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BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
VALUE FOCUS
Exploration & Production
Fourth Quarter 2020 // Region Focus: Appalachian Basin
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The fourth quarter of 2020 experienced an increasing price environment compared to the volatile prices seen in the majority of 2020. WTI increased from
approximately $40/bbl to $49/bbl during the fourth quarter. Natural gas was volatile but started and ended the quarter at approximately $2.50/mmbtu. The
fourth quarter was a bit of a relief after experiencing (i) discord created by the OPEC / Russian rift and resulting supply surge; and (ii) the drop in demand due
to COVID-19 related issues. However, the impacts of COVID-19 continue to play a role in the industry heading into 2021 as a full recovery is yet to be seen. In
addition, the industry’s outlook will be impacted by the Biden Administration’s policies after being declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election. In this
newsletter, we will examine the macroeconomic factors that have affected the industry in the fourth quarter and peek behind the curtain on what 2021 might hold.
Contact Us
BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
Oil and Gas Industry Services
Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services to
companies in the energy industry.
Services Provided
•	 Valuation of oil & gas companies
•	 Transaction advisory for acquisitions and
divestitures
•	 Valuations for purchase accounting and
impairment testing
•	 Fairness and solvency opinions
•	 Litigation support for economic damages and
valuation and shareholder disputes
Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS
214.468.8400
ericksonb@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
Don Erickson, ASA
214.468.8400
ericksond@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
J. David Smith, ASA, CFA
713.239.1005
smithd@mercercapital.com
Houston Office
Alex M. Barry, CFA
214.468.8400
barrya@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
Jake M. Stacy
469.904.6718
stacyj@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
Justin J. F. Ramirez, AM
832.966.0307
ramirezj@mercercapital.com
Houston Office Learn More about Mercer Capital &
our Oil and Gas Services at
mer.cr/oilgas
Copyright © 2021 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional
information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested
in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com.
In This Issue
Oil and Gas Commodity Prices 		 1
Macro Update	
OPEC+				 2
U.S. Production	 3
Bankruptcy	 3
Biden Elected President	 3
Interest Rates	 4
Region Focus: Appalachian Basin	
Production and Activity Levels	 5
Financial Performance	  7
Market Valuations  Transaction History	 8
EQT Corporation Adds to Core
Marcellus Asset Base	 9
Southwestern Energy Co. Expanding
Appalachia Footprint	 9
Shell States Strategy to Divest
Appalachia Position	 10
Selected Public Company Information	11
Production	 15
Rig Count	 16
Industry Segments
Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments:
•	 Exploration  Production
•	 Oil Field Services
•	 Midstream Operations
•	 Alternative Energy
•	 Downstream
•	 Retail
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 1
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Crude prices gradually increased during the quarter, with WTI starting October at approximately $40/bbl and ending
December at nearly $49/bbl. Brent followed the same pattern as WTI and ended the year at approximately $52/bbl.
In December 2020’s Short Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) cited positive
news regarding COVID-19 vaccines as a potential driver for the increase, as well as market expectations that OPEC+
would delay or limit production increases planned for January 2021.
Natural gas prices were much more volatile starting and ending the quarter at approximately $2.50/mmbtu. Prices
rose in October and early November as seasonal demand for heating increased but moderated later in the quarter as
warmer-than-normal temperatures reduced heating demand.
We note that Capital IQ has revised the default futures contracts utilized for historical commodity pricing. As such, the
information shown may not tie to the analysis below.
Oil and Gas
Commodity
Prices
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$0
$10
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$50
$60
$70
$80
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Natural
Gas
($/mmbtu)
Crude
Oil
($/bbl)
WTI Brent Henry Hub
Source: Capital IQ
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 2
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Macro Update
OPEC+
On June 6, 2020, OPEC+ members reached an agreement to continue cutting 9.7 million b/d, or about 10% of global
output under normal circumstances, through July. The extended supply cuts helped oil prices continue their recovery
from their drastic drop in April due to the demand issues caused by COVID-19. The original agreement that OPEC+
reached on April 12 stated that production was set to increase gradually after June, but members refined that plan and
continued their supply cuts for another month. On July 15, OPEC + members agreed to loosen existing production
caps by roughly 1.6 million b/d amid further economic recovery.
The next production increase was scheduled for January 2021. Originally slated for ~2 million b/d, OPEC+ agreed to
a much smaller increase of 500,000 b/d in their December 3 meeting. Perceived cohesion among OPEC+ members
and a smaller than anticipated increase led to rising crude prices in December.
