8. Housing Metros Were Coming
Back Strong
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
Private Sector Growth Picking Up
Y/Y, 3MMA, QCEW
U.S. Hardest Hit Housing Metros
These are the 50 worst home price decline metros, per FHFA data.
http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/11/07/hardest-hit-housing-metros/
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
9. But Permit Growth Has
Decelerated Significantly
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
Single Family Housing Permits
Year-over-Year Growth
Housing Metros US ex Housing MSAs
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
10. Housing Stall Impacted Housing
Metros the Most
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Interest Rates Slow Housing's Rebound
Mortgage Rate -->
30 Yr Fixed
<-- Housing Metros
Permit Growth
Differential
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Affordability Slows Housing's Rebound
Housing Affordability-->
NAR Composite Index
<-- Housing Metros
Permit Growth
Differential
11. Slowing Down Employment Too
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13
Private Sector Employment
Seasonally Adjusted, 3 Month Moving Average
Medford CES
Bend CES
16. Price Growth Will Remain
Modest
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1995Q1 1999Q1 2003Q1 2007Q1 2011Q1 2015Q1
Oregon Home Price Index
FHFA, 2000 Average = 100
Home Price Index Inflation Adjusted Home Price Index
Forecast-->
18. Affordability Thresholds in the
Portland Metro Area
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
Household Income
Portland Housing Affordability and Income
Affordable Home Price (lhs) Share of Households (rhs)
20. …but not Among Low-Price
Houses
20
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
through
July
Multnomah County Sales of Homes Under $90K
Condo
Single family
21. Low-End as a Share of Sales
21
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
through
July
Multnomah Co: Sales Below $90K, % share of total
Condos
Single family
22. A Bit Easier to Get a Loan
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Mortgage Lending Standards
Senior Loan Officer Survey
Recession Prime All
Tightening
Loosening
23. Demographics Suggest
Further Shift to Multifamily…
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
2,400,000
2,800,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Oregon Population by Housing Type
CPS, 3 Year Average
Ownership Rental
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Renter Share
1990s Average
24. …but Relatively High Rents
Will Slow that Shift
50
75
100
125
150
175
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Oregon Price to Rent Ratio
2000 = 100
Portland Salem
25. Oregon Metropolitan Area
Rents
25
$0.50
$0.55
$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
Salem Metro Average Rent Per
Square Foot
Average Rent Per Square Foot
Source: Multifamily NW
$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
Eugene/Springfield Metro Average
Rent Per Square Foot
Average Rent Per Square Foot
Source: Multifamily NW
$0.50
$0.55
$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
Bend/Redmond Metro Average
Rent Per Square Foot
Average Rent Per Square Foot
Source: Multifamily NW
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
Portland/Vancouver Metro Average
Rent Per Square Foot
Average Rent Per Square Foot
Source: Multifamily NW
27. Rapid Growth from a Low
Base
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan-14
Oregon Housing Permits (Monthly, SA 3 MMA)
Total Permits
Single Family
30. Permit Recovery Across the
State
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Columbia
Jefferson
Josephine
Curry
Klamath
Crook
Tillamook
Yamhill
Linn
Polk
Deschutes
Marion
Jackson
Coos
Douglas
Lincoln
Umatilla
Lane
Lake
Washington
Benton
Clatsop
Oregon
Multnomah
Baker
Hood River
Clackamas
Union
Harney
Malheur
Morrow
Housing Permits Relative to 2005
2012 Depths of the Great Recession
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Klamath
Josephine
Tillamook
Columbia
Harney
Yamhill
Deschutes
Douglas
Washington
Baker
Umatilla
Union
Oregon
Multnomah
Clackamas
Malheur
Housing Permits Relative to 2005
2013 Depths of the Great Recession
31. We Are Now Under-Building!
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14
Oregon Single Family Housing Permits, SA 3MMA
May '10 - Jan '14 Moved Bubble Building
Bubble Building Single Family
32. 32
For More Information
Standard Contact:
155 Cottage Street NE
Salem, OR 97301
(503) 378-3405
oea.info@state.or.us
www.oregon.gov/das/oea
Social Media:
oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com
@OR_EconAnalysis