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CBRE RESEARCH
HUNGER FOR GROWTH
UNLOCKING
OPPORTUNITIES IN
HONG KONG
FOOD & BEVERAGE RETAIL
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
| 3
© CBRE Ltd. 2016CBRE Research
2 |
INTRODUCTION
In September 2015, a CBRE Research Major Report
entitled The Changing Retail Landscape – How
to Survive the Slowdown in Hong Kong explained
how the Hong Kong retail sector is undergoing a
structural transformation that will result in a more
balanced and sustainable market.
Total retail sales in Hong Kong have registered
a y-o-y decline in almost every month since late-
2014, with sales of big-ticket items such as watch
and jewellery recording a double-digit fall for 22
out of the past 30 months. Luxury brands and
tourist-oriented retail trades have scaled back
their operations, but mid-market retailers and
non-consumption goods-driven retail trades have
continued to expand. Shop landlords have become
increasingly flexible, with prime street shop rents
falling by an average of 23% since the market
peaked in Q3 2014.
In contrast to other retail trades, the food and
beverage (F&B) segment has weathered the
slowdown well, and retailers in this segment
retain a positive outlook towards expansion. This
major report explains why the F&B sector has
been so resilient; how the real estate sector has
responded to growing demand from F&B retailers;
and provides advice for retail landlords and F&B
tenants on how to unlock opportunities in what
will continue to be a very challenging market.
Figure 1: The "Retail Golden Decade" has gone
Source: Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016
Total Retail Sales Growth (LHS) Rental Index of Core Retail Locations (RHS)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
20042003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(Quarterly y-o-y% Growth)
Total Retail Sales High Street Retail Rental Index
in Core Locations
(1996 Q1= 100)
From Peak in Q3 2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
23%
CBRE Research
Hong Kong F&B Segment at a glanceHong Kong F&B Segment at a glance
Restaurants,
Estimated
Total Area
21,300
110
2015
mil
X
695
Super
Supreme
264
MICHELIN-
STARRED
RESTAURANTS
IN 2016
Local
Print & Online
Food & Drink
Magazines
60
Other Local
Periodicals
which carry
F&B Columns
or Features
140
FOOD
MAGAZINE
HK FOODAPPS
104.3
HK
bil
RECEIPTS
RESTAURANT
Long working hours
Packed living environment
Long opening hours of restaurants
Market breadth and depth
Eating out as a culture & lifestyle
Media & technology
Why F&B is popular in HK?
Ginza-style buildings & revitalized industrial buildings as alternative options
Fine-dining in premium Grade A office buildings
Emergence of eating and drinking hubs in neighbourhood areas
Larger share of F&B space in malls
How has the real estate sector responded?
Inelastic demand for food
Eating out culture beyond a necessity
Sustained packed living environment
Demographic changes
Better rental affordability of F&B operators
Strong government support
Good outlook for
the HK F&B sector
CBRE RESEARCH
This report was prepared by the CBRE Hong Kong Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research—a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate
to provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate.
© CBRE Ltd. 2016 Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not
verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is
presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.
Hunger for Growth
Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong F&B Retail
Hunger for Growth
Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong F&B Retail
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
6 | | 7
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
F&B – A MORE RESILIENT
SECTOR THAN GENERAL RETAIL
As food is a necessity, F&B sales are generally more
resilient during economic downturns. In addition,
unlike general retail trades, the F&B sector in Hong
Kong is less dependent on tourists, with meals
outside hotels consistently accounting for just 12%
of total visitor spending. While tourists’ spending on
consumption goods registered a significant increase
during the “Golden Decade” of Hong Kong retail
between 2004 and 2014, mainly due to the boom
in arrivals from Mainland China, spending on F&B
during that period remained at around 10%-15% of
their overall budget.
Unlike other retail trades, spending on F&B by
local consumers has remained stable over the past
decade. Median households allocate around 10%-
15% of their incomes on eating out, irrespective of
the economic cycle. A 2014 MasterCard survey on
Consumer Purchasing Priorities found that people
in Hong Kong spent the most among all Asia Pacific
cities on eating out.
Figure 2: Top 5 most favourite food of tourists
Figure 4: F&B spending is relatively inelastic
Source: Hong Kong Tourism Board, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016
Source: Hong Kong Tourism Board, CBRE Research, Q3 2016
Source: Hong Kong Tourism Board, Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research estimates, Q3 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mainland Visitors’ Budget on Food Overall Visitors’ Budget on Food
Mainland Visitors’ Budget on Shopping Overall Visitors’ Budget on Shopping
% of Total Overnight Tourists Spending
58% of Budget
Spent on Shopping
12% of Budget
Spent on Food
40 20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%0
10
5
15
20
25
30
35
HK$(‘000, per annum) (%)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Proportion of Annual Household Income Spent on FoodSpending on Meals outside Home per Household
Proportion of Annual Household Income Spent on Food (RHS)Spending on Meals outside Home per Household (LHS)
% of Overnight
Tourists Eating
% of Overnight
Tourists Eating
Dim Sum
Local HK
Style Food
78%
39%
27%
21%
18%
Seafood
Chained Store
Fast Food
Japanese Food
Figure 3: Tourists allocate more $ on shopping than food
These trends have helped the F&B sector weather the
retail slowdown remarkably well. Over the past six
years, total restaurant receipts have increased by a
Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.7% p.a.,
behind the 6.5% p.a. CAGR registered for total retail
sales. However, while total retail sales fell by 3.7%
y-o-y in 2015, restaurant receipts grew by a further
3.9% y-o-y. In H1 2016, total restaurant receipts
rose by a further 2.5% y-o-y. While this was below
the 4.3% y-o-y growth registered for H1 2015, it was
well in excess of the 10.5% fall in total retail sales
recorded over the same period.
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
8 | | 9
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Restaurant Receipts Index(LHS) No. of Licensed Restaurants(RHS)
Restaurant Receipts Index
(2000=100)
No. of Licensed Restaurants*
Growth in No. of Restaurants37%
Growth in Total Restaurants Receipts114%
Figure 5: F&B as a more resilient retail sector
Figure 7: Supply-driven growth of restaurant receipts
Source: Census & Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016
Individual Visitor Scheme
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Annual Growth (y-o-y %)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
H1
Total Retail Sales Total Restaurant Receipts
+6.5% CAGR
+3.7% CAGR
Total Retail Sales
Total Restaurant Receipts
2010 - 2015
Figure 6: Turnover driven restaurants enjoy stronger growth
Source: Census & Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016
100
90
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Restaurant Receipts Index
(4Q Moving Average) (Q1 2010=100)
2010 v.s. 2015
20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
BarsNon-Chinese RestaurantsFast Food ShopsOther Eating & Drinking Places Chinese Restaurants
Bars
Non-Chinese Restaurants
Fast Food Shops
Other Eating & Drinking Places Chinese Restaurants
13%
16%
29%
33%
50%
F&B categories with a high turnover rate have
recorded the strongest growth. In the six years to
2015, revenues of fast-food shops increased by a
CAGR of 4.9% p.a., while other eating and drinking
retailers such as coffee lounges and ice-cream
shops, rose by a CAGR of 7.0% p.a.. Conventional
restaurants, on the other hand, experienced slower
growth over the same period. Receipts of Chinese
and non-Chinese restaurants increased by a CAGR
of 2.5% and 4.4% p.a. between 2010 and 2015
respectively. The same trends have continued in
H1 2016, with fast food shops and other eating and
drinking retailers (up 6.6% y-o-y and 5.1% y-o-y,
respectively) eclipsing the performance of Chinese
and Non-Chinese restaurants (up 0.6% y-o-y and
2.4% y-o-y, respectively).
