Presentation given in the European Transport Conference 2016 (Barcelona) about RAIN project (www.rain-project.eu)

1. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for
research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 608166. The contents
of this presentation are the author's views. The European Union is not liable for any use that may be
made of the information contained therein.
RAIN - Risk Analysis of
Infrastructure Networks in
Response to Extreme Weather
European Transport
Conference 2016
Barcelona, Spain
7th October 2016
Dr. Milenko Halat
R&D, Aplicaciones en
Informática Avanzada SL
Barcelona, Spain
halatm@aia.es
www.rain-project.eu

2. Outline
• Motivation
• RAIN
– What
– Who
– What for
– How
• Outcomes
• Topics for discussion
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

3. Motivation
more events, more severe
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

5. In recent years, the complex interdependencies of the European/International
infrastructure networks have been highlighted through multiple failures during extreme
weather events. These failures have been the driver for this project.
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

7. Sandy (2012)
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
“…that the destruction caused by the storm was the
worst disaster in the 108-year history of the New
York City subway system”.

8. Sandy (2012)
– Total 193 deaths
– damage >$20 billion (USD) losses (including
business interruption) > $50 billion
– Jamaica: 70% of residents without electricity,
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
• Haiti: food shortages, 200,000 homeless,
• USA
– Flooding streets, tunnels and subway lines and
cutting power in and around the city.
– New York Stock Exchange remaining closed for
trading for two days.
– 7 subway tunnels under the East River were
flooded,
– Gas shortages throughout the region.

9. • Deaths ~150 people and an estimated €150
Billion worth of damage,
• In Germany and the Czech Republic, the worst
affected areas
– electricity failures, disconnected telecom
links, damage to approximately 250 roads
and 256 bridge structures,
– disruption to the Gas service due to
damaged pipelines and contamination of
clean water with flood water.
– restoration of important services to full
capacity took approximately 1 month for
electricity, 2 months for Gas and 3 months
for telephone communications.
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Europe: Flash floods 2012

10. • Deaths of 25 people and €12bn worth
of damage
• Germany, Hungary and the Czech
Republic, the worst affected areas
• 23,000 people leave homes in German
city of Magdeburg. Elbe river waters
rose to 7.4m (normal 2m)!!
Central Europe: Flash floods 2013

11. • Deaths of 20 people and >€1bn
(Bavaria alone) worth of damage
• Mostly Germany and France, but
also Austria, Belgium, Romania, Moldo
va, Netherlands and the United
Kingdom
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Europe: Flash floods 2016

12. • This kind of extreme events
– Cost billions € in direct and indirect damage
– Dozens of deaths
– Impact on residential buildings and infrastructures
– Several countries involved
– Long recovery times
– Infrastructures interdependencies
– Cascading effects [Electricity -> communications | Road | Water supply |…]
• Relevant problems:
– How much should be invested on protection for SEVERE and RARE events
(preparedness vs mitigation)
– “Where” the investment will have highest impact
– How to measure the social cost more effectively
– How to involve / coordinate different governments and stakeholders
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Summarizing…

13. What is RAIN?
networks: the distributed and
vulnerable part of infrastructures
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

14. RAIN
• Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in Response to Extreme Weather
• FP7 Theme 10 - Security Activity - 10.2 Security of Infrastructures and
Utilities SEC-2013.2.1-2 - Impact of Extreme Weather on Critical
Infrastructure'.
'Activities will concentrate on targets of an incident or disaster of
transnational importance…, significant sites of political or symbolic value
and utilities being those for energy (including oil, electricity, gas), water,
transport (including air, sea, land), communication (including
broadcasting), financial, administrative, public health, etc.
A series of capabilities are required to cope with this mission area, many of
which primarily relate to the phases "protect" but also "prepare”.
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

15. Who?
industry + academia
heterogeneous skills
different countries
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

19. What for?
decision support
resilience
mitigation strategies
policies recommendation
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

