Presentation held by Dr. Nicolaus Loos at the Private Debt Investor Conference in Munich, June 23rd 2016:
The German Midmarket has for long been considered "closed shop" for European Private Debt players seeking to undertake Direct Lending transactions. Dr. Loos outlines the attractiveness of Germany in comparison to other EU markets and in particular highlights the Mittelstand as an investment case, offering a highly attractive risk-return profile for investors. Accessing this market needs careful considerations though.
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Non-Bank Lending in Germany: How Investors can access Lending to the Middelstand
1. Non-bank Lending in Germany: How Investors can
access Lending to the Mittelstand
Munich, June 23rd 2016
Dr. Nicolaus Loos
2. Agenda
2
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
3. Introduction to IKB and VALIN
Key figures as at 31 March 2016
1) The CET 1 ratios were calculated in accordance with the current legal status of the CRR as at the respective reporting date, including transitional provisions and the interpretations
published by the regulatory authorities and the interpretation thereof. The possibility that future EBA/ECB standards and interpretations or other regulatory action will lead to a
retrospective change in the CET 1 ratio cannot be ruled out.
3
Since 90 years financing partner for SMEs,
with a strong focus on German Mittelstand
5,000 focus clients across
Germany & Europe
and overall 20,000 SME contacts
1,050 employees (FTE)
Total assets: €19.6bn
Common Equity Tier 1 ratio1): 11.6%
We are providing a wide range of
corporate finance products
– from loans to capital market products
through to corporate advisory –
to SME clients and financial sponsors
across Europe
Luxemburg-based private debt
fund – structured, sponsored
and managed by IKB
Connecting institutional investors – e.g.
insurance companies and pension
funds – with German mid-market
borrowers in the Mittelstand
IKB provides Origination,
Investment Management, Risk
Management and further
servicing functions for
VALINFUNDS
Accessing European mid-marketcorporate loans
4. Margins in Germany are too low to compete against and they will not meet investor
target returns.
Accessing the German Mittelstand is impossible as CFOs of German SMEs do not
even want to talk to Direct Lenders.
Non-bank lending to German Corporates is almost impossible for Private Debt
players given major competition from German banks.
Germany‘s national soccer team cannot be beaten and will win the Euro 2016 Cup!
Key Myths about Germany
4
2
3
1
4
5. Agenda
5
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
6. Average GDP growth vs industry share by country Industrial production by country (index 2010=100)
Exports/ Imports as % of GDPGerman GDP and annual growth rates
580
620
660
700
740
2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015
Forecast
+0.9%
+3.9%
+3.4%
+0.8%
-5.6%
+3.9%
+3.7%
+0.6%
+0.4%
+1.6%
+1.4%
+1.7%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Productionindex(2010=100)
Germany France Italy Spain Euro-Area
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Average industry share 2011-15
AverageGDPgrowthin%
2011-15
Germany UK France Italy Spain
33.1%
30.2%
30.0%
27.4%
46.9%
30.7%
27.0%
31.4%
29.4%
39.1%
Spain
Italy
France
UK
Germany
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
% of GDP 2015
Imports Exports
Germany benefits from positive macroeconomic developments
Sources: EIU, Statistisches Bundesamt
6
GDP, real, quarterly in €bn
GER +9.5
EU +4.1
FR +1.1
ES -2.4
IT -6.2
1.6% / 30.5%
-0.7% / 23.8%
-0.1% / 23.2%
1.0% / 19.7%
2.1% / 20.1%
7. 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Germany UK France Italy
Revenue growth (yoy)
2013 2014 2015
European mid-markets playing a leading role in driving national growth rates
Mid-market comparison of EU-4 economies (Germany, UK, France, Italy)
