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Reliable Financial
1Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Stock Portfolio Analysis
Prepared for: Client
Prepared by: Murtaza Maqbool Ahmed
Date: April 12th, 2015
Enjoy the fruits, leave the planting to your reliable partners!
Reliable Financial
2Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Hello Client,
Thank you for choosing Reliable Financial for yourinvestmentneeds. To help you understand the
performance ofyourportfolio better, in the observed period starting from January 15th,2015 to April 1st,
2015, I havecreated this Stock Portfolio Analysis report. This contents ofthis report include the overall
performance ofyourportfolio, description ofmajor events in the North American markets and
fundamental analysis ofthe best and worst performing stocks in the portfolio.
A total gain of 4.1%was achieved on the portfolio during the observed period. The S&P 500 Index return
was 3.36%, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index return was 6.42%. The best stock ofthe portfolio was
Suncor Energy Inc. while the worst stock was Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Toyota MotorCorporation provided
high returns throughout the observed period and gave a total gain of9.11%. McDonald’s performance was
slightly better than the overall market, despite many operational issues, and it gave a total return of
5.07%. Abbott Labs traded at $45.89at closeon April 1st, 2015 and provided a total gain of3.94%. Abbott
also declared a quarterly dividend of$0.24/share. Total dividends received during the observed period
were $299.3and CAD164.2. Abbott’s dividendof$180.55 will be received on May 15th, 2015.
Both Canadian and American stock markets suffered due to low oil prices.Canada’s oil-heavy economy is
due to lose CAD 7 .6 billion as a result. Bank of Canada reduced its overnight interest rate, which provided
good results for the financial sector. With crude oil selling as low as $47.38 in mid-January, the whole
market felt its negative effects. In late January, forecastfor a dangerous snowstorm dipped the market by
55 points. The market reached its record high of2100 points in mid-February. The March jobs report
suggested shortage ofskilled labor, which has resulted in big retailers like Wal-Mart and McDonald’s
increasing wages to keep their trained staff. A stronger dollar and uncertainty about Fed’s interestrate
hike are likely to cause problems in the future.
The best stock ofthe portfolio, Suncor Energy (TSX: SU.TO) was found to be overvalued in the
fundamental analysis. The high estimateprice ofCAD32.51 is lower than the April 1 st, 2015 price ofCAD
37 .25. OPEC’s record pumping ofoil has meant that Suncor’s earnings are unlikely to grow in the future.
Suncor’s best casescenario includes pipelineprojects like Keystone, East Energy and Northern Gateway
BC to be approved. The recommendation will be “Sell” for Suncor. The worst stock ofthe portfolio, Wal-
Mart Stores Inc. (NY SE:WMT) was found to be undervalued in the fundamental analysis. The low
estimate priceof$80.85 is higher than the last observed price of$80.69. A relative P/Eratio approach
was used to find the intrinsic valueofWal-Mart’s stock. With 40 new Canadian stores, outofwhich 11 are
already functioning, Wal-Mart can have a high EPS growth. Unfavorable foreign exchange rates,
improvement ofoverall customer experience and lawsuit by New Y ork’s Trinity Church are Wal-Mart’s
biggest challenges in the coming days. The recommendation will be “Buy” for Wal-Mart.
Thank you and have a great day!
Murtaza M Ahmed.
Reliable Financial
3Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Table of Contents
Description of Portfolio’s Performance................................................................................................ 4
Best and Worst Stocks .................................................................................................................... 4
Rest of the Portfolio........................................................................................................................ 4
Description of Major Events in American and Canadian Stock Markets ................................................. 5
American Stock Markets................................................................................................................. 5
Canadian Stock Markets ................................................................................................................. 5
Fundamental Analysis of Best Stock: Suncor Energy Inc....................................................................... 6
Introduction................................................................................................................................... 6
Analysis......................................................................................................................................... 6
Fundamental Analysis of Worst Stock: Wal-Mart Stores Inc.............................................................. 8
Introduction................................................................................................................................... 8
Analysis......................................................................................................................................... 8
Bibliography.................................................................................................................................... 10
Appendix A- Suncor’s P/E Ratio ........................................................................................................12
Appendix B- Wal-Mart’s P/E Ratio ....................................................................................................13
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4Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Description of Portfolio’s Performance
The performanceofthe portfolio was largely satisfactory compared to the overall performance ofthe
market. Total gain for all the stocks in the portfolio listed on NY SEwas 2.04%, while the S&P 500 index
improved by 3.36%during the 76 day period starting from January 15th, 2015 to April 1st, 2015 (Yahoo
Finance, 2015). The only stock listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, Suncor Energy Inc., outperformed
the market by more than 3%. The total gain on SU.TO was 9.69%, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index
increased by 6.42%only (Yahoo Finance, 2015). The overall gain on the portfolio was 4.01%.
Company Cost
Current
Price
High
Price
Low Price Gain %
Market
Gain %
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
(NYSE: WMT )
$87 .50 $80.7 1 $89.93 $80.69 -7 .7 6%
3.36%
McDonald's Corp.
(NYSE: MCD)
91.64 96.29 100.25 88.02 5.07 %
T oyota Motor
Corporation (NYSE:TM)
126.92 138.48 145.32 126.92 9.11%
Abbott Laboratories
(NYSE: ABT )
44.15 45.89 47 .83 43.41 3.94%
Suncor Energy Inc.
(T SX: SU.T O)
CAD
33.96
CAD 37 .25
CAD
39.25
CAD 33.96 9.69% 6.42%
Reliable FinancialPortfolio 4.01%
Best and Worst Stocks
WMT was the worst stock of the portfolio,currently tradedat $80.71. Total loss on its stock was 7 .76%
and $1552 (FINVIZ,2015). A dividend of$0.49/sharewas received on March 11th, accounting for $114
(Y ahoo Finance, 2015). The best stock ofthe portfolio was SU.TO, the Calgary -basedoil giant. Despite the
uncertainty in its market and OPEC not supporting oil prices, Suncor’s stock never droppedfrom its
initial cost price ofCAD33.96. A dividend of$0.28/share was paid on March 25 th, 2015 which accounted
for CAD 164.2 (Yahoo Finance, 2015).
Rest of the Portfolio
Toyota Motor Corporation’s stock fared great results since we purchased it, having traded as high as
$145.32 on March 23rd, 2015 and providing a 9.11%gain (FINVIZ, 2015). The demand ofToyota’s SUVs is
expected to rise significantly in the US this year (Dalavagas, 2015). Rising dollar prices have not affected
Toyota a lot due to its low exposure to USdollar comparedto Ford and GM. McDonald’s Corp. faced some
troubles with its suppliers in China and recorded poor sales in Q4 of 2014. With the change in top
management, investors seem optimistic for a better2015 (Spencer, 2015).A dividendof$0.85/share was
received on March 11th, accounting for $185.3. Abbott Laboratories soldits Markets specialty and Branded
generics business to Mylan Inc.for $5300 million on March 3rd, 2015 (Company News, 2015).Abbott’s
stock traded as high as $47.83and is currently tradedat $45.89.
