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n-tech Research Note
Smart Coatings Markets: An Emerging
Opportunity
Issue date: June 2015
n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058
Phone: 804-938-0030
Email: info@ntechresearch.com
n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058
Phone: 804-938-0030
Email: info@ntechresearch.com
Web: www.ntechresearch.com
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n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058
Phone: 804-938-0030
About n-tech Research
n-tech Research is the industry’s leading source of market analysis and forecasting for
the smart materials space. Our Smart Materials research program addresses the key
smart materials markets, focusing on material functionalities and their application to
various vertical markets and product solutions. We supply information and analysis to
the smart materials sector through both reports and custom consulting.
Founded in 2004 as NanoMarkets, our firm has been involved with researching
nanomaterials, thin-film, printed and organic electronics, conductive materials (inks and
coatings) and smart coatings and materials related markets and applications.
Please visit us on the web at www.ntechresearch.com of contact our offices at (804) 938-
0030 or sales@ntechresearch.com to arrange a discussion on how our program can
benefit your organization.
n-tech Report Program
Our reports examine the commercial opportunities brought about by advances in
material science and the increasing functionality and performance that “intelligent”
materials make possible through applications in energy, electronics, medicine,
construction and other industries:
 n-tech’s reports identify current and future market opportunities. n-tech’s
comprehensive analysis reflects today’s smart materials realities and tomorrow’s
profitable possibilities. Our reports provide marketing and business development
executives with guidance on developing business models fine-tuned to the
emerging smart materials market. And they are candid assessments of the market;
not just data dumps from the Internet.
 Our reports complement internal product planning and technology road
mapping. They can provide low-cost knowledge enhancement for firms at every
level of the smart materials supply chain. They can also serve to validate internal
smart materials market strategies or to provide a third-party assessment of the
prospects for outside investors.
n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058
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n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058
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 All n-tech reports include detailed revenue and volume forecasts based on tried
and tested methodologies that have been used by n-tech and associated
companies going back three decades. Our forecasts are both believable and
provide clients with a deep insight into where the money will be made and lost in
the smart materials space over the next eight years.
 n-tech reports can be purchased individually or as a subscription.
Current Reports:
 Electrochromic Glass and Film Markets 2014-2021
 Smart Coatings Markets 2015-2022
 Smart Surfaces Markets 2015-2022
 Smart Mirrors Technologies and Markets 2015-2022
 Markets for Self-Healing Materials 2015-2022
 Smart Window Materials and Films Markets 2015-2022
Upcoming:
 Shape Memory Materials Markets
 Color Shifting Materials Markets
 Multi-Functional Materials and Coatings Markets
 Self-Assembling Materials Markets
 Self-Cleaning Materials Markets
 Antimicrobial Materials and Coatings Markets
 Anticorrosive Materials and Coatings Markets
 Smart Windows Markets
 Sensor Embedded Coatings and Materials Markets
 Metamaterials
www.ntechresearch.com/market_reports
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n-tech Custom Consulting
While reports are our core deliverable, n-tech also carries out custom consulting
assignments when our clients need more detailed assessments of markets and
companies:
 Market sizing and segmentation
 Product and market validation
 Messaging
 Investment support
 Due diligence
Research Team
Lawrence Gasman is the Principal Analyst at n-tech Research and one of its co-
founders. Mr. Gasman has 35 years' experience of analyzing the commercialization
potential of complex technologies and currently manages all of n-tech’s industry
research. For more than a decade Mr. Gasman has focused his interests on identifying
the business opportunities in advanced materials and manufacturing and contributes
much of the analysis for n-tech’s core research work on smart materials and surfaces. He
is also an acknowledged expert on forecasting for high-technology markets in a broad
range of industries.
Mr. Gasman's consulting clients have included multinationals, start-ups and investors and
he has advised them on new product introduction, market positioning and strategy, and
sales potential. He has also provided due diligence on mergers and acquisitions for his
financial clients and serves on the technology advisory board of a major specialty
chemicals firm. He was educated at Manchester University, with advanced degrees from
the London School of Economics and London Business School.
Tarun Vemulkar is a technology analyst at n-tech Research. Tarun has a background in
materials-related research, process development, and engineering, with hands-on
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n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058
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experience researching nanomaterials, and the industrial manufacture of DRAM and
NAND memory at a leading company in the semiconductor industry.
Vemulkar’s academic background is as a materials scientist. He holds a Bachelor's and a
Master's in Science and Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania. He has
published research on novel semiconductor nanomaterials and their application in real
world devices. At n-tech he has issued reports on new electrode materials for lithium ion
batteries and oxide thin-film transistors and is currently working on his next report on
shape memory materials.
James Montgomery is a market analyst for n-tech research having extensive experience
in covering clean tech and electronics and related materials markets during his time with
the firm. Since 2003 he has covered various business and technology markets, delivering
a wide range of content to broad B2B/B2C audiences in renewable energy, industrial
lasers, and semiconductor manufacturing. He has produced content from daily news to
C-level executive interviews, magazine features, blogs, and video coverage.
Prior to coming to n-tech he was associate editor at RenewableEnergyWorld.com,
reporting on trends in solar and wind technologies, policies, and finance. Prior to that
he focused on the market for industrial lasers used in manufacturing for Industrial Laser
Solutions, and for nearly 10 years he covered semiconductor manufacturing trends and
technologies for Solid State Technology.
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Table of Contents
1 Technology Evolving: The Business Impact of the New Smart Coatings ............. 6
1.1 It’s Not the Smartness ......................................................................... 7
1.2 The Next Big Thing? ............................................................................ 7
1.3 Self-Healing, Self-Assembling and Self-Cleaning Coatings: The
Nanotechnologists’ Dream Fulfilled .............................................................. 8
1.4 Smart Coatings for Smart Glass and Color-Shifting ................................. 10
1.5 Other Coatings and Future Coatings ..................................................... 10
2 The Next Markets for Smart Coatings......................................................... 11
2.1 The Future of Smart Coatings is in Electronics........................................ 11
2.2 What’s Left for Smart Coatings in the Energy and Construction Sector ....... 12
2.3 Military and Healthcare: Standing Outside the Fray................................ 14
2.4 Smart Coatings in the Automotive and Transportation Sector ................... 15
3 Effective Competition in the Smart Coatings Space ...................................... 16
3.1 Smart Coatings Compete With Sensors and Smart Surfaces ..................... 16
3.2 The Supply Chain versus the Innovation Chain....................................... 16
3.3 Barriers to Growth in the Smart Coatings Market.................................... 18
4 Summary of Eight-Year Smart Coatings Market Forecasts ............................. 18
List of Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Levels of Intelligence in Smart Coatings ............................................. 6
Exhibit 2: Eight-Year Revenue Forecast for Smart Coatings ($ Millions)............... 19
Exhibit 3: Total Smart Coatings Market, 2015-2022 ......................................... 19
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1 Technology Evolving: The Business Impact of the New Smart Coatings
Over the years, smart coatings have been tacitly defined as the most functional of
functional coatings. Of course, functionality of coatings and other materials has changed.
A coating that might have been thought of as smart in the past is not considered as such
now. Over time, one generation of “smart coatings” becomes merely “functional,” and a
new generation of coatings takes over in the “smart coatings” category.
n-tech Research believes that this is what is happening right now. What we are seeing is
that smart coatings are about to take a great leap forward in “intelligence” that will lead to
new smart coating products and product classes. In turn, this represents new
opportunities for materials firms (including substrate firms), coatings machine makers and
even OEMs. In Exhibit 1, we show how we think smart coatings will evolve over time with
regard to intelligence.
Exhibit 1: Levels of Intelligence in Smart Coatings
Intelligence Level Functionality Examples
Standard (dumb) functional
coatings
One simple function with no
response to outside stimuli
Indium tin oxide (ITO)
Anti-scratch coatings
Non-autonomic smart coatings
Responds to outside stimuli, but
needs some human intervention
to trigger “smartness”
Self-cleaning ovens
Reversible polymers
Autonomic smart coatings
Completely automatic smart
response to outside stimulus
Capillary-based self-cleaning
materials
Shape memory materials
Multifunctional smart coatings
Offers multiple smart features –
typically the result of multiple
coating layers
Not many real world examples as
yet. However, self-dimming
glass, which is also self-cleaning
and has PV capabilities is where
we are headed.
