2. Company Overview
NASDAQ Ticker SHLO
Sector Industrial Goods
Industry Automotive Components (Metal Fabrication)
Market Cap $111M
Shares Outstanding 17.34M
Headquarters Valley City, Ohio
Employees 3,400
Founded 1950
52 Week Range $3.06 to $14.02
Current Price $6.45
P/E 12.43
P/B 0.69 (ttm)
P/S 0.09 (mrq)
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3. Recommendation: BUY
• Current Price: $6.45
• Target Price: $12.03
– Upside: 86%
• Growth Factors
– Stringent government emission regulations
• Need 5% improvement in MPG every year
– Transitioning demand for aluminum products
• Expected to grow 300% by 2020
– Organic growth
• $56M in new contracts in the most recent quarter
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4. Executives
Ramzi Hermiz,
Chief Executive Officer since 2012
Jay Potter,
Senior Vice President and Chief
Investment Officer
Kenton Bednarz
Vice President Legal and
Government Affairs
Rick Capretta
Vice President Business Process
David Jaeger
Managing Director CastLight
Tom Luttrell
Senior Vice President Human
Resources, Information
Technology and Supply Chain
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5. Industry Outlook
• Industry faced with 54.5mpg CAFE target by 2025
– 4% to 5% improvement per year
• Decreased metal prices
• CUVs most popular, not aerodynamic
• 10M self driving cars by 2020
– Heavy computers
• Aluminum in cars to increase 300% by 2020
– Aluminum saves 44 million tons of C02 emissions
• 2016 US new car sales expected to grow by 500,000 units
Crossover Utility Vehicle
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6. Key Statistics Industry
Metric SHLO Industry Average
Market Cap $111M $2.87B
Beta 1.99 2.16
WACC 8.15% 4.01%
YTD return 20% -3.69%
3 year return -38.4% 40.87%
5 year return -46% 23.45%
Gross Margin 10.6% 23.66%
Operating Margin 1.60% 9.76%
Debt/Equity 198.6% 79.6%
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8. Shiloh vs. Competitors
• Expansion into aluminum/magnesium products
– Poland and Tennessee plants
• Amount of aluminum in cars set to increase 300% in 5 years
• CAFE 54.5 MPG by 2025
– This is an unrealistic goal with traditional steel
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17. Strategies for Growth
• New contracts centered on aluminum products
– Lessening dependence on steel
• Service oriented business model
– Retain customers
– Higher profit margins
• Capitalize on auto sales expectations in 2016
– +500,000 new vehicles
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18. DCF Base Case Assumptions
BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Revenue Growth Rate 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0%
Operating Margin 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7%
Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0%
NWC as % of Revenue 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate 1.25%
HISTORICAL FINANCIAL DATA 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM
Revenue Growth Rate 11.7% 13.2% 19.5% 25.5% 26.2% NA
Operating Margin 2.9% 4.1% 4.9% 3.3% 2.2% 1.6%
Effective Tax Rate 40.0% 39.9% 33.0% 17.5% 28.2% 50.2%
Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 4.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%
Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 3.6% 2.9% 3.9% 4.6% 3.6% 2.7%
NWC as % of Revenue 6.9% 7.3% 7.2% 10.7% 10.3% 19.0%
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19. DCF Downside & Upside Assumptions
UPSIDE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Revenue Growth Rate 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0%
Operating Margin 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7%
Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.7%
NWC as % of Revenue 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
Terminal Growth Rate 1.5%
DOWNSIDE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Revenue Growth Rate 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%
Operating Margin 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%
Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7%
Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.7%
NWC as % of Revenue 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%
Terminal Growth Rate 1.0%
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20. DCF Output
Scenario Base Upside Downside
Terminal Shares Outstanding 17 17 17
PV of Total Cash Flow 561 643 301
Value of Debt 276 276 276
Value of Cash 7 7 7
Value of Equity 292 374 31
Value of Equity per Share 16.81$ 21.54$ 1.78$
Potential Upside 216.62% 305.70% -66.44%
Weight 50% 20% 30%
Target Price 13.25$
Upside/Downside 149.52%
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22. Risks
• Demand of new cars
– Especially in U.S.
