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The Hidden Wealth of Nations: applying to policy David Halpern No10 / Cabinet Office Copenhagen 13 th   October 2011 UNCLASSIFIED
The UK tends to achieve mid-rankings among OECD nations for governance SGI Management Index UNCLASSIFIED
Denmark is consistently among the top UNCLASSIFIED
UK spends less...  The Bertelsmann status index suggests that some countries – including Canada, New Zealand, Norway and the Netherlands, are able to achieve better social results with similar or lower levels of public spending. Australia combines comparable results with much lower spend. Public Spending (as % of GDP) UNCLASSIFIED
UK departments enjoy very high levels of budget freedom  This chart shows that UK departments have the greatest levels of control over their budgets in the entire OECD. The index captures procedural  flexibility  to reallocate budget resources at the ministerial level Source: OECD Government at a Glance UNCLASSIFIED
UK departments are among the strongest in the OECD – our silos run deep With above average levels of budget and HRM delegation, UK departments are among the strongest in the developed world. Only Canada and New Zealand have similar levels of devolution, and they both have stronger civil service governance mechanisms. Source: OECD Government at a Glance UNCLASSIFIED
About the Institute for Government Research Development Advice UNCLASSIFIED
A different cut on collaboration ...with our citizens! UNCLASSIFIED
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],UNCLASSIFIED
Big Society is one of several new emphases in government thinking  Behavioural insights Transparency & payment by results Big Society & decentralisation Well-being UNCLASSIFIED
By 2008, Britons had become unusually afraid of other people UNCLASSIFIED 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Other Defence / foreign affairs Energy related issues Taxation Housing Protecting the environment The education system Pensions Terrorism Healthcare system Economic situation Rising prices Immigration crime Unemployment % concerned UK EU 15
More recently, crime concerns overtaken by economic concerns Jan-May 2011 Economy  58% Unemployment 26% Race/immigration 24% NHS 21% Crime 18% UNCLASSIFIED Halpern 2009, data from MORI Most important issues facing Britain in election years  (% public see as key issue) Unemployment   82% in 1983 Inflation  82% in 1974 Trade Unions:  65% in 1979 NHS   49% in 1997 Defence & Terrorism   34% in 2005 Crime :  34% in 2009 Education   42% in 1997 Immigration & race   31% in 2005 Pensions  14% in 1997 Issues below 10% not shown Housing :  25% in 1974 Economy :  59% in 2009 %
People greatly overestimate the probability of crime ,[object Object],UNCLASSIFIED
A question.... ,[object Object],UNCLASSIFIED
Fear more rooted in social trust than crime  per se Correlation = .7. Note the  Danes have a burglary rate second only to ours UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Social relationships have hard impacts UNCLASSIFIED LGID: Wellbeing - why bother? Meta analysis: comparative odds of decreased mortality Source: Holt-Lundstad et al 2010
We generally fail to measure or value this ‘hidden wealth’  UNCLASSIFIED Sleep Medical, education Sport, shopping, travel Home leisure Shelter, nutrition Professional services Other services Manual   We spend on 23% of our waking time in paid work  down  1hr 15min from 1960’s – with clear evidence of convergence across class
Across the world, most dramatic transformations of public services harness hidden wealth Sweden  Patient Hotels UNCLASSIFIED Singapore  Yellow Ribbon program London  10% vs 79% recidivism
The behavioural angle ...nudging in policy UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 12.2% 10.9% 9.2% 7.6% 7.4% 3.9% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% WHO, 2000 UNCLASSIFIED Public health: behavioural factors explain the majority of years of healthy life lost
You can change behaviour without changing minds...the science of shortcuts ‘ It turns out that the environmental effects on behavior are a lot stronger than most people expect’ Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate UNCLASSIFIED
MINDSPACE UNCLASSIFIED
MINDSPACE is being widely applied... UNCLASSIFIED M essenger We are heavily influenced by who communicates information I ncentives Our responses to incentives are shaped by predictable mental shortcuts such as strongly avoiding losses N orms We are strongly influenced by what others do D efaults We ‘go with the flow’ of pre-set options S alience Our attention is drawn to what is novel and seems relevant to us P riming Our acts are often influenced by sub-conscious cues A ffect Our emotional associations can powerfully shape our actions C ommitment We seek to be consistent with our public promises, and reciprocate acts E go We act in ways that make us feel better about ourselves
UNCLASSIFIED Defaults are the most famous of a growing range of applications
The well-being angle Are we making ‘progress’? UNCLASSIFIED
...economic growth is a means to an end. If your goal in politics is to help make a better life for people – which mine is – and if you know, both in your gut and from a huge body of evidence that prosperity alone can’t deliver a better life, then you’ve got to take practical steps to make sure government is properly focused on our quality of life as well as economic growth, and that is what we are trying to do. 25 th  November 2010 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
Rich nations are happier... UNCLASSIFIED
But in the US and UK, growth doesn’t seem to be making us happier – unlike in Denmark UNCLASSIFIED
The Easterlin paradox UNCLASSIFIED
Understanding Easterlin draws attention to ‘social interaction ’ UNCLASSIFIED
The Danish formula UNCLASSIFIED
The ONS are measuring ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
The data will raise many questions....and may directly affect citizen choices From Whitely  et al,  2004 http://www.esrc.ac.uk/esrccontent/news/september04-2.asp UNCLASSIFIED ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
UNCLASSIFIED
Implications for policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],UNCLASSIFIED
Conclusions UNCLASSIFIED
Coalition agreement ,[object Object],UNCLASSIFIED
...a new cut on collaboration? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],UNCLASSIFIED
[object Object],[object Object],UNCLASSIFIED