Many relevant R&D programs now appear to be reaching a point where they are just a
year or two away from leading to viable commercial products with a level of intelligence
that has not seen before.
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1.1 It’s Not the Smartness
From a market perspective, of course it is not intelligence/smartness that sells. Rather,
the point is that smartness of coatings is now reaching a point where they are going to be
much more useful than ever before and much longer lived, which opens up new
addressable markets.
These addressable markets are already served by functional coatings of various kinds.
These coatings are products that are adequate in many ways but have always fallen short
in important ways. Anti-scratch coatings, for example, can do a good job in warding off
scratches. But when scratches do occur, they are there for good. Anti-scratch coatings
cannot heal them, but self-healing coatings can. Both automotive and building windows
have been tinted for decades. But they stay tinted when the sun goes in, while self-tinting
windows adjust to sunlight.
Based on this, n-tech sees smart coatings in similar terms to another kind of coating that
we have previously covered in depth; transparent conductors. In this market, ITO has
served for many years, but has begun to see growing penetration by nano-engineered
alternatives with better mechanical and cost properties.
The replacement trend is slow. But it has been more than enough to lead to the creation
of significant new business opportunities, not to mention a slew of new start-ups and
projects at larger materials/specialty chem firms.
1.2 The Next Big Thing?
All of this suggests to n-tech that smart coatings (and smart materials more generally) will
be a substantial business opportunity going forward and we think that we expect to see
large firms make substantial investments in this area; some have already. These firms
will include not just coatings firms, but also the large glass firms, and other firms higher
up the supply chain.
Already smart coatings is a vibrant enough topic to have spawned dozens of R&D projects
all over the world, not to mention as several conferences. In the near future we think that
smart coatings will
 Create protectable intellectual property (IP)
 Avoid commoditization of coatings products
 Lead to a stream of new products over a sustained period of time.
These trends will have important consequences. The trend towards a better IP
environment will, n-tech Research believes, attract new attention for the smart coatings
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business from venture and angel capitalists. This is important in a sector of the coatings
business that has often seemed characterized by small struggling companies with
mediocre supply chains.
The other two factors listed above suggest that players in the smart coatings space can
expect healthy margins that should be sustainable over a lengthy period and reasons why
large specialty chemicals firms should be taking a serious look at the smart coatings
space right now.
The development of smart coatings has been held back by the inability to create very high
performance coatings with a low-temperature process. However, printing technology has
a unique ability to provide complex texturing of surfaces, which fits well with the smart
coatings goal. In another development related to the manufacture of smart coatings,
several firms have been working on the LbL approach to develop cost-effective, uniform-
quality coatings.
1.3 Self-Healing, Self-Assembling and Self-Cleaning Coatings: The
Nanotechnologists’ Dream Fulfilled
Self-healing, self-assembling and self-cleaning coatings are especially important in this
context and they fit particularly well into the trends mentioned above. In particular, the
obvious usefulness of these products in so many applications areas mean that they will
generate major revenues if they can prove out technologically.
Although coatings in each of these three categories have been available for some time,
they are, we think, about to reach lifetimes and performance levels that they have not
attained before. The latest generation of self-healing, self-assembling and self-cleaning
coatings will all address large markets and have an attractive technology pipeline with a
low chance of commoditization.
Self-healing, self-assembling and self-cleaning are precisely the functionalities that the
early R&D in nanotechnology was supposed to lead to, but never quite did.
Self-healing coatings: The big technological leap forward that n-tech expects in the area
of self-healing coatings is an improvement in terms of the type and size of damage that
they can self-heal.
While we are not buying the hype on smart coatings someday being able to repair major
damage to an aircraft fuselage, there is plenty of room for improvement in today’s “self-
healing” coatings, which are often little more than anti-scratch coatings. However,
competition in this space will not be just on what size of hole a coating can repair, but also
on (1) how long the repair takes—some self-healing coatings today can take many hours
and (2) the longevity of the coatings.
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Self-assembling coatings: Self-assembling coatings can already demonstrate some
impressive advantages and n-tech Research believes these will only increase as new
generations of self-assembling coatings come onto the market.
In particular, we think that advanced self-assembling coatings can provide reduction in
the cost and ease of manufacturing processes. For example, self-stratifying coatings can
already provide a way to eliminate the need for multiple coats. But it seems likely that as
self-assembling coatings—and self-assembling materials more generally—evolve they will
become an important part of advanced manufacturing techniques.
Self-cleaning coatings: Self-cleaning ovens are ubiquitous, but other self-cleaning
coatings and self-cleaning surface opportunities have yet to be exploited because of the
absence of suitable coatings, especially coatings with an adequate lifetime. For example,
self-cleaning windows have been available on the market since 2001, but they tend not
to last long, which is the reason they have never made it out of the single-family residential
sector
An incentive for developing such coatings is obviously that they provide low maintenance,
reduced cleaning time, and reduced cost. To best exploit these opportunities, new
hydrophilic, hydrophobic, oleophobic, amphiphobic and multifunctional coatings are being
developed. Some of the technological trends that n-tech sees as having reasonable
potential in the area of self-cleaning coatings are (1) nano-technological approaches to
textured hydrophobic surfaces and (2) “super-hydrophobic coatings.”
Hydrophilic surfaces are not as widely used as hydrophobic surfaces for self-cleaning
coatings. These coatings typically use a photo-catalysis process with TiO2 as the main
material. But there remain many challenges that need to be overcome by nanocrystalline
TiO2, especially its robustness and optical transparency in glazing industries. A number
of other approaches are under investigation, such as doping. There have also been
various attempts to add materials to TiO2. And hydrophilic coatings are effective but have
their limitations; inorganic dirt is not removed.
Although not exactly self-cleaning, coatings that provide anti-fouling and antimicrobial
functionality are closely related. In the anti-fouling sector, we are seeing opportunities for
moving away from the traditional copper-based materials, and metallic materials more
generally.
Biocide-free anti-fouling coating solutions are also being investigated, as are layered
polymer anti-fouling coatings. “Smart” antimicrobials have tended to mean just that there
is a time-release mechanism built in. However, we are seeing a shift towards the use of
self-assembly and hydrophilic technology for smart antimicrobial coatings.
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1.4 Smart Coatings for Smart Glass and Color-Shifting
Self-dimming glass is often celebrated as one of the successes of smart coatings.
Electrochromic (EC) automotive mirrors are already a billion dollar business. Self-
dimming windows are a solid, albeit niche business. And while there are several ways to
make smart windows aside from electrochromic coatings, we do not consider them
significant alternatives to EC at the present time:
 Photochromic materials currently are not seen as much of a challenge to
electrochromic windows. However, hybrid photochromic/electrochromic windows
such as those produced by SWITCH Materials have commercial potential.
 Meanwhile, the business opportunities for SPD smart windows are limited by the
fact that SPD technology is controlled by Research Frontiers.
 Most people also do not see thermochromic windows as much of a threat to the
dominant electrochromic technology because this type of smart glass remains
somewhat tinted at all times. Something similar can be said about PDLC
technology.
Color-shifting coatings: Somewhat related to self-dimming coatings are color-shifting
coatings; both change the shade of the substrate onto which they are coated and they
use related technologies, but have different applications. Color-shifting coatings are used
on vehicles, buildings, and packaging to help consumers avoid counterfeit drugs and
other fake merchandise.
The color changing paint that appears to have the biggest mindshare at the present time
is Valspar’s Kameleon paint. Here, the color effect is due to the use of mica particles in
the paint. But other color-shifting technologies include thermochromic and photochromic
paints.
Many of these color-shifting paints are high cost and the final effect can be somewhat
uncertain. So there is room for improvement here. However, unlike the other smart
coatings opportunities we have reviewed in this Executive Summary, the addressable
market for color-shifting coatings seems somewhat constrained.