1) EU 4 including Germany, UK, France and Italy; Mid-market defined as follows (in annual turnover): Germany: €20m - €1bn; UK €20m - €1bn; France: €10m - €500m ; Italy €5m -
€250m; as of 2013
Source: GE Capital
7
Mid-market revenue and workforce development 2013-2015
All other companiesMid-market companies
EU-4 Mid-market profile1)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Germany UK France Italy
Workforce growth (yoy)
2013 2014 2015
29%
Employees
33%
GDP
1%
Firms
31%
Revenue
8. Importance of upper mid-market (€50m - €1bn)
Mittelstand propelled Germany to a global player with solid market share
German corporate pyramid based on turnover Mid-caps – Backbone of German economy
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
8
Private debt fund
focus
1,875
9,269
10,370
71,169
273,647
633,262
507
Number of companies 2014 by turnover
30.6%
2014
0.3%
2014
~22,000
companies
Turnover
(in €m)
>€1,000
€250 - €1,000
€50 - €250
€25 - €50
€5 - €25
€1 - €5
€0.25- €1
Share in revenue
Share in total companies
9. Private debt
fund focus
8.0%
16.8%
19.1%
23.5%
30.5%
19.5%
< 1 1 - 25 25 - 100 100 -
500
500 -
1,000
> 1,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Turnover in €m
%changeinGernan
companies2006-14
Change in no. of corporates by size 2006-14 (in %)
Foreign activity of European mid-caps 2014-15
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
2014-15
internationalrevenuegrowth
(yoy,predicted)
2014-15 total mid-market revenue growth
(yoy, actual)
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Foreign direct investment in Europe 2010-14
11.4%
8.9%
7.3% 6.5% 5.9%
Germany Spain Italy France UK
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
ShareofFDI(%)
FDI in % of national investments (Ø2010-14)
Development of German corporate landscape 2006-14
Growth supported by economic recovery and international expansion
Significant growth in larger mid-cap segment Globalisation and industrialisation are key growth driver
Sources: Statistisches Bundesamt, Bundesbank, ECB, GE Capital
9
4.0% / 4.6%
2.5% / 4.1%
3.7% / 4.9%
3.9% / 7.6%
10. Production levels and capacity utilisation in Germany
85
95
105
115
65
75
85
95
Productionindex
Capacityutilisation
Capacity utilisation in % Production index (2010=100)
12% 13% 13% 11% 14% 12% 15%
48% 50% 48% 54% 53% 52% 49%
32% 30% 31%
29% 28% 30% 31%
165
139
143
156
145 144
158
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Fundingin%oftotalinvestment
Grossinvestment(€bn) Subsidies Own funds
Bank loans Capital investments (gross)
Investments as % of GDP
German mid-cap lending mainly driven by growth/ capex requirement
Mid-cap lending driven by economic recovery, pick up in investment and corresponding capex requirement
Sources: EIU, KfW Mittelstandspanel, Statistisches Bundesamt
10
Mid-market investments and type of funding
Ø utilisation
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Investmentsas%ofGDP
Germany UK France Italy Spain
ES 6.9%
GER 6.6%
IT 5.5%
FR 4.8%
UK 4.0%
11. 9%
24%
32%
13%
18%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
25.4%
26.3% 26.6% 26.9%
27.4%
28.6%
29.7%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
Average equity ratio
Prevailing financing structures allow for lending opportunity in healthy
corporate sector
Sources: Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK), KfW
Mittelstandspanel
11
Interest cover of European NFCs Liquidity profile of European NFCs
Cash flow metrics of European NFCsEquity ratio of German mid-caps
-10%
10%
30%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
cash flow from op. activities to total assets
capital expanditures (capex) to total assets
net debt to total assets
op. cash flow net of capex to net debt
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
cash flow from op. activities to total assets
capital expanditures (capex) to total assets
net debt to total assets
op. cash flow net of capex to net debt
2x
5x
5x
3x
4x
2x
3x
4x
5x
6x
7x
8x
Italy France Germany Spain UK
10%
10%
10%
7%
8%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
