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1
Company Overview
NASDAQ Ticker SHLO
Sector Industrial Goods
Industry Automotive Components (Metal Fabrication)
Market Cap $111M
Shares Outstanding 17.34M
Headquarters Valley City, Ohio
Employees 3,400
Founded 1950
52 Week Range $3.06 to $14.02
Current Price $6.45
P/E 12.43
P/B 0.69 (ttm)
P/S 0.09 (mrq)
2
Recommendation: BUY
• Current Price: $6.45
• Target Price: $12.03
– Upside: 86%
• Growth Factors
– Stringent government emission regulations
• Need 5% improvement in MPG every year
– Transitioning demand for aluminum products
• Expected to grow 300% by 2020
– Organic growth
• $56M in new contracts in the most recent quarter
3
Executives
Ramzi Hermiz,
Chief Executive Officer since 2012
Jay Potter,
Senior Vice President and Chief
Investment Officer
Kenton Bednarz
Vice President Legal and
Government Affairs
Rick Capretta
Vice President Business Process
David Jaeger
Managing Director CastLight
Tom Luttrell
Senior Vice President Human
Resources, Information
Technology and Supply Chain
4
Industry Outlook
• Industry faced with 54.5mpg CAFE target by 2025
– 4% to 5% improvement per year
• Decreased metal prices
• CUVs most popular, not aerodynamic
• 10M self driving cars by 2020
– Heavy computers
• Aluminum in cars to increase 300% by 2020
– Aluminum saves 44 million tons of C02 emissions
• 2016 US new car sales expected to grow by 500,000 units
Crossover Utility Vehicle
5
Key Statistics  Industry
Metric SHLO Industry Average
Market Cap $111M $2.87B
Beta 1.99 2.16
WACC 8.15% 4.01%
YTD return 20% -3.69%
3 year return -38.4% 40.87%
5 year return -46% 23.45%
Gross Margin 10.6% 23.66%
Operating Margin 1.60% 9.76%
Debt/Equity 198.6% 79.6%
6
SHLO: 1 Yr. Performance
7
Shiloh vs. Competitors
• Expansion into aluminum/magnesium products
– Poland and Tennessee plants
• Amount of aluminum in cars set to increase 300% in 5 years
• CAFE 54.5 MPG by 2025
– This is an unrealistic goal with traditional steel
8
Business Processes
Blanking Casting Stamping
9
Powertrain Interior Frame Chassis
Blanking Casting Stamping
Products
10
Production Capabilities
BlankLight, 5
CastLight, 7StampLight, 9
Sales & Technical
Center, 4
Facilities
11
Global Presence
14
5
3
2
Manufacturing Facilities
United States Europe China Mexico
12
Revenue Segment by Geography
Europe, 12.07%
Mexico, 3.77%
USA, 84.16%
Sales
13
Revenue Growth
• CAGR: 16.4%
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue Growth
Revenue
14
Clients
15
Revenue Breakdown
GM, 27%
Fiat Chrysler,
23%
Ford, 11%
Nissan, 9%
Mercedes, 9%
Honda, 4%
BMW, 3%
Volvo, 2%
Other, 12%
Clients
16
Strategies for Growth
• New contracts centered on aluminum products
– Lessening dependence on steel
• Service oriented business model
– Retain customers
– Higher profit margins
• Capitalize on auto sales expectations in 2016
– +500,000 new vehicles
17
DCF Base Case Assumptions
BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Revenue Growth Rate 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0%
Operating Margin 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7%
Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0%
NWC as % of Revenue 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate 1.25%
HISTORICAL FINANCIAL DATA 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM
Revenue Growth Rate 11.7% 13.2% 19.5% 25.5% 26.2% NA
Operating Margin 2.9% 4.1% 4.9% 3.3% 2.2% 1.6%
Effective Tax Rate 40.0% 39.9% 33.0% 17.5% 28.2% 50.2%
Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 4.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%
Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 3.6% 2.9% 3.9% 4.6% 3.6% 2.7%
NWC as % of Revenue 6.9% 7.3% 7.2% 10.7% 10.3% 19.0%
18
DCF Downside & Upside Assumptions
UPSIDE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Revenue Growth Rate 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0%
Operating Margin 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7%
Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.7%
NWC as % of Revenue 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
Terminal Growth Rate 1.5%
DOWNSIDE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Revenue Growth Rate 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%
Operating Margin 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%
Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7%
Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.7%
NWC as % of Revenue 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%
Terminal Growth Rate 1.0%
19
DCF Output
Scenario Base Upside Downside
Terminal Shares Outstanding 17 17 17
PV of Total Cash Flow 561 643 301
Value of Debt 276 276 276
Value of Cash 7 7 7
Value of Equity 292 374 31
Value of Equity per Share 16.81$ 21.54$ 1.78$
Potential Upside 216.62% 305.70% -66.44%
Weight 50% 20% 30%
Target Price 13.25$
Upside/Downside 149.52%
20
Multiples Model
Weights Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Company Specific
EV/Sales 20% 30% 10% 20% EPS 0.48$
EV/EBITDA 20% 10% 30% 20% Revenue/Share 64.16$
P/E 20% 20% 10% 30% Book Value/Share 8.13$
Price/Cash Flow 20% 10% 30% 20% EBITDA/Share 3.35$
Price/Book 20% 30% 20% 10% Cash Flow/Share 0.23$
Debt/Share 17.64$
Relative Price (Using Median) 10.89$ 15.16$ 10.25$ 7.27$
Relative Price (Using Average) 10.72$ 15.39$ 10.30$ 6.47$
Target Price 10.81$
21
Risks
• Demand of new cars
– Especially in U.S.