1.5 Other Coatings and Future Coatings
Color-shifting coatings are by no means the only smart coatings that are not “megatrends”
in the way that (say) self-healing coatings are. There are other segments of the smart
coatings market that represent apparently smaller opportunities either because the
addressable markets are limited or because the technology development work that still
remains to be done is at a relatively early stage.
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Smart coatings for corrosion/wear resistance: There is a significant opportunity in this
area to develop new kinds of coatings that avoid the chromium VI that has commonly
been used in these coatings. Approaches that are based on pH changes seem to be
especially popular and here the changes may be detected either using fluorescent
molecules, quantum dots or by some other method.
Pressure sensitive smart coatings: Pressure-responsive paints (PSP) are used for
carrying out aerodynamic testing in wind tunnels, where the PSPs serve to measure the
airflow. This application is common to both the automotive and aerospace industry.
Scientists at Pennsylvania State University have, however, developed a luminescent
pressure-sensitive coating that is claimed to be better than PSPs. So this suggests that
there may be opportunities for pressure-sensitive smart coatings beyond the more
conventional PSPs.
Future smart coatings: n-tech Research believes that the immediate opportunities for
smart coatings lay mostly in market-expanding improvements of existing materials.
However, there are also a few instances of entirely novel materials platforms being used
for new kinds of smart coatings but largely longer-term opportunities. One example of
what we are talking about would be the use of metamaterials in smart optical coatings.
Another is the small research program designed to create new kinds of self-healing
products.
Particularly exciting are multilayer coatings, which n-tech Research sees as an important
commercialization direction since it is the simplest way to develop coatings that are
multifunctional.
As an example of truly smart coatings, one might imagine in the future, a smart coating
that provides photovoltaic energy generation with inherent self-repair and self-cleaning
capabilities. Whatever the functionality of multilayer coatings, cost will be a factor holding
back the development and use of these sophisticated smart coatings.
2 The Next Markets for Smart Coatings
2.1 The Future of Smart Coatings is in Electronics
n-tech Research is a strong believer in the commercial potential for smart electronics
coatings which ties into the emergence of IoT and continued growth in mobile and
wearable electronics.
Smart coatings and the IoT: The idea behind the IoT is that—using embedded sensors and
processors—buildings, appliances, machines and objects will become more responsive to
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human needs in both personal and professional environments and provide increased
functionality and enhanced data collection capabilities:
 While smart materials are not being prominently mentioned in current IoT literature,
n-tech sees a perfect fit.
 Self-cleaning and self-repairing coatings that clean and repair themselves either
automatically or in response to external cues?
 Sensors embedded into coatings and surfaces the collect data and react as
needed?
 Or, a smart coating functions as sensor that serves as a more cost effective way
to create a wide-area sensing panel than a large array of sensing devices?
The possibilities in this regard are significant.
Prospects for self-cleaning coatings in the smartphone and tablet market: n-tech
Research believes that protective smart coatings for smartphones and other mobile
devices will be commercially significant. These will protect devices from yellowing, and
chemical effects, as well as the buildup of dirt, microbes and smudges.
The recent unsuccessful attempt by Apple to coat phones with sapphire at least
demonstrates how important this kind of coating might be eventually and the markets that
are opening up for protective coatings in this space.
Self-healing coatings are also a class of smart coatings that will generate revenues in the
electronics sector. Waterborne polyurethane dispersions have already been shown to
conveniently realign themselves to fill in scratches. We also expect that there is a niche
market here for smart antimicrobials.
In any case, the smartphone/tablet market is so huge—about two billion units shipped
annually—that it seems inevitable that smart coatings makers will be incentivized to design
coatings especially for this market segment.
2.2 What’s Left for Smart Coatings in the Energy and Construction Sector
Much of the market emphasis in the smart coatings space during the past decade has
been on the building products sector with green initiatives being an important driver.
Prospects for smart coatings in an era of green building decline: However in 2015, the
decline in oil prices has not only taken the steam out the energy efficiency story but
threatens to curb the resurgent green building sector where self-healing and self-cleaning
coatings seemed to have viable applications.
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At the same time much of the on-going availability of incentives provided for green building
remain uncertain and this may mean that providing a special focus on this sector such as
the use self-cleaning coatings for solar panels no longer makes much sense. And while
we can point to Japan, where solar is having something of a revival at the moment, the
overall sector seems less certain of a smart coatings bet.
All this raises the issue of how smart coatings firms will reposition their product ranges in
the near future to minimize the growing business risks associated with green building.
Self-dimming coatings for windows will have to be repositioned so that the story around
them is about aesthetics and mood lighting and perhaps less on energy savings as the
basis for the story. Also, n-tech Research is seeing a lot of activity in the self-healing
concrete sector, which is in no way dependent on energy prices.
We believe that active smart coatings will remain restricted to new construction activities,
because retrofitting applications will remain prohibitively expensive for the majority of
consumers.
Smart coatings and the new energy sector: n-tech Research believes that market
opportunities for smart coatings are going to be more limited in the oil and gas sector,
compared to how we saw things turning out in our previous smart coatings market
analyses.
In particular, we expect that the smart protective coatings that in the past have been sold
to gas and oil firms looking for new wells and deposits to see a decline as many shale oil
firms have radically cut back on their capital expenditures, for example.
Also seeing slower growth in the near future will be the self-cleaning coatings that started
to be used on solar panels in the last few years. Such coatings can be very effective in
the wind sector. For example research has shown that airborne sand and rain reduce the
energy output of wind turbines by up to 20 percent.
However, n-tech Research does not believe that the decline in the energy sector is forever
and once energy prices start trending upward in some sustainable way we expect the
market for energy-related smart coatings to revive.
In the meantime, R&D into new energy technologies continues and smart coatings may
find a role there—in the development of fuel cells, for example. In addition, smart coatings
are being developed for use as oil-filtering materials that can completely separate oil and
water in an economical manner. And given the regulatory support for eco-friendly oil spill
removal solutions, new products based on smart coatings are still likely to be
commercially popular.
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2.3 Military and Healthcare: Standing Outside the Fray
While much of the market activity in the smart coatings space may well be characterized
by a shift from “green” to electronics, n-tech Research believes that there are still plenty
of opportunities for smart coatings in military and healthcare sectors. Some of the most
attractive include the ones reviewed below.
Worldwide, the U.S. military is both the leading supporter of research on smart coatings
and the largest military end user of smart coating technology. The majority of research
projects in this space are undertaken directly by the U.S. military or jointly with other
research institutes, sometimes through funding and sometimes through collaboration.
Smart antimicrobial coatings is already established: Smart coatings for use as
antimicrobial agents are extending beyond medical uses to the food, textile, and
residential segments. As a result, n-tech Research sees the addressable market for smart
anti-microbial coatings, which is in some ways already established, as growing.
Need of innovative drug delivery agents: The majority of smart coatings that are meant to
trigger automatic drug release based on an external stimuli are still in the research phase
and there is uncertainty over the commercial release of such advanced drug delivery
systems in the immediate future. Since such coatings will have to pass through many
more tests than other types of smart coatings, there is also additional business risk in this
market segment.
That said, there are some interesting developments in this space and new coatings of this
type can plug into the demand from aging populations in the developed countries. Among
the developments we see in this area that appear to meet a real need are bio-adhesive
coatings that offer controlled drug release for the prevention of drug overdoses in critical
situations.
Anti-corrosion coatings demand in the military: The military seems likely to continue to
be an attractive market (and funding source) for smart coatings. As n-tech Research sees
it, the military is especially interested in anti-corrosion coatings.
What stands out in this regard are new smart coatings designed to protect galvanized
steel and aluminum surfaces. In this context, we anticipate that military markets will be
examining closely the ability of such smart coatings to extend the service life, reduce
operational costs, and improve the chemical resistance of metal structures relevant to
military applications. This will lead to the adoption of these materials for other related
military applications in the medium term.
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The active involvement of the U.S. Navy's Office of Naval Research (ONR) in the
development of anti-fouling solutions through the “Antifouling/Fouling Release Coatings
Program” leads n-tech Research to believe that more innovative commercial solutions,
including non-metallic and biocide-free coatings, will be commercialized in the near to
medium term of the forecasting period of this report.