The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production was 11.1 million b/d in December 2020, down 14% year-over-
year. However, December’s production level was essentially flat relative to the prior month, and up 2% relative to
September 2020.
Going forward, the EIA expects total U.S. crude production for 2021 to average 11.1 million b/d (in line with current
levels). However, the EIA expects production to decline over the next several months, as production declines from
existing wells exceed new production from new wells. During the latter part of 2021, the EIA expects additional drilling
activity in light of higher oil prices.
U.S. Production
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 3
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Macro Update (cont.)
Bankruptcy
Biden Elected President
According to Haynes and Boone’s Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor, the pace of new bankruptcies slowed in the fourth
quarter of 2020. Only six North American EP companies filed for bankruptcy in Q4, compared to 18 in Q2 and 17 in
Q3. The largest of the Q4 bankruptcy filers was Gulfport Energy, with nearly $2.3 billion of unsecured debt. According
to Gulfport’s Restructuring Support Agreement, the company expects to shed $1.25 billion of debt and substantially
reduce interest expense.
As of year-end 2020, Joe Biden had been elected President of the United States, but would not assume the role until
inauguration in January 2021. While Biden’s platform has certain statements regarding oil  gas policies, there will
likely be considerable uncertainty until Biden assumes office.
The greatest domestic impact could come from Biden’s plans to oppose fracking on federal lands and waters. Biden
denied claims that he would ban fracking outright, instead stating that his platform would favor a ban on new fracking
on federal lands and waters. According to SP Global Platts Analytics, eliminating the issuance of drilling permits
for federal lands has the potential to shrink U.S. production by up to 1.1 million b/d of oil and 3.7 bcf/d of gas by 2025.
In response, producers have accelerated permitting or shifted development plans to state or private lands.
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 4
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Macro Update (cont.)
Biden Elected President
(cont.)
Interest Rates
It is also possible that Biden may deny the 570,000 b/d Dakota Access Pipeline a new permit, a move initiated by the
Obama administration, leaving Bakken producers without capacity to transport roughly 300,000 b/d to market. U.S.
crude exports that rely on certain pipelines will be affected by these future build-out decisions.
During the final presidential debate, Joe Biden called for the U.S. to transition away from oil to address the environ-
mental harm of climate change. The Biden administration would look to re-enter the Paris Climate Agreement, which
Trump pulled out of during his term, in order to prioritize the movement away from fossil fuel energy sources.
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in the month of March. On March 3, 2020, the Fed made an emer-
gency decision to cut interest rates by 0.5% in response to the foreseeable economic slowdown due to the spread of
the coronavirus. This cut was anticipated and largely shrugged off by the markets as interest rates continued their pre-
cipitous decline. Benchmark rates were again cut on March 15 by a full percent to near zero. The Federal Reserve’s
latest forecast suggest that rates will remain close to zero for the foreseeable future until inflation increases.
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 5
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
The economics of oil and gas production varies by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford,
Permian, Bakken, and Appalachia plays. The cost of producing oil and gas depends on the geological makeup of
the reserve, depth of reserve, and cost to transport the raw crude to market. We can observe different costs in dif-
ferent regions depending on these factors. This quarter we take a closer look at the Bakken.
Estimated Appalachian production increased approximately 2% year-over-year through December. Appalachia was
the only one of Mercer Capital’s coverage areas which saw an increase in production, with Bakken, Eagle Ford, and
Permian production declining 16%, 22%, and 4%, respectively. While natural gas prices have been depressed for
the past several years (largely rangebound between $1.50 and $3.00/mmbtu), they have not been nearly as volatile
as (or negative like) crude oil prices. In fact, slowing oil production is somewhat bullish for natural gas prices, as
that removes a significant amount of associated natural gas (i.e., natural gas produced from oil-focused wells) from
the market.
Appalachian
Basin
Production and Activity
Levels
1-Year Change in Production
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
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Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia
Source: Energy Information Administration
Source: EIA
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 6
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
The rig count in Appalachia stood at 32 as of year-end 2020, down 38% from the prior year. While significant, Appa-
lachia’s decline in rig count (both in absolute and relative terms) was the smallest of Mercer Capital’s coverage areas,
with rig counts in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian down 79%, 61%, and 57%, respectively. Over the past year,
Appalachia shed 20 rigs, relative to 230 in the Permian and 41 in each of the Bakken and Eagle Ford. However, with
rising commodity prices, rig counts in the Permian and Eagle Ford are up materially from their troughs in August.