While the value of total restaurant receipts climbed
114% between 2003 and 2015, representing a CAGR
of 6% p.a., the corresponding growth in volume has
risen by 49% (3% p.a. CAGR). The same period saw
the number of licensed eateries increase by 37%,
highlighting the growth in consumer spending
in restaurants, despite food costs outside home
growing by 45% (2.9% p.a. CAGR).
Source: Food & Environmental Hygiene Department, Census & Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016
*Only restaurants/bars/clubs licensed by Food & Environmental Hygiene Department are counted
Sanjay Ponnapa – CEO and Founder of Fuel Espresso
We like Hong Kong! Although running
our business here is not cheap, the city
has offered us great opportunities,
supportive networks and a
sophisticated quality driven consumer
market. All of which have led to an
excellent platform for growth.
“
“
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
10 | | 11
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
A RAPIDLY EXPANDING
RESTAURANT INDUSTRY
THE LIVING ENVIRONMENT
Reasons why dining out is so popular in Hong Kong:
Typical office hours in Hong Kong run from 9
a.m. to 6 p.m. but working overtime is common.
A UBS report entitled Price & Earnings 2015
published in May 2016 found that Hong Kong
had the longest working week globally, at over
50 hours per week (2,606 hours annually). Long
working hours discourage households, particularly
those without a domestic helper, from spending
time and effort on preparing dinner at home. In
addition, the relatively short distance between
Secondly, due to high property prices and the
government’s focus on constructing more affordable
flats for the mass market, apartment sizes in Hong
Kong have shrunk in recent years. In the five years
to 2015, a total of 7,865 Class A (saleable area smaller
than 431 sq. ft.) flats were built, boosting the share
of this smallest dwelling class amongst newly
constructed apartments from 8% to 14% compared
with the previous five-year period to 2010. These
small flats typically feature open kitchens with
limited storage space for cooking utensils, and thus
do not facilitate cooking at home.
The crowded living environment in Hong Kong
makes it more suitable for people to organise social
gatherings outside. Large dinners with family
members and friends in restaurants are particularly
popular. This stands in contrast to overseas
markets where it is more practical for people to hold
celebrations or other social events at home.
Figure 8: Short travelling distance allows restaurants to have long business hours
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016
most office employees’ home, place of work
and entertainment spots allows them to access
restaurants conveniently. Furthermore, transport
networks in Hong Kong operate very late, which
means people can stay out late and do not need
to rush home. For example, the last MTR trains
depart at around 01:00am and there are more
than 40 overnight bus routes, thereby making it
possible for restaurants to stretch their business
hours and maximise revenues.
Mong Kok
Tseung Kwan O
Sheung Shui
1 HOUR
TRAVEL DISTANCE
Tuen Mun
Tung Chung
Wong Chuk Hang
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
12 | | 13
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
Figure 10: Hong Kong being a popular destination for global F&B operators
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016
Figure 9: Fast growing number of small apartment units in Hong Kong
Source: Rating & Valuation Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016
39%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
No. of New Class A Units % of Total Supply for The Corresponding Year
20042003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Completion of Class A Units(<431 sq.ft. Saleable Area)(LHS) Proportion of Total New Private Residential Supply(RHS)
8.1% of Total New Supply
4,563 Class A Units
2006 - 2010
14.3% of Total New Supply
7,865 Class A Units
2011 - 2015
AMERICAS
26
26
26
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
73
63
57
47
40
39
38
37
35
29
SEOUL
JAKARTA
VIENNA
MANILA
NEW DELHI
BANGKOK
PARIS
MADRID
HONG KONG
TOKYO
SINGAPORE
TAIPEI
MOSCOW
LONDON
DUBAI
BEIJING
BUCHAREST
DOHA
MEXICO CITY
TORONTO
EMEA APACAMERICAS
26
26
26
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
73
63
57
47
40
39
38
37
35
29
SEOUL
JAKARTA
VIENNA
MANILA
NEW DELHI
BANGKOK
PARIS
MADRID
HONG KONG
TOKYO
SINGAPORE
TAIPEI
MOSCOW
LONDON
DUBAI
BEIJING
BUCHAREST
DOHA
MEXICO CITY
TORONTO
EMEA APAC
of the 73 Were
Food & Beverage
37
THE MARKET BREADTH AND DEPTH
Established restaurant operators in Hong Kong
have been active in launching new restaurants in
recent years. Many groups are expanding the range
of cuisines they offer and launching new brands
to capture different segments of the market. This
strategy is motivating people to explore new eateries
and promoting food culture and dining out.
Leading Hong Kong chains such as Cafe de Coral,
Tai Hing, Fairwood and Maxim’s have all expanded
from their original fast-food and Chinese restaurant
businesses and branched out into casual dining
eateries. Other F&B groups such as JIA, Gaia and
Castelo Concepts offer a wide variety of Western
and Asian cuisines in Hong Kong at different price
points and formats.
A CBRE Research major report entitled How Global is the Business of Retail 2015 found that Hong Kong
attracted the highest number of new retailer entrants globally in 2015. Among the 73 new entrants, over
half (37 retailers) were F&B operators. The findings reflect Hong Kong’s continued status as a leading global
retail market and a hotspot for the F&B trade. In recent years, dining out has emerged as a leisure pursuit as
people have turned more willing to explore new restaurants and sample different types of cuisine.
Retailers from other sectors are gradually entering
the F&B industry. Lifestyle and luxury fashion
labels such as Agnès b., Alfred Dunhill, Armani and
Vivienne Westwood now all operate bars, coffee
shops or restaurants under their brand labels.
They see this as a way to market and advertise their
brand and diversify their source of income.
In recent years, international celebrity chefs such
as Jamie Oliver and Gordon Ramsay have opened
restaurants in Hong Kong, capitalising on their
high profile brand names.
CBRE Research
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
14 | | 15
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
Figure 11: Factors to support F&B sector growth in Hong Kong
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016
1
Source: The World Bank
MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY
Media has played a key role in promoting
gourmet culture in Hong Kong. In addition to the
numerous local food and cooking programmes on
television, recent years have seen the proliferation
of dining guides and gourmet magazines. There
are now over 60 local print and online food and
drink magazines published in Hong Kong and an
additional 140-plus other local periodicals which
carry F&B columns or features.
Technology is changing the landscape of the F&B
industry. In a city where mobile phone penetration
ranks second highest in the world1
, gourmet
focused websites and smartphone apps such as
OpenRice and U Food enable users to search and
review restaurants and are facilitating the creation
of a food and drink culture.
