The Research staff analyzes the week's key data releases and tell you what they mean for you and your business.

1. Week of November 1–November 5, 2010
Produced by NAR Research

2. Weekly Economic Forecast
Indicator Updated
Forecast
Past Week’s
Forecast
Directional
Shift
GDP 2010 Q4: 2.6% 2.6% ↔
GDP 2011 Q1: 2.5% 2.5% ↔
GDP 2011 Q2: 2.3% 2.2% ↑
Unemployment rate by mid-
2011:
9.4% 9.5% ↓
Average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate by mid-2011:
4.8% 4.9% ↓
NAR's monthly official forecast as of November 5
Produced by NAR Research

3. Monday, 11/01/10
• Personal income and outlays
figures for September were
released this morning. In that
report, disposable personal
incomes eased slightly, 0.2%, after
gaining 0.4% in August.
• Consumer spending decelerated
to a gain of 0.2% in September,
after a 0.5% jump in August.
Sales of durable goods led
consumer spending by growing
0.7%. The PCE inflation index, a
measure of growth in prices
similar to the consumer price
index, rose just 0.1%.
• The ISM manufacturing index
gained in October, up a solid 2.5
points to 56.9. Orders,
production, and employment all
rose, but a 7.8 point surge in new
orders pushed the index further
above the critical 50 mark, an
indication that this sector is
expanding. Employment rose 1.2
points to 57.7.
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

4. Monday, 11/01/10 (cont’d)
• Construction spending rose 0.5%
from August to September.
Residential construction rose 1.8%
from August, while non-residential
slipped 1.6%. Public sector
construction rose 1.3% from
August to September.
• Income growth remains sluggish,
but demand for goods was solid.
The improved demand for
manufactured goods and
residential home construction are
positive signs for the labor market.
• Echoing this trend was the upward
movement of employment in the
manufacturing sector.
• Employment and confidence are
critical to a sustained economic
recovery. While today’s reading is
not an overwhelming sign, it is a
move in the right direction.
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

5. Tuesday, 11/02/10
• No data was released today.
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

6. Wednesday, 11/03/10
• Mortgage purchase applications were up
1.4 percent for the week ending October
29th
. Purchase applications do not take
into consideration cash buyers who
according to the August REALTORS®
Confidence Index make up as much as 28
percent of transactions.
• Mortgage purchase applications were
down 28.5 percent from the same week a
year ago.
• Refinances, which made up 81.3 percent
of mortgage activity, fell 6.4 percent as
mortgage rates inched up to 4.28 percent
on a 30-year fixed mortgage.
• Private sector employment grew 43,000
in October, slightly more than expected,
according to the ADP national
employment report. While growth is
good, more jobs need to be created to
bring down unemployment (see this brief
commentary for more details). Friday’s
data from the Labor Department should
provide a clearer picture on October’s
employment numbers.
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

7. Thursday, 11/04/10
• Last week’s initial jobless claims data
suggest to continued swings in the labor
market. The initial claims jumped
20,000 to 457,000 after two weeks of
declines. The 4-week moving average
also moved up 2,000 claims to 456,000.
Falling below 400,000 would indicate
improvement in the job market.
Continued claims fell, though, by
42,000 to the lowest level since
November 2008. The largest increase in
initial claims came from California due
to layoffs in the forestry, fishing and
agriculture industries, while the largest
decrease was in Kentucky and Florida.
Jobs report for October is coming out
tomorrow.
• In the productivity and costs report also
released today, productivity in the third
quarter is showing to be rebounding
due to output growth and slight
decrease in per unit labor costs. The
improvement in productivity mostly
reflected growth in nonfarm business
sector, but productivity in
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

8. Friday, 11/05/10
• In October, 151,000 jobs were added.
Since December 2009, payroll
employment has risen by 874,000.
• Temporary help services add 35,000 jobs
in October. Since, September of 2009,
temporary help has added 451,000 jobs.
Companies often hire temporary help
before they add permanent
employment.
• Health care, hospitality, mining
and retail employment, including auto
dealerships and appliance stores also
saw gains in employment in October.
• The unemployment rate is unchanged at
9.6 percent.
• Pending Home Sales numbers were
released today. For the press release,
please click here >
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research