20. • Improve the robustness of Infrastructure Networks so that they will not
experience disproportionate damage or disruption in the case of extreme
events
• Minimize impact
– novel early warning systems,
– decision support tools and
– engineering solutions
• Recovery Develop systems that will accelerate re-establishing
infrastructure links post an extreme event.
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Objectives

21. HOW
identification
assessment
measures
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

22. 1. Meteorological:
– Hazard identification (Types & Thresholds)
– Geographical dependence
– Frequency/return time, mid/ long-term forecasting in Future scenarios
2. Critical Infrastructures
– Critical component identification
– Vulnerability matrix Component vs Threat
– Protection (Prevention and mitigation) measures for each the matrix
3. Framework: Risk assessment and decision support
4. Validation: use cases
5. Mitigation measures. Benchmarking, effectiveness vs cost
6. Policy recommendations
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Steps

23. 1. Meteorological:
– Hazard identification (Types & Thresholds)
– Geographical dependence
– Frequency, mid/long-term forecasting in Future scenarios
2. Critical Infrastructures
– Critical component identification
– Vulnerability matrix Component v/s Threat
– Protection (Prevention and mitigation) measures for each the matrix
3. Framework: Risk assessment and decision support
4. Validation: use cases
5. Mitigation measures. Benchmark, effectiveness vs cost
6. Policy recommendations.
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Steps

24. Hazard Identification
1. To identify the extreme weather events to be analyzed in detail in RAIN, including
defining appropriate intensity thresholds, taking into account regional differences
in vulnerability and climate.
2. To assess the present state-of-the-art forecast systems for extreme weather and
their characteristics, and to address and estimate their predictive skill.
3. To assess the frequency of weather hazards throughout Europe for both the
present and future climate; by applying state-of-the-art methods to regional
(CORDEX) and global (CMIP5) climate model data until the year 2100.
ESWD data
Tornadoes
Severe wind gusts
Large hail
Extreme rainfall
Venice (I), 11 June 2012
near Wiener Neustadt 3 Juni 2012
Images: Skywarn.at / ORF
ESWD data
Tornadoes
Severe wind gusts
Large hail
Extreme rainfall
Venice (I), 11 June 2012
Slovenia, 4 November 2012
near Wiener Neustadt 3 Juni 2012
Images: Skywarn.at / ORF
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

25. Hazard Identification
images (cc-by-sa license): thunderstorm gusts: John Kerstholt
snow storms: Sebastian Ballard, lightning: Timo Newton-Syms
snow storms freezing rain
tornadoes
wind storms
river floods
lightning, hail,
thunderstorm winds
wildfires
heavy rain
coastal floods
The European Severe Weather Database
www.eswd.eu
Tornadoes
Severe wind gusts
Large hail
Extreme rainfall
Avalanches
Heavy snowfall
Damaging Lightning
Freezing rain…
• more than 90 000 individual reports of severe weather
ther Database
Tornadoes
Severe wind gusts
Large hail
Extreme rainfall
Avalanches
Heavy snowfall
Damaging Lightning
Freezing rain…
of severe weather
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

26. River & Coastal Flooding: Data
River discharges
Stations with at
least three full
decades of
continuous records
(1951-2000)
Country Stations
France 163
Sweden 142
United Kingdom 136
Germany 125
Norway 101
Switzerland 75
Other 277
Total 1019
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

27. River & Coastal Flooding: Simulation
Bayesian Network
Methodology
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28. River & Coastal Flooding: Results 1/3
% Variation in river
discharges (100-years)
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

29. River & Coastal Flooding: Results 2/3
Flood Extent
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

30. River & Coastal Flooding: Results 3/3
Storm Surges
Occurence of storm surges
(100-year return period) in Europe
in present climate (TU Delft)
Sea level rise up to 2100
IPCC projections by emission scenario.
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

31. 1. Meteorological:
– Hazard identification (Types & Thresholds)
– Geographical dependence
– Frequency, mid, long-term forecasting in Future scenarios
2. Critical Infrastructures
– Critical component identification
– Vulnerability matrix Component v/s Threat
– Protection (Prevention and mitigation) measures for each the matrix
3. Framework: Risk assessment and decision support
4. Validation: use cases
5. Mitigation measures. Benchmark, effectiveness vs cost
6. Policy recommendations.
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Steps

32. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Vulnerability taxonomy
Bridge / flood

33. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Vulnerability taxonomy
Windstorm /
electric

34. Vulnerability taxonomy
Transmission tower
characterization

35. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Vulnerability Matrix Example
ELECTRICITY
Lightning
Windstorms
Ice/snow
storms
Flashfloods
Extremecold
Extremeheat
Wildfires
Sandstorms
Seasonal
drought
Generators
(housed)
Generators
(wind / PV)
Lines
Xformers
Sw / Breakers
Relays
SCADA &
telecom
Voltage
control devs

36. Protection [prevention]

37. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Scheme for Bayesian Analysis

38. Impact assessment (E&TC)
Electrical
Telco
Community
service
Business
Individual
access to
emergency
call centers
shutdown
and restart
costs
life support
systems
opportunity
costs of idle
resources
elderly
people &
people with
health
concerns
loss of
leisure time
work
looting and
vandalism
loss of goods
attention
vulnerable
people
financial
transactions
coordination
among
affected
parties
public
transportation
other utility
providers

39. 1. Meteorological:
– Hazard identification (Types & Thresholds)
– Geographical dependence
– Frequency, mid, long-term forecasting in Future scenarios
2. Critical Infrastructures
– Critical component identification
– Vulnerability matrix Component v/s Threat
– Protection (Prevention and mitigation) measures for each the matrix
3. Framework: Risk assessment and decision support
4. Validation: use cases
5. Mitigation measures. Benchmark, effectiveness vs cost
6. Policy recommendations.
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Steps

40. Enumerate all possible
states that might arise
Quantify how likely
each state is for a given
action (state
probability
distribution).
Quantify consequences
that each state entails for
a given action in an
appropriate metric.
Enumerate all possible
actions
Construct Outcome
Probability Distributions
(outcome metric inherited
from consequence
quantification)
Use laws of
probability theory:
Consequence
analysis:
Map consequences to state
probability distributions:
Enumeration: Enumeration:
Inference
Phase
Risk Based Decision Framework

41. Risk Based Decision Framework
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

42. distribution).
appropriate metric.
Construct Outcome
Probability Distributions
(outcome metric inherited
from consequence
quantification)
Choose that action that
maximizes the position of
the Utility Probability
Distributions.
Map consequences to state
probability distributions:
Apply criterion of
choice:
Construct Utility
Probability Distributions
Transform outcome metric
to a metric that takes into
account any ‘wealth’
constraints in play:
Inference
Phase
Decision
Phase
Risk Based Decision Framework

43. Validation
Malborghetto case (Italy)
Loviisa Nuclear plant (Finland)
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

44. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Italian Case Study
Alpine Region, August 2003
• Torrential rainfall, Flash flooding,
Debris flow
• 600 residents were evacuated, 2
deaths
• Estimated damage of €190 million
• Critical infrastructure failure(s)
– Land transport infrastructure failure(s)
• Bridges
• Tunnel
• Roads
• Railway station

47. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
A23
E55
TrasEuropean
Network -
Transport

48. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
DEBRIS FLOWS TRIGGERED BY THE 29 AUGUST 2003
CLOUDBURST IN VAL CANALE, EASTERN ITALIAN ALPS.

49. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Rivers and landslides areas