Growth
Factors
Hong Kong
F & B
Long
Working
Hours
Market Breadth
& Depth
Social
Gathering
Culture
Technology
Print Media & TV
Packed Living
Environment
OpenRice was ranked one of top five “must have”
apps for living in Hong Kong by the South China
Morning Post in 2015. Social media provides a
free platform for patrons to review and discuss
their experience at restaurants. There are over
100,000 #hkfoodie or related hashtags on
Instagram alone and close to 1 million dining
reviews on OpenRice.com.
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
16 | | 17
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
HOW HAS THE REAL ESTATE
SECTOR RESPONDED?
Commercial property landlords have supported
the growth of the F&B sector by allocating them
more space in appropriate locations. For example,
fast food chains and coffee shops that serve
homogenous food and drinks and depend highly
on turnover prefer to be located where foot traffic
is the highest, typically on high streets or at key
bearing points in shopping malls. In contrast,
conventional restaurants typically require larger
spaces, and are less sensitive to footfall as diners
usually plan their visits beforehand. The business
nature of conventional restaurants allows them to
be situated not only in traditional hot spots, but also
in locations that do not attract high footfall, such as
on the upper floors of shopping malls or in high-rise
commercial buildings.
Hong Kong is home to numerous pencil-type
commercial buildings and revitalised industrial
buildings equipped with floorplates and features
suitable for F&B tenants. High profile examples
include California Tower and the L. place in
Central, Midtown in Causeway Bay and The One
in Tsim Sha Tsui. These vertical retail or so-called
Ginza-style buildings help cluster restaurants
together and provide flexible layouts with unique
features such as private lift lobbies, ample daylight
and open city views. Depending on their location
and specifications, many offer space at more
attractive rents compared to street shops in
prime commercial districts. Drawbacks of these
options include crowded elevators at peak times,
poor visibility and a lack of shop frontage and
inadequate car parking spaces. Nevertheless, this
type of retail format is now firmly established in
Hong Kong. Among the four core retail submarkets,
circa 30% of the licensed F&B are located upstairs.
CBRE Research’s How Global is the Business
of Retail 2015 report also found that of the 37
international F&B operators which made their
debut in Hong Kong in 2015, eight opted to open
their first restaurant in a vertical-retail building.
Barbara Kukhno – Hong Kong Representative of Bulldozer Group
We enjoy being on upstairs! The
panoramic view, the terrace, the
privacy, you can never imagine
how much our customers like the
atmosphere up here. This is something
shopping malls and street shops
can never offer.
“
“
Recent years have seen the emergence of mid- to
high-end eating and drinking hubs in second-tier
high streets and in some neighbourhood areas.
Examples include Star Street in Wan Chai, High
Street in Sai Ying Pun, Davis Street in Kennedy
Town and Tang Lung Street in Causeway Bay.
The transformation of a neighbourhood area into
an F&B cluster is usually driven by demographic
changes, often stimulated by new residential and
commercial developments which attract a higher-
income population. These emerging clusters are
providing consumers and restaurant operators with
more options outside traditional retail districts.
Another noteworthy trend has seen landlords
incorporate fine-dining restaurants into premium
office buildings to raise the profile of their
properties while providing office tenants with
best-in-class restaurants under the same roof.
These floors usually command premium rents
over conventional retail space because of their
unobstructed views, open spaces, balconies
and sky gardens. Some are served by exclusive
passenger lifts. Of the 230 Grade A office buildings
in Hong Kong, nine have F&B floors. Iconic office
buildings with signature restaurants as tenants
include ICC in West Kowloon, One Peking in Tsim
Sha Tsui and Prince's Building in Central.
Figure 12: Upstairs retail as a mature operating format for F&B in Hong Kong
Source: Food & Environmental Hygiene Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016
Retail Format of Licensed F&B in Central, Causeway Bay, Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok
High Street Shops
52% Shopping Malls/
Retail Podiums
14%
Upstairs Retail
32%
Other Retail Formats
2%
18/F
23/F
12/F
CBRE Research
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
18 | | 19
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
In a market where general consumption demand is
softening, and partly to align with a global trend,
shopping mall landlords in Hong Kong are allocating
more space to F&B tenants. They see this as a
means by which to maintain footfall and enhance
turnover, and also as an opportunity to improve
the positioning of their malls. For example, Swire
Figure 14: Changing real estate landscape to facilitate growth of the Hong Kong F&B sector
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016
Figure 13: Latest emerging F&B clusters
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016
Shopping Malls
Vectical RetailGrade A Offices
New and emerging residential
and commercial clusters
Higher proportion of
F&B spaces in shopping malls
Ginza-type buildings and
revitalised industrial buildings
as alternative options
Fine dining in premium
Grade A office buildings
High Street Shops
18/F
23/F
12/F
Properties previously allocated 16% of the space in
Pacific Place to F&B tenants, but reportedly plans to
increase it to around 20%. Elsewhere, Harbour City
expects to complete its Ocean Terminal extension
in 2017 which will include a fine-dining zone with
commanding views of Victoria Harbour.
Kimberley Road
Tang Lung Street
Causeway Bay
Kennedy Town
Sai Ying Pun
Western Bars & Restaurants focus
Western Bars & Restaurants focus
Fusion, Hipster Restaurants focus
Japanese Ramen focus
Korean Cuisine focus
Wan Chai
Tsim Sha Tsui
Star Street
High Street
Davis Street
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
20 | | 21
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
OUTLOOK AND OPPORTUNITIES
The outlook for the Hong Kong F&B sector remains
upbeat for the following reasons:
Demand for food is relatively stable compared 	 	
with other discretionary consumption items
There is a growing gourmet culture in Hong Kong 	
which is pushing dining beyond a mere necessity
The crowded living environment will continue to 	
encourage eating out
Demographic changes resulting from the 	 	
development of new commercial areas is boosting 	
demand for dining hubs around these locations
Rents are falling while the range of spaces for 	
F&B operators is increasing
The government has pledged to maintain and 	
promote Hong Kong’s status as a gourmet hotspot
Substantial commercial development in several
districts over the next few years will provide
opportunities for F&B sector expansion. CBRE
Research forecasts that close to 4.7 million sq. ft. of
Grade A office space will be built in Kowloon East in
the five years to 2020, bringing an additional 44,000
white collar workers to the district. Another 10.6
million sq. ft. of Grade A office space is expected
to become available in the district upon the
development of greenfield sites currently with the
government. This will translate into a further 98,000
workers who will spend their days and nights in this
commercial hub comprising Kai Tak, Kowloon Bay
Figure15: Underlying demand for restaurants in upcoming commercial clusters
Source: CBRE Research estimates, Q3 2016
*Commercial space includes office, retail & hotel, in GFA
and Kwun Tong. Kai Tak, already home to a new
cruise terminal, will see an increase of close to
90,000 residents, along with the construction of a
sports stadium and more than 3,000 hotel rooms.
These new developments will drive strong demand
for both casual and business-grade F&B facilities.
While new commercial development in core
business districts remains limited, several sites in
New Central Harbourfront have been earmarked for
commercial development in the medium-term. Once
completed, these sites will have an estimated floor
area of over 2.8 million sq. ft., sufficient to expand
the working population in and around the CBD by
more than 15,000 people.
