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Market report
1. Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
OAKLAND | CALIFORNIA
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT
Industrial Market Review
I-80/I-880 Corridor Closes 2013 Strong with a Solid Fourth Quarter
MARKET INDICATORS
Q4-13
The I-80/I-880 Corridor Industrial Market ended the year with another strong quarter capping off an
extremely positive 2013. Vacancy rates in the market decreased for the ninth consecutive quarter and
landlords are seeing quality product leased or purchased shortly after being put on the market, often
with competing offers which meet or exceed asking rates. Overall, there has been a significant decline
in vacancy across all product lines, most notably in warehouse/distribution product which had an 8.1
percent vacancy rate a year ago versus its current 6.0 percent. Additionally, light industrial product
and R&D/flex vacancy rates are presently down from 6.9 percent and 16.0 percent at this time last
year to 5.3 and 13.7 percent respectively.
Projected
Q1-14
VACANCY
Year-to-date net absorption for industrial, warehouse, and R&D/flex sectors for the I-80/I-880
Corridor is 2,769,786 square feet, a noteworthy increase from the year end net absorption in 2012
of 1,291,528 square feet. Both absorption and vacancy rates should continue to yield strong results
projecting into 2014.
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATE
SELECTED MARKET STATISTICS
>> Year-to-date gross absorption
is 8,721,518 square feet
>> Vacancy this quarter was 6.3 percent
compared to 6.9 percent last quarter
>> Year to date net absorption is 2,865,866
square feet compared to 1,291,528 square
feet at the end of 2012
Another notable statistic in comparison to a year ago is the amount of new construction taking place
throughout the market. Nearly 1,000,000 square feet is currently in progress, up from 517,575 square
feet at this time last year, and an additional 2,000,000-3,000,000 square feet is set to break ground
in 2014. Asking rates for this new Class A product are expected to be in the $0.50-$0.55 NNN per
square foot range.
A subsequent result of the overall health of the market and steady decline in vacancy rates is an
upward trend in the average asking rates for available properties. Rates edged up in the fourth
quarter, as they did in the first three quarters of 2013 and have risen by 7-10 percent per square foot
since this time last year.
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
I-80/I-880 CORRIDOR | OVERALL INDUSTRIAL MARKET
12%
$0.60
10%
$0.55
8%
$0.50
6%
$0.45
4%
$0.40
2%
$0.35
0%
$0.30
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
www.colliers.com/oakland
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
Vacancy has
decreased
in the fourth
quarter of
2013 for
the ninth
consecutive
quarter with
positive rental
growth. A
trend we
expect will
continue into
2014.
2. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
(continued from page 1)
User sales remain active as tenants continue to seek and purchase product
while financing rates remain at historic lows, nearly unchanged since the
first three quarters of the year. A total of five user purchases greater
than 25,000 square feet closed in the fourth quarter. Likewise, investment
sales remain plentiful as investors continue to pursue product with long
term existing leases in place from high credit tenants. Cap rates on these
transactions are at historically low levels (5.5-6.5 percent), a further sign
of the general health of the market.
For the first time since the late 1990’s speculative development has
emerged as the demand for Class A product is outweighing the current
supply in the market. This demand, along with the positive leasing activity
exhibited quarter by quarter in 2013 prompts high levels of optimism that
these upward trends will continue into 2014 throughout the I-80/I-880
Corridor Industrial Market.
