Special project (thesis), presented to IGAD Sheikh Technical Veterinary School (Makerere University accredited veterinary school in Somalia) as part of requirements for obtaining. Advanced diploma in Livestock Health Science

1. 16/03/2016 1
Prevalence Estimation and Risk factor Analysis of PPR in
Puntland State , Somalia.
BY
MOHAMED SAID ABDULLE
Especial project presentation , 24th July
,2012 , Sheikh ,Somaliland

2.  Infectious diseases are significant impediments
 A peste des petits Ruminant (PPR) : Acute and
highly contagious , similar to RP
 A gradual eastward geographical extension of
PPR :areas of West Africa to Horn of Africa
 There is uncertainty about the status of PPR in
Puntland state

3.  Little studies on the prevalence of PPR in sheep
and goats have been undertaken in this area.
 In 2003 , a serological survey on PPR was
conducted in Puntland by PACE Project.
 This present study is to retrieve and describe
the results of this survey

4. General objective
 To assess the status of PPR in Puntland
regions.
Specific objectives
 To obtain estimates of the prevalence of PPR
in Small ruminants in Puntland.
 To analyze Risk factors for PPR using
Multivariable logistic regression analysis
 To identify through mapping PPR endemic
areas in Puntland

5. •Livestock popu.:
estimated to be
17,464,180 animals
•35.4% sheep and
51.6% goats.
•Nomadic
pastoralism
•Semi arid with
average daily
temperatures from
27°C-37°C.

6.  Dataset containing relevant information has
been extracted ( 2003 Epidemiological survey)
 The survey retrieved data were analyzed using
the STATA IC ,version 11
 Logistic regression analysis was used to
identify potential risk factors( Animal level)
 Mapping & Spatial analysis using ArcGIS v9.3

7. Region Districts Population Prevalence
%(95% CI)
Bari Bayla 287 22( 17-26)
Bosaso 85 69( 60-79)
Kandala 152 40(32-48)
Iskushuban 372 32(27-37)
Ufeyn 68 81(72-90)
Qardho 424 9(6-12)
Total 1388 28(26-30)
Nugal Garowe 626 48( 44-52)
Eyl 222 24( 18-29)
Burtinle 184 51(44-58)
Dangoryo 323 15(11-19)
Total 1355 36( 34-39)
Mudug Galkacyo 524 30(26-34)
Jariiban 696 2(1-4)
Goldogob 84 29(19-38)
Total 1304 15( 10-200
Total 4047 27( 24-29)

8. Variable Description N % of factor %
positive
P
Species
Sheep
Goat
4046
1117
2929
100
27.6
72.4
20.1
29.2
0.000
Age
1-2
2
˃ 3
4046
1393
1611
1042
100
34.4
39.8
26
23.9
26
31.6
0,000
Sex
Male
Female
4046
1251
2795
100
31
69
24.3
27.9
0.009

9. Variable OR P 95%
Sex
Male
Female
Ref
-1.33 0.049
-1.23-0.93
Age
<2
2-3
≥3
Ref
0.12
0.43
0.137
0.00
-0.3-0.2
0.24-0.61
Species
Goat
Sheep
Shoat
Ref
-0.15
1.34
0.00
0.005
-0.3-0.001
1.05-1.28

10. FIG 1: Geographical distribution FIG2 : Density map of ppr in
Puntland

11.  PPR has been circulating in most of Puntland
 Prevalence estimates are likely to reflect
infection ( No vaccination campaigns)
 Despite the overall Prevalence (27%)
,prevalence is above 50% in some districts (
Significant differences are found b/w districts)
 Difficult to explain these differences (Diallo
,2007)

12.  PPR in Puntland appear to be high compared
to 22.4% (Turkey) and 6.4 % ( Ethiopia)
 Conversely , lower than 34% ( Somaliland) &
33% reported in India
 Difficult to draw any conclusions because of
differences in sampling procedures ( Okzul et
al., 2002)

13.  Higher antibody prevalence in goat
flocks(29%)than in sheep( 19%) ( P< 0.00)
 Goats are regarded as more susceptible to the
disease than sheep (Aklaku, 1980).
 Recovery rate of goats considerably less (
Shankar H. et al, 2004)

14.  Seroprevalence was significantly higher in
females than male animals (P< 0.05).
 In agreement with the findings of Agnes –
Waret S. et al.( 2008)
 Age specific prevalence increased with age
 Higher prev. animals ≥ three year . Agreement
with findings of Agnes Waret S. et al (2008)

15.  In spatial analysis , the most affected areas :
north western Bari & Western Nugal regions
neighboring Ethiopia and Somaliland to the
west
 consistent with the findings of Somaliland
SAHSP ( 2006)
 Close contact between infected and susceptible
populations( Coetzer & Tutsin ,2004)

16.  The PPR widely spread all over Puntland (27%)
 The prevalence of the disease might be higher
than it estimated in this present study
 sex, age groups and specie has shown
significant association between Seroprevalence
and these factors
 Density map produced(might not be a good
representative of the disease’s current
endemicity status)

17.  Improving the disease reporting and
emergence preparedness
 Awareness Campaign on PPR.
 Establish an annual vaccination program
 Regular surveillance & monitoring
 Further study on risk factor assessment

19. Dr.Ismail Kane : Thesis Advisor (DVM,
MSc).
Other Contributors : Dr. Abdullah Sheikh
Mohamed(PHD) , Nehemiah Ngeny,
Thomas Bazarasunga(PHD)
Special thanks to Terra Nouva East Africa
(TNE) for allowing data access.
Financial support : EU, Italian Cooperation
and DANIDA( ISTVS Project Donors )