The emergence of West Kowloon into an art,
cultural, commercial and transportation hub will
provide significant opportunities for F&B operators.
The West Kowloon Cultural District (WKCD), which
is scheduled to open in phases from 2016, will form
one of the world’s largest cultural clusters and is
set to become a major tourist destination. The
Express Rail Link Terminus next to the WKCD will
serve high-speed trains connecting Hong Kong with
Shenzhen and Guangzhou and have circa 3 million
sq. ft. of commercial floor space.
New residential developments continue to be
constructed in emerging locations. The new towns
of Shatin, Tseung Kwan O and Tuen Mun will see
the strongest population growth by number in
the five years to 2021, driving strong demand for
neighbourhood F&B dining.
CBRE Research
Greater Central
Additional Commercial Space: 6.8 million sq. ft.
Extra Workforce: 52,000
West Kowloon Cultural District
Additional Commercial Space: 8.0 million sq. ft.
Extra Workforce: 21,000
Express Rail Link Terminus
Additional Commercial Space: 3.0 million sq. ft.
Extra Workforce: 28,000
Kowloon East
2016-2020
Additional Commercial Space: 4.7 million sq. ft.
Extra Workforce: 44,000
2020+
Additional Commercial Space: 10.6 million sq. ft.
Extra Workforce: 98,000
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
22 | | 23
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
Upcoming
Retail Format
in Core
Locations
(2016-2020)
Retail Tower
Vertical
57%
Retail Podium
8%
Shopping Mall
35%
Upcoming
Retail Podium/
Shopping Mall
(2016-2020)
Non-Core
88%
Causeway Bay
1%
Central
1%
Tsim Sha Tsui
10%
Mong Kok
1%
Upcoming
Retail Space
in Revitalised
Industrial
Buildings
Others
6%Kwai Chung
11%
Kowloon Bay
13%
Kwun Tong
33%
Cheung Sha Wan
23%
Tsuen Wan
14%
Figure 16: Distribution of future retail supply(by GFA)
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016
While almost 88% of the shopping arcades and
malls scheduled to be completed between 2016
and 2020 are located in non-core areas, over half
of the new retail supply (1.6 million sq. ft.) in the
four core districts of Central, Causeway Bay, Tsim
Sha Tsui and Mong Kok over the same period
will be in the format of vertical retail towers. In
addition, a total of 23 industrial revitalisation
projects have been approved for conversion to
retail facilities, providing 1.9 million sq. ft. GFA of
space. The majority of these conversion schemes
are in emerging commercial districts such as Kwun
Tong (33%), Cheung Sha Wan (23%), and Tsuen
Wan (14%). Such schemes will continue to provide
F&B operators with alternative space options
to traditional commercial areas where space in
conventional retail formats will remain limited.
CBRE Research
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
24 | | 25
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
William Lyon – CEO of Big Cat Group & Jamie's Italian
The retail sector in Hong Kong is going through a tough time. I have been told by
many that it will be last man standing, and those that come through this will be in a
fantastic position to capitalize on future opportunities. For F&B businesses in Hong
Kong this means ensuring one continues to maintain enduring relationships, and
none is more important than with your landlord.
“ “
The current market downcycle is
providing F&B operators with an
opportunity to negotiate better
lease terms and is hence the
ideal time for them to expand
their footprint. Taking up space in
emerging districts can be a cost
effective strategy.
For larger operators, basic food preparation
such as food cutting and washing can be done
outside restaurants. Establishing a centralised
kitchen in industrial premises can reduce food
processing and storage space in restaurants
which are typically in more expensive locations,
while ensuring better control over food quality.
Restaurants can differentiate
themselves by offering customers
an interactive dining experience
such as by enabling them to select
raw food, participate in the cooking
process and provide customised or
seasonal menus.
Installing open kitchens can enable
chefs to interact with their customers
directly. Consumers like to observe
the cooking process and share the
experience on social media.
RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR F&B OPERATORS
CBRE Research advises F&B operators to consider the following
strategies to capitalise on current market conditions and help
differentiate their restaurants from the competition:
1
2
3
4
CBRE Research © CBRE Ltd. 2016
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
CBRE Research
26 | | 27
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR RETAIL LANDLORDS
The transformation of the Hong Kong retail market has prompted retail shop landlords to become more
flexible towards rental levels and tenant selection. This change is structural and is likely to continue for the
foreseeable future. CBRE Research advises landlords to continue to be open-minded and consider signing
F&B operators as tenants. F&B tenants can provide retail landlords with better lease security as they
prefer longer leases to amortise the higher fit-out and equipment costs. In addition, bars and restaurants
guarantee footfall and benefit other retailers, particularly in the case of shopping malls.
CBRE Research advises retail landlords to consider the following strategies to capitalise on the growth of
F&B retail and increase the appeal of their properties to such tenants:
CBRE Research
In densely populated locations where the rental income from
leasing smaller commercial buildings to office tenants may not
be substantial, landlords can consider converting their premises
to Ginza-retail buildings to maximise rental returns. F&B floors in
less prominent commercial buildings in Wan Chai, Causeway Bay,
Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok can typically achieve a 20+% rental
premium over office floors.
Landlords should keep informed of the latest gourmet trends.
Categories such as burgers, ice-cream, yogurt and waffles have seen
tremendous growth in the number of operators in recent years. However,
inexperienced operators often fail to survive in what is a very competitive
environment. Landlords are therefore advised to carry out sufficient due
diligence on potential tenants’ track record to minimise risks.
For properties which can be converted to Ginza-retail buildings,
landlords are advised to equip them with the necessary technical
features relating to floor loading, ceiling height, utilities provision,
water and exhausted gas supply and disposal, and evacuation
compliance to suit the requirements of F&B tenants. Particular
attention should be paid to elevators so as to ensure sufficient and
timely access for patrons and other tenants in the property. Buildings
with balconies and rooftops will be particularly sought after by F&B
operators. Landlords of Ginza-retail buildings can also consider
providing facades or signage to help promote tenants’ visibility.
1
2
3
Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities Hong Kong in Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
For more information about this report, please contact:
To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at
www.cbre.com/researchgateway
CBRE RESEARCH
This report was prepared by the CBRE Hong Kong Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research—a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate
to provide real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe.
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein,
including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy,
we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance,
accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only exclusively for CBRE
clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to,
copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research
reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information
in this publication.
Printed on recycled paper
© CBRE Ltd. 2016
For more information regarding CBRE Research, please contact:
Follow CBRE
Joe Lin
Executive Director,
Advisory & Transaction Services
Retail
+852 2820 2860
joe.lin@cbre.com.hk
Marcos Chan
Head of Research,
Hong Kong, Southern China & Taiwan
+852 2820 2886
marcos.chan@cbre.com.hk
Nicola Tang
Associate Director,
Advisory & Transaction Services
Retail
+852 2820 1479
nicola.tang@cbre.com.hk
Sharon Chan
Associate Director, Research
Hong Kong
+852 2820 2841
sharon.chan@cbre.com.hk
Jerry Ng
Manager, Research
Hong Kong
+852 2820 1517
jerry.ng@cbre.com.hk
Peter Leung
Analyst, Research
Hong Kong
+852 2820 1492
peter.leung@cbre.com.hk
Nick Axford, Ph.D.