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
I-80/I-880 CORRIDOR | WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION
12%
$0.50
10%
$0.45
8%
$0.40
6%
$0.35
4%
$0.30
2%
$0.25
0%
$0.20
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
I-80/I-880 CORRIDOR | R&D/FLEX MARKET
I-80/I-880 CORRIDOR | LIGHT INDUSTRIAL
24%
$1.10
20%
$1.00
16%
$0.90
12%
$0.80
8%
$0.70
4%
$0.60
0%
$0.50
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
9%
$0.65
8%
$0.60
7%
$0.55
6%
$0.50
5%
$0.45
4%
$0.40
3%
$0.35
2%
$0.30
1%
$0.25
0%
$0.20
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
26250 CORPORATE
AVENUE, HAYWARD
This 108,604 square
foot property sold to
KZ Kitchen Cabinets
and Stone in December
2013, representing the
largest user sale of the
quarter in the I-80/I-880
Corridor industrial
market
P. 2
| COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - OAKLAND
3. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
RICHMOND
The Richmond industrial market saw a
decrease in vacancy this year to 6.8 percent,
down from 10.8 percent the previous year,
with positive absorption in light industrial and
warehouse/distribution sectors. Light industrial
vacancy has dropped to 6.6 percent from 11.4
percent a year ago, and warehouse/distribution
vacancy is presently 6.3 percent compared
to 8.2 percent in 2012. We expect vacancy
rates to continue tightening as we enter 2014
as leasing activity continues to flourish in
functional space. The majority of vacant space
in Richmond is made up of older, dysfunctional
space which lies dormant quarter after quarter.
Regional economic growth has fueled a high
demand for Class A space in Richmond driven
by tenants from Berkeley, Emeryville, and
Marin County who are forced into Richmond
as available space diminishes in neighboring
markets. Richmond is an attractive market
due to its relatively low rates and access to
Marin County and the Port of Oakland. R&D/
flex vacancy rates have declined to 7.6 percent,
down from 13.3 percent at this time in 2012,
though flat in the fourth quarter, year-to-date
absorption was 194,702 square feet.
Asking rental rates for all product types have
remained closed to flat or slightly increased
over the last year, light industrial moving from
$0.52 to $0.53 NNN psf/mo, warehouse/
distribution from $0.28 to $0.30 NNN psf/mo,
and R&D/flex average asking rates presently
$0.73, up from $0.71 NNN psf/mo. Rents are
projected to increase into 2014 as more and
more developers look to break ground on new
Class A projects. At Pinole Point Business
Park, there is a planned development of
500,000 square feet of state of the art Class
A warehouse/distribution buildings. With an
abundance of land available, a strong demand
for Class A space, and an active developer
interest we foresee improving conditions
and speculative development of warehouse/
distribution product. We expect to post strong
numbers in 2014 as there are several large
tenants looking for space in the I-80 Corridor
and interest is increasing in build-to-suit
activity in the Richmond market.
1
2
San
Francisco
Bay
3
4
5
SUBMARKET MAP KEY
1 Richmond
Hercules, Pinole, Richmond, San Pablo, El Cerrito
Oakland, Alameda
San Leandro, San Lorenzo
2 Oakland
3 San Leandro
4 Hayward
Hayward
5 Union City
Union City
675 Alfred Nobel Drive, Hercules
LEASE AND SALES ACTIVITY
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS
LEASE DATE
SIZE
TENANT
TYPE
675 Alfred Nobel Drive, Hercules
December 2013
16,397
PTRL West
Light Industrial
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
RICHMOND | WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION
RICHMOND | LIGHT INDUSTRIAL
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
RICHMOND | R&D/FLEX
14%
$1.10
$0.55
12%
$1.00
$0.50
10%
$0.90
8%
$0.80
6%
12%
$0.60
16%
$0.40
24%
20%
16%
$0.70
4%
$0.60
2%
$0.50
$0.35
4%
$0.45
$0.40
4%
$0.30
12%
8%
8%
$0.35
$0.25
0%
$0.20
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
0%
$0.30
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
$0.40
0%
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - OAKLAND |
P. 3
4. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
OAKLAND
Vacancy in the Oakland industrial market
increased to 6.2 percent from 5.9 at the end
of 2012. Light industrial vacancy was flat
at 5.6 and warehouse/distribution vacancy
increased to 7.3 percent from 6.5 percent.
