4. 4November 2018
Angry Societies
Multipolar world
Global average cost of cyber crime
Source: Accenture, Ponemon Institute, Credit Suisse
Online spending – growth
potential in EM (% of retail done online)
Popular disenchantment still drives populist electoral wins in
Developed and Emerging Markets
Global trade skirmishes have grabbed market and media attention
since early 2018
Geopolitical tensions regularly resurface (Iran deal, Russia/West,
China Seas)
Domestic economy first
Security & Defense
Civil and Cyber
Emerging market consumers
Young, online and socially mobile
National champions & brands
In a world of higher trade frictions
Source: Credit Suisse EM Consumer Survey 2018
0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
Mexico
India
Russia
Brasil
Italy
Turkey
Japan
Germany
USA
Denmark
South-Korea
UK
China
7.2 7.6 7.7
9.5
11.7
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
m USD
Costs (in USD) Average
1
5. 5November 2018
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse Global Markets estimates
Number of records lost to data breaches is increasing at an exponential rate
Angry societies – Multipolar world
Security and defense
6. 6November 2018
Survey countries include Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Mexico, Turkey and South Africa
Source: World Bank, Credit Suisse Consumer Survey 2018
Angry societies – Multipolar world
Emerging market consumers
Consumption share of global GDP (%): G6 versus selected EM countries
7. 7November 2018
Infrastructure – closing the gap
New sub-theme!: Telecom Infrastructure
G20 Buenos Aires Summit 2018
USD 94 bn trillion investment gap
by 2040
Infra-investment gap meets
yielding-asset gap PPP
investment opportunities
Transport
Number 1 infrastructure focus
Energy & Water
Unleashing EM economic potential
and DM sustainability
Affordable Housing
Scarce in DM and EM
New! Telecom Infrastructure
Catalyst 5G
Telecom Infrastructure
5G technology to reach a market
volume of USD 33 bn by 2026
with a CAGR of 50.9%
EU promotes its vision of
the “Gigabit Society” by 2025
Global fixed-line communications
equipment market is expected
to witness a CAGR of 4.1%
between 2017 and 2021
USA and China already seem
to be competing to build out the
superfast network the earliest
possible
Africa and LatAm
most underspent on infrastructure
Public and private infrastructure
investment 2017 (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank, Credit Suisse
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America & Caribbean
Central Asia
South Asia
Middle East & North Africa
East Asia & Pacific
2
8. 8November 2018
Technology at the service of humans
A new digitalization angle!: Blockchain
Healthtech
A solution to rising health costs
Artificial intelligence
Inevitably needed with data explosion
Digitalization/Blockchain
The modern era gold rush
Industry 4.0
Tightening labor markets to propel
robotics
Digitalization/Blockchain
Big Data: unstoppable but at risk
of regulation
Focus on experience-enhancing
rather than disrupting digitalization
Blockchain to provide efficiency
gains which form core principle
of technological advantages
Tokenization of products but
no view on Cryptocurrencies
Growing usage of VR and AR
devices
Source: Statista, Digi-Capital, Credit Suisse
VR/AR services for knowledge
and education
On the way to mainstream media
15 2010 15 20 20 30
10 18 30
45
65
100
2
75
210
355
460
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Installedbaseinmillions
Smartglasses AR/MR Console/PC VR
Mobile VR Mobile AR (replacement cycle)
3
9. 9November 2018
Expect strong growth in AI markets worldwide
Source: Statista, Credit Suisse
Technology at the service of humans
Artificial intelligence
10. 10November 2018
Source: Statista, Credit Suisse
Healthtech market
sales expected to grow materially
Technology at the service of humans
Healthtech
11. 11November 2018
Silver economy
Investing for population aging
Changing demographics
Source: United Nations, Credit Suisse
Life & Health insurance/
Asset managers
Individual old age funding
Old age diseases
Structural Pharma driver
Senior lifestyle
Seniors have time and money
Senior housing
Integrated housing and services
2.1 billion people globally aged
60+ by 2050
80% of elderly people likely
to live in emerging markets
75% of healthcare spending
is on the elderly
Euromonitor projects spending
power of seniors to double to
USD 15 trn by 2020
7.9
16.1
7.5
2.3
3.8
4.5
4
10.4
2.3
1.4
2.1
2.72.9
5.5
1.7 1.5 1.9 2.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
World Africa China Japan Europe US
2015
2050
2085
Potential support ratio of workers/
retired
Cohort by age-group Wealth of seniors
34% 28%
24%
20%
20%
19%
17%
21%
5% 11%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gen Z (0-19) Millenials (20-34) Gen X (35-49)
Baby boomers (50-69) Silent population (70+)
Source: United Nations, Credit Suisse
Source: ECB Household Survey April 2017, US Census Bureau
2013 data, Credit Suisse
Exchange rate as of 2013 as EU data taken between 2012–2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
< 35 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
'000 USD
USA EU Germany France
4
12. 12November 2018
Millennials values
New! ESG overlay on the whole Supertrend
India
China
Indonesia
USA
Nigeria
Brazil
Philippines
Russia
W. Europe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- 200 400 600 800 1,000
Gen Y and Gen Z population (in mn)
GenYandGenZas%ofcountry'spopulation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pure EVs Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) Hybrids (HEV)
Mild hybrid (48V) Fuel cell Electrification rate, rhs
in mn units
50% of the world population is less than 30 years old
1st Digitalized generation
A truly global generation
Post Modern generation
The generation that wants change
ESG : Companies must display exemplarity, values, engagement in Environment, Social and Governance matters
ESG Overlay across the entire Supertrend stock universe
Sustainable business and investments
Mainstream through Millennials
Fun, Health and Leisure
Millennials’ consumption priorities
Digital Natives
Connected 24/7
Millennials Housing
Small, central, shared, affordable
Clean Energy
Caring about tomorrow’s world
Emerging markets: Home to the majority
of the Millennials
Electrified cars development
Source: Credit Suisse estimatesSource: United Nations population division 2017 revision,
Credit Suisse
5
13. 13November 2018
Source: Newzoo, Credit Suisse
Esports audience growth projected to grow at 13.6% between 2018-21E
Millennials’ values
Fun, health and leisure
