Michael Simpson (Antioch University New England, Center for Climate Preparedness and Community Resilience) presented at the Adapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change Workshop, at Antioch University New England, Keene, NH on April 4-5, 2017. The workshop was hosted by the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS), USDA Climate Hubs, and Trout Unlimited.

1. Center for Climate Preparedness and
Community Resilience
Mission: Strengthen communities to prepare, respond and
recover in the face of climate impacts and other disruptions
through collaborative, innovative solutions.
www.communityresilience-center.org

2. Eastern Regional Climate Change
Preparedness Conference
Save the Date
May 1-3, 2018 Manchester NH
http://localsolutions2018.org/

3. Sponsored by:
Financing Climate Change Solutions
Weathering Change:
Local Solutions for Strong
Communities
April 13, 2017 12:00 – 1:15 PM EST
Although there is widespread agreement on the need to prepare for the changing climate, there is no clear
consensus on how much it will cost, or how communities will pay for it. This webinar will address financial
support for emergency preparedness and longer range adaptation planning and will include:
• An update on the rapidly changing costs of insurance;
• How to best navigate the complexities of damage payments;
• Tips about existing funds that can be tapped to support current efforts; and
• How a community might think out-of-the-box to mitigate future costs.
Jessica Grannis, Georgetown Climate Center
Stephanie Benfield Stuckey, Chief Resilience Officer for
the City of Atlanta
Moderator, Rafaela Moura, Senior Energy and Climate
Change Advisor – EPA Region IV

4. Download the report at
http://www.communityresilience-center.org

5. Michael Simpson
Center for Climate Preparedness
and Community Resilience
A Review of Climate Trends
That Impact Forested Watersheds
Antioch University
April 4, 2017
• What is Happening
• What to Expect
• Some Implications for
Riparian Corridors

6. What Is Happening

7. Annual US Average Temperature
1900-2008
Burakowski & Wake 2008

9. Wake 2013
Southern NH

10. Northeast Winter Temperature Trends
1965-2008
Burakowski & Wake 2008

11. Mean Temperature + 2.5 oF
Max Temperature + 2.7 oF
Min Temperature + 2.3 oF
Snowfall - 9 inches
Snow on Ground - 9 days
Trends in Winter Climate in the Northeast US
Burakowski et al., 2008

12. Average Ice Out Day Trend 1925-2005
(27 Lakes)
Ice Out data from Hodgkins et al., 2002 and at: http://me.water.usgs.gov/iceout.html
90
100
110
120
130
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
IceOut(JulianDay)
Year
4.5 days earlier over 81 years
8.0 days earlier over 36 years

13. Winter/Spring (1 Jan - 31 May)
Center-of-Volume Dates
All data from unregulated rivers; Hodgkins et al., 2003

14. Increase in Average Precipitation
1958 - 2012
NCA 3 2014

15. Historic Increase in Heavy Precipitation
NCA 3 2014
1958 - 2012

16. Source: National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Wake, 2008

17. Indicators of Climate Change in the
Northeast US over the last 30-40 yrs
• Winter warming
• Decreased snowfall
• Fewer days with snow on ground
• Lake ice out dates earlier
• More frequent extreme precipitation
Hodgkins et al., 2002; 2003; Wolfe et al., 2005;
Wake and Markham, 2005; Wake et al., 2006; Burakowski & Wake 2008
• Earlier spring runoff

18. What is “Likely”
Frumhoff et al. 2007

19. Scenarios of Possible Futures:
Representative Concentration Pathways

20. A Changing Climate

21. Six gridpoints
proximate to
study areas in NH
were used to
transfer the
expected change
in precipitation
from the GCM to
Sunapee and
regional stations
Syntectic Int’l, 04/07

22. Syntectic Int’l, 2007
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1 10 100 1,000
Return period (years)
Intensity(cm/24-hrs)
Actual Estimate 'A' Estimate 'B'
Intensity/return-period curve, 1971-2000
Validate downscaling
24-hr, 25-year precip.

