1. The European Union
Climate Change Challenges
& Opportunities
10 December 2008

2. EU climate change policy
The EU has implemented a range of policies to combat climate
change and deliver on its Kyoto commitments
• June 2000
Commission launches first European Climate Change Program (ECCP I)
• January 2005
Start of the EU's greenhouse gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS )
• October 2005
Launch of second European Climate Change Program (ECCP II)
• January 2007
Commission presents its quot;energy-climate change packagequot;

3. Is Cap & Trade the answer?
Source : The European Environment Agency

4. Is Cap & Trade the answer?
Carbon price
No single carbon market... No
reference price with big fluctuation
ECX CFI Futures Contracts: Price and Volume
Total Volume
€35
40.000.000 Dec08 Sett
35.000.000 €30
VOLUME (million tonnes CO2)
30.000.000
Price per tonne (EUR)
€25
25.000.000
€20
20.000.000
€15
15.000.000
€10
10.000.000
€5
5.000.000
€0
0
6 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08
6 6 6 6
00 00 00 00 00 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
2/2 4/2 /06/2 8/2 /09/2 /11 /01 /03 /05 /07 /09 /11 /01 /03 /05 /07 /08 /10
6/0 4/0 1/0
5 27 23 23 21 18 16 11 07 08 05 06 02 28 24

5. Is Cap & Trade the answer?
Windfall profit

6. Is ap & Trade the answer?
Moving Forwards
EU’s commitment to continued leadership
in the climate change issue
European Role:
Emission Trading Scheme
•The •
EU's overriding priority is to reach an
The 20/20/20 by 2020 EU policy
ambitious and comprehensive international
climate agreement for the post 2012 period
• Review of the ETS
•Promote market-based instruments such as
• Full Auctioning of allowances ... No
the EU Emissions Trading Scheme
more free allocation
•Include more sectors in emissions reductions
• Investments in CCS and Zero Emission
•Promote climate-friendly technologies Energy technologies

7. Integrating Energy Security with Climate
Change: Major issues
Electricity Carbon
price leakage
Volatility
Financing
of carbon
CCS
price
Allocation
of auction
revenue

8. Integrating Energy Security with Climate
Change: Risk for Electricity Prices
Potential energy costs changes in 2020 (%)
CO2 price 39 EUR 35 EUR 30 EUR
Iron & Steel 18.2% 16.0% 12.5%
Non-ferrous metal 3.9% 3.7% 3.5%
Chemical 6.3% 5.8% 4.9%
Non-metallic minerals of which: 9.2% 7.9% 6.0%
cement 8.9% 7.6% 5.7%
ceramics 8.8% 7.6% 5.8%
glass 8.9% 7.8% 6.1%
Paper and Pulp 14.0% 13.1% 10.5%
Source: European Commission, 2008.

9. Integrating Energy Security with Climate
Change: Risk for EU Competitiveness
Carbon leakage: If the emissions policy of a country raises local costs, then another country with
a more relaxed policy may have a trading advantage.
To avoid delocalisation of undertakings to such countries, the proposed ETS scheme envisages granting free allowances to a
number of sectors....
Sectors that have announced
Sectors currently being analysed Sectors that have provided Information
that they will provide information
Aluminium Ceramics Man-made fibres
Steel and Iron Chemicals Starch
Cement Pulp and paper Boards
Magnesite and graphite Manganese
Potassium Nickel
Refineries Expanded clay
Zinc Textiles
Tyres
Copper
Glass
Aviation
Proposed Valuation Criteria: Loss of 5% in Trade Value

10. Integrating Energy Security with Climate
Change: Risks
• Increasing of import tariffs ....
• Subsidies to EU companies to export ...