Global Head of Research
+44 20 7182 2876
nick.axford@cbre.com
Henry Chin, Ph.D.
Head of Research, Asia Pacific
+852 2820 8160
henry.chin@cbre.com.hk
Richard Barkham, Ph.D., MRICS
Global Chief Economist
+44 0 20 7182 2665
richard.barkham@cbre.com
Neil Blake, Ph.D.
Head of Research, EMEA
+44 20 7182 2133
neil.blake@cbre.com
Follow Neil on Twitter: @neilblake123
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Head of Research, Americas
+1 410 951 8443
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Follow Spencer on Twitter: @SpencerGLevy

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RSH_2778_Hunger for Growth_Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong F&B Retail

  • 1. CBRE RESEARCH HUNGER FOR GROWTH UNLOCKING OPPORTUNITIES IN HONG KONG FOOD & BEVERAGE RETAIL
  • 2. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail | 3 © CBRE Ltd. 2016CBRE Research 2 | INTRODUCTION In September 2015, a CBRE Research Major Report entitled The Changing Retail Landscape – How to Survive the Slowdown in Hong Kong explained how the Hong Kong retail sector is undergoing a structural transformation that will result in a more balanced and sustainable market. Total retail sales in Hong Kong have registered a y-o-y decline in almost every month since late- 2014, with sales of big-ticket items such as watch and jewellery recording a double-digit fall for 22 out of the past 30 months. Luxury brands and tourist-oriented retail trades have scaled back their operations, but mid-market retailers and non-consumption goods-driven retail trades have continued to expand. Shop landlords have become increasingly flexible, with prime street shop rents falling by an average of 23% since the market peaked in Q3 2014. In contrast to other retail trades, the food and beverage (F&B) segment has weathered the slowdown well, and retailers in this segment retain a positive outlook towards expansion. This major report explains why the F&B sector has been so resilient; how the real estate sector has responded to growing demand from F&B retailers; and provides advice for retail landlords and F&B tenants on how to unlock opportunities in what will continue to be a very challenging market. Figure 1: The "Retail Golden Decade" has gone Source: Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016 Total Retail Sales Growth (LHS) Rental Index of Core Retail Locations (RHS) -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 20042003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Quarterly y-o-y% Growth) Total Retail Sales High Street Retail Rental Index in Core Locations (1996 Q1= 100) From Peak in Q3 2014 0 50 100 150 200 250 23% CBRE Research
  • 3. Hong Kong F&B Segment at a glanceHong Kong F&B Segment at a glance Restaurants, Estimated Total Area 21,300 110 2015 mil X 695 Super Supreme 264 MICHELIN- STARRED RESTAURANTS IN 2016 Local Print & Online Food & Drink Magazines 60 Other Local Periodicals which carry F&B Columns or Features 140 FOOD MAGAZINE HK FOODAPPS 104.3 HK bil RECEIPTS RESTAURANT Long working hours Packed living environment Long opening hours of restaurants Market breadth and depth Eating out as a culture & lifestyle Media & technology Why F&B is popular in HK? Ginza-style buildings & revitalized industrial buildings as alternative options Fine-dining in premium Grade A office buildings Emergence of eating and drinking hubs in neighbourhood areas Larger share of F&B space in malls How has the real estate sector responded? Inelastic demand for food Eating out culture beyond a necessity Sustained packed living environment Demographic changes Better rental affordability of F&B operators Strong government support Good outlook for the HK F&B sector CBRE RESEARCH This report was prepared by the CBRE Hong Kong Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research—a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate. © CBRE Ltd. 2016 Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. Hunger for Growth Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong F&B Retail Hunger for Growth Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong F&B Retail
  • 4. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 6 | | 7 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 F&B – A MORE RESILIENT SECTOR THAN GENERAL RETAIL As food is a necessity, F&B sales are generally more resilient during economic downturns. In addition, unlike general retail trades, the F&B sector in Hong Kong is less dependent on tourists, with meals outside hotels consistently accounting for just 12% of total visitor spending. While tourists’ spending on consumption goods registered a significant increase during the “Golden Decade” of Hong Kong retail between 2004 and 2014, mainly due to the boom in arrivals from Mainland China, spending on F&B during that period remained at around 10%-15% of their overall budget. Unlike other retail trades, spending on F&B by local consumers has remained stable over the past decade. Median households allocate around 10%- 15% of their incomes on eating out, irrespective of the economic cycle. A 2014 MasterCard survey on Consumer Purchasing Priorities found that people in Hong Kong spent the most among all Asia Pacific cities on eating out. Figure 2: Top 5 most favourite food of tourists Figure 4: F&B spending is relatively inelastic Source: Hong Kong Tourism Board, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016 Source: Hong Kong Tourism Board, CBRE Research, Q3 2016 Source: Hong Kong Tourism Board, Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research estimates, Q3 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mainland Visitors’ Budget on Food Overall Visitors’ Budget on Food Mainland Visitors’ Budget on Shopping Overall Visitors’ Budget on Shopping % of Total Overnight Tourists Spending 58% of Budget Spent on Shopping 12% of Budget Spent on Food 40 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0%0 10 5 15 20 25 30 35 HK$(‘000, per annum) (%) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proportion of Annual Household Income Spent on FoodSpending on Meals outside Home per Household Proportion of Annual Household Income Spent on Food (RHS)Spending on Meals outside Home per Household (LHS) % of Overnight Tourists Eating % of Overnight Tourists Eating Dim Sum Local HK Style Food 78% 39% 27% 21% 18% Seafood Chained Store Fast Food Japanese Food Figure 3: Tourists allocate more $ on shopping than food These trends have helped the F&B sector weather the retail slowdown remarkably well. Over the past six years, total restaurant receipts have increased by a Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.7% p.a., behind the 6.5% p.a. CAGR registered for total retail sales. However, while total retail sales fell by 3.7% y-o-y in 2015, restaurant receipts grew by a further 3.9% y-o-y. In H1 2016, total restaurant receipts rose by a further 2.5% y-o-y. While this was below the 4.3% y-o-y growth registered for H1 2015, it was well in excess of the 10.5% fall in total retail sales recorded over the same period.
