Presentation by Dr. Jerry Hatfield for the Climate Change and Midwest Agriculture: Impacts, Challenges, & Opportunities workshop held by the USDA Midwest Climate Hub on March 1-2, 2016.

1. Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation

2. Jerry L. Hatfield
Laboratory Director
National Laboratory for Agriculture and the
Environment
Director, Midwest Climate Hub
2110 University Blvd
Ames, Iowa 50011
515-294-5723
515-294-8125 (fax)
jerry.hatfield@ars.usda.gov

3.  Building soil organic matter, such as by minimum/conservation
tillage; Note: Soil OM is third largest carbon pool on earth;
 Integrated nutrient management practices, such as green
manures, planting of legumes, livestock manure.
 Increase water and nitrate use efficiency, irrigation, water
harvesting;
 Improve livestock management practices,
grassland management, land restoration,
and apply agro forestry.
BETTER SOIL ANDWATER MANAGEMENT
PRACTICES ARE KEY

4.  Inputs
 Temperature
 Precipitation
 Solar radiation
 Carbon dioxide
Direct
Growth
Phenology
Yield
Indirect
Insects
Diseases
Weeds
Soil is the underlying factor as a resource
for nutrients and water

5.  Climate disruptions have increased in past 40
years and projected to increase over the next 25
years. By mid-century and beyond, these
impacts will be increasingly negative on most
crops and livestock.
 Many agricultural regions will experience
declines in crop and livestock production from
increased stress due to weeds, diseases, insect
pests, and other climate change induced
stresses.

6. Lobell et al. 2011 Science 333:616-620

7. Story Co Corn
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yield(buacre
-1
)
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Actual Yield
Attainable Yield
Yield Gap

8. Christian Co Corn
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yield(buacre
-1
)
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Actual Yield
Attainable Yield
Yield Gap

9. Soybean Story Co Iowa
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yield(buacre
-1
)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Actual Yield
Attainable Yield
Yield Gap

10. Christian Co Soybean
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yield(buacre
-1
)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Actual Yield
Attainable Yield
Yield Gap

11. Iowa Maize Story County
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yield(kgha
-1
)
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Attainable Yield
Actual Yield
Yield Gap
Iowa Maize Story County
Fraction of Attainable Yield
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
CumulativeFrequency
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0

12. Corn Hybrid RX730
Days after Planting
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
TotalCollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid DK 61-72
Days after Planting
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
TotalCollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid XL45A
Days after Planting
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
TotalCollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Rhizotron study with warm chamber 4C warmer than normal chamber
with simulation of Ames IA temperature patterns.
2139 13700 0 7323 2168 12962 kg ha-1

13. Corn Hybrid RX730
Days after Planting
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
TotalCollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid DKC61-72
Days after Planting
20 40 60 80 100 120
TotalCollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid XL45A
Days after Planting
20 40 60 80 100 120
TotalCollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Rhizotron study with warm chamber 4C warmer than normal chamber
with simulation of Ames IA temperature patterns.
599 4711 342 3053 0 4197 kg ha-1

14. Corn Hybrid RX730
Days after Planting
20 40 60 80 100 120
CumulativeLeafArea(cm
2
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid DK 61-72
Days after Planting
20 40 60 80 100 120
CumulativeLeafArea(cm
2
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid XL45A
Days after Planting
20 40 60 80 100 120
CumulativeLeafArea(cm
2
)
0
2000
4000
6000
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid DKC61-72
Days after Planting
20 40 60 80 100 120
CumulativeLeafArea(cm
2
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid XL45A
Days after Planting
20 40 60 80 100 120
CumulativeLeafArea(cm
2
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid RX730
Days after Planting
20 40 60 80 100 120
CumulativeLeafArea(cm
2
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
First Run
Second Run

15. Mishra and Cherkauer, 2010

16.  Current loss and degradation of critical soil and
water assets due to increasing extremes in
precipitation will continue to challenge both
rainfed and irrigated agriculture unless
innovative conservation methods are
implemented
 The rising incidence of weather extremes will
have increasingly negative impacts on crop and
livestock productivity because critical thresholds
are already being exceeded

17. Mean NCCPI
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
CountyYield(gm-2
)
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
Kentucky
Iowa
Nebraska
Kentucky
(Double crop)Y = 131.187 + 187.458X. r2
= 0.72***
Soybean yields
across Iowa,
Kentucky, and
Nebraska
Climate resilience is derived from good soils in rainfed agricultural systems

18. NCCPI-AG
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
MeanCountyYield(gm-2
)
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Kentucky
Iowa
Y = 436.096 + 478.149X, r2 = 0.58***

20. Corn 2010-2012
Total Season
Intercepted PAR (MJ m-2
)
650 700 750 800 850 900 950
GrainYield(kgha-1
)
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
2010
2011
2012
Corn 2010-2012
Grain-filling
Intercepted PAR (MJ m-2
)
250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650
GrainYield(kgha-1
)
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
2010
2011
2012

21.  Agriculture has been able to adapt to recent
changes in climate; however, increased
innovation will be needed over the next 25
years.
 Climate change effects on agriculture will
have consequences for food security, both in
the US and globally, through changes in crop
yields and food prices and effects on food
processing, storage, transportation, and
retailing.

