Northeast Region Habitat Vulnerability Assessment, Hector Galbraith
1. NORTHEAST REGION HABITATNORTHEAST REGION HABITAT
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Hector GalbraithHector Galbraith
National Wildlife FederationNational Wildlife Federation
2. NORTHEASTERN REGIONAL VA – SCALENORTHEASTERN REGIONAL VA – SCALE
AND OBJECTIVESAND OBJECTIVES
13 states and DC13 states and DC
260,000 miles260,000 miles22
map variation in habitatmap variation in habitat
vulnerabilities across regionvulnerabilities across region
provide states with regionalprovide states with regional
context for conservationcontext for conservation
decisionsdecisions
Identify adaptation optionsIdentify adaptation options
Build capacities within stateBuild capacities within state
agenciesagencies
3. NEAFWA REGIONAL VA -NEAFWA REGIONAL VA -
PROCESSPROCESS
1.1. Convene expert panel of state,Convene expert panel of state,
federal, NGO personnelfederal, NGO personnel
2.2. Develop predictive habitatDevelop predictive habitat
vulnerability modelvulnerability model
3.3. Test model and modifyTest model and modify
4.4. Form habitat expert workgroupsForm habitat expert workgroups
5.5. Select habitats for analysesSelect habitats for analyses
6.6. Run model on habitatsRun model on habitats
4. 1. Vulnerability to
climate change
Index
2. Vulnerability to
non-climate stressors
Index
3. Interactions
4. Overall future
vulnerability
Index
5. Confidence
evaluation
6. Narratives
THE NEAFWA HABITAT VULNERABILITY MODEL
5. HABITATS SELECTED FOR ANALYSISHABITATS SELECTED FOR ANALYSIS
Alpine tundraAlpine tundra
Northern hardwood forestNorthern hardwood forest
Southern/central oak forestsSouthern/central oak forests
Pitch pine barrensPitch pine barrens
Boreal bogsBoreal bogs
Southern spruce fir forestSouthern spruce fir forest
Shrub swampShrub swamp
Emergent marshEmergent marsh
Montane spruce fir forestMontane spruce fir forest
7. Habitat Vulnerability Rankings in Latitudinal Zones
Zone I Zone II Zone III Zone IV
Acadian-Appalachian Alpine
Tundra
Highly
Vulnerable
Acadian-Appalachian Montane
Spruce-Fir Forest
Vulnerable Critically
Vulnerable
Laurentian-Acadian Northern
Hardwood Forest
Less
Vulnerable
Vulnerable Vulnerable Critically
Vulnerable
Central Mixed Oak-Pine Forests Least
Vulnerable
Least
Vulnerable
Less
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Pitch Pine Barrens Less
Vulnerable
Less
Vulnerable
Less
Vulnerable
Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain
Basin Peat Swamp
Less
Vulnerable
Less
Vulnerable
Less
Vulnerable
Central and Southern Appalachian
Spruce-Fir Forest
Critically
Vulnerable
Boreal-Laurentian Bog Highly
Vulnerable
Highly
Vulnerable
Shrub Swamp Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
Emergent Marsh Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
8. CLIMATE-SCHLIMATE!CLIMATE-SCHLIMATE!
Some habitats likely to be mostSome habitats likely to be most
vulnerable to non-climate stressors:vulnerable to non-climate stressors:
– Pitch pine scrub oak forestsPitch pine scrub oak forests
– Atlantic white cedar forestsAtlantic white cedar forests
10. REPORTS ON NEAFWAREPORTS ON NEAFWA
WEBSITEWEBSITE
1.1. Projected climate change in NortheastProjected climate change in Northeast
2.2. Building the NEAFWA habitat modelBuilding the NEAFWA habitat model
3.3. Coastal ecological system vulnerabilitiesCoastal ecological system vulnerabilities
4.4. Cold water fish habitat vulnerabilitiesCold water fish habitat vulnerabilities
5.5. 17 upland and wetland habitat17 upland and wetland habitat
vulnerabilitiesvulnerabilities
6.6. Habitat vulnerabilities in NY StateHabitat vulnerabilities in NY State
11. NEXT STEPSNEXT STEPS
Modify model for use at smallerModify model for use at smaller
scalesscales
Develop rapid assessment processDevelop rapid assessment process
Make available and provide trainingMake available and provide training
for land trusts, municipalities,for land trusts, municipalities,
smaller conservation organizationssmaller conservation organizations