Appalachia and Bakken producers have been more circumspect, holding rig counts largely flat. EP management
teams have been preaching capital discipline, though it remains to be seen whether they remain disciplined in a
higher commodity price environment.
Production and Activity
Levels (cont.)
1-Year Change in Rig Count
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
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Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Total
Source: Baker Hughes
Source: Baker Hughes
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 7
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
All Appalachia companies, with the exception of Gulfport (which is currently navigating the Chapter 11 bankruptcy
process), handily outperformed the broader EP market (as proxied by the SPDR SP Oil  Gas Exploration  Pro-
duction ETF, XOP). This is largely a function of the relative strength of natural gas prices compared to crude.
The best performer in the Appalachia peer group for 2020 was Antero, though after declining 70% during 2019, it had
the lowest base from which to grow. Cabot, which has historically been one Appalachia’s best performers, was the
basin’s laggard.
Financial Performance
1-Year Change in Stock Price
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
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AR COG EQT GPOR.Q RRC SWN XOP
Source: Capital IQ
Source: Capital IQ
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Transaction Activity Spurred by a Number of Variables
Transaction activity in the Appalachia over the last year has picked up relative to 2019. The increase in deals was driven in part by the relative price stability of natural gas
as compared to oil in 2020, which would naturally tend to favor MA activity in these gas heavy basins. Another observation is that companies are making critical decisions
on where they choose to operate moving forward. Companies, like Shell, are standing firm on their stance to divest their Appalachia assets, while other companies, like EQT,
are adding to their basin footprint. A table detailing transaction activity in the Appalachia over the last twelve months is shown below. Relative to activity in 2019, deal count
increased by fourteen and average deal size increased by roughly $40 million year-over-year.
Market Valuations  Transaction History
Transactions in the Applachian Basin
Announced
Date Buyer Seller
Deal Value
($MM) $ / Acre $ / Boepd
11/17/20 Rising Phoenix Royalties Undisclosed Seller Undisclosed nm nm
11/6/20 Undisclosed Buyer EOG Resources, Inc. 130 2,826 2,321
10/27/20 EQT Corp Cheveron Corp 735 2,194 1,633
9/18/20 Smart Sand Inc Eagle Materials Inc. 2 nm nm
9/11/20 Pin Oak Midstream LLC Laurel Mountain Energy LLC Undisclosed nm nm
9/4/20 Rising Phoenix Royalties CNX Resources Undisclosed nm nm
8/31/20 Rising Phoenix Royalties Undisclosed Seller Undisclosed nm nm
8/12/20 Southwestern Energy Co. Montage Resources Corp. 857 2,641 1,475
8/11/20 JP Morgan Securities Antero Resources 220 nm 3,667
7/27/20 CNX Resources CNX Midstream Partners 357 nm nm
7/8/20 Undisclosed Buyer Harvest Oil  Gas Corp 21 29 700
6/15/20 Sixth Street Partners LLC Antero Resources 402 nm nm
5/14/20 Diversified Gas  Oil EQT Corp 125 nm 14
5/4/20 National Fuel Gas Co. Royal Dutch Shell 541 1,353 2,437
4/14/20 Diversified Gas  Oil Carbon Energy Corp. 110 nm 2
1/24/20 KeyBank EdgeMarc Energy 70 2,188 1,489
12/19/19 Undisclosed Buyer Gulfport Energy Corp. 29 nm nm
10/22/19 Nextera Energy Partners LP Ares Management LP, Meade Pipeline Co LLC 286 nm nm
10/21/19 Undisclosed Buyer Range Resources Corp 150 nm nm
9/30/19 Nextera Energy Partners LP Meade Pipeline Co LLC 1,370 nm nm
Median $8 $2,191 $1,489
Average $38 $1,872 $1,526
Source: Shale Experts
*Does not include every transaction in the region for 2019-2020
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 9
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
In October 2020, EQT Corporation announced that the company planned to acquire Chevron’s upstream and midstream
assets located in the Appalachia for $735 million, subject to closing in late fourth quarter of 2020. EQT intends to finance
the acquisition with cash on hand, drawings under its revolving credit facility, and/or one or more capital markets transac-
tions. The asset is comprised of approximately 125,000 core acres and 210,000 acres in the surrounding area. Current
net production is approximately 450 MMcfe per day, 74% gas and 25% liquids, with approximately 100 work-in progress
wells. The transaction also includes a 31% ownership interest in Laurel Mountain Midstream and two water pipeline
systems, one in Pennsylvania and one in West Virginia. The midstream component accounted for approximately $15
million of LTM EBITDA as of June 30, 2020. Toby Rice, President and CEO of EQT, stated that the acquisition is a natural
bolt-on extension of the company’s position in the basin. He also mentioned that the purchase price was underpinned by
PDP value, the work-in-progress well inventory, core undeveloped acreage, and water assets, which all provide material
upside from their perspective. The purchase price was comprised of approximately $635 million in PDP value at PV-17,
$100 million for the midstream component (6.5x LTM EBITDA) and supported by the potential upside afforded by the work-
in-progress wells and 70,000 core net undeveloped Marcellus acres.
