This document discusses the complex interactions between climate change, land use change, and their effects on water resources and aquatic ecosystems. It notes that as the climate warms and becomes wetter in New England, precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns will be altered, impacting water availability and streamflow. Increased development leads to higher peak flows and lower base flows in streams due to changes in infiltration and groundwater recharge. Forested watersheds help sustain streamflow during dry periods through subsurface water storage and release. The interactions between climate, land use, and hydrologic processes present challenging questions regarding their relative impacts on water systems over time.

1. Climate Change Effects
on Water Resources
and Aquatic Ecosystems
Paul K. Barten, Ph.D., Professor, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Adapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change – Nat. Inst. of Applied Climate Science
Antioch University, Keene, New Hampshire – April 4, 2017
Climate change?
Inter-annual variability?
Land use effects?
Forest influences?
Relative effects?
Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]

3. Conceptual diagram:
Brianne Walsh (Univ. of Maryland),
Toni Lynn Morelli (USGS/UMass/NECSC),
Paul Barten (UMass)

5. Wolf River, Menominee Reservation, WI
(Satterlund and Adams, 1992)
GCMs forecast warmer, wetter
conditions in New England
P - ET - Q ±∆S = 0
or Q ≈ P - ET ±∆S
P - (E + T + I) - (QOF + QSSF + QGW)
±∆ (SSNOW + SSOIL + SWETLANDS + SLAKES
+ SSTREAMS + SBIOMASS) ± L ± ε = 0
…terrain, land use, flow routing, energy
balance, inter-annual variability of climate

12. Trees are highly evolved, adaptable organisms—not passive wicks.

13. Nelson Brook Weir
2008 to present
USGS 01174500
EAST BRANCH SWIFT RIVER
NEAR HARDWICK, MA
1937 to present

14. Quabbin Reservoir - April 1989
-18.5 ft., 68% of storage capacity
Photo: Clif Read (MA DWSP)
Climate change?
Inter-annual variability?
Land use change?
Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]

15. Quabbin Reservoir
October 1966
61% Capacity
MA DCR Archives
February and March 1967 …45% Capacity

16. 0
20
40
60
80
100
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133
%ReservoirCapacity
Year
Jan 1963 - Jan 1974
Jan 1984 - Jan 1995
Jan 2013 - Feb 2017
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Paul K. Barten, UMass Amherst
DROUGHT EMERGENCY STAGE 1
DROUGHT WARNING
…2017?

17. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
1963 1964 1965 1966 1967
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MeanMonthlyDischarge,ft3/sec
EastBranchSwiftRiver,Hardwick,MA
Oct 2009 – Sep 2010
ƩQ (mm) %
1964 360 71
2010 510 -

18. Dr. Emery Boose
Senior Investigator
Information Manager

19. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Nelson Brook - Harvard Forest
East Branch Swift River - USGS
Meandailydischarge(mm/day)
1 Oct-30 Nov 2009 7 Apr-7 Jun 2010
P – ET – Q ±ΔS = 0
AET ≈ P – Q (water year, ΔS → 0)
Precipitation (P) 1,095 mm
Water yield (Q) 510 mm
Est. Actual ET (P-Q) 585 mm
Nelson Brook Q = 509 mm
E.B. Swift River Q = 510 mm
r = 0.96
0
50
100
150
200
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

20. 0
10
20
30
40
50
Instantaneousdischarge(liters/second)
Nelson Brook Weir: 1 October-30 November 2009 …15 minute interval data

21. 0
5
10
15
20
Instantaneousdischarge(liters/second) Nelson Brook Weir: 7 April-7 June 2010 …15 minute interval data

22. Atmosphere
↑↓
Forest
↑↓
Tree
↑↓
Leaf
↑↓
Stomata
↑↓
Xylem &
phloem
↑↓
Roots
↑↓
Soil
Soil–Plant–AtmosphereContinuum
Trees are highly evolved, adaptable
organisms—not passive wicks. Spencer Woodlot
Conway, Mass.