• Volatility of metal prices
– Causes inventory to lose value
• Potential success of steel innovations
– Transitioning to aluminum production
• Concentrated revenue stream
– 50% of revenue dependent on two customers
22
Summary
• BUY: $12.03
– 86% Upside
• Growth Factors
– Stricter government emission regulations
• Need 5% improvement in MPG every year
– Demand Transitioning to aluminum products
• Expected to grow 300% by 2020
– Organic growth
• $56M in new contracts most recent quarter
23
Index
• Company Overview
• Recommendation: BUY
• Industry Outlook
• Key Statistics
• SHLO: 1 Yr. Performance
• Competitors
• Business Process
• Global
• Revenue Growth
• Growth
• DCF output
• Multiples Model
• Risk
• Manufacturing Facilities
• SWOT
24
Falling Steel Prices
Shiloh vs. Alcoa
Quality Service
• Best Luxury SUV
– Based on:
• Innovation
• Comfort
• Design
• Safety
• Handling
• Driver’s satisfaction
• Value for the dollar
25
Operations Overview
• Revenue 2015: $1.1B
• Employees: 3,400
• Geographies: 5 countries
• Domestic Revenue: 84.16%
• Foreign Revenue: 15.84%
• Long term growth opportunities: China, Europe, and United
States
• Renovating factories
26
Q2 Performance 2016
2015 2016
Revenue $245M $251.1M
Gross Margin 18.7M 16M
Profit Margin 7.6% 6.4%
EBITDA 14M 8.7M
Operating Income 4,430M (2,167)M
Long Term Debt 298.87M 276.4M
Net Income (Loss) 2,443M (5,059)M
27
SWOT
Location of Factor Favorable Unfavorable
Internal Strengths:
 Focus industry
differentiation through
aluminum products
 Global presence
 Long term contracts
 Vast production
capabilities
Weaknesses:
 SEC investigation on
corporate insider trading
 Narrow target market
 Concentrated revenue
stream
External Opportunities:
 Increased projects to
capture growth in
aluminum demand
 Broad aluminum solutions
to meet auto market
demand
 Demanding fuel efficiency
standards
 Popular non-aerodynamic
CUVs
 Record setting U.S. auto
market sales
Threats:
 Intense Competition
 Decline in steel, aluminum,
and magnesium prices
 International business risks
 Operation hazards
 Economic/industry
downturns
28
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Statement Data ($Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016
Inventory 34 45 44 62 58 61
Cash + Short Term Investments 0 0 0 12 13 7
Current Assets 117 128 167 294 322 275
Total Assets 241 249 392 630 667 613
Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt 0 0 1 2 2 2
Current Liabilities 81 85 117 190 197 173
Total Long Term Debt 26 21 119 268 299 276
Total Liabilities 133 142 261 185 526 478
Shareholders' Equity 108 107 131 145 141 137
Assets - Liabilities - Shareholders' Equity - - - 300 - (3)
Operating Working Capital 36 43 50 94 114 97
Change in Working Capital 7 8 44 20
29
Income Statement
Income Statement Data ($Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016
Revenue 518 586 700 879 1,109 251
Cost of Goods Sold 479 535 628 799 1,022 235
Gross Income 39 51 72 80 87 16
SG&A + Other Operating Expenses 24 27 37 50 63 18
Operating Income 15 24 35 29 24 (2)
Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes 13 23 32 27 12 (7)
Provision for Tax Expense (Income) 5 9 11 5 3 (2)
Other Income (Loss) - - - - - -
Net Income 8 14 22 22 8 (5)
30
Ownership Summary
Institutional
Stock
ownership,
14%
Institutional
Mutual Fund,
4%
Mutual Fund,
20%
Insider, 16%
Other, 66%
Manufacturing Facilities
31
Manufacturing Facilities
Manufacturing Facilities

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Final Shiloh

  • 1. 1
  • 2. Company Overview NASDAQ Ticker SHLO Sector Industrial Goods Industry Automotive Components (Metal Fabrication) Market Cap $111M Shares Outstanding 17.34M Headquarters Valley City, Ohio Employees 3,400 Founded 1950 52 Week Range $3.06 to $14.02 Current Price $6.45 P/E 12.43 P/B 0.69 (ttm) P/S 0.09 (mrq) 2
  • 3. Recommendation: BUY • Current Price: $6.45 • Target Price: $12.03 – Upside: 86% • Growth Factors – Stringent government emission regulations • Need 5% improvement in MPG every year – Transitioning demand for aluminum products • Expected to grow 300% by 2020 – Organic growth • $56M in new contracts in the most recent quarter 3
  • 4. Executives Ramzi Hermiz, Chief Executive Officer since 2012 Jay Potter, Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer Kenton Bednarz Vice President Legal and Government Affairs Rick Capretta Vice President Business Process David Jaeger Managing Director CastLight Tom Luttrell Senior Vice President Human Resources, Information Technology and Supply Chain 4