2011 2013 2015
Cash plus ST assets in % of total assets
12. Agenda
12
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
13. German three-pillar banking system
1) Balance sheet total excludes total cumulated assets of Building & Loan Associations of €213.1bn
Source: Bundesbank
13
Supervision:
Commercial Banks Public Banks Cooperative Banks1 2 3
Balance sheet total: €2,104bn1)Balance sheet total: €3,081bn1) Balance sheet total: €1,115bn
4 Big Banks 1.021 Credit Unions413 Savings Banks
2 Central Institutions
9 Federal State Banks
Building & Loan Associations
State Driven
Support
160 Regional / 106 Foreign Banks
Building & Loan Associations
14. 5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
Totalassetsin€bn
Balance sheet sum of German banks
Loans to European NFCs Short-term debt portion of European NFCs
Balance sheet sum of banks in Germany in €bnBank assets to GDP
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
yoychange(%)
Germany France Italy Spain Euro Zone
Banks remain dominant external – yet declining – source of funding…
Sources: ECB, Bundesbank, Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany,
Spain and UK)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
TotalbankassetstoGDP(x)
Germany France Italy Spain
FR 3.7x
ES 2.6x
GER 2.5x
IT 2.4x
4/2016
FR +4.5%
GER +3.5%
EU +0.9%
ES -1.5%
IT -1.9%
5/2012
€8,860bn 4/2016
€7,807bn
-12%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Shorttermdebt
tototaldebt(%)
Germany UK France Italy Spain
GER 33%
FR 28%
IT 26%
ES 20%
UK 16%
14
15. 7,0581)
6,007
4,552
3,578
2,466
2,400
2,344
2,301
2,277
2,169
2,128
2,093
2,080
2,053
2,029
1,990
Net interest income of selected German banks
Further Regulation
Basel II Global financial
crisis
Further Regulation
Basel III
Regulation
Regulation
Basel I
Ongoing consolidation in the German banking sector
15
2008: Merger of Deutsche
Bank and Postbank
1980s: DG Bank merge
with several regional
central banks2); Bayr.
Vereinsbank and Bayr.
Hypotheken- und
Wechselbank form HVB
0%
1%
2%
3%
4% All banking groups
Big banks
Federal state banks
Savings banks
Cooperative banks
Credit unions
1) Total number of banks in Germany; 2) Including Bayrische Raiffeisen-Zentralbank AG and Bayrische Volksbanken AG, among others
Sources: Bundesbank, Statistisches Bundesamt, IKB research
1970: Merger of two regional Banks
(near Münster) and the cooporative
central bank Rhineland to form
WGZ-Bank
2000: Merger of
South-West German
cooperative central
banks to form the
SGZ-Bank and GZB-
Bank
2005: WestLB acquires
Weberbank
2003: Merger of Hamburgischer LB
and LB Schleswig-Holstein; HVB sells
Norisbank to DZ Bank
2004: LBBW takes over LB
Rheinland-Pfalz; Private bank
Sal. Oppenheim acquires BHF
2002: Split up of WestLB to
Landesbank NRW and WestLB AG
2009: HSH on the edge to
insolvency; Merger of Dres-
dner Bank and Commerzbank
2007: WestLB split into three
parts, following a dramatic loss
from speculations
2006: Deutsche Bank
acquires Berliner Bank and
branch net-work of Norisbank
2016: Agreed merger of
DZ and WGZ
16. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
UK France Germany Other EU
Alternative lending in Europe – Status quo & upside in Germany
Primary deal distribution across Europe
1) Q4/ 2015; Deal tracker covers 42 alternative lenders; only primary mid-market deal included: in the last 13 quarters. 629 deals mid-market deals are recorded in Europe; 2)
Cumulated UK, France and Germany
Source: Deloitte
16
Alternative lenders increasing deal flow in Europe
63
60
66
53
61
79
4141
54
3534
24
~13% ~14%~8%~8%
LTM German share
18
Total # deal: 629
Alternative lending deals in Europe1)
# of deals
Relative share of GDP2) vs
relative share of alternative
lender deals
1
1
5
2
18
149
74
274
13
10
1
8
28.2% 30.0%
32.7% 55.1%
39.1% 14.9%
19
27
4
3
UK
43%
France
24%
Germany
12%
Other
European
21%
629
11
17. Agenda
17
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
18. Overall credit quality in Europe keeps improving…