Table 1-PortfolioPerformance
Sources: (YahooFinance,2015), (FINVIZ, 2015)
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5Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Description of Major Events in American and
Canadian Stock Markets
American Stock Markets
7 out of10 industries in the S&P 500 index saw a
decline in the week ending on January 17th, 2015,
as the index droppedby 1.2%(Lu Wang, 2015).
The drop in oil prices impactedthe overall market
bitterly, with crude oil selling as low as $47.38 in
mid-January. As oil prices started stabilizing
around early-February,investors showed interest
in energy stocks like Exxon, Suncor and Chevron.
The east coast prepared itselffor a lethal blizzard.
Luckily, no tragedies happened otherthan 5.5
centimeters ofsnow in New Y ork and surrounding
areas. The markets reacted to the anticipated snowstorm and the S&P 500 index dropped by 55 points in
2 days starting January 28 (Y ahoo Finance,2015). The news ofthe Greek debt impasse easing, along with
the improving oil prices erased earlierdeclines, as market reached its record high on February 17 (Bost,
2015) of2100 points. As companies declared theirQ4 earnings in mid-February and early-March,
investors showed more interest in the better-earning companies. Overall,an increase of4.2%in earnings
was witnessed. A spike of7.8%in new home sales was observed, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis
(Lehiff, 2015). The strongerdollarimpacted the exports as well as domestic production sector,which was
evident by the March jobs report. Big challenges due to currency rates are expected to line up for all
companies which have a high exposure to international currencies, like P&G and Wal-Mart.
Canadian Stock Markets
Canada’s economy faced a bigger dent due to the
low oil-prices. The S&P/TSX Composite Index
went as low as 14,041 points on January 15th, 2015.
Bank ofCanada reduced its overnight interest rate
to ease the impact oflower oil prices on January
21st, 2015 and the market return improved
immediately (Tilak, 2015). TD, RBC and the
overall financial sector, which impacts the market
index the most, showed signs ofimprovement in
early February as the market reached its two
months high (Y ahoo Finance, 2015). As
TransCanada beat market expectations in Q4 of 2014, confidence spurred in the energy sector with SU.TO
hitting CAD 38.80 in late February. Hudson Bay’s involvement in the real estatemarket spikedthe
market index by 63.80 points on February 23rd (Sharp, 2015). Strong USdollar did not impact the
resource-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index a lot. But, the oil- heavy economy is nearly stripped off by CAD
7 .6 billion due to low oil prices.
Figure1 -S&P5003-Month Price Chart
Source: YahooFinance, April2nd,2015
Figure2-S&P/TSXComposite Index 3-Month Price Chart
Source: YahooFinance, April2nd,2015
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6Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Fundamental Analysis of Best Stock: Suncor
Energy Inc.
Introduction
Calgary-based Suncor Energy Inc. was the best
stock ofthe portfolio, which experienced total
gains of 9.69%(Y ahoo Finance,2015). 587
shares ofthis stock were bought for the
portfolio at a cost ofCAD33.96/share. It traded
at CAD 37 .25 at close on April 1st, 2015 (Google
Finance, 2015). The lowest priceobserved for
SU.TO was its cost price while it traded as high
as CAD 39.25 during the last 3 months (Yahoo
Finance, 2015). A quarterly dividend on CAD
0.28 was declaredper share on February 4th,
2015 (www.suncor.com, 2015).
Analysis
A P/E ratio approach was used to find if Suncor’s stock is undervalued or overvaluedat CAD 37 .25. The
CAPM model was used to find the requiredrate ofreturn for this security while the dividend discount
model was incorporated to find the justified P/Eratio for Suncor.
The requiredrate ofreturn for Suncor, using the CAPMmodel was found to be 13.23%, the calculation for
which can be found in Appendix A.Considering that the Petroleum integratedcompany is a slightly risky
security, its beta was found to be 1.3 (FINVIZ, 2015).A 10 year Canadian bond yieldwas considered to be
the risk-free rate, as the time frame for T-bills and 30 year bonds are too short and too long respectively.
This risk-free rate was 1.32%(Bloomberg, 2015). The market return was found to be 10.48%by taking an
averagereturn for S&P/TSX Composite Index for the past 50 years (Shiller, 2015).
By using the data in Appendix A, Suncor’s sustainablegrowth rate was found to be 6.42%. An estimated
EPS ofCAD 1.96 was determined by multiplying the 2014 EPSvalue to the growth rate.
During the observed period,oil prices continued to stay low (Lu Wang, 2015). This did not help Suncor or
any other company in the Oil and gas sector.Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corporation haveposted record
lows since the 2008 correction (ValueLine Survey, 2015). But, there were a few positives for Suncor. On
February 9th,2015, Enbridge’s 9Bpipeline running from “North Westover to Montreal” was approved by
the National Energy Board (Enbridge, 2015). This should give an EPS growth increase of3%to Suncor.
Considering political and regulatory factors, Suncor is expected to have a few good years in the future. The
American Presidential elections to be held in 2016 would mean that Barack Obama, who is not fond of the
Keystonepipeline, will no longer be in the office. The Republicans are in majority in the Congress,and
have already approved the Keystonepipeline (News, 2015). The new President will likely not lock horns
with the Congress and Keystoneshouldbe approved, which will result in an EPS increase of2%for
Suncor. As Canada lines up for elections in 2015, the newly-electgovernment will adoptdrastic measures
Figure3-Suncor’s 3-Month Price Chart
Source: YahooFinance, April12,2015
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7Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
to improvethe economy and reduce budget deficit. This could result in some progress regarding pipelines
such as Energy East and Northern Gateway BC, which will result in an EPS increase of1%for Suncor.
Although,cost cutting does not suggest long-term progress, in recent times, only Suncor has been ableto
do it in the best possible way in the industry (Seidman,2015). On January 13th, 2015, Suncor announced
that it will cut CAD 1 billion from its annual budget to reduce it to CAD6.2 billion only. On April 1 st, 2015,
Suncor announced thatit is in line to realize CAD 600 million to CAD800 million in cost-cutting.Steve
Williams, Suncor’s CEO said, "We will continue to focus on reliable, safe and environmentally responsible
operations and delivering valueto shareholders."(www.suncor.com, 2015). This should increasetheir
EPS growth by 0.05%, resulting in a high estimate of12.47%or EPS of CAD 2.2.
On the contrary, it can be argued thatall ofSuncor’s eggs are in the pipeline basket. Ifplans for Keystone,
East Energy and Northern Gateway BCdo not materialize, then Suncor could see a decreasein EPS
growth by 3%. Especially,after the oil-spill in Vancouver’s English Bay on April 9th, 2015 (News 1130,
2015), authorities will be morestrict than everwhen it comes to pipelines. Saudi Arabia and OPEC have
continued to produce oil at an all-time high rate, to re-gain their marketshare from the USshale drillers
(Customs Today, 2015). This means that prices will continue to stay low, which would result in a decrease
in EPS growth by 3%. Suncor has stopped investing in most ofits new capital expansions, which means
that production is unlikely to grow. The will reduce EPS growth by 0.42%, resulting in in a low estimate of
0% or EPS ofCAD 1.84.