  • 5. Industry Outlook • Industry faced with 54.5mpg CAFE target by 2025 – 4% to 5% improvement per year • Decreased metal prices • CUVs most popular, not aerodynamic • 10M self driving cars by 2020 – Heavy computers • Aluminum in cars to increase 300% by 2020 – Aluminum saves 44 million tons of C02 emissions • 2016 US new car sales expected to grow by 500,000 units Crossover Utility Vehicle 5
  • 6. Key Statistics  Industry Metric SHLO Industry Average Market Cap $111M $2.87B Beta 1.99 2.16 WACC 8.15% 4.01% YTD return 20% -3.69% 3 year return -38.4% 40.87% 5 year return -46% 23.45% Gross Margin 10.6% 23.66% Operating Margin 1.60% 9.76% Debt/Equity 198.6% 79.6% 6
  • 7. SHLO: 1 Yr. Performance 7
  • 8. Shiloh vs. Competitors • Expansion into aluminum/magnesium products – Poland and Tennessee plants • Amount of aluminum in cars set to increase 300% in 5 years • CAFE 54.5 MPG by 2025 – This is an unrealistic goal with traditional steel 8
  • 10. Powertrain Interior Frame Chassis Blanking Casting Stamping Products 10
  • 11. Production Capabilities BlankLight, 5 CastLight, 7StampLight, 9 Sales & Technical Center, 4 Facilities 11
  • 13. Revenue Segment by Geography Europe, 12.07% Mexico, 3.77% USA, 84.16% Sales 13
  • 14. Revenue Growth • CAGR: 16.4% 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revenue Growth Revenue 14
  • 16. Revenue Breakdown GM, 27% Fiat Chrysler, 23% Ford, 11% Nissan, 9% Mercedes, 9% Honda, 4% BMW, 3% Volvo, 2% Other, 12% Clients 16
  • 17. Strategies for Growth • New contracts centered on aluminum products – Lessening dependence on steel • Service oriented business model – Retain customers – Higher profit margins • Capitalize on auto sales expectations in 2016 – +500,000 new vehicles 17
  • 18. DCF Base Case Assumptions BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue Growth Rate 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0% Operating Margin 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% NWC as % of Revenue 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% Terminal Growth Rate 1.25% HISTORICAL FINANCIAL DATA 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM Revenue Growth Rate 11.7% 13.2% 19.5% 25.5% 26.2% NA Operating Margin 2.9% 4.1% 4.9% 3.3% 2.2% 1.6% Effective Tax Rate 40.0% 39.9% 33.0% 17.5% 28.2% 50.2% Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 4.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 3.6% 2.9% 3.9% 4.6% 3.6% 2.7% NWC as % of Revenue 6.9% 7.3% 7.2% 10.7% 10.3% 19.0% 18
  • 19. DCF Downside & Upside Assumptions UPSIDE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue Growth Rate 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0% Operating Margin 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.7% NWC as % of Revenue 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% Terminal Growth Rate 1.5% DOWNSIDE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue Growth Rate 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% Operating Margin 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.7% NWC as % of Revenue 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% Terminal Growth Rate 1.0% 19
  • 20. DCF Output Scenario Base Upside Downside Terminal Shares Outstanding 17 17 17 PV of Total Cash Flow 561 643 301 Value of Debt 276 276 276 Value of Cash 7 7 7 Value of Equity 292 374 31 Value of Equity per Share 16.81$ 21.54$ 1.78$ Potential Upside 216.62% 305.70% -66.44% Weight 50% 20% 30% Target Price 13.25$ Upside/Downside 149.52% 20
  • 21. Multiples Model Weights Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Company Specific EV/Sales 20% 30% 10% 20% EPS 0.48$ EV/EBITDA 20% 10% 30% 20% Revenue/Share 64.16$ P/E 20% 20% 10% 30% Book Value/Share 8.13$ Price/Cash Flow 20% 10% 30% 20% EBITDA/Share 3.35$ Price/Book 20% 30% 20% 10% Cash Flow/Share 0.23$ Debt/Share 17.64$ Relative Price (Using Median) 10.89$ 15.16$ 10.25$ 7.27$ Relative Price (Using Average) 10.72$ 15.39$ 10.30$ 6.47$ Target Price 10.81$ 21
  • 22. Risks • Demand of new cars – Especially in U.S. • Volatility of metal prices – Causes inventory to lose value • Potential success of steel innovations – Transitioning to aluminum production • Concentrated revenue stream – 50% of revenue dependent on two customers 22