There is a high demand for industrial real
estate in Oakland; it is geographically one of
the most desirable locations for owner/users
in the East Bay, however the quality of space
is not up to par with that of its neighboring
submarkets. Leasing activity has also slowed
because inventory is tight and there is a lack of
developable space. We expect to see changes
in vacancy rates and a positive progression in
absorption numbers in the early half of 2014, as
construction of the Goodman Logistics Center
at 8350 Pardee Street, a 374,725 square foot
Class A warehouse/distribution facility, is
completed and available for lease. Other
notable spaces that have come on the market
this quarter are 39 4th Street, 46,092 square
feet of warehouse/distribution and 845 92nd
Street, 35,500 square feet of warehouse and
manufacturing on 4.12 acres of land.
1
2
San
Francisco
Bay
3
4
5
SUBMARKET MAP KEY
1 Richmond
Hercules, Pinole, Richmond, San Pablo, El Cerrito
Oakland, Alameda
San Leandro, San Lorenzo
2 Oakland
3 San Leandro
4 Hayward
Hayward
5 Union City
Union City
industrial rates have increased to $0.53 from
$0.47 NNN psf/mo since the outset of the
year. As vacancy declines, we see upward
pressure on rents in light industrial product.
Higher quality product is available in Oakland’s
neighboring markets to the south along the
I-880 Corridor but Oakland remains the sought
after location for many users. Warehouse/
distribution rates have decreased to $0.41 from
$0.42 NNN psf/mo.
Overall net absorption in 2013 was negative
88,653 square feet with only a moderate
amount of leasing and user sale activity. Though
absorption this quarter was negative, we do not
see it as indicative of a long term trend. We
are hopeful that investment activity will pick
up as rates continue to increase and vacancy
remains low. Leases this quarter include
22,200 square feet at 515 Independent Road
by East Bay Glass, 17,000 square feet leased
by John Murray Productions at 3109 Adeline
Street and EB Ford moved into 15,360 square
feet at 70 Hegenberger Loop. Renewals include
Johnstone Supply on 21,299 at 333 Market.
Asking rental rates have increased over the
course of 2013 ending the year at $0.49 NNN
psf/mo compared to $0.45 last year. Light
LEASE AND SALES ACTIVITY
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS
LEASE DATE
SIZE
TENANT
TYPE
515 Independent Road, Oakland
December 2013
22,200
East Bay Glass
Light Industrial
3109-3115 Adeline Street, Oakland
October 2013
17,000
John Murray Productions
Warehouse/Distribution
70 Hegenberger Loop, Oakland
November 2013
15,360
EB Ford
Light Industrial
2525 Mandela Parkway, Suite B, Oakland
October 2013
10,000
SF Enterprises
Light Industrial
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
VACANCY VS. ASKING FULL SERVICE RENTAL RATES
VACANCY VS. ASKING FULL SERVICE RENTAL RATES
OAKLAND | WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION
OAKLAND AIRPORT | LIGHT INDUSTRIAL
16%
$0.44
7%
$0.58
14%
$0.42
6%
$0.54
12%
$0.40
5%
$0.50
10%
$0.38
4%
$0.46
8%
$0.36
3%
$0.42
2%
$0.38
$0.34
6%
$0.34
4%
$0.32
2%
$0.30
1%
$0.28
0%
0%
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
P. 4
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
| COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - OAKLAND
$0.30
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
4Q
2012
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
5. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
SAN LEANDRO
Vacancy in the San Leandro industrial submarket
has decreased over the course of 2013, dropping
from 5.8 percent overall at the end of last year
to 4.4 percent presently. The most dramatic
decrease in vacancy was in the R&D/flex sector
where vacancy went from 12.0 percent to 7.4
percent, with positive 38,487 square feet of net
absorption. Warehouse/distribution vacancy
went from 4.9 to 3.2 percent with a positive net
absorption of 247,963 square feet, the majority
of space leased in the fourth quarter. Leasing
activity is high among both users and investors.
As demand continues to outpace supply
available in neighboring markets, users are
moving south along the I-880 Corridor leasing
up the remaining vacant spaces available in San
Leandro.
Overall asking rental rates have increased, rising
from $0.45 to $0.50 NNN psf/mo year over year.