Smart coatings for camouflage: The development of a smart coating with a self-signaling
feature that can effectively camouflage military personnel and equipment, such as tanks,
helicopters, and trucks has been proposed. Another possibility is the use of natural
materials such as reflectin—a protein used by squid to change color and reflect light—to
provide infrared invisibility.
2.4 Smart Coatings in the Automotive and Transportation Sector
Smart coatings provide numerous benefits for the automotive and transportation industry,
such as improved asset life, limited corrosion damage, and reduced maintenance and
overall cost of ownership. These benefits extend across all of the major verticals in this
sector, including land vehicles, aircraft, trains, and marine vessels.
Self-dimming and self-healing coatings likely to drive demand: Self-dimming windows and
self-cleaning windows are already used in the transportation sector. However, as
previously noted, these smart coatings will have to improve in terms of performance in
order to gain market share. In addition, again as noted, the marketing story around self-
dimming glass will have to rely less upon energy savings.
Eco-friendly anti-fouling coatings in demand in the marine industry: Apart from energy
conservation via self-dimming window coating solutions, anti-fouling coating solutions
have long been in demand from the global marine industry. In order to address the
growing concern over biofouling, anti-fouling coatings, new smart anti-fouling coatings are
being developed.
Corrosion-sensing and de-icing coatings to gain prominence in the airline industry:
Corrosion of aircraft parts and disintegration of the protective paint are some of the key
areas of concern for the airline industry.
Currently, research is being undertaken to develop optical fiber sensors with fluorescent
coatings that can indicate paint degradation and prevent microbiologically influenced
corrosion (MIC). Experimentation is also in progress with polymer coatings that have the
potential to prevent metal corrosion by forming a barrier to water and oxygen.
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De-icing is a second major issue for the industry, and leading airlines and research
institutes are jointly developing novel coatings that can lead to frost-free aircraft body
surfaces.
Self-stratifying coatings in the automotive sector: Labor and material costs involved in the
application of a second coating on automobiles has been an issue in the industry for some
time. As a result, self-stratifying coatings that are able to form multilayer films from a single
coating system are gaining prominence in the automobile industry.
Other ongoing smart coating developments: A number of additional smart coatings
developments are taking place in the transportation sector. A few prominent examples
include:
 Coatings that improve the effectiveness of braking and suspension systems in the
transportation segment.
 Smart coatings with embedded sensors for tires that signal the driver when the
tires begin to lose traction.
 Smart lubricant coatings that can either enhance the performance and
effectiveness of automotive oils or eliminate the use of automotive oils entirely.
3 Effective Competition in the Smart Coatings Space
3.1 Smart Coatings Compete With Sensors and Smart Surfaces
Competition in the smart coatings space occurs at different levels. Smart coatings
themselves must compete with electronic or electrochemical sensors which can now be
miniaturized to a point where they can—under some circumstances—make cost effective
competitors to smart coatings.
And smart coatings have an even closer competitor in the form of smart surfaces, which
can achieve many of the same effects as smart coatings, but through nano-patterning
surfaces. Smart surfaces are only beginning to be commercialized and smart coatings
have a head start. But increasingly all the market sectors in which smart coatings play
will see penetration from smart surfaces, too.
3.2 The Supply Chain versus the Innovation Chain
There are several large specialty chemical companies that seem well positioned to supply
smart coatings into the market in that they already supply one or two “semi-smart”
coatings. 3M for example, offers scratch resistant and protection coatings for a wide
variety of applications, Dow Corning provides its 2634 coating based on alkoxysilane
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functional perfluoropolyether (PFPE) hybrid polymers that form a transparent and durable
thin film on the top of touch screens. And so on.
But we have yet to see any of the giant specialty chemical firms really focusing on smart
coatings. This would mean that either, (1) one of these firms would start to dominate a
significantly sized segment of the smart coatings business or (2) that such a firm would
establish a sizeable group that specializes in smart coatings.
Which large specialty chemical firms are likely to take this direction is hard to say. n-tech
Research has noted before that AkzoNobel is dedicated to exploring all possible new
business avenues in the coatings domain and is developing novel, copper-free anti-
fouling coatings and self-stratifying coatings, so this is perhaps one company to watch.
But this is just one company and we believe that there will be a few surprises with regard
to who does and who doesn’t enter the smart coatings markets.
It is possible—indeed likely—that some large firms will devote significant amounts of
resources to smart coatings, but will limit their activities to certain market segments that
fit with the central business objectives and product ranges. For example, some of the
large glass firms—such as Corning and Saint-Gobain—are already major factors in self-
dimming glass. And it would be no surprise to see DuPont build a smart coatings strategy
around one of its major flagship products, such as Teflon.
Given the overall lack of commitment to smart coatings as a class of materials, we see
investment in or acquisitions of innovative smaller firms that are specifically smart
coatings focused as an entry point for companies looking the pursue these markets.
This is a potentially significant opportunity for investors, innovators and inventors to
consider. While materials plays are not going to produce the massive returns on
investment that electronics, software and content firms will potentially offer, they do
provide reasonable return potential. University groups, small start-ups and the like can
attract reasonable finding from larger firms or boutique investment groups if the IP is right
and the applications targeted make sense.
This will make some sense to the smaller firms too in that many of them seem poorly
financed and with very weak supply chains— sometimes just a few regional wholesalers.
However, not all smart coatings firms are weak in this sense—consider Gentex’s success.
Perhaps there is a lesson there for smaller smart coatings-oriented firms—move up the
value chain as Gentex has done.
In past n-tech Research reports on smart coatings, smaller smart coatings firms that we
have mentioned have included AnCatt, Balcony Systems Solutions, Debiotech,
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NanoShell, and New Energy Technologies. However, this is just a smattering of the firms
to which the comments above apply.
3.3 Barriers to Growth in the Smart Coatings Market
Despite the strong potential of smart coatings in various industrial applications, there are
certain gray areas that need to be effectively addressed in order to expand the scope of
the global smart coatings market beyond traditional consumer segments. Some of the key
areas of concern that require a rational solution from the smart coatings community
include:
 The premium pricing structure
 Technological gaps
 Unfavorable environmental regulations
 Disinclination of end users towards particular products.
Regulations: Environmental regulations may impact the growth prospects of some smart
coating solutions that rely on materials of concern. For example, smart coatings
incorporating copper and chromium VI have faced a level of uncertainty in various
applications, such as commercial marine vessels operating in inland waterways.
Hence, coating manufacturers must thoroughly assess the environmental impact of any
materials used in final smart coating formulations before choosing the ideal candidates
for their smart coating solutions.
End-user behavior: Ultimately, it will be the interest of the end user that spurs demand for
each particular type of smart coating. Coating manufacturers must convince their target
consumers of the potential benefits of their products.
For instance, oil-slick removal coating manufacturers have found it difficult to convince
the large energy firms to try their unique coating solutions. Therefore, it is advisable for
smart coating producers to proactively gauge the market demand for new smart coating
products and determine their true market potential.
4 Summary of Eight-Year Smart Coatings Market Forecasts
We summarize our expectations for smart coatings in Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 3. Exhibit 2 is
a quantitative forecast and Exhibit 3 is a roadmap.
