 79 4141 54 3534 24 ~13% ~14%~8%~8% LTM German share 18 Total # deal: 629 Alternative lending deals in Europe1) # of deals Relative share of GDP2) vs relative share of alternative lender deals 1 1 5 2 18 149 74 274 13 10 1 8 28.2% 30.0% 32.7% 55.1% 39.1% 14.9% 19 27 4 3 UK 43% France 24% Germany 12% Other European 21% 629 11
  • 17. Agenda 17 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  • 18. Overall credit quality in Europe keeps improving… Sources: Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK), Euler Hermes 18 Trends and risk indicators in European bank lending Interest rates and expected default frequency yoy change in insolvencies Sales and profit vulnerabilityLending conditions and lending growth -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 -8 -4 0 4 8 Tighteninginlending conditions Lending growth Dec-2014 Dec-2015 Dec-2011 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 Interestrateon bankloans Expected default frequency Germany France Italy Spain 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Italy France Germany Spain UK reporting annual change in net revenues < 10-year average reporting net loss Number of companies in percentage of the sample as of December 2015 2015 vs. 2014 in % Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Retail/Trade Transportation Service Countrytotal Germany -15% -6% -4% -7% -13% -1% -4% France -3% -7% -3% -4% -9% -1% 1% Italy - -14% -8% -6% -6% -2% -6% UK -24% -8% -11% -3% -11% -6% -14% Spain 25% -39% -34% -17% -35% -19% -26% Ø change by sector -4% -15% -12% -7% -15% -6% -10% same indicators for previous year Dec-2014 Dec-2015 Dec-2011 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 Interestrateon bankloans Expected default frequency Germany France Italy Spain
  • 19. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% S&P ELLI loan default rate (based upon issuer count) ...while Germany in particular has a track record of extremely low default rates Default rates in Germany Sources: Creditreform, LCD 19 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Default rates of German corporates with sales >€20m Historical development of overall defaults 0.70 0.56 0.16 0.57 0.38 0.04 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 20-50 50-250 >250 2014 2015 0.64 0.10 0.47 Ø default rates German default rate by company size (turnover) 3/2016 1.95%
  • 20. …while offering solid returns YTM of primary leveraged loans (TLB1)) by country 1) All purposes, corporate and sponsored; 2) Excluding lowest IRR outlier in each category; 3) Continental Europe ex UK; 4) Q1/Q2 YTD Sources: CEPRES, LCD, Dialogic 20 2014 2015 2016 YTD France Germany Italy Netherlands United Kingdom United States HY corporate bonds – Average spreads to swap Europe Average quarterly spreads to swap (bps) CEPRES® IRRs – DACH vs Europe vs US 2013 2014 2015 2016 Spreadtoswapinbps France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom Senior 2) DACH Europe (ex DACH)3) US Pooled IRR 6.8% 7.9% 5.1% Min 2.1% 4.7% -59.4% Max 18.2% 17.4% 938.1% Q1 Upper 8.7% 8.9% 16.0% Q2 Median 7.9% 8.0% 8.1% Q3 Lower 7.1% 6.9% -3.3% Average best performer (Q1) 10.8% 11.0% 123.1% Average worst performer (Q4) 6.0% 6.0% -32.2% 4)
  • 21. Agenda 21 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  • 22. Accessing the Mittelstand 22 Local network Local advisors Local partners Local joint ventures  Sourcing partnerships with local banks, but also other local managers can help accelerate deal flow  Opportunity for joint-invest and co-invest in larger deals  Banks are increasingly open to transactions  So far no revenue sharing except for “operating business“ or the table from PD  Private Equity has been successful by leveraging a network of local senior advisors  Industry experts can support credit process and evaluation  Accessing the local network of corporate & debt advisors beyond the obvious Tier 1 names  Smaller, local advisors are relationship driven, auditors, lawyers etc. Local feel & lobby  Strong presence and sponsoring of local events, including associations and the political and financial community necessary Local employee office  Local language essential to access Mittelstand  Local office underlines regional focus 1 2 3 4 5 6
  • 23. Thank you! Any questions? 23
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