Technical investment analysis involves understanding price movements and knowing how to interpret their meaning. Numerous technical trading tools exist to assist with improving the probability of trading success.

1. Moneycation
Published by Moneycation™
Newsletter: April 28, 2015
Volume 3, Issue 9
Technical investment analysis
“The price pattern reminds you that every movement of
importance is but a repetition of similar price movements,
that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able
to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements.” Jesse
Livermore
The above quote is from a famous historical investor who made and also lost a great deal of money
in his investment career. The price patterns he is alluding to is what a field of investing known as
technical analysis measures using a number of techniques. Over time and since the time of Jesse
Livermore, these methods and metrics have become increasingly elaborate and sophisticated adding
to the their value as investment tools.
Technical investment analysis measures important aspects of market and securities price
movements such as momentum, sentiment, strength and volume. These are reflect numerous market
conditions such as market psychology, economic news and industry developments. Since these
macro-factors can and do influence stock prices, knowing how to measure them is an important
aspect of investment analysis. Moreover, technical metrics capture many of more qualitative
factors that affect prices using mathematical and statistical observation.
Being able to properly apply the knowledge and information gained from effective technical
analysis of stocks is key in numerous investment tactics such as market timing, momentum trading
and swing trading. It is also useful when seeking to maximize other investment methods such as
dollar-cost-averaging and value investing. Technical analysis does not necessarily impart insight,
but it does graphically display the financial data from which investment insight and empirically
based decisions can be made.
In terms of stock trading, technical analysis also refers to the evaluation of stock price changes over
time. These changes are measured and plotted using formulas, charts and graphs and assessed in
terms of patterns, and strength of stock price movement. A number of basic technical tools, and
techniques are used to help technical analysts or chartists assess if specific indicators have
occurred. The following chart is an example of technical analysis because it uses past prices to
create a charted pattern that reflects market conditions.

2. Candlestick charting is form of technical investment analysis
Image
attribution: StocksDocs. CC BY S.A.-3.0
After a technical indicator has occurred, a confirmation of that indicator may follow using another
technical analysis metric. Technical analysis is not an exact science, and generally shouldn't be
considered as always being reliable. Rather basic technical analysis is sometimes used in stock
trading to assist in substantiating or validating other methods of stock analysis. As the video below
states, technical analysis is not about fundamental statistics such as earnings per share.
Moving averages
Moving averages are measured in days, usually up to 200. When longer-term moving averages have
been moved through by stock prices, it sometimes indicates a significant price movement.
Sometimes stock price support and resistance are formed near moving averages, and when these
price levels are significantly broken it can mean a possible price momentum trend. In other words,
moving averages are at times used as pivot points where a stock may have a pattern of rebounding
upward or downward.
Candlestick charting
Candlestick charting is a form of technical analysis that began in East Asia. In this type of analysis
price movements are represented by black or white candlesticks with lines at the top and bottom.
Sometimes colors such as green or red replace the black and white in candlesticks. The color, length
and positioning of these candles are placed on a chart and scaled in terms of time and stock price .
The technical analysis of these charts will then interpret the candles based on past patterns of
similar candle positioning.
Oscillators
Oscillators are used to determine upper and lower limits of price movements. Examples of
oscillators are the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Rate of Change (ROC) indicators. These

3. basic stock technical analysis tools plot values on a scale between 0-100 using mathematical
formulas. When certain value levels are reached, the oscillators are sometimes thought to show an
increased probability of a price being close to a high or low.
Trading levels
Trading levels constitute the amount of stock trading that takes place during a specific period of
time and is another widely used basic aspect of technical analysis in stock trading. Trading levels
are measured using volume and when it ncreases it can mean a growing momentum in the
movement of a trend may be occurring or about to occur. Volume can also indicate overall market
participation. For example, during holidays, volume can be quite low due to the absence of
investing activity on those days in holiday when the stock market is open.
Line graphs
Line graphs are also used in basic technical analysis of the stock market. When stock prices are
plotted onto line graphs over time, the movement of that price can be analyzed for patterns in a
similar way to candlestick charting. For example, a stock price line graph may create a pattern
called 'head and shoulders', which literally takes the shape of a left and right shoulder with a head in
the middle. If patterns like this become evident, stock prices sometimes follow similar movements
to previous occurrences when a similar pattern was observed in that or other financial securities'
line graphs.
Anatomy of a stock chart candlestick
Candlestick analysis tracks price movements to confirm trends
Image attribution: Ticmarc, Public Domain
Candlestick charting is a kind of financial analysis used in what is known as technical analysis.
Technical analysis of financial securities interprets charted or graphed price movements, patterns
and trends of a financial product to help improve the results of financial activities such as stock
trading. In candlestick analysis the candlestick chart or graph is the tool for analysis, but the