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Phone: 804-938-0030
Email: info@ntechresearch.com
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19
n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058
Phone: 804-938-0030
Exhibit 2: Eight-Year Revenue Forecast for Smart Coatings ($ Millions)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Total 607 953 1,521 2,442 4,139 5,792 7,924 10,659
© n-tech Research 2015
Total Smart Coatings Market, 2015-2022
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$Millions
© n-tech Research 2015
Exhibit 3: Total Smart Coatings Market,
2015-2022
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Phone: 804-938-0030
Email: info@ntechresearch.com
Web: www.ntechresearch.com
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n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058
Phone: 804-938-0030
Exhibit 3: Roadmap for Smart Coatings
Period Technology Evolution/Focus Commercialization
2015-2018
Active R&D work on
autonomic smart coatings
and new materials
Self-dimming glass, non-
autonomic self-healing and
self-cleaning coatings
commercialized
2019-2022
R&D emphasis on multi-
functional coatings
Smart coatings R&D taking
on a growing nano-
technological focus
Autonomic smart coatings
replace non-autonomic self-
coatings
Beyond 2022
R&D focus is on new ways to
make coatings act as
sensors
Multi-functional coatings
broadly commercialized
Age of smart surfaces
© 2015 n-tech Research
To obtain the full version of the report, Smart Coatings Markets 2015-2022 please contact us at
sales@ntechresearch.com

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Smart Coatings Markets, An Emerging Opportunity

  • 1. n-tech Research Note Smart Coatings Markets: An Emerging Opportunity Issue date: June 2015 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com
  • 2. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 1 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 About n-tech Research n-tech Research is the industry’s leading source of market analysis and forecasting for the smart materials space. Our Smart Materials research program addresses the key smart materials markets, focusing on material functionalities and their application to various vertical markets and product solutions. We supply information and analysis to the smart materials sector through both reports and custom consulting. Founded in 2004 as NanoMarkets, our firm has been involved with researching nanomaterials, thin-film, printed and organic electronics, conductive materials (inks and coatings) and smart coatings and materials related markets and applications. Please visit us on the web at www.ntechresearch.com of contact our offices at (804) 938- 0030 or sales@ntechresearch.com to arrange a discussion on how our program can benefit your organization. n-tech Report Program Our reports examine the commercial opportunities brought about by advances in material science and the increasing functionality and performance that “intelligent” materials make possible through applications in energy, electronics, medicine, construction and other industries:  n-tech’s reports identify current and future market opportunities. n-tech’s comprehensive analysis reflects today’s smart materials realities and tomorrow’s profitable possibilities. Our reports provide marketing and business development executives with guidance on developing business models fine-tuned to the emerging smart materials market. And they are candid assessments of the market; not just data dumps from the Internet.  Our reports complement internal product planning and technology road mapping. They can provide low-cost knowledge enhancement for firms at every level of the smart materials supply chain. They can also serve to validate internal smart materials market strategies or to provide a third-party assessment of the prospects for outside investors.
  • 3. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 2 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030  All n-tech reports include detailed revenue and volume forecasts based on tried and tested methodologies that have been used by n-tech and associated companies going back three decades. Our forecasts are both believable and provide clients with a deep insight into where the money will be made and lost in the smart materials space over the next eight years.  n-tech reports can be purchased individually or as a subscription. Current Reports:  Electrochromic Glass and Film Markets 2014-2021  Smart Coatings Markets 2015-2022  Smart Surfaces Markets 2015-2022  Smart Mirrors Technologies and Markets 2015-2022  Markets for Self-Healing Materials 2015-2022  Smart Window Materials and Films Markets 2015-2022 Upcoming:  Shape Memory Materials Markets  Color Shifting Materials Markets  Multi-Functional Materials and Coatings Markets  Self-Assembling Materials Markets  Self-Cleaning Materials Markets  Antimicrobial Materials and Coatings Markets  Anticorrosive Materials and Coatings Markets  Smart Windows Markets  Sensor Embedded Coatings and Materials Markets  Metamaterials www.ntechresearch.com/market_reports
  • 4. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 3 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 n-tech Custom Consulting While reports are our core deliverable, n-tech also carries out custom consulting assignments when our clients need more detailed assessments of markets and companies:  Market sizing and segmentation  Product and market validation  Messaging  Investment support  Due diligence Research Team Lawrence Gasman is the Principal Analyst at n-tech Research and one of its co- founders. Mr. Gasman has 35 years' experience of analyzing the commercialization potential of complex technologies and currently manages all of n-tech’s industry research. For more than a decade Mr. Gasman has focused his interests on identifying the business opportunities in advanced materials and manufacturing and contributes much of the analysis for n-tech’s core research work on smart materials and surfaces. He is also an acknowledged expert on forecasting for high-technology markets in a broad range of industries. Mr. Gasman's consulting clients have included multinationals, start-ups and investors and he has advised them on new product introduction, market positioning and strategy, and sales potential. He has also provided due diligence on mergers and acquisitions for his financial clients and serves on the technology advisory board of a major specialty chemicals firm. He was educated at Manchester University, with advanced degrees from the London School of Economics and London Business School. Tarun Vemulkar is a technology analyst at n-tech Research. Tarun has a background in materials-related research, process development, and engineering, with hands-on
  • 5. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 4 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 experience researching nanomaterials, and the industrial manufacture of DRAM and NAND memory at a leading company in the semiconductor industry. Vemulkar’s academic background is as a materials scientist. He holds a Bachelor's and a Master's in Science and Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania. He has published research on novel semiconductor nanomaterials and their application in real world devices. At n-tech he has issued reports on new electrode materials for lithium ion batteries and oxide thin-film transistors and is currently working on his next report on shape memory materials. James Montgomery is a market analyst for n-tech research having extensive experience in covering clean tech and electronics and related materials markets during his time with the firm. Since 2003 he has covered various business and technology markets, delivering a wide range of content to broad B2B/B2C audiences in renewable energy, industrial lasers, and semiconductor manufacturing. He has produced content from daily news to C-level executive interviews, magazine features, blogs, and video coverage. Prior to coming to n-tech he was associate editor at RenewableEnergyWorld.com, reporting on trends in solar and wind technologies, policies, and finance. Prior to that he focused on the market for industrial lasers used in manufacturing for Industrial Laser Solutions, and for nearly 10 years he covered semiconductor manufacturing trends and technologies for Solid State Technology.
  • 6. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 5 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Table of Contents 1 Technology Evolving: The Business Impact of the New Smart Coatings ............. 6 1.1 It’s Not the Smartness ......................................................................... 7 1.2 The Next Big Thing? ............................................................................ 7 1.3 Self-Healing, Self-Assembling and Self-Cleaning Coatings: The Nanotechnologists’ Dream Fulfilled .............................................................. 8 1.4 Smart Coatings for Smart Glass and Color-Shifting ................................. 10 1.5 Other Coatings and Future Coatings ..................................................... 10 2 The Next Markets for Smart Coatings......................................................... 11 2.1 The Future of Smart Coatings is in Electronics........................................ 11 2.2 What’s Left for Smart Coatings in the Energy and Construction Sector ....... 12 2.3 Military and Healthcare: Standing Outside the Fray................................ 14 2.4 Smart Coatings in the Automotive and Transportation Sector ................... 15 3 Effective Competition in the Smart Coatings Space ...................................... 16 3.1 Smart Coatings Compete With Sensors and Smart Surfaces ..................... 16 3.2 The Supply Chain versus the Innovation Chain....................................... 16 3.3 Barriers to Growth in the Smart Coatings Market.................................... 18 4 Summary of Eight-Year Smart Coatings Market Forecasts ............................. 18 List of Exhibits Exhibit 1: Levels of Intelligence in Smart Coatings ............................................. 6 Exhibit 2: Eight-Year Revenue Forecast for Smart Coatings ($ Millions)............... 19 Exhibit 3: Total Smart Coatings Market, 2015-2022 ......................................... 19
  • 7. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 6 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 1 Technology Evolving: The Business Impact of the New Smart Coatings Over the years, smart coatings have been tacitly defined as the most functional of functional coatings. Of course, functionality of coatings and other materials has changed. A coating that might have been thought of as smart in the past is not considered as such now. Over time, one generation of “smart coatings” becomes merely “functional,” and a new generation of coatings takes over in the “smart coatings” category. n-tech Research believes that this is what is happening right now. What we are seeing is that smart coatings are about to take a great leap forward in “intelligence” that will lead to new smart coating products and product classes. In turn, this represents new opportunities for materials firms (including substrate firms), coatings machine makers and even OEMs. In Exhibit 1, we show how we think smart coatings will evolve over time with regard to intelligence. Exhibit 1: Levels of Intelligence in Smart Coatings Intelligence Level Functionality Examples Standard (dumb) functional coatings One simple function with no response to outside stimuli Indium tin oxide (ITO) Anti-scratch coatings Non-autonomic smart coatings Responds to outside stimuli, but needs some human intervention to trigger “smartness” Self-cleaning ovens Reversible polymers Autonomic smart coatings Completely automatic smart response to outside stimulus Capillary-based self-cleaning materials Shape memory materials Multifunctional smart coatings Offers multiple smart features – typically the result of multiple coating layers Not many real world examples as yet. However, self-dimming glass, which is also self-cleaning and has PV capabilities is where we are headed. Many relevant R&D programs now appear to be reaching a point where they are just a year or two away from leading to viable commercial products with a level of intelligence that has not seen before.
