Maria Janowiak (of Forest Service and NIACS), presented at the Adapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change Workshop, at Antioch University New England, Keene, NH on April 4-5, 2017. The workshop was hosted by the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS), USDA Climate Hubs, and Trout Unlimited. Details at www.forestadaptation.org/water.

1. Climate Change:
Effects on New England’s Forests
Maria Janowiak
April 4, 2017
Water Initiative
Northeast Workshop

2. Partnerships
Vulnerability Assessment
Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Demonstrations
Climate Change Response Framework
Components: Progress:
125+ partner organizations
(and counting)
8 published assessments,
1 in prep
Published in 2012,
2nd edition in 2016,
& online workbook
200+ demonstrations
underway
Structured, process oriented, works on multiple scales
www.forestadaptation.org

3. www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Vulnerability Assessment
• Series of reports for natural
resource professionals
• Focus on tree species and
forest ecosystems
• Examine a range of future
climates
• Evaluate key ecosystem
vulnerabilities to climate change
• Does not make
recommendations or assess
vulnerability to changes in
mgmt., land use, policy

4. New England & Northern New York
• Synthesize existing literature and climate change
assessments
• Incorporate new results from models projecting
forest response to climate change
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment

5. Vulnerability Assessment Contents
• Current Forest Condition
• Observed Climate Change
• Future Climate Change
• Climate Change Impacts
on Forests
• Forest Ecosystem
Vulnerability
• Implications for Forest
Management
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Climate Change Tree Atlas: suitable habitat
LINKAGES: species establishment
LANDIS: productivity and composition

6. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Increased disturbance
from extreme events
 Heavy precipitation
 Flooding
 Ice storms
 Heat waves/droughts
 Wind storms
 Hurricanes
“Events” are very
difficult to predict
VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner,
Cambridge
Fire Dept.
NOAA

7. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
It’s like the
weatherman is saying
there’s a 50% chance
of rain tomorrow.
More Precipitation
Less Precipitation
June-October
Figure: Lynch et al. 2016

8. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.
Precipitation

9. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
PrecipitationWater loss from trees
(transpiration)

10. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Groundwater
recharge
PrecipitationWater loss from trees
(transpiration)
Runoff
 Extreme events increase runoff

11. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.
 Extreme events increase runoff
 Warmer temperatures dry air & soils
Result: Risk of moisture stress & drought
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation

12. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.

13. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.
2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High
Current Distribution
Importance Value
Low
High
Suitable Habitat: Red Spruce

14. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.
Basal Area: Red Spruce

15. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.
= species X
suitable habitat
50% Reduction in Habitat:
Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain

16. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.
What really matters:
 Local conditions
 Competition
 Management
 Disturbance

17. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Interactions make all
the difference.
 Chronic stress
 Disturbances
 Invasive species
 Insect pests
 Forest diseases
Image: Bartlett Tree Experts
Drought
Injury
Pests and
Disease

18. Generally Challenges
• Reduced growth from
moisture stress
• Decline of northern &
boreal species
• Disturbance from
extreme events
• Wildfire potential
• Forests pests & disease
• Invasive species
Generally Opportunities
• Increased productivity:
longer growing season
• Increased productivity:
more CO2
• Increased habitat for
some species
Depends on
SITE and OBJECTIVES!
Effects on Forests
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment

19. Last Slide: Location, Location, Location
Research and assessments describe broad
trends but local conditions and management
make the difference.

20. Thank you!
Maria Janowiak
mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us