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Eye on the Economy: October 29, 2014
1. Eye on the Economy
Builder Confidence Adjusts as Sales and Starts Hold
Steady
October 29, 2014
eyeonhousing.org
2. Housing Market Index 2
•Housing Market Index fell to 54 points in
October
• Fell from a level of 59 in August
•More builders still view the market
favorably
•HMI reading is consistent with long-run
improving trends
• Read more here
3. Housing Starts 3
•Housing construction in September
rebounded
•Pace of total housing starts rose
above 1 million
• Third time this year
•Single-family starts rose 3.4% over Q2
•Multifamily construction starts
increased 5% over Q2
• Read more here
4. New Home Sales 4
•September new home sales held
steady
•September had an annual rate of
467,000 sales
• Highest pace since July 2008
•Third Quarter finished at a rate of
446,000
• 4.4% over Q2
• Read more here
5. Sources of Financing 5
•Growing market share for conventional
financing sources
•Seven percent of new home sales
were cash-based
• Read more here
6. Pending Home Sales Index 6
•Pending existing home sales
increased 0.3% in September
•PHSI increased to 105 last month
•Pending sales are up year-over-year
• Read more here
7. Existing Home Sales 7
•Existing home sales have increased
to highest level of the year
•Posted gains for the last six months
•Cash purchases have larger share of
existing home market
• Twenty-four percent in
September
• Read more here
8. Remodeling Market Index 8
•Remodeling Market Index rose to 57
in Q3
•Sixth consecutive quarter over 50
points
• Read more here
9. House Prices 9
•Case-Shiller House Price Index rose
by 5.1% year-over-year
•Twenty-eighth consecutive month of
year-over-year increases
• Prices have risen by 18%
over this period
• Read more here
10. Rising Rents & Falling Homeownership 10
•Rents have risen 1.5% above the
rate of inflation in the last 12 months
•Homeownership rate has fallen to
63.4% during the third quarter
• Nearing a 20-year low
• Read more here
• Read more here
11. Producer Price Index 11
•Price constrained market may put
pressure on builders
• Given the rising costs of
building
•Gypsum prices expected to increase
in 2015
• Will raise the price of drywall
• Read more here
12. Other Analysis 12
•The benefits of the Low-Income
Housing Tax Credit
•National lot sizes and prices
•Regional differences in new home
sales financing
•Water utility systems