  • 8. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 7 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 1.1 It’s Not the Smartness From a market perspective, of course it is not intelligence/smartness that sells. Rather, the point is that smartness of coatings is now reaching a point where they are going to be much more useful than ever before and much longer lived, which opens up new addressable markets. These addressable markets are already served by functional coatings of various kinds. These coatings are products that are adequate in many ways but have always fallen short in important ways. Anti-scratch coatings, for example, can do a good job in warding off scratches. But when scratches do occur, they are there for good. Anti-scratch coatings cannot heal them, but self-healing coatings can. Both automotive and building windows have been tinted for decades. But they stay tinted when the sun goes in, while self-tinting windows adjust to sunlight. Based on this, n-tech sees smart coatings in similar terms to another kind of coating that we have previously covered in depth; transparent conductors. In this market, ITO has served for many years, but has begun to see growing penetration by nano-engineered alternatives with better mechanical and cost properties. The replacement trend is slow. But it has been more than enough to lead to the creation of significant new business opportunities, not to mention a slew of new start-ups and projects at larger materials/specialty chem firms. 1.2 The Next Big Thing? All of this suggests to n-tech that smart coatings (and smart materials more generally) will be a substantial business opportunity going forward and we think that we expect to see large firms make substantial investments in this area; some have already. These firms will include not just coatings firms, but also the large glass firms, and other firms higher up the supply chain. Already smart coatings is a vibrant enough topic to have spawned dozens of R&D projects all over the world, not to mention as several conferences. In the near future we think that smart coatings will  Create protectable intellectual property (IP)  Avoid commoditization of coatings products  Lead to a stream of new products over a sustained period of time. These trends will have important consequences. The trend towards a better IP environment will, n-tech Research believes, attract new attention for the smart coatings
  • 9. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 8 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 business from venture and angel capitalists. This is important in a sector of the coatings business that has often seemed characterized by small struggling companies with mediocre supply chains. The other two factors listed above suggest that players in the smart coatings space can expect healthy margins that should be sustainable over a lengthy period and reasons why large specialty chemicals firms should be taking a serious look at the smart coatings space right now. The development of smart coatings has been held back by the inability to create very high performance coatings with a low-temperature process. However, printing technology has a unique ability to provide complex texturing of surfaces, which fits well with the smart coatings goal. In another development related to the manufacture of smart coatings, several firms have been working on the LbL approach to develop cost-effective, uniform- quality coatings. 1.3 Self-Healing, Self-Assembling and Self-Cleaning Coatings: The Nanotechnologists’ Dream Fulfilled Self-healing, self-assembling and self-cleaning coatings are especially important in this context and they fit particularly well into the trends mentioned above. In particular, the obvious usefulness of these products in so many applications areas mean that they will generate major revenues if they can prove out technologically. Although coatings in each of these three categories have been available for some time, they are, we think, about to reach lifetimes and performance levels that they have not attained before. The latest generation of self-healing, self-assembling and self-cleaning coatings will all address large markets and have an attractive technology pipeline with a low chance of commoditization. Self-healing, self-assembling and self-cleaning are precisely the functionalities that the early R&D in nanotechnology was supposed to lead to, but never quite did. Self-healing coatings: The big technological leap forward that n-tech expects in the area of self-healing coatings is an improvement in terms of the type and size of damage that they can self-heal. While we are not buying the hype on smart coatings someday being able to repair major damage to an aircraft fuselage, there is plenty of room for improvement in today’s “self- healing” coatings, which are often little more than anti-scratch coatings. However, competition in this space will not be just on what size of hole a coating can repair, but also on (1) how long the repair takes—some self-healing coatings today can take many hours and (2) the longevity of the coatings.
  • 10. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 9 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Self-assembling coatings: Self-assembling coatings can already demonstrate some impressive advantages and n-tech Research believes these will only increase as new generations of self-assembling coatings come onto the market. In particular, we think that advanced self-assembling coatings can provide reduction in the cost and ease of manufacturing processes. For example, self-stratifying coatings can already provide a way to eliminate the need for multiple coats. But it seems likely that as self-assembling coatings—and self-assembling materials more generally—evolve they will become an important part of advanced manufacturing techniques. Self-cleaning coatings: Self-cleaning ovens are ubiquitous, but other self-cleaning coatings and self-cleaning surface opportunities have yet to be exploited because of the absence of suitable coatings, especially coatings with an adequate lifetime. For example, self-cleaning windows have been available on the market since 2001, but they tend not to last long, which is the reason they have never made it out of the single-family residential sector An incentive for developing such coatings is obviously that they provide low maintenance, reduced cleaning time, and reduced cost. To best exploit these opportunities, new hydrophilic, hydrophobic, oleophobic, amphiphobic and multifunctional coatings are being developed. Some of the technological trends that n-tech sees as having reasonable potential in the area of self-cleaning coatings are (1) nano-technological approaches to textured hydrophobic surfaces and (2) “super-hydrophobic coatings.” Hydrophilic surfaces are not as widely used as hydrophobic surfaces for self-cleaning coatings. These coatings typically use a photo-catalysis process with TiO2 as the main material. But there remain many challenges that need to be overcome by nanocrystalline TiO2, especially its robustness and optical transparency in glazing industries. A number of other approaches are under investigation, such as doping. There have also been various attempts to add materials to TiO2. And hydrophilic coatings are effective but have their limitations; inorganic dirt is not removed. Although not exactly self-cleaning, coatings that provide anti-fouling and antimicrobial functionality are closely related. In the anti-fouling sector, we are seeing opportunities for moving away from the traditional copper-based materials, and metallic materials more generally. Biocide-free anti-fouling coating solutions are also being investigated, as are layered polymer anti-fouling coatings. “Smart” antimicrobials have tended to mean just that there is a time-release mechanism built in. However, we are seeing a shift towards the use of self-assembly and hydrophilic technology for smart antimicrobial coatings.
  • 11. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 10 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 1.4 Smart Coatings for Smart Glass and Color-Shifting Self-dimming glass is often celebrated as one of the successes of smart coatings. Electrochromic (EC) automotive mirrors are already a billion dollar business. Self- dimming windows are a solid, albeit niche business. And while there are several ways to make smart windows aside from electrochromic coatings, we do not consider them significant alternatives to EC at the present time:  Photochromic materials currently are not seen as much of a challenge to electrochromic windows. However, hybrid photochromic/electrochromic windows such as those produced by SWITCH Materials have commercial potential.  Meanwhile, the business opportunities for SPD smart windows are limited by the fact that SPD technology is controlled by Research Frontiers.  Most people also do not see thermochromic windows as much of a threat to the dominant electrochromic technology because this type of smart glass remains somewhat tinted at all times. Something similar can be said about PDLC technology. Color-shifting coatings: Somewhat related to self-dimming coatings are color-shifting coatings; both change the shade of the substrate onto which they are coated and they use related technologies, but have different applications. Color-shifting coatings are used on vehicles, buildings, and packaging to help consumers avoid counterfeit drugs and other fake merchandise. The color changing paint that appears to have the biggest mindshare at the present time is Valspar’s Kameleon paint. Here, the color effect is due to the use of mica particles in the paint. But other color-shifting technologies include thermochromic and photochromic paints. Many of these color-shifting paints are high cost and the final effect can be somewhat uncertain. So there is room for improvement here. However, unlike the other smart coatings opportunities we have reviewed in this Executive Summary, the addressable market for color-shifting coatings seems somewhat constrained. 1.5 Other Coatings and Future Coatings Color-shifting coatings are by no means the only smart coatings that are not “megatrends” in the way that (say) self-healing coatings are. There are other segments of the smart coatings market that represent apparently smaller opportunities either because the addressable markets are limited or because the technology development work that still remains to be done is at a relatively early stage.
