effect of climate change on field crops and how to mitigate it

1. 1

2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS
IMPACT ON FIELD CROPS
NAGARJUN,P.
Sr M.Sc.(Agri.)
PALM-3007 2

3. Sequence of presentation
Introduction: Global warming and
Climate change
Impact of climate change on field crops
Strategies for mitigation
Conclusion
Future line of work
3

4. INTRODUCTION
4

5. Global warming
Global warming is the increase in the
earth’s average surface temperature due to
effect of green house gases.
5
Fig.1

6. Fig.2: Variations of the Earth's surface
temperature for the past 140 years
Source. IPCC 2007
6

7. Table 1. Abundance and lifetime of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere
7
ppbV : Parts per billion volume Source: IPCC 2007

8. Fig. 3: Share of global GHG emissions by sector
8

9. Fig. 4: Share of global GHG emissions by Agriculture
9

10. Global
warming
Warm ocean
Decreased co2
solubility in water
O3 Photochemical
reaction
N2O
Biomass
Burning& N-
fertilizers
Melting glacier &
polar caps
Decreased
reflective surface
Rising sea level
Flooding of coastal
regions
CH4
Cattle &
Termites
Garbage & Swampy
Rice fields
CO2
Deforestation
Fossil fuel
Combustion
Aerosol
propellants
Refrigerants
CFC
CFC
Fig.5
10

11. Climate change
“Climate change refers to a statistically significant
Variation either in the mean state of the climate or its
variability, persisting for an extended period”
“Climate change refers to general shifts in climate,
including temperature, precipitation, winds, and other
Factors”
11

12. Fig. 6
12

13. Fig. 7: Future Climate is Likely to be Warmer
• Although there is
considerable
uncertainty about
future, all climate
models indicate a
rising trend in
temperature. By
2100 a rise of 1.8 to
4oC is expected.
Higher values
cannot be ruled out.
Source: IPCC, 2007 13

14. Fig.8:Projected warming in 21st century
• Source: IPCC, 2007 14

15. Krishna et al., 2009
Fig. 9: Expected future change in monsoon rainfall and annual
surface temp for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s
15

16. Table 2: Climate Change Scenarios for
South Asia
CO2 levels: 393 ppm by 2020; 543 ppm by 2050 and 789 ppm by 2080
Source: IPCC, 2007
16
DJF: December, January, February
JJA: June, July, August

17. 150
200
250
300
2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17
MILLIONTONNES
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
MILLION
Production Requirement Population
Fig.10:Projected Requirement of Food grains
17

18. Fig.11: Impact of Climate Change
on Food Production
Time
Production
Demand
Business as
usual
Supply
Demand
18

19. Time
Production
Demand
Business as
usual
With climate
change
Fig.12: Impact of Climate Change
on Food Production
19

20. Time
Production
Demand
Business as
usual
With climate
change
With
adaptation
Fig.13: Impact of Climate Change
on Food Production
20

21. Climate change
impact on
agriculture
Fig.14
21

22. Source : Naveen Kalra, IARI, New Delhi
Fig.15 : Impact of climate change on agriculture
22

23. IARI, New Delhi
MODELS USED TO PREDICT CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE
23

24. 24

25. • IMPACT ON FIELD CROPS
25

26. IARI, New Delhi
An increase of 2 - 4oC is predicted to result in a
reduction in yields
Eastern regions more effected due to increase in
temperature and decreased radiation, resulting in
lower grains and shorter grain filling durations
Additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect was
nullified by an increase of temperature
Rice production
26

27. Fig. 16: Climate induced percentage change in yield: Irrigated Rice
Source: IPCC, 2008 27

28. Fig. 17: Climate induced percentage change in yield: Rainfed Rice
Source: IPCC, 2008 28

29. Effect of rise in temperature and
CO2 concentration
 Interaction of increase in temperature by 1-20
C along with increase in CO2 level by 350-450
ppm
This resulted in reduction of rice yields in
efficient cropping zones and coastal zones
(0.75t/ha and 0.06t/ha)
Sinha and Swaminathan, 1991