The average dividend payout ratio over the past fiveyears has been 25.51%. Suncor’s dividends have
grown significantly in the recent past,which is in line with company’s vision.The average dividendgrowth
rate overthe past five years has been 28.50%. Suncor’s expected payout ratio should be 30%, considering
that its dividend has grown consistently over the past 10 years (Seidman, 2015). With OPEC’s recordhigh
oil production, the required rateofreturn should be adjusted to 14.50%from 13.23%.
YEAR EPS DIVIDENDS PAYOUT RAT IO
2010 CAD 1.7 1 CAD 0.4 23.39%
2011 2.67 0.43 16.10%
2012 1.7 9 0.5 27 .93%
2013 2.6 0.7 3 28.08%
2014 1.84 1.02 55.43%
Average Payout Ratio 25.51%
Model Price (Price = Justified P/E ratio x Estimated EPS)
Low Estimate High Estimate
Justified P/E 2.07 14.7 8
Estimated EPS CAD 1.84 CAD 2.2
Price CAD 3.81 CAD 32.51
Source: Value Line Survey: January 29,2015
The high estimate for justified P/E ratio will be 14.78, while the low estimatefor justified P/Eratio will
give 2.07. This will result in a high price estimate ofCAD32.51, while a low price estimateofCAD 3.81,
which suggests that Suncor’s stock is overpriced at CAD37 .25 and gives a “Sell” signal.
Table 2-Suncor’s Payout Ratioand Model Price
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8Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Fundamental Analysis of Worst Stock:
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Introduction
Arkansas-based retail giant Wal-Mart Stores
Inc. experienced total loss of7 .76%during
the observed period.229 shares of this stock
were bought for the portfolio at a cost of
$87 .5/share (FINVIZ,2015). It tradedat
$80.71 at close on April 1st, 2015.The lowest
price observed for WMT was $80.69 while it
traded as high as $89.93 during the last 3
months (Y ahoo Finance, 2015).An annual
dividend on $1.96 was declared per shareon
March 10th,2015 (www.walmart.com,2015).
Analysis
The P/E ratio approachwas used to find if Wal-Mart’s stock was undervalued or overvalued. To estimatea
justified P/E ratio for Wal-Mart, its growth opportunities wereanalyzedand current P/Eratios of
comparablecompanies weretaken into consideration to determine ifthe currentP/Etruly represents
Wal-Mart’s value. The following chart depicts the currentP/Eratios ofWal-Mart, the Retail Store
Industry, the market index;S&P 500 and two comparable companies, Costco and Macy’s Inc. Although,
Target is the third biggest company in the industry,it was not considered for the analysis because ofits
recent financial bump, which will provideuninformative results.
P/E
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 16.17
Costco Wholesale 27 .5
Macy’s Inc. 13.9
Retail Stores Industry 25.4
S&P 500 19.44
The EPS growth ofWal-Mart in each ofthe last five years has been lower than both Costco Wholesale and
Macy’s, which can be found in Appendix B. As Costco’s P/Eratio is very close to the industry’s P/Eratio,
Costco’s growth rate of12.72%is a good guess for the industry. Considering that Wal-Mart’s averageEPS
growth rate is 6.58%(Spencer, 2015) which is only 52%ofCostco’s EPS growth rate, and Wal-Mart’s P/E
is nearly 0.63 times the industry ratio, a slightly lowerP/Eratio of 15.0 will be a better starting point for
the analysis.
Wal-Mart has been in the news over the observed period for wage-increase in many states in the US, cost-
cutting measures, opening ofnew Canadian stores and Target’s exit from Canada, which could be
Figure4-Wal-Mart’s 3-Month Price Chart
Source: YahooFinance, April9,2015
Sources: (YahooFinance,2015), (The Street,2015),(Value Line Survey, 2015)
Table 3-P/E Values of WMT, Competition and Market
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9Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
associated to Wal-Mart’s aggressive low pricing. On February 11th, 2015, Wal-Mart Canada announced
that it will open 29 supercenters and invest approximately CAD340 million for “supercenter, distribution
network, and e-commerce projects”(Pelletier,2015). This is in addition to the 11 supercenters it already
opened in January, 2015.This will result in an increase of1.0 to the P/E, considering that it will increase
Wal-Mart’s share in the Canadian market and further stamp its authority as the biggest retailer in the
world. Since Greg Foran became the CEO of Wal-Mart USA, which accounts for 60%ofWal-Mart’s sales,
a lot of emphasis has been given on improving customer experience and regaining Wal-Mart’s position as
the lowest-priceleader(D'Innocenzio,2015). This should improve the P/Eby 0.2. Although, increasing
wages will cost Wal-Mart a little bit, it will also mean that they will be able to retain their trained staffin a
highly competitive labor market, which is evident from the jobs report (Business Wire, 2015). This should
result in a 0.1 increase in P/E. The resulting high P/E would be 16.3.
On the contrary, Wal-Mart’s profits havebeen affected adversely becauseofunfavorable foreign exchange
rates. This will cause a decrease of0.1 to its P/E. 25%of Wal-Mart’s stores are in the oil-producing states
in the US. With tremendous amount oflayoffs in those states, people will likely not turn up to the stores
for unnecessary products (CNBC, 2015),which wouldhavean adverse effect to theirP/Eofabout 0.1. A
lawsuit filed by New Y ork’s Trinity church could affect Wal-Mart’s sales offirearms (Geier, 2015),which
could affect P/Eby another0.1. The resulting low P/Ewould be 14.7
Using the data in Appendix B to calculate Wal-Mart’s sustainablegrowth rate,an estimated EPS of $5.77
was determined by multiplying the 2014 EPS value to the growth rate.
If the new Canadian stores start generating profits, Wal-Mart could see an increasein EPS by $0.5. Also,
the new stores opened under Wal-Mart’s and Sam’s Club’s banners in Arkansas, Alabama,Tennessee,
Virginia, Utah, Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona and Texas couldresultin increased EPS of$0.35 (Value Line
Survey, 2015). Improvedinventory-keeping mechanisms and bettercustomerexperience could result in
$0.03 increase in EPS (Pelletier, 2015). A high estimatefor EPS can be expectedto be around $6.65.
On the other hand, start-up costs for the new Canadian stores could affect Wal-Mart’s profits. Therefore,
an EPS decrease of$0.15 could be expected. Unfavorable foreign exchange rates could result in an EPS
decreaseof$0.05. Wal-Mart has decidedto spend $1 billion to increasewages in 20 15. This should hardly
upset the company that posted $485.7 billion in revenuefor 2014.An EPS decreaseof$0.02 can be
expected. The retailer sells firearms in less than 50%ofits stores in the US which could result in an EPS
decreaseof$0.05. This low EPS could be then estimated around $5.5.
Model Price (Price = Justified P/E ratio x Estimated EPS)
Low Estimate High Estimate
Justified P/E 14.7 16.3
Estimated EPS $5.5 $6.65
Price $80.85 $108.4
A high estimate for Wal-Mart’s price was found to be $108.4,by multiplying the high estimates for EPS
and P/E ratio. Whereas, a low estimatefor Wal-Mart’s stock price was found to be $80.85.The range is
quite large, but it incorporates all positiveand negative impacts WMT could experiencein the future. A
current price of$80.71 tells that WMT is still undervalued and indicates a “Buy” signal.