  • 5. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 8 | | 9 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Restaurant Receipts Index(LHS) No. of Licensed Restaurants(RHS) Restaurant Receipts Index (2000=100) No. of Licensed Restaurants* Growth in No. of Restaurants37% Growth in Total Restaurants Receipts114% Figure 5: F&B as a more resilient retail sector Figure 7: Supply-driven growth of restaurant receipts Source: Census & Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016 Individual Visitor Scheme -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Annual Growth (y-o-y %) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 Total Retail Sales Total Restaurant Receipts +6.5% CAGR +3.7% CAGR Total Retail Sales Total Restaurant Receipts 2010 - 2015 Figure 6: Turnover driven restaurants enjoy stronger growth Source: Census & Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016 100 90 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Restaurant Receipts Index (4Q Moving Average) (Q1 2010=100) 2010 v.s. 2015 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BarsNon-Chinese RestaurantsFast Food ShopsOther Eating & Drinking Places Chinese Restaurants Bars Non-Chinese Restaurants Fast Food Shops Other Eating & Drinking Places Chinese Restaurants 13% 16% 29% 33% 50% F&B categories with a high turnover rate have recorded the strongest growth. In the six years to 2015, revenues of fast-food shops increased by a CAGR of 4.9% p.a., while other eating and drinking retailers such as coffee lounges and ice-cream shops, rose by a CAGR of 7.0% p.a.. Conventional restaurants, on the other hand, experienced slower growth over the same period. Receipts of Chinese and non-Chinese restaurants increased by a CAGR of 2.5% and 4.4% p.a. between 2010 and 2015 respectively. The same trends have continued in H1 2016, with fast food shops and other eating and drinking retailers (up 6.6% y-o-y and 5.1% y-o-y, respectively) eclipsing the performance of Chinese and Non-Chinese restaurants (up 0.6% y-o-y and 2.4% y-o-y, respectively). While the value of total restaurant receipts climbed 114% between 2003 and 2015, representing a CAGR of 6% p.a., the corresponding growth in volume has risen by 49% (3% p.a. CAGR). The same period saw the number of licensed eateries increase by 37%, highlighting the growth in consumer spending in restaurants, despite food costs outside home growing by 45% (2.9% p.a. CAGR). Source: Food & Environmental Hygiene Department, Census & Statistics Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016 *Only restaurants/bars/clubs licensed by Food & Environmental Hygiene Department are counted Sanjay Ponnapa – CEO and Founder of Fuel Espresso We like Hong Kong! Although running our business here is not cheap, the city has offered us great opportunities, supportive networks and a sophisticated quality driven consumer market. All of which have led to an excellent platform for growth. “ “ Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail
  • 6. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 10 | | 11 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 A RAPIDLY EXPANDING RESTAURANT INDUSTRY THE LIVING ENVIRONMENT Reasons why dining out is so popular in Hong Kong: Typical office hours in Hong Kong run from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. but working overtime is common. A UBS report entitled Price & Earnings 2015 published in May 2016 found that Hong Kong had the longest working week globally, at over 50 hours per week (2,606 hours annually). Long working hours discourage households, particularly those without a domestic helper, from spending time and effort on preparing dinner at home. In addition, the relatively short distance between Secondly, due to high property prices and the government’s focus on constructing more affordable flats for the mass market, apartment sizes in Hong Kong have shrunk in recent years. In the five years to 2015, a total of 7,865 Class A (saleable area smaller than 431 sq. ft.) flats were built, boosting the share of this smallest dwelling class amongst newly constructed apartments from 8% to 14% compared with the previous five-year period to 2010. These small flats typically feature open kitchens with limited storage space for cooking utensils, and thus do not facilitate cooking at home. The crowded living environment in Hong Kong makes it more suitable for people to organise social gatherings outside. Large dinners with family members and friends in restaurants are particularly popular. This stands in contrast to overseas markets where it is more practical for people to hold celebrations or other social events at home. Figure 8: Short travelling distance allows restaurants to have long business hours Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016 most office employees’ home, place of work and entertainment spots allows them to access restaurants conveniently. Furthermore, transport networks in Hong Kong operate very late, which means people can stay out late and do not need to rush home. For example, the last MTR trains depart at around 01:00am and there are more than 40 overnight bus routes, thereby making it possible for restaurants to stretch their business hours and maximise revenues. Mong Kok Tseung Kwan O Sheung Shui 1 HOUR TRAVEL DISTANCE Tuen Mun Tung Chung Wong Chuk Hang
  • 7. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 12 | | 13 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 Figure 10: Hong Kong being a popular destination for global F&B operators Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016 Figure 9: Fast growing number of small apartment units in Hong Kong Source: Rating & Valuation Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016 39% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 No. of New Class A Units % of Total Supply for The Corresponding Year 20042003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Completion of Class A Units(<431 sq.ft. Saleable Area)(LHS) Proportion of Total New Private Residential Supply(RHS) 8.1% of Total New Supply 4,563 Class A Units 2006 - 2010 14.3% of Total New Supply 7,865 Class A Units 2011 - 2015 AMERICAS 26 26 26 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 73 63 57 47 40 39 38 37 35 29 SEOUL JAKARTA VIENNA MANILA NEW DELHI BANGKOK PARIS MADRID HONG KONG TOKYO SINGAPORE TAIPEI MOSCOW LONDON DUBAI BEIJING BUCHAREST DOHA MEXICO CITY TORONTO EMEA APACAMERICAS 26 26 26 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 73 63 57 47 40 39 38 37 35 29 SEOUL JAKARTA VIENNA MANILA NEW DELHI BANGKOK PARIS MADRID HONG KONG TOKYO SINGAPORE TAIPEI MOSCOW LONDON DUBAI BEIJING BUCHAREST DOHA MEXICO CITY TORONTO EMEA APAC of the 73 Were Food & Beverage 37 THE MARKET BREADTH AND DEPTH Established restaurant operators in Hong Kong have been active in launching new restaurants in recent years. Many groups are expanding the range of cuisines they offer and launching new brands to capture different segments of the market. This strategy is motivating people to explore new eateries and promoting food culture and dining out. Leading Hong Kong chains such as Cafe de Coral, Tai Hing, Fairwood and Maxim’s have all expanded from their original fast-food and Chinese restaurant businesses and branched out into casual dining eateries. Other F&B groups such as JIA, Gaia and Castelo Concepts offer a wide variety of Western and Asian cuisines in Hong Kong at different price points and formats. A CBRE Research major report entitled How Global is the Business of Retail 2015 found that Hong Kong attracted the highest number of new retailer entrants globally in 2015. Among the 73 new entrants, over half (37 retailers) were F&B operators. The findings reflect Hong Kong’s continued status as a leading global retail market and a hotspot for the F&B trade. In recent years, dining out has emerged as a leisure pursuit as people have turned more willing to explore new restaurants and sample different types of cuisine. Retailers from other sectors are gradually entering the F&B industry. Lifestyle and luxury fashion labels such as Agnès b., Alfred Dunhill, Armani and Vivienne Westwood now all operate bars, coffee shops or restaurants under their brand labels. They see this as a way to market and advertise their brand and diversify their source of income. In recent years, international celebrity chefs such as Jamie Oliver and Gordon Ramsay have opened restaurants in Hong Kong, capitalising on their high profile brand names. CBRE Research