On August 12, 2020, Southwestern Energy Co. announced
that they agreed to acquire Montage Resources in an all-
stock transaction. Montage Resources shareholders
received 1.8656 shares of Southwestern for each Montage
Resources share. The deal closed on November 13,
2020 with an implied transaction value of $857 million at
announcement, including $670 million of debt. Montage’s
asset base consisted of 324,500 net acres across Southeast
Ohio, Northwest West Virginia, and Northeast Pennsylvania.
The pro forma overview is shown in the table to the right.
Market Valuations 
Transaction History
EQT Corporation Adds to
Core Marcellus Asset Base
Southwestern Energy Co.
Expanding Appalachia
Footprint
N
1
Pro Forma Metrics SWN + MR
Market Cap $1.9 Billion
Enterprise Value $5.0 Billion
Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 3.0x
2019 Proved Reserved 15.5 Tcfe
Natural Gas 79%
Oil 5%
NGL 17%
2019 Proved Reserves PV-10 $5.2 Billion
YTD June 2020 Production 2.8 Bcfe/d
Natural Gas 79%
Oil 4%
NGL 17%
Net Acres 786,000
Total Locations 5,150
Source: Southwestern Energy Investor Presentation
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 10
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
On May 4, 2020, National Fuel Gas Co. announced that it was going to acquire Shell’s upstream and midstream gath-
ering assets in Pennsylvania for $541 million ($500 million after closing adjustments). The all-cash transaction closed
on July 31, 2020 with an effective date of January 1, 2020. The deal included 400,000 total net acres across Pennsyl-
vania (200,000 are contiguous to National Fuel’s existing acreage), 710 Bcf of net P90 proved reserves (100% developed
producing), 215-230 Mmcf/d net production, and 142 miles of gathering pipelines, compression, and related facilities.
Wael Sawan, Upstream Director at Shell, stated, “Divesting our Appalachia position is consistent with our desire to
focus our shales portfolio. It is a core part of our upstream portfolio along with the deep water and conventional oil and
gas businesses.”
After adjusting for the value of the midstream assets acquired as part of the transaction, management indicated that the
effective multiple on the upstream component was approximately $1,250/ flowing mcfe. Based on the hedge portfolio
and NYMEX strip at the acquisition date, NFG’s CEO David Bauer stated that the PDP assets were acquired at “better
than PV-20.”
MA transaction activity in the Appalachia increased as company’s made decisions whether to add to their core basin
acreage or divest and focus on other basins. Companies also seemed to indicate their optimistic outlook on natural gas.
It will be interesting to follow whether companies choose to divest their gas positions or increase the asset’s weight in their
portfolios.