Table 4-Wal-Mart’s Model Price
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10Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Bibliography
(2015). Retrievedfrom www.walmart.com.
(2015). Retrievedfrom www.suncor.com.
(2015, April 1). Retrieved from FINVIZ.
(2015). Retrievedfrom Y ahoo Finance:https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=WMT
(2015). Retrievedfrom Business Wire:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150219005629/en/Walmart-announces-Q4-
underlying1-EPS-1.61-additional#.VSsBo_lDt8E
(2015). Retrievedfrom Google Finance.
(2015). Retrievedfrom The Motley Fool.
(2015). Retrievedfrom Value Line Survey.
(2015). Retrievedfrom The Street.
(2015). Retrievedfrom Bloomberg:http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/
(2015). Retrievedfrom Enbridge:http://www.enbridge.com/ECRAI/Line9BReversalProject.aspx
(2015, April 9). Retrieved from News 1130:http://www.news1130.com/2015/04/09/oil-spill-at-english-
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(2015, April 13). Retrieved from Customs Today: http://customstoday.com.pk/saudi-arabia-produces-10-
3m-bpd-oil-in-march/
Bost, C. (2015, February 17). S&P 500 Just Broke 2,100 for the First Time. Retrieved from Bloomberg:
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deadlock-with-s-p-500-at-record
CNBC. (2015). Retailers feeling oil squeeze. Retrievedfrom Y ahoo Finance.
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price leader crown again.Retrieved from Yahoo Finance:
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164729942.html
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Industry Browser - Basic Materials Sector - Industry List. (2015).Retrieved from Yahoo Finance:
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McKenna. (2013). McDonald's Annual Report. Retrieved from About McDonald's.
McMillon, H. J. (2014).Wal-Mart Annual Reprt. Retrieved from Wal-Mart.
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veto-1.2953990
Pelletier, A. (2015, February 11). Walmart Canada announces expansion plans; Retailer continues to
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160211799.html
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12Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Appendix A- Suncor’s P/E Ratio
Payout Ratio
YEAR EPS DIVIDENDS PAYOUT RAT IO
2010 CAD 1.7 1 CAD 0.40 23.39%
2011 2.67 0.43 16.10%
2012 1.7 9 0.50 27 .93%
2013 2.6 0.7 3 28.08%
2014 1.84 1.02 55.43%
Average Payout Ratio 25.51%
Expected Dividend Payout Ratio 30%
Return on Equity
YEAR ROE
2010 7 .30%
2011 11.20%
2012 7 .10%
2013 9.50%
2014 8.00%
Average ROE 8.62%
Sustainable Growth Rate Calculation
g = ROE x (1 - payoutratio)
= 6.42%
Estimated EPSCalculation
Estimated EPS= 2014 EPS*g
= CAD 1.96
Beta
Stock βI
SU.T O 1.3
Expected MarketReturn
T SX Composite (1965-2014)
E (ram) (%) 10.47 68%
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13Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Risk Free Rate of Return (RF)
10 Year Bond Yield
Canada 1.32%
CAPM Model
With 10 Year Yield RF E(r_m ) βi k
SU.T O 1.32% 10.48% 1.3 13.23%
Adjusted Required Rate ofReturn = 14.50%
Current Price and P/E
Suncor Industry Market
Current Price CAD 37 .25
Current P/E 22.4 12.8 19.1
Current EPS CAD 1.84
Average EPSGrowth (2010-2014) 26.96%
Model Price (Price = Justified P/E x Estimated EPS)
Low Estimate High Estimate
Justified P/E 2.07 14.7 8
Estimated EPS $1.84 $2.20
Price $3.81 $32.51
Appendix B- Wal-Mart’s P/E Ratio
Payout Ratio
YEAR EPS DIVIDENDS PAYOUT RAT IO
2010 $4.07 $1.21 29.7 0%
2011 4.45 1.46 32.80%
2012 5.02 1.59 31.7 0%
2013 5.11 1.88 36.80%
2014 5 1.92 38.40%
Average Payout Ratio 27 .94%
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14Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Return on Equity
YEAR ROE
2010 21.80%
2011 21.80%
2012 22.30%
2013 21.90%
2014 18.50%
Average ROE 21.26%
Sustainable Growth Rate Calculation
g = ROE x (1 - payoutratio)
= 15.32%
Estimated EPSCalculation
Estimated EPS= 2014 EPS*g
= $ 5.77
Costco Wholesale’s EPS Growth
Year EPS EPS Growth ($) EPS Growth (%)
2010 $ 2.93 $ 0.36 14.0%
2011 $ 3.30 $ 0.37 12.6%
2012 $ 3.97 $ 0.67 20.3%
2013 $ 4.49 $ 0.52 13.1%
2014 $ 4.65 $ 0.16 3.6%
Average Annual EPS Growth 12.7 2%
Macy’s Inc.EPS Growth
Year EPS EPS Growth ($) EPS Growth (%)
2010 $ 2.03 $ 0.62 44.0%
2011 $ 2.88 $ 0.85 41.9%
2012 $ 3.45 $ 0.57 19.8%
2013 $ 4.00 $ 0.55 15.9%
2014 $ 4.35 $ 0.35 8.7 %
Average Annual EPS Growth 26.07 %
Reliable Financial
15Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis
Wal-Mart’s EPS Growth
Year EPS EPS Growth ($) EPS Growth (%)
2010 $4.07 $0.41 11.2%
2011 4.45 $0.38 9.3%
2012 5.02 $0.57 12.8%
2013 5.11 $0.09 1.8%
2014 5.00 ($0.11) -2.2%
Average Annual EPS Growth 6.58%
Current Price and P/E
Wal-Mart Industry Market
Current Price $80.7 1
Current P/E 16.17 25.4 19.44
Current EPS $5.00
Average EPSGrowth (2010-2014) 6.58%
Model Price (Price = Justified P/E x Estimated EPS)
Low Estimate High Estimate
Justified P/E 14.7 16.3
Estimated EPS $5.50 $6.65
Price $80.85 $108.40

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Reliable Financial Stock Portfolio Analysis (1)

  • 1. Reliable Financial 1Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Stock Portfolio Analysis Prepared for: Client Prepared by: Murtaza Maqbool Ahmed Date: April 12th, 2015 Enjoy the fruits, leave the planting to your reliable partners!