Heavy leasing activity in warehouse/distribution
markets has forced upward pressure on
rates. Warehouse/distribution asking rates are
presently $0.43 compared to $0.36 NNN psf/
mo at the outset of the year. After experiencing
a drop in rental rates after a slow 2012, the
R&D/flex sector has been revived with rents
back up to $0.85 from $0.67 NNN psf/mo. Light
industrial asking rates are presently stagnant at
$0.51 NNN psf/mo remaining the same since
the beginning of the year. We expect rental rates
to increase for all product categories by 6-10
percent in 2014 and possibly further for the
most functional product.
Overall gross absorption was positive with a
32 percent increase over year-end 2012, the
majority of spaces absorbed being larger blocks
of warehouse/distribution space. In the fourth
quarter, East Bay Logistics leased 105,450 at
1800 Merced Street and NBC Packaging took
62,761 square feet at 1525 Alvarado Street.
User sales include 40,051 square feet of light
industrial space to Alco metals at 1588 Doolittle
Drive earlier this year and 26,400 square feet
to Bulling Metal Works at 459 Hester. Significant
leasing activity this year and an increase in tour
activity points to strong net absorption going
into 2014.
Investment transactions were strong in 2013,
characterized by a combination of owner/user,
re-development, and asset acquisitions. KTR
Capital Partners, an investor, purchased the
entire Simmons Complex, a Class B/C multitenant leased investment of 513,000 square
feet at 1700 Fairway Drive and 1400 Factor
Avenue. In addition, a total of 73,263 square
feet of light industrial space at 492-693 Hester
sold to an investor at the start of the quarter.
We expect this trend to continue in 2014 as the
San Leandro market continues to retain low
vacancies and experience rental rate growth.
In response to the high demand for warehouse
space, planned construction and development
has increased. Preferred Freezer is building
nearly 250,000 square feet of state of the art
full service temperature controlled Class A
warehouse at 400 Polar Way, San Leandro.
We expect the 50 million dollar facility will
be completed by the second quarter of 2014.
Kaiser Permanente San Leandro Medical
Center is expected to complete its 1 billion dollar
1
2
San
Francisco
Bay
3
4
5
SUBMARKET MAP KEY
1 Richmond
Hercules, Pinole, Richmond, San Pablo, El Cerrito
Oakland, Alameda
San Leandro, San Lorenzo
2 Oakland
3 San Leandro
4 Hayward
Hayward
5 Union City
Union City
711,000 square foot, six-level, phase one of
the hospital campus along Merced Street in
the fourth quarter of 2014. Nearly 25 acres
of the 63 acre site is still open for additional
Kaiser Permanente development or probable
high-end retail, hotel or mixed use type
development.
LEASE AND SALES ACTIVITY
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS
LEASE DATE
SIZE
TENANT
TYPE
2350 Williams Street, San Leandro
November 2013
94,275
Zinus
Warehouse/Distribution
2020 Williams Street, Suite E, San Leandro
November 2013
71,489
Sirio North America
Manufacturing
1525 Alvarado Street, Building E, San Leandro
November 2013
62,761
NBC Packaging
Warehouse/Distribution
1250 Business Center Drive, Building C, San Leandro
November 2013
26,500
Cornerstone Marble
Warehouse/Distribution
SALES ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS
SALE DATE
SIZE
BUYER
TYPE
1400-1420 Doolittle Drive, San Leandro
December 2013
15,010
A-Para Transit
Light Industrial
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
SAN LEANDRO | WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION
SAN LEANDRO | LIGHT INDUSTRIAL
7%
$0.50
6%
$0.45
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
SAN LEANDRO | R&D/FLEX
$0.40
4%
$0.55
10%
$0.50
8%
$0.45
6%
5%
12%
$0.40
4%
$0.35
$0.35
3%
$0.30
2%
$0.25
1%
$0.20
2%
$0.30
0%
$0.15
0%
$0.25
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
18%
$1.05
16%
$1.00
14%
$0.95
12%
$0.90
10%
$0.85
8%
$0.80
6%
$0.75
4%
$0.70
2%
$0.65
0%
$0.60
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - OAKLAND |
P. 5
6. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
HAYWARD
Overall vacancy has trended down in all three
submarkets since the fourth quarter of 2012.