30. Temperature
change
Crop duration
(days)
Grain yield
(kg/ha)
Maximum LAI
+ 2.00 C -3.3 -8.4 -3.9
+ 1.50 C -2.6 -8.2 -3.9
+ 1.00 C -2.0 -4.9 -2.4
+ 0.50 C -1.3 -3.2 -1.1
Normal
- 0.50 C 0 +0.3 +0.2
- 1.00 C +1.3 +2.7 +0.5
- 1.50 C +2.0 +4.6 +1.1
- 2.00 C +13.1 +21.7 +13.6
Table 3 : Rice crop response (%) to change in
temperature
Source: Bharadwaj, 2008
30

31. Mathuda and Chakravarthy, 2000Ludhiana
Table 4 : Rice crop response to variations in temperature
31

32. IARI, New Delhi Saseendran et al ., 2000
Fig. 18: Sensitivity of rice yield to atmospheric temperature changes between
-6 0C and +6 0C as simulated by the CERES- Rice model
32

33. Table 5: Effect of increasing minimum
temperature on rice yield when
harvested in the month of November
Dhaliwal and Bedi (2002)
33

34. RESPONSE OF RICE PLANT
TO ELEVATED CO2
34

35. Table 6:Wheat crop response to
variation in temperature
Temp
Change(0C)
Crop
Duration
(days)
Maximum
LAI
Grains per
ear
Grain yield
(q/ha.)
Straw yield
(t/ha)
+2.0 -7.7 -23.9 +4.1 -12.2 -21.6
+1.5 -5.6 -17.6 +3.0 -7.2 -17.7
+1.0 -3.5 -12.1 -0.3 -4.9 -11.5
+0.5 -0.7 -6.8 +0.2 -0.2 -6.0
Normal 143 3.8 24.12 50.43 8.83
-0.5 +3.5 +16.6 -1.0 +5.9 +0.9
-1.0 +6.3 +23.4 -1.7 +9.4 +5.2
-1.5 +7.7 +26.3 -0.4 +7.0 +20.5
-2.0 +11.2 +37.8 -1.7 +6.7 +27.1
% Deviation in yield and yield attributes
Mavi et al., 2009 35LAI: Leaf area index

36. Fig.19: Simulated Impact of Global Climate
Change on Wheat Yields in North India
350
450
550
650
750
0 1 2 3 4 5
Increase in temperature, C
CO2,ppm
20%
10% 0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
WHEAT
350
450
550
650
750
0 1 2 3 4 5
Increase in temperature, C
CO2,ppm
20%
10% 0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
WHEAT
36
Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002

37. Fig.20:Simulated Impact of Global Climate
Change Scenarios on Wheat Yields in
North India
350
450
550
650
750
0 1 2 3 4 5
Increase in temperature, C
CO2,ppm
20%
10% 0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
WHEAT
350
450
550
650
750
0 1 2 3 4 5
Increase in temperature, C
CO2,ppm
20%
10% 0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
WHEAT
2020
2050
2080
37Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002

38. Fig.21:Impact of climate change on wheat
yields in a pessimistic technology scenario
38Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002

39. Fig.22:Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Wheat Production in India
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Production,Mtons
Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002
39

40. Fig.23: Simulated Impact of Global Climate
Change on Rainfed Wheat Yields in
Central India
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Changeingrainyield,%
Minimum
Maximum
40Source: Aggarwal et al., 2009

41. Fig 24: Simulated Impact of Global Climate
Change on Irrigated Maize Yields in
North India
41Source: Aggarwal et al., 2009

42. Table 7: Influence of varying levels of CO2
concentration on growth and
yield of soybean.
42Allen et al., 2009

43. Fig.25: Effect of increase in surface temperature on
soybean grain yield as simulated by the
APSIM model.
Mohanty et al.,2012
43