24. 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 5 10 15 20
July-AugustPrecipitation(in)
May-June Precipitation (in)
Spring and Summer Rainfall- Ohio
1895-1980
1981-2013
Dry Spring
Wet Summer
Wet Spring
Wet Summer
Dry Spring
Dry Summer
Wet Spring
Dry Summer

25. 2008
2010
2011
2012 2013
0
5
10
15
20
0 5 10 15 20
July-AugustPrecipitation(in)
May-June Precipitation (in)
Spring and Summer Rainfall- Illinois
1895-1980
1981-2013
Dry Spring
Wet Summer
Wet Spring
Wet Summer
Dry Spring
Dry Summer
Wet Spring
Dry Summer

26. 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
5
10
15
20
0 5 10 15 20
July-AugustPrecipitation(in)
May-June Precipitation (in)
Spring and Summer Rainfall- Minnesota
1895-1980
1981-2013
Dry Spring
Wet Summer
Wet Spring
Wet Summer
Dry Spring
Dry Summer
Wet Spring
Dry Summer

29. Organic Matter (%)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
AvailableWaterContent(%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Data Points
Sand, AWC = 3.8 + 2.2 OM
Silt Loam, AWC = 9.2 + 3.7 OM
Silty clay loam, AWC = 6.3 + 2.8 OM
Degrading the soil resource
decreases the water holding
capacity
Hudson, 1994

30. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Precipitation(in)
Annual Precipitation- Minnesota
Annual
Spring Annual
Summer Annual
Linear (Annual)
Linear (Spring Annual)
Linear (Summer Annual)

31. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Precipitation(in)
Annual Precipitation- Iowa
Annual
Spring Annual
Summer Annual
Linear (Annual)
Linear (Spring Annual)
Linear (Summer Annual)

32. 14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Precipitation(in)
Minnesota Precipitation: 1901-2010
30 Year Mean
Annual Mean
Min Limit
Max Limit

34. Midwest Corn Production
Year
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
TotalClaims
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Excessive Moisture/Precipitation
Drought
Frost

35. Midwest Soybean Crop Insurance
Year
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
TotalInsuranceClaims
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
InsurancePayouts($)
0.0
2.0e+8
4.0e+8
6.0e+8
8.0e+8
1.0e+9
1.2e+9
1.4e+9
1.6e+9
1.8e+9
Total Claims
Total Dollars in Claims

36. Projected
changes in
key climate
variables
affecting
agricultural
productivity
National Climate Assessment

39. 54.8
55.2
55.6
56
56.4
56.8
57.2
57.6
58
58.4
58.8
59.2
59.6
60
60.4
60.8
61.2
61.6
62
62.4
62.8
63.2
63.6
64
64.4
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
MaxTemperature(F)
Iowa MaxTemperature: 1901-2010
30 Year Mean
Annual Mean
Min Limit
Max Limit

40. 33.2
33.6
34
34.4
34.8
35.2
35.6
36
36.4
36.8
37.2
37.6
38
38.4
38.8
39.2
39.6
40
40.4
40.8
41.2
41.6
42
42.4
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
MinTemperature(F)
Iowa MinTemperature: 1901-2010
30 Year Mean
Annual Mean
Min Limit
Max Limit

42.  How cold does it get in the wintertime?
 Was it warm before the cold spell occurred?
 In the springtime when fruit crops start to grow, when
gardeners are planting, farmers start to plant corn –
like to know a month beforehand if the temperature
was going to get below 20F or 25F and for how long
 Fall:
▪ When harvesting freeze tender crops – what is the chance for
a freeze in the next week?
▪ If growing hops and it freezes, the harvest is over in 24 hours

43.  Prediction of dew point temps at night, In terms of cooling
animals, it’s not how high during the day but how much it cools
off at night, as well as the high dew points
 When the animals can’t cool off at night, that’s problematic
 The only technique currently to effectively cool animal housing
is by sprinkling – which is useless when the dew points are
already high (they don’t have air conditioning)
 Heat stress is the most important for livestock
▪ For dairy, there is heat stress above 65F
▪ It is difficult to cool big birds with large feathers
 Other issues
▪ When livestock producers lose electrical power, they have minutes to
do something or you have dead animals
▪ Transport of animals during summer requires special attention to
temperature and humidity conditions to ensure safe transport.

44.  Has the range changed with the changing
climate?
 Will within season weather affect the
dynamics of pests and disease populations?
 Can we develop more effective prediction
tools?

45.  Linked together to protect and enhance the
natural resources of soil, water, and air
 The goal is to integrate information to deliver
solutions to producers through a variety of
outlets