There were drastic improvements in both light
industrial and warehouse/distribution vacancy
numbers. Current light industrial rates are 4.5
percent compared to 7.6 percent last year and
warehouse/distribution vacancy 6.8 percent
compared to 9.5 percent. While R&D/flex
vacancy lagged with negative 181,089 square
feet of absorption and increased vacancy rate of
17.0 percent versus 13.1 percent last year. This
increase in vacancy is attributed to over four
blocks of R&D/flex space above 20,000 square
feet coming onto the market this year. We expect
a continued decrease in vacancy rate consistent
with regional economic growth. Hayward’s close
proximity to San Francisco and Silicon Valley will
continue to warrant national and international
companies to consider the location.
1
2
San
Francisco
Bay
3
4
5
SUBMARKET MAP KEY
1 Richmond
Hercules, Pinole, Richmond, San Pablo, El Cerrito
Oakland, Alameda
San Leandro, San Lorenzo
Overall asking rental rates appear relatively
stable, presently $0.46 compared to $0.47 NNN
psf/mo year over year; there has been a slight
increase in the light industrial and warehouse/
distribution sectors, while the R&D/flex market
experienced a significant decrease. Light
industrial asking rates are presently $0.51 NNN
psf/mo compared to $0.50 NNN psf/mo and
warehouse/distribution asking rates are $0.39
compared to $0.38 NNN psf/mo at the outset
of the year. R&D/flex asking rates have dropped
from $0.70 to $0.55 NNN psf/mo. We expect
both asking rates and completed lease rates to
2 Oakland
3 San Leandro
4 Hayward
Hayward
5 Union City
Union City
trend upwards with fewer concessions over the
first half of 2014. With historically lower rental
rates and shrinking vacancies in neighboring
submarkets, we anticipate increased activity
from users migrating south along the I-880
Corridor.
Hayward fared well in 2013, boasting one of the
most active fourth quarters in the I-80/I-880
Corridor industrial market. Net absorption for
the year was 899,262 square feet, majority
being large warehouse spaces in the fourth
quarter. Nor-Cal Moving leased 333,302 square
feet at 3129 Corporate, scheduled to commence
in the first quarter of 2014, Airport Appliance
took 151,630 square feet at 3525 Arden Road
and Induspac moved into 87,500 square feet
at 21062 Forbes Street. Many local tenants
renewed or expanded on large blocks of space.
Gexpro renewed on 123,000 square feet in
Peppertree Industrial Center and Purcell Murray
expanded into a 61,000 square foot space at
2351 Lincoln Avenue.
Hayward’s thriving warehouse market has
caught investor attention with KTR Capital
Partners acquisition of a 215,000 square
foot manufacturing space at 31775 Hayman,
and 150,000 square feet purchased by Brad
Management at 30526 San Antonio Street. We
expect investment activity to increase in 2014 as
rents continue to rise and demand expands to all
tenant size ranges.
LEASE AND SALES ACTIVITY
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS
LEASE DATE
SIZE
TENANT
TYPE
3129-3147 Corporate Place
October 2013
333,302
Nor-Cal Moving and Storage Inc.
Warehouse/Distribution
3525 Arden Road, Hayward
November 2013
151,389
Airport Appliance
Warehouse/Distribution
21062 Forbes Street, Hayward
December 2013
87,500
Induspac
Warehouse/Distribution
2816 West Winton Avenue, Building 2, Hayward
October 2013
82,157
EDE
Warehouse/Distribution
PROPERTY ADDRESS
SALE DATE
SIZE
BUYER
TYPE
26250 Corporate Avenue, Hayward
December 2013
108,604
KZ Kitchen Cabinets and Stone
Warehouse/Distribution
26587 Corporate Avenue, Hayward
December 2013
47,637
Agio
Light Industrial
SALES ACTIVITY
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
HAYWARD | WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION
HAYWARD | LIGHT INDUSTRIAL
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
HAYWARD | R&D/FLEX
20%
$0.50
10%
$0.60
16%
$0.45
8%
$0.56
8%
$0.35
6%
$0.52
4%
$0.30
2%
$0.44
0%
$0.25
0%
$0.40
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
P. 6
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
| COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - OAKLAND
$0.70
$0.60
$0.50
4%
$0.40
$0.48
4%
1Q
2012
$0.80
16%
8%
$0.40
$0.90
12%
12%
24%
20%
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
0%
$0.30
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
7. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
UNION CITY
Rents in the Union City industrial market
are steady as vacancy continues to decline.