  • 2. Reliable Financial 2Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Hello Client, Thank you for choosing Reliable Financial for yourinvestmentneeds. To help you understand the performance ofyourportfolio better, in the observed period starting from January 15th,2015 to April 1st, 2015, I havecreated this Stock Portfolio Analysis report. This contents ofthis report include the overall performance ofyourportfolio, description ofmajor events in the North American markets and fundamental analysis ofthe best and worst performing stocks in the portfolio. A total gain of 4.1%was achieved on the portfolio during the observed period. The S&P 500 Index return was 3.36%, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index return was 6.42%. The best stock ofthe portfolio was Suncor Energy Inc. while the worst stock was Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Toyota MotorCorporation provided high returns throughout the observed period and gave a total gain of9.11%. McDonald’s performance was slightly better than the overall market, despite many operational issues, and it gave a total return of 5.07%. Abbott Labs traded at $45.89at closeon April 1st, 2015 and provided a total gain of3.94%. Abbott also declared a quarterly dividend of$0.24/share. Total dividends received during the observed period were $299.3and CAD164.2. Abbott’s dividendof$180.55 will be received on May 15th, 2015. Both Canadian and American stock markets suffered due to low oil prices.Canada’s oil-heavy economy is due to lose CAD 7 .6 billion as a result. Bank of Canada reduced its overnight interest rate, which provided good results for the financial sector. With crude oil selling as low as $47.38 in mid-January, the whole market felt its negative effects. In late January, forecastfor a dangerous snowstorm dipped the market by 55 points. The market reached its record high of2100 points in mid-February. The March jobs report suggested shortage ofskilled labor, which has resulted in big retailers like Wal-Mart and McDonald’s increasing wages to keep their trained staff. A stronger dollar and uncertainty about Fed’s interestrate hike are likely to cause problems in the future. The best stock ofthe portfolio, Suncor Energy (TSX: SU.TO) was found to be overvalued in the fundamental analysis. The high estimateprice ofCAD32.51 is lower than the April 1 st, 2015 price ofCAD 37 .25. OPEC’s record pumping ofoil has meant that Suncor’s earnings are unlikely to grow in the future. Suncor’s best casescenario includes pipelineprojects like Keystone, East Energy and Northern Gateway BC to be approved. The recommendation will be “Sell” for Suncor. The worst stock ofthe portfolio, Wal- Mart Stores Inc. (NY SE:WMT) was found to be undervalued in the fundamental analysis. The low estimate priceof$80.85 is higher than the last observed price of$80.69. A relative P/Eratio approach was used to find the intrinsic valueofWal-Mart’s stock. With 40 new Canadian stores, outofwhich 11 are already functioning, Wal-Mart can have a high EPS growth. Unfavorable foreign exchange rates, improvement ofoverall customer experience and lawsuit by New Y ork’s Trinity Church are Wal-Mart’s biggest challenges in the coming days. The recommendation will be “Buy” for Wal-Mart. Thank you and have a great day! Murtaza M Ahmed.
  • 3. Reliable Financial 3Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Table of Contents Description of Portfolio’s Performance................................................................................................ 4 Best and Worst Stocks .................................................................................................................... 4 Rest of the Portfolio........................................................................................................................ 4 Description of Major Events in American and Canadian Stock Markets ................................................. 5 American Stock Markets................................................................................................................. 5 Canadian Stock Markets ................................................................................................................. 5 Fundamental Analysis of Best Stock: Suncor Energy Inc....................................................................... 6 Introduction................................................................................................................................... 6 Analysis......................................................................................................................................... 6 Fundamental Analysis of Worst Stock: Wal-Mart Stores Inc.............................................................. 8 Introduction................................................................................................................................... 8 Analysis......................................................................................................................................... 8 Bibliography.................................................................................................................................... 10 Appendix A- Suncor’s P/E Ratio ........................................................................................................12 Appendix B- Wal-Mart’s P/E Ratio ....................................................................................................13
  • 4. Reliable Financial 4Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Description of Portfolio’s Performance The performanceofthe portfolio was largely satisfactory compared to the overall performance ofthe market. Total gain for all the stocks in the portfolio listed on NY SEwas 2.04%, while the S&P 500 index improved by 3.36%during the 76 day period starting from January 15th, 2015 to April 1st, 2015 (Yahoo Finance, 2015). The only stock listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, Suncor Energy Inc., outperformed the market by more than 3%. The total gain on SU.TO was 9.69%, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index increased by 6.42%only (Yahoo Finance, 2015). The overall gain on the portfolio was 4.01%. Company Cost Current Price High Price Low Price Gain % Market Gain % Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT ) $87 .50 $80.7 1 $89.93 $80.69 -7 .7 6% 3.36% McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) 91.64 96.29 100.25 88.02 5.07 % T oyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) 126.92 138.48 145.32 126.92 9.11% Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT ) 44.15 45.89 47 .83 43.41 3.94% Suncor Energy Inc. (T SX: SU.T O) CAD 33.96 CAD 37 .25 CAD 39.25 CAD 33.96 9.69% 6.42% Reliable FinancialPortfolio 4.01% Best and Worst Stocks WMT was the worst stock of the portfolio,currently tradedat $80.71. Total loss on its stock was 7 .76% and $1552 (FINVIZ,2015). A dividend of$0.49/sharewas received on March 11th, accounting for $114 (Y ahoo Finance, 2015). The best stock ofthe portfolio was SU.TO, the Calgary -basedoil giant. Despite the uncertainty in its market and OPEC not supporting oil prices, Suncor’s stock never droppedfrom its initial cost price ofCAD33.96. A dividend of$0.28/share was paid on March 25 th, 2015 which accounted for CAD 164.2 (Yahoo Finance, 2015). Rest of the Portfolio Toyota Motor Corporation’s stock fared great results since we purchased it, having traded as high as $145.32 on March 23rd, 2015 and providing a 9.11%gain (FINVIZ, 2015). The demand ofToyota’s SUVs is expected to rise significantly in the US this year (Dalavagas, 2015). Rising dollar prices have not affected Toyota a lot due to its low exposure to USdollar comparedto Ford and GM. McDonald’s Corp. faced some troubles with its suppliers in China and recorded poor sales in Q4 of 2014. With the change in top management, investors seem optimistic for a better2015 (Spencer, 2015).A dividendof$0.85/share was received on March 11th, accounting for $185.3. Abbott Laboratories soldits Markets specialty and Branded generics business to Mylan Inc.for $5300 million on March 3rd, 2015 (Company News, 2015).Abbott’s stock traded as high as $47.83and is currently tradedat $45.89. Table 1-PortfolioPerformance Sources: (YahooFinance,2015), (FINVIZ, 2015)