Market Valuations 
Transaction History
Shell States Strategy to
Divest Appalachia Position
N
1
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 11
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
as of 12/31/2020
Company Name Ticker
12/31/2020
Enterprise Value
YoY % Change in
Stock Price
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Global Integrated
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM $212,334 -50.80% 10.7% 10.1x 3,777 $56,216
Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS/A $172,436 -57.32% 16.3% 4.8x 3,541 $48,699
Chevron Corp CVX $162,625 -40.25% 13.2% 11.9x 3,084 $52,727
BP PLC BP $123,665 -53.74% 6.5% 9.2x 3,553 $34,802
Equinor ASA EQNR $61,453 -29.38% 22.9% 5.5x 2,234 $27,504
Group Median -50.80% 13.2% 9.2x 3,541 $48,699
Global EP
Marathon Oil Corp MRO $8,155 -69.88% 52.4% 4.4x 340 $23,962
Hess Corp HES $21,197 -38.74% 2.1% nm 320 $66,170
ConocoPhillips COP $44,088 -49.50% 32.6% 6.4x 1,193 $36,944
Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY $57,617 -75.71% -22.3% nm 1,178 $48,930
APA Corp APA $14,171 -62.99% -104.0% nm na na
Murphy Oil Corp MUR $5,095 -66.72% 5.5% 40.6x 162 $31,381
Group Median -64.85% 3.8% 6.4x 340 $36,944
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
Mercer Capital tracks the performance of Exploration and Production companies across different mineral reserves in order to understand how the current pricing envi-
ronment affects operators in each region. We created an index of seven groups to better understand performance trends across reserves and the industry. The current
pricing multiples of each company in the index are summarized below.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 12
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
as of 12/31/2020
Company Name Ticker
12/31/2020
Enterprise Value
YoY % Change in
Stock Price
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
North American EP
Devon Energy Corp DVN $6,589 -63.57% -13.8% nm 341 $19,318
QEP Resources Inc QEP $1,858 -79.94% 61.9% 3.2x 78 $23,735
WPX Energy Inc WPX $5,779 -64.34% 11.8% nm 208 $27,736
Group Median -64.34% 11.8% 3.2x 208 $23,735
Bakken
Continental Resources Inc/OK CLR $10,476 -52.48% 55.2% 6.4x 299 $35,017
Whiting Petroleum Corp WLL $1,325 na 33.8% 5.3x 88 $15,127
Oasis Petroleum Inc OAS $1,539 na -331.7% nm 60 $25,603
Group Median -52.48% 33.8% 5.9x 88 $25,603
Appalachia
Range Resources Corp RRC $4,814 36.49% -106.3% nm 369 $13,047
EQT Corp EQT $8,022 18.62% -29.0% nm 677 $11,847
Cabot Oil  Gas Corp COG $8,116 -0.29% 52.7% 10.5x 404 $20,083
Antero Resources Corp AR $6,874 -3.51% 22.0% 6.8x 566 $12,136
Southwestern Energy Co SWN $3,918 -2.89% -45.6% nm 489 $8,012
Group Median -0.29% -29.0% 8.6x 489 $12,136
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 13
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
as of 12/31/2020
Company Name Ticker
12/31/2020
Enterprise Value
YoY % Change in
Stock Price
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Permian Basin
Concho Resources Inc CXO $12,133 -49.62% -183.2% nm 314 $38,656
Parsley Energy Inc PE $6,947 -50.50% -166.1% nm 183 $37,917
Diamondback Energy Inc FANG $11,639 -67.56% -97.6% nm 287 $40,597
Centennial Resource Development Inc/DE CDEV $1,259 -86.96% 53.0% 3.7x 54 $23,493
Callon Petroleum Co CPE $3,420 -0.21% -153.4% nm 93 $36,717
Laredo Petroleum Inc LPI $1,320 241.46% -33.4% nm 81 $16,387
Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD $16,301 -43.19% 26.3% 8.0x 361 $45,181
Cimarex Energy Co XEC $4,483 -53.65% -104.1% nm 232 $19,294
Group Median -50.06% -100.9% 5.8x 208 $37,317
Eagle Ford
EOG Resources Inc EOG $23,836 -57.09% 44.2% 4.4x 795 $29,993
Magnolia Oil  Gas Corp MGY $1,547 -58.90% -160.7% nm 59 $26,366
SilverBow Resources Inc SBOW $500 -60.30% -121.4% nm 30 $16,595
Penn Virginia Corp PVAC $651 -67.55% -40.5% nm 24 $26,729
Group Median -59.60% -80.9% 4.4x 44 $26,547
OVERALL MEDIAN -53.06% 3.8% 6.4x 320 $27,504
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 14
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Price per Flowing Barrel
Appendix A
Selected Public
Company
Information
The following graph depicts the median of EV/production multiples, also known as price per flowing barrel, at the end
of the past six quarters. As has been the case for some time now, operators in the Permian continue to lead the other
regions in terms of valuation, although this margin is decreasing. The Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Appalachia
saw a decrease in their price per flowing barrel in the fourth quarter of 8%, 19%, 19%, and 0.5%, respectively. Low
commodity prices, relative to years past, have negatively impacted operators regardless of region, as three of the four
basins have seen a decline in price per flowing barrel in the range of 25% to 40% since Q4 2019.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 This is simply a graphic depiction of median figures of our selected public companies for each region. This should be interpreted solely in
the context of relative valuation between the various basins over time. Bloomberg aggregates this raw data, and Mercer Capital does not
represent or warrant these figures as indicative of valuation multiples attributable to EP companies or other interests.
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 15
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Appendix B
Production
Oil production in the Permian,
Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Appa-
lachia all experienced negative
production growth over the last
year, 7.8%, 24.2%, 18.9%, and
17.6% respectively.