Vacancy in Union City continues to be the
lowest of all submarkets in the region, vacancy
is presently 3.8 percent, down from 8.9 percent
at this time in 2012. There has been a significant
decrease in vacancy across all product
lines; in the light industrial sector vacancy is
presently 1.8 percent, compared to 5.5 percent
in the previous year. Warehouse/distribution
ended the year at 4.8 percent compared to
11.9 percent last year and R&D/flex vacancy
decreased to 13.8 percent compared to 15.9
percent. There is a growing demand for Class
A space in Union City and 2013 improvements
in the economy have resulted in a decline in
large blocks for tenants. We expect vacancy to
remain relatively stable, despite the addition of
large blocks of Class A space within the next
few months. These spaces include 70,800
square feet which just came on the market at
30300 Union City Boulevard; 146,880 square
feet of warehouse/distribution space which
will become available at 1600-1640 Atlantic
Avenue in February of 2014. Leasing activity
has increased and any Class A product that
comes on the market will be quickly leased.
Activity in the Union City market has picked
up over the course of the year. Larger
lease transactions this year include 45,976
square feet leased by Rapid Displays, 46,937
square feet leased by Maz Packaging, and
30,200 square feet leased to BHJ Products
at Atlantic Court.
Notable sales include
Westcore’s acquisition of the Chronicle Facility
on Pacific Street. Situated on 16.34 acres of
land, Westcore plans to demolish the existing
buildings and re-develop the facility into
approximately 250,000 square feet made up
of four buildings to be named the Alimento
Business Park. We expect these activity levels
to continue as the market remains stable and
tenants try to sign new leases before significant
rental rate growth occurs. The majority of
tenants are coming from the I-880 market with
a new flush of tenants and buyers relocating
from the Peninsula due to cheaper rents/
sale prices and close proximity to the San
Mateo Bridge as booming economies in San
Francisco and the Silicon Valley drive rental
rates up. Greatway Transportation relocated
to Union City early fourth quarter, moving into
a 32,000 square feet of light industrial product
on Central Avenue.
1
2
San
Francisco
Bay
3
4
5
SUBMARKET MAP KEY
1 Richmond
Hercules, Pinole, Richmond, San Pablo, El Cerrito
Oakland, Alameda
Overall asking rental rates have increased
10 percent due to low vacancy rates through
most of the year. Rates are presently $0.51
compared to $0.46 NNN psf/mo at the end
of 2012. Both light industrial and warehouse/
distribution rates have slightly increased over
the course of the year. Light industrial average
asking rates are presently $0.47 NNN psf/mo
up from $0.45 NNN psf/mo and warehouse/
distribution $0.42 NNN psf/mo, up from $0.39
NNN psf/mo in 2012. R&D/flex rates have
decreased to $0.85 NNN psf/mo from $0.95
San Leandro, San Lorenzo
2 Oakland
3 San Leandro
4 Hayward
Hayward
5 Union City
Union City
NNN psf/mo. This decline in rental rates is
attributed to a larger demand for light industrial
and warehouse/distribution space and a lack of
good quality R&D/flex space. We expect to see
gradual improvements in rates over the first half
of 2014 as vacancy remains low and activity
levels continue to rise.