50. Susceptibility map

51. SUMMARY
SECTORIAL CRITERIA CROSS-CUTTING CRITERIA (CCC)
CRITICAL
Ref Description Road/line K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K Causalit. Economic ef. Public ef. CCC
B1 Road bridge A23 2.5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 31.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B2 Road bridge SS13 1.5 5 5 5 1 2 3 2 24.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B3 Road bridge SS13 1.5 5 5 5 1 2 2 1 22.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B4 Railway bridge main 5 5 5 1 3 3 1 0 23 NO NO NO NO NO
B5 Road bridge SS13 1.5 5 5 5 1 2 1 0 20.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B6 Road bridge A23 2.5 5 5 5 5 4 1 0 27.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B7 Road bridge A23 2.5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 29.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B8 Road bridge SS13 1.5 5 5 5 1 2 3 2 24.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B9 Road bridge A23 2.5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 31.5 NO YES NO YES YES
B9.2 Road bridge SS13 1.5 5 5 5 3 2 3 2 26.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B10 Road bridge A23 2.5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 31.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B11 Railway bridge main 5 5 5 5 3 3 1 0 27 NO NO NO NO NO
B12 Road bridge A23 2.5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 29.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B13 Road bridge A23 2.5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 29.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B14 Road bridge A23 2.5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 31.5 NO NO NO NO NO
B15 Railway bridge main 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 33 NO YES NO YES YES
T1 Road tunnel A23 2.5 4 4.5 4 5 5 1 0 26 NO NO NO NO NO
T2 Road tunnel A23 2.5 4 4.5 4 5 5 1 0 26 NO NO NO NO NO
T4 Road tunnel A23 2.5 4 4.5 4 5 5 1 0 26 NO NO NO NO NO
T5 Railway tunnel main 5 5 5 4 3 4 1 0 27 NO NO NO NO NO
T6 Road tunnel SS13 1.5 4 5 4 1 3 3 2 23.5 NO NO NO NO NO
T7 Railway tunnel main 5 5 5 4 3 4 1 0 27 NO NO NO NO NO
T8 Road tunnel A23 2.5 4 4.5 4 5 5 2 1 28 NO NO NO NO NO
T9 Road tunnel SS13 1.5 3 4.5 3 1 3 1 0 17 NO NO NO NO NO
T10 Road tunnel SS13 1.5 4 5 3 1 3 3 2 22.5 NO NO NO NO NO
T11 Road tunnel A23 2.5 4 4.5 4 5 5 3 2 30 NO NO NO NO NO
S1 Train Station main 5 3 5 2 3 1 3 2 24 NO NO NO NO NO
S2 Train Station main 5 3 5 2 3 1 3 2 24 NO NO NO NO NO
Component evaluation

52. Component failure dependences
Road
Road
Rail

53. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Bayesian network for transportation

54. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
Risk profile
before &
after
intervention
Posterior failure
probabilities of the
bridges given
system failure

55. • In 2005, Europe was exposed to a potential risk of a
nuclear disaster caused by the flooding of the
Loviisa nuclear power plant in Finland. Sea levels
rose by 1.73 meter above normal levels, due to a
storm.
• Estimated damage of €20 million in costs to
theinsurance company
Validation: Loviisa [On progress]
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

56. Outcomes
weather database
articles
software tool
framework
recommendations
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

57. RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXBftjvyXQs

59. Keep in touch
website
newsletter
twitter, linkedin
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

60. RAIN Project - Mid Term Review - Brussels
9th December 2015
Website: http://rain-project.eu/

61. Newsletter: (subscribe!)

62. Twitter account (follow!): @RAIN_project

63. LinkedIn group:

64. RAIN Project
www.rain-project.eu
Dr. Milenko Halat
halatm@aia.es
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

65. Topics for discussion
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016

66. Concepts as collective intelligence or collaborative economy (~Uber, Airbnb…)
can be of great help in disasters: people is getting used to them, no big
hardware investment (mobiles), etc. Cons: would be used few times.
 New trends in the use of technology
RAIN Project – European Transport Conference 2016 – 7th October 2016
These disasters pose infrastructures in a exceptional and vulnerable situation.
Intentional attacks could take place (physical and/or cyber). How to be
prepared?
 Combined attacks
Bulk citizen movements and activity could be inferred on real time through
data analysis from sources like phone activity, triangulation traffic cameras /
sensors. What’s the price? Is it really useful?
 Big data tools
Crisis management systems should consider carefully the personal
information they expose, directly or indirectly (inference crossing data
sources) How to reach a useful tradeoff between safety and privacy?
 Privacy concerns
BRAIN STORMING