The slides of my latest speech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hNi-7EjsH4#t=3580
were a bit washed out. I upload them here if anyone wanted to see clearer details.
5. OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
– Money/economics
– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do?
– What am I doing
– What can you be doing?
– What can Minnesota be doing?
16. Wait son. There are plenty
of energy and resources and
they get cheaper over time.
More money and more
technology will access all the
energy we need.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23. Yes but the US is going to be
the new Saudi Arabia. Bakken
Shale, etc – we literally have
hundreds of years of fossil
fuels in the ground.
28. OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
–Money/finance
– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do?
– What am I doing
– What can you be doing?
– What can Minnesota be doing?
29.
30.
31.
32. Excuse me sir. Economics
textbooks clearly state
that banks only act as
intermediaries…
35. 35 How many GDP$ for each $ of new debt?
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
GDPgrowthper$ofnewnon-financialdebt(nominal)
U.S. sustainability of new debt (3-year moving average)
actual debt sustainability minimum
minimum requirement for long term sustainable credit growth
Private and public sector debt growth (without financial sector) Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, BEA, IIER calculations
Debt sustainability acts as a measure of the long-term viability of debt and
compares economic growth vs. non-financial credit volume growth
China
Brazil, India
Europe
39. OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
– Money/economics
–Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do?
– What am I doing
– What can you be doing?
– What can Minnesota be doing?
40.
41.
42.
43. BEHAVIOR IS BEST UNDERSTOOD THROUGH THE LENS OF EVOLUTION
FROM MACLEAN: THE TRIUNE BRAIN
HOMO SAPIENS
EVOLVED AMIDST
SCARCITY
Graphic Credit: Dr. Peter Whybrow – UCLA – Author of “American Mania”
44. Optimally, our brain regions work in
concert. But the older the brain part,
the more potential it has to trump our
behaviour
58. IS BIGGER BETTER?
• Would you prefer a 4,000
sq ft house in a
neighborhood of 6,000 sq
ft houses?
• Or would you prefer a
3,000 sq ft house in a
neighborhood of 2,000 sq
ft houses?
• (Prof Robert Frank)
70. The whole problem with the world is
that fools and fanatics are always so
certain of themselves, and
wiser people so full of doubts.
--- Bertrand Russell
71.
72.
73.
74. Homo oecinomicus is self-
interested and super-
rational. Otherwise micro-
economics wouldn’t make
sense.
85. “What took place in the early 1500s was truly exceptional, something
that had never happened before and never will again. Two cultural
experiments, running in isolation for 15,000 years or more, at last
came face to face. Amazingly, after all that time, each could recognize
the other’s institutions. When Cortés landed in Mexico he found roads,
canals, cities, palaces, schools, law courts, markets, irrigation works,
kings, priests, temples, peasants, artisans, armies, astronomers,
merchants, sports, theatre, art, music, and books. High civilization,
differing in detail but alike in essentials, had evolved independently on
both sides of the earth.”
Ronald Wright, A Short History of Progress (2004, 50-51)
89. "Selfishness beats altruism within groups. Altruistic groups
beat selfish groups. Everything else is commentary.“
D.S. Wilson and E.O. Wilson
90. 1. We value the present disproportionately more than the
future via steep discount rates.
2. We easily become distracted by and habituated to
readily available novelty.
3. Via natural selection, we are programmed to compete
for RELATIVE status (and resources) by whatever metric
our current environment dictates.
4. Cognitive biases. –Our brains are like swiss army knives
5. We are not sentient or sapient in aggregate but
follow the momentum of the ‘hive’.
DEMAND OVERVIEW
94. OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
– Money/finance
– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do?
– What am I doing
– What can you be doing?
– What can Minnesota be doing?
96. Credit: Adapted from Richard Feely (NOAA), Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends) and Ralph
Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (scrippsco2.ucsd.edu)
97.
98. Source: Stuart Staniford: EarlyWarn
“A central finding of WGIII is that growth of income has been
the largest single driver of emissions.”
Victor, Science July 2014.
99.
100. US Going it alone?
Kintisch – Science July 2014
124. Australia could slash its carbon emissions
to zero by 2050 and still experience
average economic growth of 2.4% a year,
according to a UN-backed study.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/10/zero-
carbon
Natural gas claimed as a bridge
to clean energy future
Neonicotinoids blamed for colony
collapse disorder.
Etc.
137. 1) Money is marker for energy
1) For most people growth is already over.
3) No shortage of energy but longage of expectations.
4) Biology determines what we need, culture determines how
we get it.
5) A lower consumption, more local and regional future.
6) What sort of a future do we want? What are we willing to
give up?
7) On some key risks ‘seeing a smoking gun’ will be too late
Conclusions
138. OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
– Money/finance
– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do?
– What am I doing
– What can you be doing?
– What can Minnesota be doing?
159. "Biological Basis of the Stress Response" by James P. Henry, Integrative Physiological and
Behavioral Science, January-March, 1992, volume 27, Number 1, pages 66-83
162. What to Do?
Embrace Life
Assert control
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
163.
164.
165. What to Do?
Embrace Life
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
166.
167. What to Do?
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
168.
169.
170. What to Do?
Know thy reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
176. What to Do?
Know your reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
179. What to Do?
Know your reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Think/act in terms of real capital
Personally Divest
Take back language
180.
181. What to Do?
Know your reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Choose your tribe
Think/act in terms of real capital
Personally Divest
Take back language
182.
183. Sociopaths driving train – all we can do is find a car w the right people we want to travel with
184. What to Do?
Know your reptile
Be Prosocial
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Choose your tribe
Think/act in terms of real capital
Personally Divest
Take back language
185.
186. What to Do?
Know your reptile
Be Prosocial
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Like yourself
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Choose your tribe
Think/act in terms of real capital
Personally Divest
Take back language
187.
188.
189.
190.
191.
192.
193. Dear Myself,
I don’t know when or where or
how I will have to act, but I will
not accept dead oceans and
ecosystems,
etc……………………………………………
………………………………………………
………………..When the moment
comes, count me in.
Sincerely