  • 5. Reliable Financial 5Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Description of Major Events in American and Canadian Stock Markets American Stock Markets 7 out of10 industries in the S&P 500 index saw a decline in the week ending on January 17th, 2015, as the index droppedby 1.2%(Lu Wang, 2015). The drop in oil prices impactedthe overall market bitterly, with crude oil selling as low as $47.38 in mid-January. As oil prices started stabilizing around early-February,investors showed interest in energy stocks like Exxon, Suncor and Chevron. The east coast prepared itselffor a lethal blizzard. Luckily, no tragedies happened otherthan 5.5 centimeters ofsnow in New Y ork and surrounding areas. The markets reacted to the anticipated snowstorm and the S&P 500 index dropped by 55 points in 2 days starting January 28 (Y ahoo Finance,2015). The news ofthe Greek debt impasse easing, along with the improving oil prices erased earlierdeclines, as market reached its record high on February 17 (Bost, 2015) of2100 points. As companies declared theirQ4 earnings in mid-February and early-March, investors showed more interest in the better-earning companies. Overall,an increase of4.2%in earnings was witnessed. A spike of7.8%in new home sales was observed, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis (Lehiff, 2015). The strongerdollarimpacted the exports as well as domestic production sector,which was evident by the March jobs report. Big challenges due to currency rates are expected to line up for all companies which have a high exposure to international currencies, like P&G and Wal-Mart. Canadian Stock Markets Canada’s economy faced a bigger dent due to the low oil-prices. The S&P/TSX Composite Index went as low as 14,041 points on January 15th, 2015. Bank ofCanada reduced its overnight interest rate to ease the impact oflower oil prices on January 21st, 2015 and the market return improved immediately (Tilak, 2015). TD, RBC and the overall financial sector, which impacts the market index the most, showed signs ofimprovement in early February as the market reached its two months high (Y ahoo Finance, 2015). As TransCanada beat market expectations in Q4 of 2014, confidence spurred in the energy sector with SU.TO hitting CAD 38.80 in late February. Hudson Bay’s involvement in the real estatemarket spikedthe market index by 63.80 points on February 23rd (Sharp, 2015). Strong USdollar did not impact the resource-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index a lot. But, the oil- heavy economy is nearly stripped off by CAD 7 .6 billion due to low oil prices. Figure1 -S&P5003-Month Price Chart Source: YahooFinance, April2nd,2015 Figure2-S&P/TSXComposite Index 3-Month Price Chart Source: YahooFinance, April2nd,2015
  • 6. Reliable Financial 6Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Fundamental Analysis of Best Stock: Suncor Energy Inc. Introduction Calgary-based Suncor Energy Inc. was the best stock ofthe portfolio, which experienced total gains of 9.69%(Y ahoo Finance,2015). 587 shares ofthis stock were bought for the portfolio at a cost ofCAD33.96/share. It traded at CAD 37 .25 at close on April 1st, 2015 (Google Finance, 2015). The lowest priceobserved for SU.TO was its cost price while it traded as high as CAD 39.25 during the last 3 months (Yahoo Finance, 2015). A quarterly dividend on CAD 0.28 was declaredper share on February 4th, 2015 (www.suncor.com, 2015). Analysis A P/E ratio approach was used to find if Suncor’s stock is undervalued or overvaluedat CAD 37 .25. The CAPM model was used to find the requiredrate ofreturn for this security while the dividend discount model was incorporated to find the justified P/Eratio for Suncor. The requiredrate ofreturn for Suncor, using the CAPMmodel was found to be 13.23%, the calculation for which can be found in Appendix A.Considering that the Petroleum integratedcompany is a slightly risky security, its beta was found to be 1.3 (FINVIZ, 2015).A 10 year Canadian bond yieldwas considered to be the risk-free rate, as the time frame for T-bills and 30 year bonds are too short and too long respectively. This risk-free rate was 1.32%(Bloomberg, 2015). The market return was found to be 10.48%by taking an averagereturn for S&P/TSX Composite Index for the past 50 years (Shiller, 2015). By using the data in Appendix A, Suncor’s sustainablegrowth rate was found to be 6.42%. An estimated EPS ofCAD 1.96 was determined by multiplying the 2014 EPSvalue to the growth rate. During the observed period,oil prices continued to stay low (Lu Wang, 2015). This did not help Suncor or any other company in the Oil and gas sector.Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corporation haveposted record lows since the 2008 correction (ValueLine Survey, 2015). But, there were a few positives for Suncor. On February 9th,2015, Enbridge’s 9Bpipeline running from “North Westover to Montreal” was approved by the National Energy Board (Enbridge, 2015). This should give an EPS growth increase of3%to Suncor. Considering political and regulatory factors, Suncor is expected to have a few good years in the future. The American Presidential elections to be held in 2016 would mean that Barack Obama, who is not fond of the Keystonepipeline, will no longer be in the office. The Republicans are in majority in the Congress,and have already approved the Keystonepipeline (News, 2015). The new President will likely not lock horns with the Congress and Keystoneshouldbe approved, which will result in an EPS increase of2%for Suncor. As Canada lines up for elections in 2015, the newly-electgovernment will adoptdrastic measures Figure3-Suncor’s 3-Month Price Chart Source: YahooFinance, April12,2015
  • 7. Reliable Financial 7Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis to improvethe economy and reduce budget deficit. This could result in some progress regarding pipelines such as Energy East and Northern Gateway BC, which will result in an EPS increase of1%for Suncor. Although,cost cutting does not suggest long-term progress, in recent times, only Suncor has been ableto do it in the best possible way in the industry (Seidman,2015). On January 13th, 2015, Suncor announced that it will cut CAD 1 billion from its annual budget to reduce it to CAD6.2 billion only. On April 1 st, 2015, Suncor announced thatit is in line to realize CAD 600 million to CAD800 million in cost-cutting.Steve Williams, Suncor’s CEO said, "We will continue to focus on reliable, safe and environmentally responsible operations and delivering valueto shareholders."(www.suncor.com, 2015). This should increasetheir EPS growth by 0.05%, resulting in a high estimate of12.47%or EPS of CAD 2.2. On the contrary, it can be argued thatall ofSuncor’s eggs are in the pipeline basket. Ifplans for Keystone, East Energy and Northern Gateway BCdo not materialize, then Suncor could see a decreasein EPS growth by 3%. Especially,after the oil-spill in Vancouver’s English Bay on April 9th, 2015 (News 1130, 2015), authorities will be morestrict than everwhen it comes to pipelines. Saudi Arabia and OPEC have continued to produce oil at an all-time high rate, to re-gain their marketshare from the USshale drillers (Customs Today, 2015). This means that prices will continue to stay low, which would result in a decrease in EPS growth by 3%. Suncor has stopped investing in most ofits new capital expansions, which means that production is unlikely to grow. The will reduce EPS growth by 0.42%, resulting in in a low estimate of 0% or EPS ofCAD 1.84. The average dividend payout ratio over the past fiveyears has been 25.51%. Suncor’s dividends have grown significantly in the recent past,which is in line with company’s vision.The average dividendgrowth rate overthe past five years has been 28.50%. Suncor’s expected payout ratio should be 30%, considering that its dividend has grown consistently over the past 10 years (Seidman, 2015). With OPEC’s recordhigh oil production, the required rateofreturn should be adjusted to 14.50%from 13.23%. YEAR EPS DIVIDENDS PAYOUT RAT IO 2010 CAD 1.7 1 CAD 0.4 23.39% 2011 2.67 0.43 16.10% 2012 1.7 9 0.5 27 .93% 2013 2.6 0.7 3 28.08% 2014 1.84 1.02 55.43% Average Payout Ratio 25.51% Model Price (Price = Justified P/E ratio x Estimated EPS) Low Estimate High Estimate Justified P/E 2.07 14.7 8 Estimated EPS CAD 1.84 CAD 2.2 Price CAD 3.81 CAD 32.51 Source: Value Line Survey: January 29,2015 The high estimate for justified P/E ratio will be 14.78, while the low estimatefor justified P/Eratio will give 2.07. This will result in a high price estimate ofCAD32.51, while a low price estimateofCAD 3.81, which suggests that Suncor’s stock is overpriced at CAD37 .25 and gives a “Sell” signal. Table 2-Suncor’s Payout Ratioand Model Price