  • 8. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 14 | | 15 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 Figure 11: Factors to support F&B sector growth in Hong Kong Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016 1 Source: The World Bank MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY Media has played a key role in promoting gourmet culture in Hong Kong. In addition to the numerous local food and cooking programmes on television, recent years have seen the proliferation of dining guides and gourmet magazines. There are now over 60 local print and online food and drink magazines published in Hong Kong and an additional 140-plus other local periodicals which carry F&B columns or features. Technology is changing the landscape of the F&B industry. In a city where mobile phone penetration ranks second highest in the world1 , gourmet focused websites and smartphone apps such as OpenRice and U Food enable users to search and review restaurants and are facilitating the creation of a food and drink culture. Growth Factors Hong Kong F & B Long Working Hours Market Breadth & Depth Social Gathering Culture Technology Print Media & TV Packed Living Environment OpenRice was ranked one of top five “must have” apps for living in Hong Kong by the South China Morning Post in 2015. Social media provides a free platform for patrons to review and discuss their experience at restaurants. There are over 100,000 #hkfoodie or related hashtags on Instagram alone and close to 1 million dining reviews on OpenRice.com. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail © CBRE Ltd. 2016
  • 9. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 16 | | 17 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 HOW HAS THE REAL ESTATE SECTOR RESPONDED? Commercial property landlords have supported the growth of the F&B sector by allocating them more space in appropriate locations. For example, fast food chains and coffee shops that serve homogenous food and drinks and depend highly on turnover prefer to be located where foot traffic is the highest, typically on high streets or at key bearing points in shopping malls. In contrast, conventional restaurants typically require larger spaces, and are less sensitive to footfall as diners usually plan their visits beforehand. The business nature of conventional restaurants allows them to be situated not only in traditional hot spots, but also in locations that do not attract high footfall, such as on the upper floors of shopping malls or in high-rise commercial buildings. Hong Kong is home to numerous pencil-type commercial buildings and revitalised industrial buildings equipped with floorplates and features suitable for F&B tenants. High profile examples include California Tower and the L. place in Central, Midtown in Causeway Bay and The One in Tsim Sha Tsui. These vertical retail or so-called Ginza-style buildings help cluster restaurants together and provide flexible layouts with unique features such as private lift lobbies, ample daylight and open city views. Depending on their location and specifications, many offer space at more attractive rents compared to street shops in prime commercial districts. Drawbacks of these options include crowded elevators at peak times, poor visibility and a lack of shop frontage and inadequate car parking spaces. Nevertheless, this type of retail format is now firmly established in Hong Kong. Among the four core retail submarkets, circa 30% of the licensed F&B are located upstairs. CBRE Research’s How Global is the Business of Retail 2015 report also found that of the 37 international F&B operators which made their debut in Hong Kong in 2015, eight opted to open their first restaurant in a vertical-retail building. Barbara Kukhno – Hong Kong Representative of Bulldozer Group We enjoy being on upstairs! The panoramic view, the terrace, the privacy, you can never imagine how much our customers like the atmosphere up here. This is something shopping malls and street shops can never offer. “ “ Recent years have seen the emergence of mid- to high-end eating and drinking hubs in second-tier high streets and in some neighbourhood areas. Examples include Star Street in Wan Chai, High Street in Sai Ying Pun, Davis Street in Kennedy Town and Tang Lung Street in Causeway Bay. The transformation of a neighbourhood area into an F&B cluster is usually driven by demographic changes, often stimulated by new residential and commercial developments which attract a higher- income population. These emerging clusters are providing consumers and restaurant operators with more options outside traditional retail districts. Another noteworthy trend has seen landlords incorporate fine-dining restaurants into premium office buildings to raise the profile of their properties while providing office tenants with best-in-class restaurants under the same roof. These floors usually command premium rents over conventional retail space because of their unobstructed views, open spaces, balconies and sky gardens. Some are served by exclusive passenger lifts. Of the 230 Grade A office buildings in Hong Kong, nine have F&B floors. Iconic office buildings with signature restaurants as tenants include ICC in West Kowloon, One Peking in Tsim Sha Tsui and Prince's Building in Central. Figure 12: Upstairs retail as a mature operating format for F&B in Hong Kong Source: Food & Environmental Hygiene Department, HKSAR, CBRE Research, Q3 2016 Retail Format of Licensed F&B in Central, Causeway Bay, Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok High Street Shops 52% Shopping Malls/ Retail Podiums 14% Upstairs Retail 32% Other Retail Formats 2% 18/F 23/F 12/F CBRE Research
  • 10. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 18 | | 19 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 In a market where general consumption demand is softening, and partly to align with a global trend, shopping mall landlords in Hong Kong are allocating more space to F&B tenants. They see this as a means by which to maintain footfall and enhance turnover, and also as an opportunity to improve the positioning of their malls. For example, Swire Figure 14: Changing real estate landscape to facilitate growth of the Hong Kong F&B sector Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016 Figure 13: Latest emerging F&B clusters Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016 Shopping Malls Vectical RetailGrade A Offices New and emerging residential and commercial clusters Higher proportion of F&B spaces in shopping malls Ginza-type buildings and revitalised industrial buildings as alternative options Fine dining in premium Grade A office buildings High Street Shops 18/F 23/F 12/F Properties previously allocated 16% of the space in Pacific Place to F&B tenants, but reportedly plans to increase it to around 20%. Elsewhere, Harbour City expects to complete its Ocean Terminal extension in 2017 which will include a fine-dining zone with commanding views of Victoria Harbour. Kimberley Road Tang Lung Street Causeway Bay Kennedy Town Sai Ying Pun Western Bars & Restaurants focus Western Bars & Restaurants focus Fusion, Hipster Restaurants focus Japanese Ramen focus Korean Cuisine focus Wan Chai Tsim Sha Tsui Star Street High Street Davis Street
  • 11. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 20 | | 21 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 OUTLOOK AND OPPORTUNITIES The outlook for the Hong Kong F&B sector remains upbeat for the following reasons: Demand for food is relatively stable compared with other discretionary consumption items There is a growing gourmet culture in Hong Kong which is pushing dining beyond a mere necessity The crowded living environment will continue to encourage eating out Demographic changes resulting from the development of new commercial areas is boosting demand for dining hubs around these locations Rents are falling while the range of spaces for F&B operators is increasing The government has pledged to maintain and promote Hong Kong’s status as a gourmet hotspot Substantial commercial development in several districts over the next few years will provide opportunities for F&B sector expansion. CBRE Research forecasts that close to 4.7 million sq. ft. of Grade A office space will be built in Kowloon East in the five years to 2020, bringing an additional 44,000 white collar workers to the district. Another 10.6 million sq. ft. of Grade A office space is expected to become available in the district upon the development of greenfield sites currently with the government. This will translate into a further 98,000 workers who will spend their days and nights in this commercial hub comprising Kai Tak, Kowloon Bay Figure15: Underlying demand for restaurants in upcoming commercial clusters Source: CBRE Research estimates, Q3 2016 *Commercial space includes office, retail & hotel, in GFA and Kwun Tong. Kai Tak, already home to a new cruise terminal, will see an increase of close to 90,000 residents, along with the construction of a sports stadium and more than 3,000 hotel rooms. These new developments will drive strong demand for both casual and business-grade F&B facilities. While new commercial development in core business districts remains limited, several sites in New Central Harbourfront have been earmarked for commercial development in the medium-term. Once completed, these sites will have