4. analysis of that chart is what provides financial utility. Moreover, as a form of technical analysis,
candlestick charting reflects financial influences such as market psychology via product price
patterns instead of the evaluating the product itself.
The history of candlestick charting
In the book 'Trading Applications of Japanese Candlestick Charting' by Gary Wagner and Bradley
Matheny, the origins of candlestick charting are said to date back to the seventeenth century
creation of an honorary samurai and futures trader named Sokyu Homma. According to Wagner and
Matheny, Homma's candlestick patterns indicated commodity price direction when a series of three
candlesticks in either an upward or downward pattern occur as 'gaps' in the opposite direction.
Patterns like those developed by Sokyu Homma are determined using candlestick charting through
evaluation of key variables in a financial product's price including its opening price, highest price,
lowest price and closing price. These price movements are represented as a pattern or series of
chronological units such as a single day, with each unit graphed as a single rectangle or line known
as a candlestick. The video below further explains the history and purpose of candlestick charting.
Interpretation of price patterns
The appearance of candlesticks and wicks provide a lot of information about a financial product's
price patterns for the period of time it is measuring. Essential aspects of the candlesticks are their
color, length and the length of the 'wicks' or lines at the top and bottom of the candlestick's body.
These candlesticks can vary in length and position on a candlestick chart depending on how the
price of a particular price such as company price per share moves in a given time period. The top
and bottom of the candlestick's body symbolize the opening and closing prices, and the top and
bottom of the wicks represent the highest and lowest values reached during a trading period.
When a candlestick is black or red, a product's price has closed lower than its price when it opened
at the beginning of trading. If the product's price closes higher than the opening price, the body of
the candle is green or white. Long candlesticks and wicks represent a larger range of price
movement than shorter candlesticks where the bottom wicks indicate the lowest price of the trading
period and the top wick show the highest price. Sometimes no candlestick body is formed at all and
this is called a 'doji'. Also per Wagner and Bradley, a Doji represents a trading period in which the
opening price and closing price were very similar.
Price evaluation and forecasting
Once the appearance and location of a candlestick is understood, it is then interpreted for price
evaluation and forecasting purposes. This is done by analyzing the form of the candles and their
relationship to other candlesticks on the chart. For example, a series of black candlesticks each
positioned lower than the next indicates a negative price trend such as a 'bearish hook reversal' and
may mean confidence in a stock or commodity has been lost. Furthermore, if the majority of
candlesticks on a chart are black with a visible downward trend, this can indicate a long term trend
such as a market correction. A market correction is when a price moves lower to correct overly
optimistic speculation regarding a specific product's value.

5. There are several candlestick chart patterns which a chartist is ideally familiar with. These patterns
also have names such as 'spinning top', and 'marubozu' which help the chartist quickly interpret
their meaning based on previous interpretations of the candlestick pattern. To illustrate, according
to Minyanville Media Inc, an Emmy Award Winning business information provider, a 'spinning top'
can serve as an indicator a price reversal is about to take place. Candlestick charting analysis, like
most financial analysis in general is not definitive proof of where a financial product's price is
heading. However, candlestick charts can serve as indicators of market indecisiveness, conviction
and momentum; all of which in and of themselves influence the price of financial products.
The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) was developed in 1978 by an individual named Welles Wilder. The RSI is what
day traders call a 'technical indicator' and is a mathematical calculation used in the assessment of a securities
performance. The RSI can be applied to stocks, currency, commodities and even baseball batting averages but the
indicator was designed primarily for financial markets.
What the Relative Strength Indicator measures
The RSI measures short-term strength of price momentum as compared to recent price declines on
a scale from 0-100. In other words, the indicator measures a financial vehicle's gain in proportion to
recent losses over a period of 1-3 weeks. This allows day traders and brokerage firms to have a
better idea regarding the significance of a price movement. The closer the RSI is to 100, the more
significant the price increase is and the closer the RSI value is to 0, the greater the scale of price
decreases. RSI values over 50 are considered 'bullish' or favorable while a value of 70 may indicate
a financial instrument has been overbought.
How the Relative Strength Indicator is Calculated
Modern technology and computerized software programs often calculate technical indicators such
as RSI for the trader so they don't have to waste their time with multiple equations. What's more the
RSI's of securities can be displayed in the form of a graph allowing a trader to see how the RSI has
changed over time. For this reason it can be considered more important to know what the RSI
measures than how it is measured. However, for purpose of explanation the basic RSI calculation is
as follows:
RSI= 100-(100/1+RS) where RS=(Total gains/n)/(Total losses/n) where n=number of days or
periods.
This is one of the easier ways to calculate RSI as there is also a more sophisticated way to calculate
it using past RSI's for greater accuracy or 'smoothing'. Also, if a securities price does not change
from day to day the equation is adjusted to incorporate an 'exponential moving average'.
Usefulness of the Relative Strength Indicator
The usefulness of the RSI is relative to many external factors and other technical indicators. While
it is not the only indicator, it is thought of as a useful one but is often not the only indicator used by
traders when making buy or sell decisions. The reason the RSI is useful is because it is a reflection
of enthusiasm for a particular stock, commodity or other financial instrument. When enthusiasm is
high and a stock is not 'overbought' as indicated by the RSI, it may be a significant entry point for a
trader.