Sources: Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK), Euler Hermes
18
Trends and risk indicators in European bank lending
Interest rates and expected default frequency yoy change in insolvencies
Sales and profit vulnerabilityLending conditions and lending growth
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-8 -4 0 4 8
Tighteninginlending
conditions
Lending growth
Dec-2014
Dec-2015
Dec-2011
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3
Interestrateon
bankloans
Expected default frequency
Germany France Italy Spain
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Italy France Germany Spain UK
reporting annual change in net revenues < 10-year average
reporting net loss
Number of companies in percentage of the sample as of December 2015
2015 vs. 2014 in %
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail/Trade
Transportation
Service
Countrytotal
Germany -15% -6% -4% -7% -13% -1% -4%
France -3% -7% -3% -4% -9% -1% 1%
Italy - -14% -8% -6% -6% -2% -6%
UK -24% -8% -11% -3% -11% -6% -14%
Spain 25% -39% -34% -17% -35% -19% -26%
Ø change by sector -4% -15% -12% -7% -15% -6% -10%
same indicators for previous year
Dec-2014
Dec-2015
Dec-2011
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3
Interestrateon
bankloans
Expected default frequency
Germany France Italy Spain
19. 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
S&P ELLI loan default rate (based upon issuer count)
...while Germany in particular has a track record of extremely low default rates
Default rates in Germany
Sources: Creditreform, LCD
19
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Default rates of German corporates with sales >€20m
Historical development of overall defaults
0.70
0.56
0.16
0.57
0.38
0.04
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
20-50 50-250 >250
2014 2015
0.64
0.10
0.47
Ø default rates
German default rate by company size (turnover)
3/2016
1.95%
20. …while offering solid returns
YTM of primary leveraged loans (TLB1)) by country
1) All purposes, corporate and sponsored; 2) Excluding lowest IRR outlier in each category; 3) Continental Europe ex UK; 4) Q1/Q2 YTD
Sources: CEPRES, LCD, Dialogic
20
2014 2015 2016 YTD
France Germany Italy Netherlands United Kingdom United States
HY corporate bonds – Average spreads to swap Europe
Average quarterly spreads to swap (bps)
CEPRES® IRRs – DACH vs Europe vs US
2013 2014 2015 2016
Spreadtoswapinbps
France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom
Senior 2)
DACH
Europe
(ex DACH)3) US
Pooled IRR 6.8% 7.9% 5.1%
Min 2.1% 4.7% -59.4%
Max 18.2% 17.4% 938.1%
Q1 Upper 8.7% 8.9% 16.0%
Q2 Median 7.9% 8.0% 8.1%
Q3 Lower 7.1% 6.9% -3.3%
Average best performer (Q1) 10.8% 11.0% 123.1%
Average worst performer (Q4) 6.0% 6.0% -32.2%
4)
21. Agenda
21
1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2
2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5
3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12
4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17
5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
22. Accessing the Mittelstand
22
Local network
Local advisors
Local partners
Local joint ventures
Sourcing partnerships with local banks, but also other local managers can help accelerate deal flow
Opportunity for joint-invest and co-invest in larger deals
Banks are increasingly open to transactions
So far no revenue sharing except for “operating business“ or the table from PD
Private Equity has been successful by leveraging a network of local senior advisors
Industry experts can support credit process and evaluation
Accessing the local network of corporate & debt advisors beyond the obvious Tier 1 names
Smaller, local advisors are relationship driven, auditors, lawyers etc.
Local feel & lobby
Strong presence and sponsoring of local events, including associations and the political and
financial community necessary
Local employee office
Local language essential to access Mittelstand
Local office underlines regional focus
1
2
3
4
5
6