LEASE AND SALES ACTIVITY
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS
LEASE DATE
SIZE
TENANT
TYPE
1570-1580 Atlantic Street, Suite 1580, Union City
October 2013
46,937
Maz Packaging
Light Industrial
33508 Central Avenue, Union City
November 2013
29,964
Strapack
Warehouse/Distribution
33508-33580 Central Avenue, Union City
October 2013
25,878
Coremark International
Warehouse/Distribution
SALES ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS
SALE DATE
SIZE
BUYER
TYPE
33200-33220 Western Avenue, Union City
October 2013
39,000
Dynatron Corporation
Warehouse/Distribution
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
UNION CITY | WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION
UNION CITY | LIGHT INDUSTRIAL
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
UNION CITY | R&D/FLEX
16%
$0.45
12%
$0.40
8%
$0.35
10%
$0.60
8%
$0.55
6%
4%
$0.45
$0.30
2%
$0.40
0%
$0.25
0%
$0.35
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
$1.00
$0.95
$0.90
$0.85
8%
$0.80
4%
$0.75
$0.50
4%
1Q
2012
24%
12%
$0.50
20%
16%
20%
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
0%
$0.70
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - OAKLAND |
P. 7
8. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
NEWARK
Leasing activity is up and vacancy has decreased
significantly in the Newark market from a year
ago as several large blocks of space, specifically
in the R&D/flex market, were leased. Overall
vacancy is 12.1 percent, down from 13.9 percent
last year. R&D/flex vacancy alone has dropped to
17.0 percent from 24.6 percent and is expected
to continue decreasing. Leasing activity will
continue to increase as the market tightens
and the regional economic growth of the San
Francisco and Silicon Valley economies begins
to push tenants into Newark. Light industrial
vacancy has increased to 10.2 percent from
9.7 percent last year. Warehouse/distribution
vacancy has increased to 9.9 percent from 9.2
percent. We expect vacancy rates to remain
relatively steady over the next six months, with
small improvements due to continued favorable
conditions.
1
2
San
Francisco
Bay
3
4
5
SUBMARKET MAP KEY
1 Richmond
Hercules, Pinole, Richmond, San Pablo, El Cerrito
Oakland, Alameda
San Leandro, San Lorenzo
2 Oakland
Asking rental rates have remained relatively
strong throughout the year, with a notable
increase in the R&D/flex market, especially for
Class A product, driven by strong activity through
2013. Overall rates are $0.72 NNN psf/mo
compared to $0.67 NNN psf/mo last year. Asking
rates in all product types have increased over
the past year. R&D/flex rates are up 15 percent
to $0.91 NNN psf/mo from $0.79 NNN psf/mo
over the course of the year. Light industrial also
increased to $0.68 NNN psf/mo compared to
$0.61 NNN psf/mo, and warehouse/distribution
rates have increased to $0.49 from $0.47 NNN
psf/mo. We expect rates to remain flat, or slightly
increase, as the market and economy strengthen
causing vacancies to decrease.
3 San Leandro
4 Hayward
Hayward
5 Union City
Union City
Total gross absorption in Newark for the year
was higher than in 2012 for the overall Newark
market, with the highest positive absorption in
the R&D/flex sector. As in the larger market,
the majority of transactions occurred in the first
three quarters of 2013. Larger transactions this
year include Moving Solutions 80,258 square
foot lease at 7091 Central Avenue, VM Services
renewed a 75,997 square foot lease at 6701
Mowry Avenue and DCT Industrial renewed on
90,000 square feet at 38505 Cherry Street. We
expect activity to resume its pace of the first
three quarters as major tenants in the market
consider expanding and relocating within the
market, the majority of them with purchase
requirements.
Development activity is strong in Newark with
several projects planned or underway. 38811
Cherry Street is being redeveloped into a
575,000 square foot warehouse/distribution
complex deliverable in 2014. Located between
Oakland and San Jose, with land costs lower
than most of its neighboring submarkets, Newark
is becoming an optimum location for institutional
developers and investors.