44. Fig.26:Effect of CO2 and temperature on
simulated yield of irrigated and rainfed
mustard
Mohanty et al.,2012 44

45. Table 8:Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Temperature Effects on Crop Yield – Several
Major Crops
Crop T opt
°c
T max
°c
Yield at
T opt
t/ha
Yield
at 28°
t/ha
Yield
at
32°c
t/ha
% decrease
( 28 to 32°C )
Rice 25 36 7.55 6.31 2.93 54
Soya bean 28 39 3.41 3.41 3.06 10
Dry bean 22 32 2.87 1.39 0.00 100
Peanut 25 40 3.38 3.22 2.58 20
Grain
sorghum
26 35 12.24 11.75 6.95 41
G.G.S N Rao. 2008

46. Table 9: Projected water requirement
by 2020
46
G.G.S N Rao. 2008mm: millimeter

47. Table 10: Change in crop duration to increase in
temperature.
47
G.G.S N Rao. 2008

48. Table 11:Impact of climate change on
rainfed agriculture in India
Crops Per cent loss of normal yield
Sorghum 43.03
Maize 14.09
Tur 28.23
Groundnut 34.09
Wheat 48.68
Onion 29.56
Cotton 59.96
Asha latha et al.,2012
48

49. Table 12 : Climate change impact on productivity of
wheat, rice ,maize and ground nut crops in Punjab .
49
% Reduction in yield to increase in temperature
Hundal et al., 2012

50. Effect of climate change on agriculture
Groundnut
Due to climate change mid season droughts are increasing due
to dry weather, suffering of plants from lack of water, depletion of
under ground water supply.
Sunflower
Due to changed rainfall situation, the sowings are not
completed before the end of July rather rather continued even after
July.
Chickpea
Since the harvest of the kharif crop is extended up to last week
of November, the rabi chickpea sowings are extended up to 2nd week
of December.
50
Rajegowda (2012)

51. Table 13: Impact of Climate Change
on Food Supply
51Source: Aggarwal et al., 2009

52. Influence of future climate change
on agriculture pests
1. Increased number of annul generation
2. Increased population growth rate
3. Extension of geographical ranges
4. Changed synchrony in pest-host relation
5. Increased insect migration
Pooter et al., 2004 52

53. Mitigation Strategies for CLIMATE CHANGE
53

54. Adaptation strategies to climate
change in agriculture
 Assist farmers in coping with current climatic risks
 Intensify food production systems
 Improve land and water management
 Enabling policies and regional cooperation
 Strengthen research for enhancing adaptive capacity
and mitigation potential
54

55.  Developing microbial consortium to minimize the
production of GHG from rice field
 Identifying microbes for methane oxidation
 Soil biodiversity conservation
Mitigation concepts
55

56. Mitigating pool for GHG
• Reforestation
• Trough Agronomic practices
- Carbon sequestration
- Conservation activities
- Cut down burning of crop residues
- Reduce tillage practices
- Improve land management
56

57. CH4 - Wet rice cultivation can be managed by
- Breeding rice cultivars with low CH4 emission
- Alternate wetting and drying
- Use of sulfate containing fertilizers
- Change in pattern of fertilizer
- Use of methanotrophic bacteria
- Controlling soil PH
- Adoption SRI and aerobic method
57

58. N2O from agriculture can be managed by
• Use of nitrification inhibitors
• Use of Sulphur coated urea and other slow
release urea
• Placing fertilizer in anaerobic zone
• Precision nitrogen management
58

59. Conclusion
 Industrialized countries are more responsible for threat of
climate change.
 Rice yield decreased by about 0.75 t ha-1 in efficient
cropping zones and 0.06 t ha-1 in coastal regions.
 Reduction of yield of rainfed cotton (59.96%), wheat
(48.68%), sorghum (43.03%), groundnut (34.09%) and
maize (14.09%) respectively due to climate change.
 By adapting mitigation strategies can minimize the negative
impacts of climate change.
59

60. Future line of work
 Need greater research, policy and financial support for
mitigating climate change.
 Development of germplasm and agronomic management
practices to over come climate change impact.
 The future research strategies should focus on developing
the technology or methods to reduce the emission of
greenhouse gases into atmosphere.
 The detailed studies are needed to quantify the effects and
interactions of CO2 and temperature on field crops.
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