• Volatility of metal prices
– Causes inventory to lose value
• Potential success of steel innovations
– Transitioning to aluminum production
• Concentrated revenue stream
– 50% of revenue dependent on two customers
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23. Summary
• BUY: $12.03
– 86% Upside
• Growth Factors
– Stricter government emission regulations
• Need 5% improvement in MPG every year
– Demand Transitioning to aluminum products
• Expected to grow 300% by 2020
– Organic growth
• $56M in new contracts most recent quarter
23
24. Index
• Company Overview
• Recommendation: BUY
• Industry Outlook
• Key Statistics
• SHLO: 1 Yr. Performance
• Competitors
• Business Process
• Global
• Revenue Growth
• Growth
• DCF output
• Multiples Model
• Risk
• Manufacturing Facilities
• SWOT
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27. Quality Service
• Best Luxury SUV
– Based on:
• Innovation
• Comfort
• Design
• Safety
• Handling
• Driver’s satisfaction
• Value for the dollar
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28. Operations Overview
• Revenue 2015: $1.1B
• Employees: 3,400
• Geographies: 5 countries
• Domestic Revenue: 84.16%
• Foreign Revenue: 15.84%
• Long term growth opportunities: China, Europe, and United
States
• Renovating factories
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29. Q2 Performance 2016
2015 2016
Revenue $245M $251.1M
Gross Margin 18.7M 16M
Profit Margin 7.6% 6.4%
EBITDA 14M 8.7M
Operating Income 4,430M (2,167)M
Long Term Debt 298.87M 276.4M
Net Income (Loss) 2,443M (5,059)M
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30. SWOT
Location of Factor Favorable Unfavorable
Internal Strengths:
Focus industry
differentiation through
aluminum products
Global presence
Long term contracts
Vast production
capabilities
Weaknesses:
SEC investigation on
corporate insider trading
Narrow target market
Concentrated revenue
stream
External Opportunities:
Increased projects to
capture growth in
aluminum demand
Broad aluminum solutions
to meet auto market
demand
Demanding fuel efficiency
standards
Popular non-aerodynamic
CUVs
Record setting U.S. auto
market sales
Threats:
Intense Competition
Decline in steel, aluminum,
and magnesium prices
International business risks
Operation hazards
Economic/industry
downturns
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31. Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Statement Data ($Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016
Inventory 34 45 44 62 58 61
Cash + Short Term Investments 0 0 0 12 13 7
Current Assets 117 128 167 294 322 275
Total Assets 241 249 392 630 667 613
Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt 0 0 1 2 2 2
Current Liabilities 81 85 117 190 197 173
Total Long Term Debt 26 21 119 268 299 276
Total Liabilities 133 142 261 185 526 478
Shareholders' Equity 108 107 131 145 141 137
Assets - Liabilities - Shareholders' Equity - - - 300 - (3)
Operating Working Capital 36 43 50 94 114 97
Change in Working Capital 7 8 44 20
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32. Income Statement
Income Statement Data ($Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016
Revenue 518 586 700 879 1,109 251
Cost of Goods Sold 479 535 628 799 1,022 235
Gross Income 39 51 72 80 87 16
SG&A + Other Operating Expenses 24 27 37 50 63 18
Operating Income 15 24 35 29 24 (2)
Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes 13 23 32 27 12 (7)
Provision for Tax Expense (Income) 5 9 11 5 3 (2)
Other Income (Loss) - - - - - -
Net Income 8 14 22 22 8 (5)
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Shiloh is well-positioned to benefit from key megatrends currently transforming the automotive
industry. One, lightweighting, focused on fuel efficiency and emissions; two, safety; and three, autonomous drive
The European Union has been the global leader in its pursuit of lower CO2 emissions, with the US not too far behind. After the United Nations
Climate Change Conference in Paris this past summer, China is targeting a significant change in its energy policy. Officials in Beijing have indicated
that they will cut CO2 emissions from coal power by 180 million tons by 2020, and will be targeting improvements in the transportation industry
The push toward autonomous driving is directly focused on improving occupant safety. As we know, even technology leaders such as Google and
Apple have targeted the autonomous vehicle. We expect that the added computers, sensors and control features on these vehicles will require
further lightweighting to offset the weight of additional technology-rich content. We directly provide technology solutions for lightweighting and
safety products, and we enhance many of the technologies that support the transition to autonomous driving