8145 Enterprise Drive, Newark
LEASE AND SALES ACTIVITY
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS
LEASE DATE
SIZE
TENANT
TYPE
39684 Eureka Drive, Newark
October 2013
16,529
Enecsys
R&D/Flex
8145 Enterprise Drive, Newark
November 2013
15,150
Fletcher Jones Motorcars
Light Industrial
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
NEWARK | WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION
NEWARK | LIGHT INDUSTRIAL
VACANCY VS. ASKING NNN RENTAL RATES
$0.60
NEWARK | R&D/FLEX
16%
$0.55
16%
$0.70
14%
20%
$0.65
$0.50
8%
$0.45
4%
$0.40
0%
$0.35
$0.55
$0.50
6%
$0.45
4%
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
P. 8
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
| COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - OAKLAND
$1.20
40%
$1.05
30%
$0.90
20%
$0.75
10%
$0.60
$0.40
2%
1Q
2012
$1.35
50%
$0.60
8%
12%
12%
10%
60%
$0.35
0%
$0.30
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
0%
$0.45
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
Vacancy Rate
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
Average Asking Rent
9. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL DEFINITIONS
Total Rentable Square Feet:
Direct Vacancy:
Industrial space in buildings with 4,800 SF or greater of industrial space.
Includes speculative as well as owner-occupied buildings. Excludes
buildings that are functionally obsolete in addition to space that is under
construction or renovation.
Space in existing buildings that are vacant and immediately available
during the quarter for direct lease or for sale, plus space that is vacant
but not available for direct lease or sublease (for example, that is being
held for a future commitment).
Total Vacancy:
Net Absorption:
Space in existing buildings that are vacant and immediately available during
the quarter for direct lease, for sublease or for sale, plus space that is vacant
but not available for direct lease or sublease.
Net change in occupied square feet from one period to the next
(includes the impact of change in vacant space available for sublease).
Sales and Leasing Activity:
Weighted Average Asking Rental Rates:
Square feet sold or leased for all known transactions completed during
the quarter. Includes lease renewals and includes investment sale
transactions.
Weighted by square feet available for direct lease. Data is based on
triple net rents, and excludes expenses such as taxes, insurance,
maintenance, janitorial service and utilities. Reported on a monthly
per square foot basis.
Manufacturing:
Warehouse:
Includes buildings designed for the conversion or fabrication of goods.
Buildings range in size from 20,000-250,000 square feet.
Includes buildings of 50,000 square feet and greater with a minimum clear
height of 16 feet. They have multiple dock-high doors and are primarily used
for storage and/or distribution of goods.
High-Cube Warehouse Distribution:
Light Industrial:
A subtype of warehouse buildings, high-cube buildings include buildings
50,000 square feet and greater with a minimum clear height of 26 feet.
Typically the buildings provide dock-high doors at a ratio of one door per
10,000 square feet or more.
Includes buildings in which the space is used primarily for
development, service, production, storage or distribution of goods.
Buildings range in size from 10,000-100,000 square feet.
Under-Construction/Renovation:
R&D Flex:
Includes buildings that are in some phase of construction, beginning
with foundation work and ending with the issuance of a Certificate of
Occupancy. Also includes buildings that are undergoing substantial
renovation.
Includes buildings designed to allow its occupants flexibility of
alternative uses, in a building with multiple tenants, usually in an
industrial park setting. Buildings range in size from 4,800-25,000
square feet.
Average Sales Price:
Incubator:
Calculated using a straight average of actual sales transactions.
Includes buildings designed to allow alternative uses by multiple
tenants who occupy less than 4,000 square feet. Buildings range in
size from 4,800-25,000 square feet.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - OAKLAND |
P. 9
10. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2013 | INDUSTRIAL
NET ABSORPTION
GROSS ABSORPTION
I-80/I-880 CORRIDOR | OVERALL INDUSTRIAL MARKET
I-80/I-880 CORRIDOR | OVERALL INDUSTRIAL MARKET
1,200,000
3,000,000
1,000,000
2,500,000
800,000
2,000,000
600,000
1,500,000
400,000
1,000,000
200,000
500,000
0
0
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2012
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
1400 FACTOR
AVENUE AND 1700
FAIRWAY ROAD,
SAN LEANDRO
KTR Capital Partners
purchased the entire
Simmons Complex a
Class B/C multi-tenant
leased investment in the
fourth quarter of 2013 at
approximately $55 per
square foot.
P. 10
| COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - OAKLAND