6. In summary, the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is a mathematical metric used in technical
analysis of financial instruments. The RSI is often calculated using financial software to assist
traders in making buy and/or sell decisions. The RSI is one of many tools available to securities
traders and measures price movement momentum. As useful as the RSI may be it is often used in
conjunction with other technical indicators.
The zero line cross trading system
The zero line cross trading system is mostly simply used as a "price momentum indicator".
Indicators such as this are statistically based and are not a guarantee that a desired and/or indicated
change will occur but rather an indication that a change has occurred and may lead to future
changes in a specific direction.
In other words, the zero line cross indicator is what day traders call a technical indicator and is used
in technical analysis of financial securities such as stocks. The time frame for which this indicator is
used in is quick, lasting as little as a few minutes and it may switch indications several times in a
single day.
Why the Zero Line Cross trading system is useful
The ZLC is useful because like other technical indicators that measure price momentum, it
demonstrates a potential movement trend in the price of a stock. Day traders may use this indicator
in determining when they should buy in or sell out of a stock position.
How the zero line cross works
The mathematics behind the ZLC can be distracting and abstract as it is used in tandem with
another technical indicator called the commodity channel index (CCI) which is used in market
timing of price cycles. The CCI uses a scale of 0-100, but also uses a scale of 0 -(-100). The zero
line of the CCI scale is used in the zero line cross trading system along with another technical
indicator called the moving average which is literally the moving average of a price over time.
When the price of a stock or commodity crosses the zero line of two long term commodity channel
index lines i.e. price momentum as calculated using different time frames, a trader is signaled a buy
may be in order. The indicator is stronger if the moving average is also broken by the stock or
commodity price.
Many computer software programs perform the mathematical calculations needed to determine
when the zero line is crossed in the appropriate way and do so in the form of a graphical
representation or chart overlay. A few of the important aspects of the zero line cross trading system
are the following:
• Price passes through both long term commodity channel index zero lines.
• The price of the stock or commodity also breaks through the moving average.
• The zero line has not been significantly surpassed

7. Calculating the zero line cross indicator
To better understand the dynamics of the zero line cross indicator it can be helpful to understand the
mathematics behind the calculation but is not always necessary. Three equations are used in the
zero line system.
1. Price moving average
2. Commodity Channel Index (time scale A: Ex. 30 days)
3. Commodity Channel Index (time scale B: Ex. 60 days)
There are several ways to calculate a moving average such as simple moving average, typical
moving average and exponential moving average with increasing accuracy in the same order.
The typical moving average is calculated by taking a number of days or periods stock price high,
low and close values and dividing it by three and then adding each days typical price average and
dividing that by the total number of periods. Symbolically it looks like this:
TMA=(H1+L1+C1/3)+(H2+L2+C2/3)+(H3+L3+C3/3)../N where N=number of periods and
TMA=Typical Moving Average. And (H1+L1+C1/3)=TP or typical price.
Both the commodity Channel Index values are calculated in an ongoing manner using the same
method for different time periods. The long term time periods allow the mathematician or software
program to determine a 200 point index range from -100 to +100 and the calculation is as follows:
CCI=(average price of the stocks high, low and closing values-moving average price)/ .015 * mean
deviation).
The mean deviation is calculated by determining the average dispersion of a time periods stock
price about the mean. Symbolically the mean deviation is calculated as follows:
1. Calculate TMA for each day of the time period to be measured Ex.30 days using the above
formula.
2. Subtract each days Typical price from the Typical Moving average for that day.
3. Add the new values up and divide by 30.
The Zero line cross trading system is a price momentum indicator that is usually used in an on
going basis for short term trading while using long term values in its calculation. A range between
-100 through +100 is determined by calculating the commodity channel index for a number of days
in the past thereby establishing a zero line. This zero line becomes the indicator device through
which the trader can better determine if a price trend shift is occurring. If the zero line and the
moving average lines are broken this suggests to the trader a positive change in momentum in a
securities price could occur.
The moving average bounce trading system is a pattern in stock price movement similar to a ball
bouncing off a moving floor. For example, just like the average height of a female may be 5' 8" a
stock price also acquires an average over time. During a typical trading day, the price of the stock
may move above or below this average stock price. The analysis of these price movements is called
technical analysis as the following video illustrates. The moving average bounce trading system

