Ever get the question “what budget does your channel need next year?” If so, this is the session for you! This session will teach you how to create performance forecasts decision makers will love, and clients truly need to help them grow; even when you don’t know your exact media budget just yet. Key Takeaways: Improving the accuracy of your forecasts Increase transparency and educate your colleagues about your channel Create one forecast that speaks to almost any budget scenario About the speaker – A digital marketing veteran, Derrick, is a currently a Paid Media Manager at Augurian. From e-commerce to Iraqi real estate, Derrick has seen it all and carries a special passion for connecting strategies, teams, and platforms to support business objectives. Speaker: Derrick Turner, Augurian

1. Have Confidence in Your Digital Marketing
Investments

2. • 9 Year SEM Veteran
• 1 Dog (Peanut) 
• Enjoys Camping & Fishing
• Collects Rocks
About Derrick: The Boring Stuff

3. Voted best fro in Fargo-Moorhead
(2002)
About Derrick: The Good Stuff

4. Most Exotic Product Sold on PPC:
Iraqi Real Estate
About Derrick: The Good Stuff

5. An Augur
Augurian helps modern day executives solve
critical marketing challenges, both strategic and
tactical, and take action.
• Organic Search (SEO)
• Assessments & Audits
• Site Risk Mitigation
• Paid Media (SEM)
• Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO)
• Measurement
• Build equity in your team through education
and training.

6. Adaptive Forecasting: Huh?

7. “Adaptive forecasting allows you to create one forecast
that speaks to a spectrum of scenarios.”

8. So, what is it actually?
An annualized CPA or CPL projection across potential tactics.
A projection that assumes you, like all good marketers, will ensure that your best performing tactics are fully funded first.
$0.00
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
$3,500.00
$4,000.00
$4,500.00
$5,000.00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
CPA
Total New Deals
CPA per deal

9. PHASE I
Gather Historical Data – Determine Scope
PHASE II
Outline Assumptions & Recalculate Data
PHASE III
Graph & Communicate Results
A Simple Process With Undeniable Results

10. • Find out what is available
 Impression Share, Total Lead Count, CPL = Good
 Impression Share, Total Acq. Count, CPA = Best
• Determine Scope (Digital or All Marketing?)
 Ask: Will this answer the questions being asked?
Phase 1 – Gather the Data!

11. Phase 1 – Gather the Data!
Campaign Conversions Cost/conv Search Impression Share Avg. position
PPC - Non-Brand 1234 59.11 53.64% 1.8
Linkedin 5 28.28 21.87%
Facebook Remarketing 15 24.67 <10%
PPC - Non-Brand 93 54.3 20.74% 2.6
PPC - Non-Brand 0 0 <10% 3.1
GDN - Remarketing 1 556.2 85.34%
Facebook Interest Targeting 14 50.63 <10%
Facebook Interest Targeting 8 60.78 15.16%
PPC - Brand 276 33.95 22.48% 2.8

12. Make Assumptions to Forecast Performance in an Ideal World
Reasons to Calculate Assumptions:
• 100% impression share
• Higher ad position
• Bing & Yahoo included in PPC
• Mid-year analytics discoveries (or tactic didn’t run full year)
• Awareness boosts from other channels
• New Geographies
Phase 2 – Outline Assumptions & Recalculate
State Campaign Conversions Cost/conv Search Impr Share Avg. position
Actual Non-Brand PPC - 123 1,234.40 59.11 53.64% 1.8
100% Impression Share Non-Brand PPC - 123 2301.27 59.11 100% 1.8
100% Impr Share + Yahoo! & Bing Non-Brand PPC - 123 2761.52 59.11 100% 1.8

13. Phase 2 – Complete the Spreadsheet
• Determine Lead Count Per Row Note: You’ll want at least 15 rows
• Enter in CPL/CPA Data
• Determine how many tactics you’d like to include
• Add calculating columns based on what you’d like to graph
Tactic Number of Leads Leads Per Row CPL Total Cost per 250 Leads Cumulative Cost Deals CPA per deal
Brand 250 250 $25 $6,250 $6,250 5.4 $1,157.41
Facebook LAL 500 250 $50 $12,500 $18,750 10.8 $1,736.11
Facebook LAL 750 250 $55 $13,750 $32,500 16.2 $2,006.17
Facebook Remarketing 1000 250 $60 $15,000 $47,500 21.6 $2,199.07
Linkedin Direct Response 1250 250 $75 $18,750 $66,250 27 $2,453.70
PPC Non-brand 1500 250 $100 $25,000 $91,250 32.4 $2,816.36
Facebook Interest Targeting 1750 250 $160 $40,000 $131,250 37.8 $3,472.22

14. Phase 3 – The Results
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
CostPer250Leads
Total Leads
Total Cost per 250 Incremental Leads

15. Phase 3 – The Results
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000
TotalDeals
Total Media Costs
Total Digital Media Cost for New Deals

16. Phase 3 – The Results
$0.00
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
$3,500.00
$4,000.00
$4,500.00
$5,000.00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
CPA
Total New Deals
CPA per deal

17. Beware!
• Wield this information wisely. Be authentic, communicate well, transparency is best.
• Don’t represent this forecast as perfect!
• Take inflation into account
• Be careful for seasonal tactics, use different calculation rules.
• Use care when taking into account tactics that have been turned off, or analyzing
accounts that have been restructured
• If keyword updates have drastically improved performance, don’t use the full year,
extrapolate the most recent data
• These projections assume that you’ll run these tactics over the entire next year. If you
run all tactics regardless of CPL, and use the budget you were given for an entire year
your numbers will not match.
• Optimization should bend cost curve down.
• Using for sales requires historical marketing data, if you don’t have this you run the risk of
potentially being very inaccurate.

18. Have Confidence