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David Halpern - Nudge

  • 1. The Hidden Wealth of Nations: applying to policy David Halpern No10 / Cabinet Office Copenhagen 13 th October 2011 UNCLASSIFIED
  • 2. The UK tends to achieve mid-rankings among OECD nations for governance SGI Management Index UNCLASSIFIED
  • 3. Denmark is consistently among the top UNCLASSIFIED
  • 4. UK spends less... The Bertelsmann status index suggests that some countries – including Canada, New Zealand, Norway and the Netherlands, are able to achieve better social results with similar or lower levels of public spending. Australia combines comparable results with much lower spend. Public Spending (as % of GDP) UNCLASSIFIED
  • 5. UK departments enjoy very high levels of budget freedom This chart shows that UK departments have the greatest levels of control over their budgets in the entire OECD. The index captures procedural flexibility to reallocate budget resources at the ministerial level Source: OECD Government at a Glance UNCLASSIFIED
  • 6. UK departments are among the strongest in the OECD – our silos run deep With above average levels of budget and HRM delegation, UK departments are among the strongest in the developed world. Only Canada and New Zealand have similar levels of devolution, and they both have stronger civil service governance mechanisms. Source: OECD Government at a Glance UNCLASSIFIED
  • 7. About the Institute for Government Research Development Advice UNCLASSIFIED
  • 8. A different cut on collaboration ...with our citizens! UNCLASSIFIED
  • 9.
  • 10. Big Society is one of several new emphases in government thinking Behavioural insights Transparency & payment by results Big Society & decentralisation Well-being UNCLASSIFIED
  • 11. By 2008, Britons had become unusually afraid of other people UNCLASSIFIED 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Other Defence / foreign affairs Energy related issues Taxation Housing Protecting the environment The education system Pensions Terrorism Healthcare system Economic situation Rising prices Immigration crime Unemployment % concerned UK EU 15
  • 12. More recently, crime concerns overtaken by economic concerns Jan-May 2011 Economy 58% Unemployment 26% Race/immigration 24% NHS 21% Crime 18% UNCLASSIFIED Halpern 2009, data from MORI Most important issues facing Britain in election years (% public see as key issue) Unemployment 82% in 1983 Inflation 82% in 1974 Trade Unions: 65% in 1979 NHS 49% in 1997 Defence & Terrorism 34% in 2005 Crime : 34% in 2009 Education 42% in 1997 Immigration & race 31% in 2005 Pensions 14% in 1997 Issues below 10% not shown Housing : 25% in 1974 Economy : 59% in 2009 %
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Fear more rooted in social trust than crime per se Correlation = .7. Note the Danes have a burglary rate second only to ours UNCLASSIFIED
  • 17. Social relationships have hard impacts UNCLASSIFIED LGID: Wellbeing - why bother? Meta analysis: comparative odds of decreased mortality Source: Holt-Lundstad et al 2010
  • 18. We generally fail to measure or value this ‘hidden wealth’ UNCLASSIFIED Sleep Medical, education Sport, shopping, travel Home leisure Shelter, nutrition Professional services Other services Manual We spend on 23% of our waking time in paid work down 1hr 15min from 1960’s – with clear evidence of convergence across class
  • 19. Across the world, most dramatic transformations of public services harness hidden wealth Sweden Patient Hotels UNCLASSIFIED Singapore Yellow Ribbon program London 10% vs 79% recidivism
  • 20. The behavioural angle ...nudging in policy UNCLASSIFIED
  • 22. UNCLASSIFIED 12.2% 10.9% 9.2% 7.6% 7.4% 3.9% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% WHO, 2000 UNCLASSIFIED Public health: behavioural factors explain the majority of years of healthy life lost
  • 23. You can change behaviour without changing minds...the science of shortcuts ‘ It turns out that the environmental effects on behavior are a lot stronger than most people expect’ Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate UNCLASSIFIED
  • 25. MINDSPACE is being widely applied... UNCLASSIFIED M essenger We are heavily influenced by who communicates information I ncentives Our responses to incentives are shaped by predictable mental shortcuts such as strongly avoiding losses N orms We are strongly influenced by what others do D efaults We ‘go with the flow’ of pre-set options S alience Our attention is drawn to what is novel and seems relevant to us P riming Our acts are often influenced by sub-conscious cues A ffect Our emotional associations can powerfully shape our actions C ommitment We seek to be consistent with our public promises, and reciprocate acts E go We act in ways that make us feel better about ourselves
  • 26. UNCLASSIFIED Defaults are the most famous of a growing range of applications
  • 27. The well-being angle Are we making ‘progress’? UNCLASSIFIED
  • 28. ...economic growth is a means to an end. If your goal in politics is to help make a better life for people – which mine is – and if you know, both in your gut and from a huge body of evidence that prosperity alone can’t deliver a better life, then you’ve got to take practical steps to make sure government is properly focused on our quality of life as well as economic growth, and that is what we are trying to do. 25 th November 2010 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
  • 29. Rich nations are happier... UNCLASSIFIED
  • 30. But in the US and UK, growth doesn’t seem to be making us happier – unlike in Denmark UNCLASSIFIED
  • 31. The Easterlin paradox UNCLASSIFIED
  • 32. Understanding Easterlin draws attention to ‘social interaction ’ UNCLASSIFIED
  • 33. The Danish formula UNCLASSIFIED
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Hinweis der Redaktion

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  6. Only NZ and Canada try to manage a similar combination of devolved HRM and budget flexibility. NZ creates performance contracts between ministers and chief executives, while Canada has a much more powerful centre. In other words, they have tougher governance.
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  23. Team draws on a wide body of research and uses the MINDSPACE framework to support the work of those making the decisions that impact on people.
  24. Team draws on a wide body of research and uses the MINDSPACE framework to support the work of those making the decisions that impact on people.
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