23. 0
5
10
15
20
Instantaneousdischarge(liters/second) Nelson Brook Weir: 7 April-7 June 2010 …15 minute interval data

24. 0
1
2
3
4
MT MT MT MT MT MT
42 28 49
(W/m2)
PAR
336 mm
Rain

25. Climate change?
Inter-annual variability?
Land use change?
Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]

26. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
12/1/2009 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010
SnowWaterEquivalent(mm)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
12/1/2009 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010
Discharge(mm/day)
Climate change?
Inter-annual variability?
Land use change?
Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]

30. Climate change?
Inter-annual variability?
Land use effects?
Forest influences?
Relative effects?
Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]

31. Civil and Environmental Engineering Department
Syracuse University
The interacting hydrologic responses to changing climate, watershed physical
characteristics, river regulation, and land development in the northeastern
United States
PhD Dissertation
Rouzbeh Berton
May 2017
Berton, R., C.T. Driscoll, P.K. Barten, and J.L. Campbell. (in preparation)
Climate change and land use effects on streamflow discharge and timing.

33. Sub-watershed % Forest % Developed % Other
18 - Shawsheen 17 73 10
19 - Smith 87 4 9
20 - Squannacook 76 10 14
Hubbard
Brook

34. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Rain
Discharge
a) Smith (ID: 19, forest-average HyC)
F1
F2
F3
F4

35. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Rain
Discharge
b) Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban-average HyC)
S1 S2 S3
S4 S5
S6

36. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Rain
Discharge
c) Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban-average HyC)
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
U6

37. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Rain
Discharge
a) Smith (ID: 19, forest-dry HyC)
F12
F13
F14
F15
F20
F18
F17
F16
F19

38. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Rain
Discharge
b) Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban-dry HyC)
S14
S15
S16
S17 S20S19
S18

39. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Rain
Discharge
c) Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban-dry HyC)
U15
U16
U17
U18
U19
U20 U21
U22

40. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Smith(ID:19,forest)
Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)
a) Cumulative double mass curve (WY 1970, average HyC)
1:1
Cumulative discharge (mm)
S1-F1
S2-F2
S3-F3Forest
vs
Suburban
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Smith(ID:19,forest)
Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
b) Cumulative double mass curve (WY 1970, average HyC)
1:1
Cumulative discharge (mm)
U1-F1
U3-F2
U4-F3
U2-F4
Forest
vs
Urban
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Squannacook(ID:20,suburb)
Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
c) Cumulative double mass curve (WY 1970, average HyC)
1:1
Cumulative discharge (mm)
U1-S1
U6-S6
U2-S4
U5-S5
Suburban
vs
Urban
Sub-watershed % Forest % Developed % Other
18 - Shawsheen 17 73 10
19 - Smith 87 4 9
20 - Squannacook 76 10 14
Flow regime changes when impervious surfaces >5 to 10%.

41. 0
5
10
15
20
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Dailydischarge(mm/day)
Exceedence probability (%)
a) Flow duration curve (WY 1970, average HyC)
Smith (ID: 19, forest)
Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)
Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Dailydischarge(mm/day)
Exceedence probability (%)
c) Flow duration curve (WY 1989, dry HyC)
Smith (ID: 19, forest)
Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)
Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
On average, as urbanization progresses:
high flows get higher and low flows get lower.
Forests help to sustain streamflow
during dry years via infiltration,
subsurface flow, and deeper
groundwater flow paths.

42. 0
25
50
75
100%ofcumulativeannualdischarge a) Flow distribution curve (WY 1970, average HyC)
Smith (ID: 19, forest)
Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)
Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
0
25
50
75
100
%ofcumulativeannualdischarge
c) Flow distribution curve (WY 1989, dry HyC)
Smith (ID: 19, forest)
Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)
Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
Forests delay and de-synchronize
snowmelt.
Infiltration, subsurface flow, and
groundwater flow paths also
increase travel times to streams,
rivers, lakes, and reservoirs.

43. 2013
Climate change
Inter-annual variability
Land use effects
Inter-related processes
Complex questions