23. Wake, 2010

24. NCA3 2014

25. Wake 2013

26. Wake 2013

27. Frumhof et al. 2007
Area With at Least 30 Days of Snow Cover
(high emissions (2070-2100)

28. Hayhoe et al 2006
Frequency of Annual Droughts of Varying Length
Number of droughts/30 years

29. Projected Increase Probability of
Extreme Rainfall Events
NCA 3 2014

30. Frumhoff et al. 2007

31. Ivesrson et al. 2008
Shifting Habitats

32. Carex lenticularis
(lakeshore sedge)
Rumex pallidus
(seaside dock)
Southern-most Range
Thuja Occidentalis
(northern white cedar)

33. Myriophyllum aquaticum
(parrotfeather)
Pueraria lobata
(Kudzu)
What may be coming your way…or is already here
Microstegium vimineum
(stiltgrass)

34. Design
Rainfall
Amounts
(inches)
Percentage
Chance of
Annual Rainfall
Return Period
(year storm)
2.50 100% 1
2.80 40% 2.5
3.60 20% 5
3.80 13.33% 7.5
4.10 10% 10
4.80 4% 25
5.40 2% 50
5.70 1.33 % 75
6.00 1% 100
Return Period and Probability

35. Return period
(years) Recent climate
mid-21st cent.
Optimistic
mid-21st cent.
Moderate
mid-21st cent.
Pessimistic
2.5 2.5 2.84 3.3 6.86
5 3.17 3.47 4.11 8.4
7.5 3.57 3.88 4.66 9.39
10 3.86 4.19 5.1 10.13
25 4.84 5.28 6.74 12.75
50 5.67 6.22 8.31 15.03
75 6.2 6.82 9.39 16.5
100 6.59 7.27 10.23 17.59
Oyster River Basin Study
Return Period : Current and Future
9% 32% 163%
Simpson 2009

36. Precipitation(in.)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Return period (years)
1 10 100 1000
Precipitation intensity-frequency relationship (24-hour duration)
Recent ('71-'00)
mid-21st pessimistic
The future 25 year storm event will have the amount of
precipitation of a historic 750 year storm event
Simpson & Stack 2011

37. Increased Frequency of Flooding
2005
2007
2006

39. Of 16 largest events
since 1934:
• 13 have occurred in
last 25 years
• 10 have occurred in
last 15 years
• 8 have occurred in
last 7 years
Highest Daily Discharge
Lamprey River near Newmarket since 1934
Roseen 2012

40. Lamprey River 100 Year Flood Risk Project

41. Current Newmarket 100 Year Floodplain
Wake, Rosseen & Simpson 2012

42. Obligates
Fac Wet
Facultative
Fac Up
Upland

44. Precipitation(in.)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Return period (years)
1 10 100 1000
Precipitation intensity-frequency relationship (24-hour duration)
Recent ('71-'00)
mid-21st pessimistic
25 year historic amount will come with 2-year frequency
Simpson & Stack 2011

47. US EPA

48. Rosgen 1993

49. Lake Sunapee watershed: Delineated catchments

50. Drainage system:
Current Capacity

51. Field Data Collection
210 road crossings

52. What Happens with Increased Flow at Road Crossings

53. Coastal NH - May 2006

54. Lake Sunapee watershed:
Spatial impact of undersized
culverts
Mid-21st projected 25-yr storm:
35% of culverts undersized

55. A Changing Landscape

56. Recent conditions
With population growth And more
extreme rainfall
Drainage system adequacy
Trans = transitional

57. SIZEOFIMPACT
TIME
2100Present
pessimistic
optimistic

58. SIZEOFIMPACT
TIME
2100Present

59. SIZEOFIMPACT
TIME
2100Present
monitor
monitor
monitor
monitor
Plan
Plan
Plan
Plan