8. utilizes a technical analysis technique.
To explain further, the moving average bounce trading system is a system of analyzing financial
instruments based on a bouncing pattern produced by a stock price's movement around its moving
average. Specifically, the pattern starts by moving away from the moving average, then back
toward it and then away again, hence the 'bounce' term.
Why the moving average bounce is meaningful to day traders
The moving average bounce indicates that a stock price or other financial instrument may have
reached a new price floor because the bounce is technically the second divergence away from the
moving average line. This means the chances of the price moving below the moving average may
be lower and a trader hopes this is the case.
Spotting a moving average bounce
Stock price graphs and software applications often chart the course of historical stock price
movement and also perform statistical calculations used in analyzing stock price movement. One
such calculation is the moving average and can be viewed on stock charts and graphs in the form of
a line visibly overlayed on the stock price line. This enables the day trader to compare the stock
price to the moving average and spot the bounce.
Timing a moving average bounce
Moving average bounces can occur anytime in a financial instruments trading cycle. In day trading,
a moving average bounce is used in a short-term period meaning the period in which the bounce
occurs can be minutes. Nevertheless, the actual moving average that is used can be a long term
moving average but this is not absolutely necessary and depends on the technique and patterns used
in stock trading.
Calculating the moving average
If one has no choice but to calculate a moving average manually the equation is fairly simple.
Select a time period such as 30, 60, or 90 days and take three time periods for each of those days.
Find the price of the stock for each time period, add them and then divide them by 3 to get an
average daily price. Then do this for each of the 30, 60 or 90 days, add them and divide that number
by the number of days. The moving average will then have been calculated for the 90th day. In
mathematical steps, an example calculation proceeds as follows:
1. Morning price + Midday price + Afternoon price/3
2. Repeat for desired number of days Ex. 30 days
3. Add each days average price and divide by 30
There are several ways to calculate a moving average, and the method one chooses depends on the
accuracy one desires and/or the software one uses. Three methods of moving average are simple
moving average, 'typical price' moving average and the exponential moving average. The above
example uses the typical price method and is an average using a number of averages while the

9. simple average method is just an average.
The exponential moving average gives greater importance to recent prices and is thus a 'weighted'
moving average. The formula for this moving average incorporates an exponent with each new days
moving average for such weighting purposes and is calculated as follows:
Exponential Moving Average=Stock Close price * Exponent) + (prior days moving average or
exponential moving average * (1-Exponent) Where the exponent is calculated by dividing 2 by the
number of days in the moving average +1.
The exponent is the key to calculating the moving average using this method and it is calculated by
dividing the number 2 by the number of days in the moving average calculation + 1. This must be
done for each of the days as in the typical price moving average method above. However, the first
day in the calculation which is actually the second day because a previous day must exist for the
equation to work properly, will have a larger exponent than the most recent days allowing it to be
mathematically weighted.
The moving average bounce is what day traders call a 'technical indicator' meaning it is used in the
technical analysis of a financial instrument's price movement. The purpose of the moving average
bounce is to signal a possible buying or entry point for the trader. The confidence given to this
technique is due to the fact that the bounce is the second rather than the first movement away from
the moving average line indicating a possible price floor and predictable movement in the price of
the stock.
The actual movement of the stock price may or may not move the direction the trader intends
through using the moving average bounce system. However, the bounce system also gives the
trader more reason to think the stock price will move in the direction (s)he wishes. Moving average
bounces can be observed using technical analysis software, various stock price charts and/or
calculated manually. The moving average bounce system may also be used along side one or more
other technical indicators.
The Commodity Channel Index
The commodity channel index (CCI) is one of many financial techniques that have been developed
by mathematicians, economists, and financial analysts within the last few decades. The commodity
channel index is used to assist with predicting stock price and other financial instruments
movement. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is one such technique and was first introduced in
1980 by a man named Donald Lambert.
The CCI is a mathematical indicator that measures price oscillations around an average stock price
and uses a range from -100 through +100. Prices closer to +100 in the range indicate more buying
of a commodity and prices closer to the -100 point in the CCI range indicate more selling has taken
place.
Why the commodity channel index is useful
The commodity channel index is useful for day traders because they can monitor the stock price in
relation to the commodity channel index to see if prices suitably positioned for a possible trade. In