  • 23. Summary • BUY: $12.03 – 86% Upside • Growth Factors – Stricter government emission regulations • Need 5% improvement in MPG every year – Demand Transitioning to aluminum products • Expected to grow 300% by 2020 – Organic growth • $56M in new contracts most recent quarter 23
  • 24. Index • Company Overview • Recommendation: BUY • Industry Outlook • Key Statistics • SHLO: 1 Yr. Performance • Competitors • Business Process • Global • Revenue Growth • Growth • DCF output • Multiples Model • Risk • Manufacturing Facilities • SWOT 24
  • 27. Quality Service • Best Luxury SUV – Based on: • Innovation • Comfort • Design • Safety • Handling • Driver’s satisfaction • Value for the dollar 25
  • 28. Operations Overview • Revenue 2015: $1.1B • Employees: 3,400 • Geographies: 5 countries • Domestic Revenue: 84.16% • Foreign Revenue: 15.84% • Long term growth opportunities: China, Europe, and United States • Renovating factories 26
  • 29. Q2 Performance 2016 2015 2016 Revenue $245M $251.1M Gross Margin 18.7M 16M Profit Margin 7.6% 6.4% EBITDA 14M 8.7M Operating Income 4,430M (2,167)M Long Term Debt 298.87M 276.4M Net Income (Loss) 2,443M (5,059)M 27
  • 30. SWOT Location of Factor Favorable Unfavorable Internal Strengths:  Focus industry differentiation through aluminum products  Global presence  Long term contracts  Vast production capabilities Weaknesses:  SEC investigation on corporate insider trading  Narrow target market  Concentrated revenue stream External Opportunities:  Increased projects to capture growth in aluminum demand  Broad aluminum solutions to meet auto market demand  Demanding fuel efficiency standards  Popular non-aerodynamic CUVs  Record setting U.S. auto market sales Threats:  Intense Competition  Decline in steel, aluminum, and magnesium prices  International business risks  Operation hazards  Economic/industry downturns 28
  • 31. Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Statement Data ($Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016 Inventory 34 45 44 62 58 61 Cash + Short Term Investments 0 0 0 12 13 7 Current Assets 117 128 167 294 322 275 Total Assets 241 249 392 630 667 613 Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt 0 0 1 2 2 2 Current Liabilities 81 85 117 190 197 173 Total Long Term Debt 26 21 119 268 299 276 Total Liabilities 133 142 261 185 526 478 Shareholders' Equity 108 107 131 145 141 137 Assets - Liabilities - Shareholders' Equity - - - 300 - (3) Operating Working Capital 36 43 50 94 114 97 Change in Working Capital 7 8 44 20 29
  • 32. Income Statement Income Statement Data ($Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016 Revenue 518 586 700 879 1,109 251 Cost of Goods Sold 479 535 628 799 1,022 235 Gross Income 39 51 72 80 87 16 SG&A + Other Operating Expenses 24 27 37 50 63 18 Operating Income 15 24 35 29 24 (2) Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes 13 23 32 27 12 (7) Provision for Tax Expense (Income) 5 9 11 5 3 (2) Other Income (Loss) - - - - - - Net Income 8 14 22 22 8 (5) 30

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. 60% of revenue come from castlight
  2. Shiloh is well-positioned to benefit from key megatrends currently transforming the automotive industry. One, lightweighting, focused on fuel efficiency and emissions; two, safety; and three, autonomous drive The European Union has been the global leader in its pursuit of lower CO2 emissions, with the US not too far behind. After the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris this past summer, China is targeting a significant change in its energy policy. Officials in Beijing have indicated that they will cut CO2 emissions from coal power by 180 million tons by 2020, and will be targeting improvements in the transportation industry The push toward autonomous driving is directly focused on improving occupant safety. As we know, even technology leaders such as Google and Apple have targeted the autonomous vehicle. We expect that the added computers, sensors and control features on these vehicles will require further lightweighting to offset the weight of additional technology-rich content. We directly provide technology solutions for lightweighting and safety products, and we enhance many of the technologies that support the transition to autonomous driving