  • 12. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 11 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Smart coatings for corrosion/wear resistance: There is a significant opportunity in this area to develop new kinds of coatings that avoid the chromium VI that has commonly been used in these coatings. Approaches that are based on pH changes seem to be especially popular and here the changes may be detected either using fluorescent molecules, quantum dots or by some other method. Pressure sensitive smart coatings: Pressure-responsive paints (PSP) are used for carrying out aerodynamic testing in wind tunnels, where the PSPs serve to measure the airflow. This application is common to both the automotive and aerospace industry. Scientists at Pennsylvania State University have, however, developed a luminescent pressure-sensitive coating that is claimed to be better than PSPs. So this suggests that there may be opportunities for pressure-sensitive smart coatings beyond the more conventional PSPs. Future smart coatings: n-tech Research believes that the immediate opportunities for smart coatings lay mostly in market-expanding improvements of existing materials. However, there are also a few instances of entirely novel materials platforms being used for new kinds of smart coatings but largely longer-term opportunities. One example of what we are talking about would be the use of metamaterials in smart optical coatings. Another is the small research program designed to create new kinds of self-healing products. Particularly exciting are multilayer coatings, which n-tech Research sees as an important commercialization direction since it is the simplest way to develop coatings that are multifunctional. As an example of truly smart coatings, one might imagine in the future, a smart coating that provides photovoltaic energy generation with inherent self-repair and self-cleaning capabilities. Whatever the functionality of multilayer coatings, cost will be a factor holding back the development and use of these sophisticated smart coatings. 2 The Next Markets for Smart Coatings 2.1 The Future of Smart Coatings is in Electronics n-tech Research is a strong believer in the commercial potential for smart electronics coatings which ties into the emergence of IoT and continued growth in mobile and wearable electronics. Smart coatings and the IoT: The idea behind the IoT is that—using embedded sensors and processors—buildings, appliances, machines and objects will become more responsive to
  • 13. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 12 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 human needs in both personal and professional environments and provide increased functionality and enhanced data collection capabilities:  While smart materials are not being prominently mentioned in current IoT literature, n-tech sees a perfect fit.  Self-cleaning and self-repairing coatings that clean and repair themselves either automatically or in response to external cues?  Sensors embedded into coatings and surfaces the collect data and react as needed?  Or, a smart coating functions as sensor that serves as a more cost effective way to create a wide-area sensing panel than a large array of sensing devices? The possibilities in this regard are significant. Prospects for self-cleaning coatings in the smartphone and tablet market: n-tech Research believes that protective smart coatings for smartphones and other mobile devices will be commercially significant. These will protect devices from yellowing, and chemical effects, as well as the buildup of dirt, microbes and smudges. The recent unsuccessful attempt by Apple to coat phones with sapphire at least demonstrates how important this kind of coating might be eventually and the markets that are opening up for protective coatings in this space. Self-healing coatings are also a class of smart coatings that will generate revenues in the electronics sector. Waterborne polyurethane dispersions have already been shown to conveniently realign themselves to fill in scratches. We also expect that there is a niche market here for smart antimicrobials. In any case, the smartphone/tablet market is so huge—about two billion units shipped annually—that it seems inevitable that smart coatings makers will be incentivized to design coatings especially for this market segment. 2.2 What’s Left for Smart Coatings in the Energy and Construction Sector Much of the market emphasis in the smart coatings space during the past decade has been on the building products sector with green initiatives being an important driver. Prospects for smart coatings in an era of green building decline: However in 2015, the decline in oil prices has not only taken the steam out the energy efficiency story but threatens to curb the resurgent green building sector where self-healing and self-cleaning coatings seemed to have viable applications.
  • 14. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 13 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 At the same time much of the on-going availability of incentives provided for green building remain uncertain and this may mean that providing a special focus on this sector such as the use self-cleaning coatings for solar panels no longer makes much sense. And while we can point to Japan, where solar is having something of a revival at the moment, the overall sector seems less certain of a smart coatings bet. All this raises the issue of how smart coatings firms will reposition their product ranges in the near future to minimize the growing business risks associated with green building. Self-dimming coatings for windows will have to be repositioned so that the story around them is about aesthetics and mood lighting and perhaps less on energy savings as the basis for the story. Also, n-tech Research is seeing a lot of activity in the self-healing concrete sector, which is in no way dependent on energy prices. We believe that active smart coatings will remain restricted to new construction activities, because retrofitting applications will remain prohibitively expensive for the majority of consumers. Smart coatings and the new energy sector: n-tech Research believes that market opportunities for smart coatings are going to be more limited in the oil and gas sector, compared to how we saw things turning out in our previous smart coatings market analyses. In particular, we expect that the smart protective coatings that in the past have been sold to gas and oil firms looking for new wells and deposits to see a decline as many shale oil firms have radically cut back on their capital expenditures, for example. Also seeing slower growth in the near future will be the self-cleaning coatings that started to be used on solar panels in the last few years. Such coatings can be very effective in the wind sector. For example research has shown that airborne sand and rain reduce the energy output of wind turbines by up to 20 percent. However, n-tech Research does not believe that the decline in the energy sector is forever and once energy prices start trending upward in some sustainable way we expect the market for energy-related smart coatings to revive. In the meantime, R&D into new energy technologies continues and smart coatings may find a role there—in the development of fuel cells, for example. In addition, smart coatings are being developed for use as oil-filtering materials that can completely separate oil and water in an economical manner. And given the regulatory support for eco-friendly oil spill removal solutions, new products based on smart coatings are still likely to be commercially popular.
  • 15. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 14 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 2.3 Military and Healthcare: Standing Outside the Fray While much of the market activity in the smart coatings space may well be characterized by a shift from “green” to electronics, n-tech Research believes that there are still plenty of opportunities for smart coatings in military and healthcare sectors. Some of the most attractive include the ones reviewed below. Worldwide, the U.S. military is both the leading supporter of research on smart coatings and the largest military end user of smart coating technology. The majority of research projects in this space are undertaken directly by the U.S. military or jointly with other research institutes, sometimes through funding and sometimes through collaboration. Smart antimicrobial coatings is already established: Smart coatings for use as antimicrobial agents are extending beyond medical uses to the food, textile, and residential segments. As a result, n-tech Research sees the addressable market for smart anti-microbial coatings, which is in some ways already established, as growing. Need of innovative drug delivery agents: The majority of smart coatings that are meant to trigger automatic drug release based on an external stimuli are still in the research phase and there is uncertainty over the commercial release of such advanced drug delivery systems in the immediate future. Since such coatings will have to pass through many more tests than other types of smart coatings, there is also additional business risk in this market segment. That said, there are some interesting developments in this space and new coatings of this type can plug into the demand from aging populations in the developed countries. Among the developments we see in this area that appear to meet a real need are bio-adhesive coatings that offer controlled drug release for the prevention of drug overdoses in critical situations. Anti-corrosion coatings demand in the military: The military seems likely to continue to be an attractive market (and funding source) for smart coatings. As n-tech Research sees it, the military is especially interested in anti-corrosion coatings. What stands out in this regard are new smart coatings designed to protect galvanized steel and aluminum surfaces. In this context, we anticipate that military markets will be examining closely the ability of such smart coatings to extend the service life, reduce operational costs, and improve the chemical resistance of metal structures relevant to military applications. This will lead to the adoption of these materials for other related military applications in the medium term.