  • 8. Reliable Financial 8Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Fundamental Analysis of Worst Stock: Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Introduction Arkansas-based retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. experienced total loss of7 .76%during the observed period.229 shares of this stock were bought for the portfolio at a cost of $87 .5/share (FINVIZ,2015). It tradedat $80.71 at close on April 1st, 2015.The lowest price observed for WMT was $80.69 while it traded as high as $89.93 during the last 3 months (Y ahoo Finance, 2015).An annual dividend on $1.96 was declared per shareon March 10th,2015 (www.walmart.com,2015). Analysis The P/E ratio approachwas used to find if Wal-Mart’s stock was undervalued or overvalued. To estimatea justified P/E ratio for Wal-Mart, its growth opportunities wereanalyzedand current P/Eratios of comparablecompanies weretaken into consideration to determine ifthe currentP/Etruly represents Wal-Mart’s value. The following chart depicts the currentP/Eratios ofWal-Mart, the Retail Store Industry, the market index;S&P 500 and two comparable companies, Costco and Macy’s Inc. Although, Target is the third biggest company in the industry,it was not considered for the analysis because ofits recent financial bump, which will provideuninformative results. P/E Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 16.17 Costco Wholesale 27 .5 Macy’s Inc. 13.9 Retail Stores Industry 25.4 S&P 500 19.44 The EPS growth ofWal-Mart in each ofthe last five years has been lower than both Costco Wholesale and Macy’s, which can be found in Appendix B. As Costco’s P/Eratio is very close to the industry’s P/Eratio, Costco’s growth rate of12.72%is a good guess for the industry. Considering that Wal-Mart’s averageEPS growth rate is 6.58%(Spencer, 2015) which is only 52%ofCostco’s EPS growth rate, and Wal-Mart’s P/E is nearly 0.63 times the industry ratio, a slightly lowerP/Eratio of 15.0 will be a better starting point for the analysis. Wal-Mart has been in the news over the observed period for wage-increase in many states in the US, cost- cutting measures, opening ofnew Canadian stores and Target’s exit from Canada, which could be Figure4-Wal-Mart’s 3-Month Price Chart Source: YahooFinance, April9,2015 Sources: (YahooFinance,2015), (The Street,2015),(Value Line Survey, 2015) Table 3-P/E Values of WMT, Competition and Market
  • 9. Reliable Financial 9Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis associated to Wal-Mart’s aggressive low pricing. On February 11th, 2015, Wal-Mart Canada announced that it will open 29 supercenters and invest approximately CAD340 million for “supercenter, distribution network, and e-commerce projects”(Pelletier,2015). This is in addition to the 11 supercenters it already opened in January, 2015.This will result in an increase of1.0 to the P/E, considering that it will increase Wal-Mart’s share in the Canadian market and further stamp its authority as the biggest retailer in the world. Since Greg Foran became the CEO of Wal-Mart USA, which accounts for 60%ofWal-Mart’s sales, a lot of emphasis has been given on improving customer experience and regaining Wal-Mart’s position as the lowest-priceleader(D'Innocenzio,2015). This should improve the P/Eby 0.2. Although, increasing wages will cost Wal-Mart a little bit, it will also mean that they will be able to retain their trained staffin a highly competitive labor market, which is evident from the jobs report (Business Wire, 2015). This should result in a 0.1 increase in P/E. The resulting high P/E would be 16.3. On the contrary, Wal-Mart’s profits havebeen affected adversely becauseofunfavorable foreign exchange rates. This will cause a decrease of0.1 to its P/E. 25%of Wal-Mart’s stores are in the oil-producing states in the US. With tremendous amount oflayoffs in those states, people will likely not turn up to the stores for unnecessary products (CNBC, 2015),which wouldhavean adverse effect to theirP/Eofabout 0.1. A lawsuit filed by New Y ork’s Trinity church could affect Wal-Mart’s sales offirearms (Geier, 2015),which could affect P/Eby another0.1. The resulting low P/Ewould be 14.7 Using the data in Appendix B to calculate Wal-Mart’s sustainablegrowth rate,an estimated EPS of $5.77 was determined by multiplying the 2014 EPS value to the growth rate. If the new Canadian stores start generating profits, Wal-Mart could see an increasein EPS by $0.5. Also, the new stores opened under Wal-Mart’s and Sam’s Club’s banners in Arkansas, Alabama,Tennessee, Virginia, Utah, Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona and Texas couldresultin increased EPS of$0.35 (Value Line Survey, 2015). Improvedinventory-keeping mechanisms and bettercustomerexperience could result in $0.03 increase in EPS (Pelletier, 2015). A high estimatefor EPS can be expectedto be around $6.65. On the other hand, start-up costs for the new Canadian stores could affect Wal-Mart’s profits. Therefore, an EPS decrease of$0.15 could be expected. Unfavorable foreign exchange rates could result in an EPS decreaseof$0.05. Wal-Mart has decidedto spend $1 billion to increasewages in 20 15. This should hardly upset the company that posted $485.7 billion in revenuefor 2014.An EPS decreaseof$0.02 can be expected. The retailer sells firearms in less than 50%ofits stores in the US which could result in an EPS decreaseof$0.05. This low EPS could be then estimated around $5.5. Model Price (Price = Justified P/E ratio x Estimated EPS) Low Estimate High Estimate Justified P/E 14.7 16.3 Estimated EPS $5.5 $6.65 Price $80.85 $108.4 A high estimate for Wal-Mart’s price was found to be $108.4,by multiplying the high estimates for EPS and P/E ratio. Whereas, a low estimatefor Wal-Mart’s stock price was found to be $80.85.The range is quite large, but it incorporates all positiveand negative impacts WMT could experiencein the future. A current price of$80.71 tells that WMT is still undervalued and indicates a “Buy” signal. Table 4-Wal-Mart’s Model Price
  • 10. Reliable Financial 10Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Bibliography (2015). Retrievedfrom www.walmart.com. (2015). Retrievedfrom www.suncor.com. (2015, April 1). Retrieved from FINVIZ. (2015). Retrievedfrom Y ahoo Finance:https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=WMT (2015). Retrievedfrom Business Wire: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150219005629/en/Walmart-announces-Q4- underlying1-EPS-1.61-additional#.VSsBo_lDt8E (2015). Retrievedfrom Google Finance. (2015). Retrievedfrom The Motley Fool. (2015). Retrievedfrom Value Line Survey. (2015). Retrievedfrom The Street. (2015). Retrievedfrom Bloomberg:http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/ (2015). Retrievedfrom Enbridge:http://www.enbridge.com/ECRAI/Line9BReversalProject.aspx (2015, April 9). Retrieved from News 1130:http://www.news1130.com/2015/04/09/oil-spill-at-english- bay/ (2015, April 13). Retrieved from Customs Today: http://customstoday.com.pk/saudi-arabia-produces-10- 3m-bpd-oil-in-march/ Bost, C. (2015, February 17). S&P 500 Just Broke 2,100 for the First Time. Retrieved from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17/u-s-index-futures-drop-on-greek- deadlock-with-s-p-500-at-record CNBC. (2015). Retailers feeling oil squeeze. Retrievedfrom Y ahoo Finance. Company News. (2015, March 2). Retrieved from ValueLine: https://research.valueline.com/secure/research#list=recent&sec=company&sym=abt Dalavagas, I. (2015, February 21). ValueLine Research. Retrieved from Value Line. D'Innocenzio, A. (2015, April 1). Wal-Mart asks suppliers to cut back on ads for store as it seeks low - price leader crown again.Retrieved from Yahoo Finance: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-asks-suppliers-cut-back-ads-store- 164729942.html Geier, B. (2015, March 23). http://fortune.com/2015/03/23/wal-mart-guns/?xid=yahoo_fortune. Retrieved from Fortune.