an estimated floor area of over 2.8 million sq. ft., sufficient to expand the working population in and around the CBD by more than 15,000 people. The emergence of West Kowloon into an art, cultural, commercial and transportation hub will provide significant opportunities for F&B operators. The West Kowloon Cultural District (WKCD), which is scheduled to open in phases from 2016, will form one of the world’s largest cultural clusters and is set to become a major tourist destination. The Express Rail Link Terminus next to the WKCD will serve high-speed trains connecting Hong Kong with Shenzhen and Guangzhou and have circa 3 million sq. ft. of commercial floor space. New residential developments continue to be constructed in emerging locations. The new towns of Shatin, Tseung Kwan O and Tuen Mun will see the strongest population growth by number in the five years to 2021, driving strong demand for neighbourhood F&B dining. CBRE Research Greater Central Additional Commercial Space: 6.8 million sq. ft. Extra Workforce: 52,000 West Kowloon Cultural District Additional Commercial Space: 8.0 million sq. ft. Extra Workforce: 21,000 Express Rail Link Terminus Additional Commercial Space: 3.0 million sq. ft. Extra Workforce: 28,000 Kowloon East 2016-2020 Additional Commercial Space: 4.7 million sq. ft. Extra Workforce: 44,000 2020+ Additional Commercial Space: 10.6 million sq. ft. Extra Workforce: 98,000
  • 12. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 22 | | 23 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 Upcoming Retail Format in Core Locations (2016-2020) Retail Tower Vertical 57% Retail Podium 8% Shopping Mall 35% Upcoming Retail Podium/ Shopping Mall (2016-2020) Non-Core 88% Causeway Bay 1% Central 1% Tsim Sha Tsui 10% Mong Kok 1% Upcoming Retail Space in Revitalised Industrial Buildings Others 6%Kwai Chung 11% Kowloon Bay 13% Kwun Tong 33% Cheung Sha Wan 23% Tsuen Wan 14% Figure 16: Distribution of future retail supply(by GFA) Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2016 While almost 88% of the shopping arcades and malls scheduled to be completed between 2016 and 2020 are located in non-core areas, over half of the new retail supply (1.6 million sq. ft.) in the four core districts of Central, Causeway Bay, Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok over the same period will be in the format of vertical retail towers. In addition, a total of 23 industrial revitalisation projects have been approved for conversion to retail facilities, providing 1.9 million sq. ft. GFA of space. The majority of these conversion schemes are in emerging commercial districts such as Kwun Tong (33%), Cheung Sha Wan (23%), and Tsuen Wan (14%). Such schemes will continue to provide F&B operators with alternative space options to traditional commercial areas where space in conventional retail formats will remain limited. CBRE Research
  • 13. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 24 | | 25 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 William Lyon – CEO of Big Cat Group & Jamie's Italian The retail sector in Hong Kong is going through a tough time. I have been told by many that it will be last man standing, and those that come through this will be in a fantastic position to capitalize on future opportunities. For F&B businesses in Hong Kong this means ensuring one continues to maintain enduring relationships, and none is more important than with your landlord. “ “ The current market downcycle is providing F&B operators with an opportunity to negotiate better lease terms and is hence the ideal time for them to expand their footprint. Taking up space in emerging districts can be a cost effective strategy. For larger operators, basic food preparation such as food cutting and washing can be done outside restaurants. Establishing a centralised kitchen in industrial premises can reduce food processing and storage space in restaurants which are typically in more expensive locations, while ensuring better control over food quality. Restaurants can differentiate themselves by offering customers an interactive dining experience such as by enabling them to select raw food, participate in the cooking process and provide customised or seasonal menus. Installing open kitchens can enable chefs to interact with their customers directly. Consumers like to observe the cooking process and share the experience on social media. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR F&B OPERATORS CBRE Research advises F&B operators to consider the following strategies to capitalise on current market conditions and help differentiate their restaurants from the competition: 1 2 3 4 CBRE Research © CBRE Ltd. 2016
  • 14. Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail CBRE Research 26 | | 27 © CBRE Ltd. 2016 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RETAIL LANDLORDS The transformation of the Hong Kong retail market has prompted retail shop landlords to become more flexible towards rental levels and tenant selection. This change is structural and is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. CBRE Research advises landlords to continue to be open-minded and consider signing F&B operators as tenants. F&B tenants can provide retail landlords with better lease security as they prefer longer leases to amortise the higher fit-out and equipment costs. In addition, bars and restaurants guarantee footfall and benefit other retailers, particularly in the case of shopping malls. CBRE Research advises retail landlords to consider the following strategies to capitalise on the growth of F&B retail and increase the appeal of their properties to such tenants: CBRE Research In densely populated locations where the rental income from leasing smaller commercial buildings to office tenants may not be substantial, landlords can consider converting their premises to Ginza-retail buildings to maximise rental returns. F&B floors in less prominent commercial buildings in Wan Chai, Causeway Bay, Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok can typically achieve a 20+% rental premium over office floors. Landlords should keep informed of the latest gourmet trends. Categories such as burgers, ice-cream, yogurt and waffles have seen tremendous growth in the number of operators in recent years. However, inexperienced operators often fail to survive in what is a very competitive environment. Landlords are therefore advised to carry out sufficient due diligence on potential tenants’ track record to minimise risks. For properties which can be converted to Ginza-retail buildings, landlords are advised to equip them with the necessary technical features relating to floor loading, ceiling height, utilities provision, water and exhausted gas supply and disposal, and evacuation compliance to suit the requirements of F&B tenants. Particular attention should be paid to elevators so as to ensure sufficient and timely access for patrons and other tenants in the property. Buildings with balconies and rooftops will be particularly sought after by F&B operators. Landlords of Ginza-retail buildings can also consider providing facades or signage to help promote tenants’ visibility. 1 2 3 Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities Hong Kong in Food & Beverage Retail Hunger for Growth – Unlocking Opportunities in Hong Kong Food & Beverage Retail © CBRE Ltd. 2016
  • 15. For more information about this report, please contact: To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at www.cbre.com/researchgateway CBRE RESEARCH This report was prepared by the CBRE Hong Kong Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research—a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate to provide real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication. Printed on recycled paper © CBRE Ltd. 2016 For more information regarding CBRE Research, please contact: Follow CBRE Joe Lin Executive Director, Advisory & Transaction Services Retail +852 2820 2860 joe.lin@cbre.com.hk Marcos Chan Head of Research, Hong Kong, Southern China & Taiwan +852 2820 2886 marcos.chan@cbre.com.hk Nicola Tang Associate Director, Advisory & Transaction Services Retail +852 2820 1479 nicola.tang@cbre.com.hk Sharon Chan Associate Director, Research Hong Kong +852 2820 2841 sharon.chan@cbre.com.hk Jerry Ng Manager, Research Hong Kong +852 2820 1517 jerry.ng@cbre.com.hk Peter Leung Analyst, Research Hong Kong +852 2820 1492 peter.leung@cbre.com.hk Nick Axford, Ph.D. Global Head of Research +44 20 7182 2876 nick.axford@cbre.com Henry Chin, Ph.D. Head of Research, Asia Pacific +852 2820 8160 henry.chin@cbre.com.hk Richard Barkham, Ph.D., MRICS Global Chief Economist +44 0 20 7182 2665 richard.barkham@cbre.com Neil Blake, Ph.D. Head of Research, EMEA +44 20 7182 2133 neil.blake@cbre.com Follow Neil on Twitter: @neilblake123 Spencer Levy Head of Research, Americas +1 410 951 8443 spencer.levy@cbre.com Follow Spencer on Twitter: @SpencerGLevy