  • 16. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 15 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 The active involvement of the U.S. Navy's Office of Naval Research (ONR) in the development of anti-fouling solutions through the “Antifouling/Fouling Release Coatings Program” leads n-tech Research to believe that more innovative commercial solutions, including non-metallic and biocide-free coatings, will be commercialized in the near to medium term of the forecasting period of this report. Smart coatings for camouflage: The development of a smart coating with a self-signaling feature that can effectively camouflage military personnel and equipment, such as tanks, helicopters, and trucks has been proposed. Another possibility is the use of natural materials such as reflectin—a protein used by squid to change color and reflect light—to provide infrared invisibility. 2.4 Smart Coatings in the Automotive and Transportation Sector Smart coatings provide numerous benefits for the automotive and transportation industry, such as improved asset life, limited corrosion damage, and reduced maintenance and overall cost of ownership. These benefits extend across all of the major verticals in this sector, including land vehicles, aircraft, trains, and marine vessels. Self-dimming and self-healing coatings likely to drive demand: Self-dimming windows and self-cleaning windows are already used in the transportation sector. However, as previously noted, these smart coatings will have to improve in terms of performance in order to gain market share. In addition, again as noted, the marketing story around self- dimming glass will have to rely less upon energy savings. Eco-friendly anti-fouling coatings in demand in the marine industry: Apart from energy conservation via self-dimming window coating solutions, anti-fouling coating solutions have long been in demand from the global marine industry. In order to address the growing concern over biofouling, anti-fouling coatings, new smart anti-fouling coatings are being developed. Corrosion-sensing and de-icing coatings to gain prominence in the airline industry: Corrosion of aircraft parts and disintegration of the protective paint are some of the key areas of concern for the airline industry. Currently, research is being undertaken to develop optical fiber sensors with fluorescent coatings that can indicate paint degradation and prevent microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). Experimentation is also in progress with polymer coatings that have the potential to prevent metal corrosion by forming a barrier to water and oxygen.
  • 17. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 16 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 De-icing is a second major issue for the industry, and leading airlines and research institutes are jointly developing novel coatings that can lead to frost-free aircraft body surfaces. Self-stratifying coatings in the automotive sector: Labor and material costs involved in the application of a second coating on automobiles has been an issue in the industry for some time. As a result, self-stratifying coatings that are able to form multilayer films from a single coating system are gaining prominence in the automobile industry. Other ongoing smart coating developments: A number of additional smart coatings developments are taking place in the transportation sector. A few prominent examples include:  Coatings that improve the effectiveness of braking and suspension systems in the transportation segment.  Smart coatings with embedded sensors for tires that signal the driver when the tires begin to lose traction.  Smart lubricant coatings that can either enhance the performance and effectiveness of automotive oils or eliminate the use of automotive oils entirely. 3 Effective Competition in the Smart Coatings Space 3.1 Smart Coatings Compete With Sensors and Smart Surfaces Competition in the smart coatings space occurs at different levels. Smart coatings themselves must compete with electronic or electrochemical sensors which can now be miniaturized to a point where they can—under some circumstances—make cost effective competitors to smart coatings. And smart coatings have an even closer competitor in the form of smart surfaces, which can achieve many of the same effects as smart coatings, but through nano-patterning surfaces. Smart surfaces are only beginning to be commercialized and smart coatings have a head start. But increasingly all the market sectors in which smart coatings play will see penetration from smart surfaces, too. 3.2 The Supply Chain versus the Innovation Chain There are several large specialty chemical companies that seem well positioned to supply smart coatings into the market in that they already supply one or two “semi-smart” coatings. 3M for example, offers scratch resistant and protection coatings for a wide variety of applications, Dow Corning provides its 2634 coating based on alkoxysilane
  • 18. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 17 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 functional perfluoropolyether (PFPE) hybrid polymers that form a transparent and durable thin film on the top of touch screens. And so on. But we have yet to see any of the giant specialty chemical firms really focusing on smart coatings. This would mean that either, (1) one of these firms would start to dominate a significantly sized segment of the smart coatings business or (2) that such a firm would establish a sizeable group that specializes in smart coatings. Which large specialty chemical firms are likely to take this direction is hard to say. n-tech Research has noted before that AkzoNobel is dedicated to exploring all possible new business avenues in the coatings domain and is developing novel, copper-free anti- fouling coatings and self-stratifying coatings, so this is perhaps one company to watch. But this is just one company and we believe that there will be a few surprises with regard to who does and who doesn’t enter the smart coatings markets. It is possible—indeed likely—that some large firms will devote significant amounts of resources to smart coatings, but will limit their activities to certain market segments that fit with the central business objectives and product ranges. For example, some of the large glass firms—such as Corning and Saint-Gobain—are already major factors in self- dimming glass. And it would be no surprise to see DuPont build a smart coatings strategy around one of its major flagship products, such as Teflon. Given the overall lack of commitment to smart coatings as a class of materials, we see investment in or acquisitions of innovative smaller firms that are specifically smart coatings focused as an entry point for companies looking the pursue these markets. This is a potentially significant opportunity for investors, innovators and inventors to consider. While materials plays are not going to produce the massive returns on investment that electronics, software and content firms will potentially offer, they do provide reasonable return potential. University groups, small start-ups and the like can attract reasonable finding from larger firms or boutique investment groups if the IP is right and the applications targeted make sense. This will make some sense to the smaller firms too in that many of them seem poorly financed and with very weak supply chains— sometimes just a few regional wholesalers. However, not all smart coatings firms are weak in this sense—consider Gentex’s success. Perhaps there is a lesson there for smaller smart coatings-oriented firms—move up the value chain as Gentex has done. In past n-tech Research reports on smart coatings, smaller smart coatings firms that we have mentioned have included AnCatt, Balcony Systems Solutions, Debiotech,
  • 19. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 18 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 NanoShell, and New Energy Technologies. However, this is just a smattering of the firms to which the comments above apply. 3.3 Barriers to Growth in the Smart Coatings Market Despite the strong potential of smart coatings in various industrial applications, there are certain gray areas that need to be effectively addressed in order to expand the scope of the global smart coatings market beyond traditional consumer segments. Some of the key areas of concern that require a rational solution from the smart coatings community include:  The premium pricing structure  Technological gaps  Unfavorable environmental regulations  Disinclination of end users towards particular products. Regulations: Environmental regulations may impact the growth prospects of some smart coating solutions that rely on materials of concern. For example, smart coatings incorporating copper and chromium VI have faced a level of uncertainty in various applications, such as commercial marine vessels operating in inland waterways. Hence, coating manufacturers must thoroughly assess the environmental impact of any materials used in final smart coating formulations before choosing the ideal candidates for their smart coating solutions. End-user behavior: Ultimately, it will be the interest of the end user that spurs demand for each particular type of smart coating. Coating manufacturers must convince their target consumers of the potential benefits of their products. For instance, oil-slick removal coating manufacturers have found it difficult to convince the large energy firms to try their unique coating solutions. Therefore, it is advisable for smart coating producers to proactively gauge the market demand for new smart coating products and determine their true market potential. 4 Summary of Eight-Year Smart Coatings Market Forecasts We summarize our expectations for smart coatings in Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 3. Exhibit 2 is a quantitative forecast and Exhibit 3 is a roadmap.
  • 20. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 19 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Exhibit 2: Eight-Year Revenue Forecast for Smart Coatings ($ Millions) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total 607 953 1,521 2,442 4,139 5,792 7,924 10,659 © n-tech Research 2015 Total Smart Coatings Market, 2015-2022 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $Millions © n-tech Research 2015 Exhibit 3: Total Smart Coatings Market, 2015-2022
  • 21. n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Email: info@ntechresearch.com Web: www.ntechresearch.com 20 n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Phone: 804-938-0030 Exhibit 3: Roadmap for Smart Coatings Period Technology Evolution/Focus Commercialization 2015-2018 Active R&D work on autonomic smart coatings and new materials Self-dimming glass, non- autonomic self-healing and self-cleaning coatings commercialized 2019-2022 R&D emphasis on multi- functional coatings Smart coatings R&D taking on a growing nano- technological focus Autonomic smart coatings replace non-autonomic self- coatings Beyond 2022 R&D focus is on new ways to make coatings act as sensors Multi-functional coatings broadly commercialized Age of smart surfaces © 2015 n-tech Research To obtain the full version of the report, Smart Coatings Markets 2015-2022 please contact us at sales@ntechresearch.com