  • 11. Reliable Financial 11Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Industry Browser - Basic Materials Sector - Industry List. (2015).Retrieved from Yahoo Finance: https://biz.yahoo.com/p/1peeu.html Lehiff, K. A. (2015, March 24). Stocks Climb, Nasdaq Leads Markets as Health Care Rebounds.Retrieved from The Street:http://www.thestreet.com/story/13088816/1/stocks-are-mixed-as-us- consumer-inflation-moves-higher.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO Lu Wang, O. R. (2015,January 15). Friday Rally Masks S&P 500 Pain as 10% Corrections Spread. Retrieved from Bloomberg:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-16/friday-rally- masks-s-p-500-pain-as-10-corrections-spread?cmpid=yhoo McKenna. (2013). McDonald's Annual Report. Retrieved from About McDonald's. McMillon, H. J. (2014).Wal-Mart Annual Reprt. Retrieved from Wal-Mart. News, C. (2015, February 11). Keystone XL approvedby Congress, faces president's veto. Retrieved from CBC: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/keystone-xl-approved-by-congress-faces-president-s- veto-1.2953990 Pelletier, A. (2015, February 11). Walmart Canada announces expansion plans; Retailer continues to acceleratefood and e-commerce growth. Retrieved from News Wire: http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1485041/walmart-canada-announces-expansion-plans- retailer-continues-to-accelerate-food-and-e-commerce-growth Seidman, O. (2015, March 6). ValueLine Survey. Retrieved from ValueLine. Sharp, T. (2015, February 24). CANADA STOCKS-TSX higher on Hudson's Bay surge, banks gain too. Retrieved from Yahoo Finance:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-stocks-tsx-higher- hudsons-213145787.html Shiller. (2015). Retrieved from YaleUniversity: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm Spencer, M. (2015, February 27). ValueLine Research.Retrieved from ValueLine. Tilak, J. (2015, January 22). CANADA STOCKS-TSX hits 2-week high after ECB, Bank of Canada moves. Retrieved from Yahoo Finance:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-stocks-tsx-hits-2- 160211799.html
  • 12. Reliable Financial 12Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Appendix A- Suncor’s P/E Ratio Payout Ratio YEAR EPS DIVIDENDS PAYOUT RAT IO 2010 CAD 1.7 1 CAD 0.40 23.39% 2011 2.67 0.43 16.10% 2012 1.7 9 0.50 27 .93% 2013 2.6 0.7 3 28.08% 2014 1.84 1.02 55.43% Average Payout Ratio 25.51% Expected Dividend Payout Ratio 30% Return on Equity YEAR ROE 2010 7 .30% 2011 11.20% 2012 7 .10% 2013 9.50% 2014 8.00% Average ROE 8.62% Sustainable Growth Rate Calculation g = ROE x (1 - payoutratio) = 6.42% Estimated EPSCalculation Estimated EPS= 2014 EPS*g = CAD 1.96 Beta Stock βI SU.T O 1.3 Expected MarketReturn T SX Composite (1965-2014) E (ram) (%) 10.47 68%
  • 13. Reliable Financial 13Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Risk Free Rate of Return (RF) 10 Year Bond Yield Canada 1.32% CAPM Model With 10 Year Yield RF E(r_m ) βi k SU.T O 1.32% 10.48% 1.3 13.23% Adjusted Required Rate ofReturn = 14.50% Current Price and P/E Suncor Industry Market Current Price CAD 37 .25 Current P/E 22.4 12.8 19.1 Current EPS CAD 1.84 Average EPSGrowth (2010-2014) 26.96% Model Price (Price = Justified P/E x Estimated EPS) Low Estimate High Estimate Justified P/E 2.07 14.7 8 Estimated EPS $1.84 $2.20 Price $3.81 $32.51 Appendix B- Wal-Mart’s P/E Ratio Payout Ratio YEAR EPS DIVIDENDS PAYOUT RAT IO 2010 $4.07 $1.21 29.7 0% 2011 4.45 1.46 32.80% 2012 5.02 1.59 31.7 0% 2013 5.11 1.88 36.80% 2014 5 1.92 38.40% Average Payout Ratio 27 .94%
  • 14. Reliable Financial 14Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Return on Equity YEAR ROE 2010 21.80% 2011 21.80% 2012 22.30% 2013 21.90% 2014 18.50% Average ROE 21.26% Sustainable Growth Rate Calculation g = ROE x (1 - payoutratio) = 15.32% Estimated EPSCalculation Estimated EPS= 2014 EPS*g = $ 5.77 Costco Wholesale’s EPS Growth Year EPS EPS Growth ($) EPS Growth (%) 2010 $ 2.93 $ 0.36 14.0% 2011 $ 3.30 $ 0.37 12.6% 2012 $ 3.97 $ 0.67 20.3% 2013 $ 4.49 $ 0.52 13.1% 2014 $ 4.65 $ 0.16 3.6% Average Annual EPS Growth 12.7 2% Macy’s Inc.EPS Growth Year EPS EPS Growth ($) EPS Growth (%) 2010 $ 2.03 $ 0.62 44.0% 2011 $ 2.88 $ 0.85 41.9% 2012 $ 3.45 $ 0.57 19.8% 2013 $ 4.00 $ 0.55 15.9% 2014 $ 4.35 $ 0.35 8.7 % Average Annual EPS Growth 26.07 %
  • 15. Reliable Financial 15Reliable FinancialStock Portfolio Analysis Wal-Mart’s EPS Growth Year EPS EPS Growth ($) EPS Growth (%) 2010 $4.07 $0.41 11.2% 2011 4.45 $0.38 9.3% 2012 5.02 $0.57 12.8% 2013 5.11 $0.09 1.8% 2014 5.00 ($0.11) -2.2% Average Annual EPS Growth 6.58% Current Price and P/E Wal-Mart Industry Market Current Price $80.7 1 Current P/E 16.17 25.4 19.44 Current EPS $5.00 Average EPSGrowth (2010-2014) 6.58% Model Price (Price = Justified P/E x Estimated EPS) Low Estimate High Estimate Justified P/E 14.7 16.3 Estimated EPS $5.50 $6.65 Price $80.85 $108.40