10. any given day of trading a stock price may move into and out various points within the commodity
channel index range which helps the trader navigate price movements. The CCI is considered
beneficial in the following ways:
• Can be used across securities markets including stocks, commodities, and foreign exchange.
• Is readily available in software applications and presented in graphical format.
• Indicates where a securities price stands in relation to CCI range.
• Helps traders determine possible entry and exit points for trading.
• Points out where a stock, commodity or other security may be overbought or oversold.
• Provides an ongoing measurement throughout the trading day.
Using the commodity channel index
The commodity channel index is used by calculating 2-3 equations on an ongoing basis. These
equations are the moving average, and 1-2 long term commodity channel index equations. The
moving average is used in determining an average security price over a period of time and the
commodity channel index is used to both establish a range of high, low and middle points for the
securities price and where within the range a current stock or commodity price is. The results of
these equations are often presented in the form of line graphs alongside the actual historical price
movement of a security.
Calculating the commodity channel index
If one's computer, spreadsheet application or technical analysis software is not working one may
find themselves in the position of having to calculate the CCI manually. Performing the manual
calculations may also assist in understanding the concepts and reasoning behind the commodity
channel index. The calculations are as follows:
The commodity channel index uses three sub equations in the main equation. Those equations are
average daily price, moving average daily price and mean deviation of price from the moving
average daily price.
1. An average daily price is calculated using different price points in a day such as open, close and
midday or high, low or close or high, low or open. All these values could also be used and it
depends on which numbers one things are more accurate. The following is an example of the
calculation. Open $25.00+Midday 24.50 +Close 24.75=74.25/3=$24.75. Thus $24.75 is the average
price for a day using open, midday and closing prices.
2. The moving average is determined by calculating the average daily price for a given number of
days such as 60 days. These daily averages are then added and averaged themselves. For example,
daily average day 1+ daily average day 2etc/ number of days=60. If the total of daily averages was
1650 then divided by 60 would yield a moving average number of $27.50.
3. Price Mean deviation is the difference in a stock or commodities price from the moving average.
Like the previous two calculations this is also an average but the numbers being averaged are the
difference of a daily price average from the moving daily average. For example, if in 60 days this
difference adds up to $10.20, divided by 60=0.17 making the mean price deviation .17 cents.

11. 4. Last the CCI is calculated by using #1 , #2 and #3 above by subtracting the moving average daily
price from an average price on a particular day for which the trader wants the indicator for. This
value is then divided by .015 multiplied by the mean deviation. Using our examples above we get
the following using $28.00 as our latest average day price.
CCI=Latest average price-Moving average price/ .015 * Mean deviation.
Note: (The .015 was included by Lambert in the calculation to allow for proximity to the 200 point
scale so a majority of price values would fall within it.)
CCI=$28.00-$27.50/.015 *.17=.50/.00255=196.07
Thus our commodity channel index number is well over +100 indicating a potentially overbought
position!
The Commodity Channel Index is one of many financial analysis tools available to day traders.
This being the case it is often used alongside other useful indicators such as volume indicators,
candlestick analysis, relative strength indicator and the zero line cross indicator. To use the CCI
alone may not provide an adequate description of the price movement pattern that is being observed
and therefore may at times if not often, be insufficient as price momentum indicator. Nevertheless,
Conclusion
Knowing how technical analysis works and being able to interpret stock price charts is considered
quite important by investors. Even investors that prefer fundamental analysis often refer to
technical charts and graphs for added insights into their potential investments. This is because
technical analysis not only provides a visual display of quantitative financial data, but also presents
a historical pattern of price movements and corresponding factors such as purchase volume and
strength that occur side-by-side with those price changes.
Technical methods and metrics such as the relative strength index, commodity price index and
moving average bounce trading system apply pattern recognition to quantifiable observations and
trends. Doing so helps investors and analysts interpret how and why securities prices move in the
way that they do.
This type of analysis also assists market participants evaluate whether or not buying or selling at
particular times and price entry points is a wise and financially prudent choice. For example, even
though a company may be trading under its historical price-to-earnings ratio, the price may still be
overbought from a technical perspective. In other words, market conditions and business
fundamentals are not always in agreement and this is important to acknowledge when making
informed investment decisions. Being able to spot when this happens and understand its relevance
makes the value of technical analysis all the more important.

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