Natural gas production in the
Appalachia has increased 2.8%
over the last year, whereas
Permian production has grown
1.8% in the same time frame.
Growth in the Eagle Ford
decreased 20.5% year-over-
year, and growth in the Bakken
decreased 6.1%.
Daily Production of Crude Oil
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
mmbbl/d
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia
Source: EIA
Source: EIA
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
mmcf/d
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia
Source: EIA
Daily Production of Natural Gas
Source: EIA
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 16
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Appendix C
Rig Count
Rig Count by Region
Baker Hughes collects and publishes information regarding active drilling rigs in the United States and internationally.
The number of active rigs is a key indicator of demand for oilfield services  equipment. Factors influencing rig counts
include energy prices, investment climate, technological changes, regulatory activity, weather, and seasonality.
The number of active rigs in the United States as of December 31, 2020 stood at 347, a 34.5% increase from Sep-
tember 30, 2020, and a 56.7% decrease from December 2019. The rig count in the Appalachia decreased from 52 to
32 rigs in over the last year as EP operators are cutting rigs in light of recent issues.
1	
Calculations based on monthly crude oil and gas production and EIA drilling report by region.
Source: Baker Hughes
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 17
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
U.S. Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas
Appendix C
Rig Count
U.S. Rig Count by Trajectory
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
D
e
c
-
1
5
J
u
n
-
1
6
D
e
c
-
1
6
J
u
n
-
1
7
D
e
c
-
1
7
J
u
n
-
1
8
D
e
c
-
1
8
J
u
n
-
1
9
D
e
c
-
1
9
J
u
n
-
2
0
D
e
c
-
2
0
Source: Baker Hughes
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
D
e
c
-
1
5
J
u
n
-
1
6
D
e
c
-
1
6
J
u
n
-
1
7
D
e
c
-
1
7
J
u
n
-
1
8
D
e
c
-
1
8
J
u
n
-
1
9
D
e
c
-
1
9
J
u
n
-
2
0
D
e
c
-
2
0
Directional Horizontal Vertical
Source: Baker Hughes
Oil Natural Gas
Source: Baker Hughes
Mercer Capital
www.mercercapital.com

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Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q4 2020 | Region Focus: Appalachian Basin

  • 1. BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES VALUE FOCUS Exploration & Production Fourth Quarter 2020 // Region Focus: Appalachian Basin EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The fourth quarter of 2020 experienced an increasing price environment compared to the volatile prices seen in the majority of 2020. WTI increased from approximately $40/bbl to $49/bbl during the fourth quarter. Natural gas was volatile but started and ended the quarter at approximately $2.50/mmbtu. The fourth quarter was a bit of a relief after experiencing (i) discord created by the OPEC / Russian rift and resulting supply surge; and (ii) the drop in demand due to COVID-19 related issues. However, the impacts of COVID-19 continue to play a role in the industry heading into 2021 as a full recovery is yet to be seen. In addition, the industry’s outlook will be impacted by the Biden Administration’s policies after being declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election. In this newsletter, we will examine the macroeconomic factors that have affected the industry in the fourth quarter and peek behind the curtain on what 2021 might hold.
  • 2. Contact Us BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES Oil and Gas Industry Services Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services to companies in the energy industry. Services Provided • Valuation of oil & gas companies • Transaction advisory for acquisitions and divestitures • Valuations for purchase accounting and impairment testing • Fairness and solvency opinions • Litigation support for economic damages and valuation and shareholder disputes Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS 214.468.8400 ericksonb@mercercapital.com Dallas Office Don Erickson, ASA 214.468.8400 ericksond@mercercapital.com Dallas Office J. David Smith, ASA, CFA 713.239.1005 smithd@mercercapital.com Houston Office Alex M. Barry, CFA 214.468.8400 barrya@mercercapital.com Dallas Office Jake M. Stacy 469.904.6718 stacyj@mercercapital.com Dallas Office Justin J. F. Ramirez, AM 832.966.0307 ramirezj@mercercapital.com Houston Office Learn More about Mercer Capital & our Oil and Gas Services at mer.cr/oilgas Copyright © 2021 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com. In This Issue Oil and Gas Commodity Prices 1 Macro Update OPEC+ 2 U.S. Production 3 Bankruptcy 3 Biden Elected President 3 Interest Rates 4 Region Focus: Appalachian Basin Production and Activity Levels 5 Financial Performance 7 Market Valuations Transaction History 8 EQT Corporation Adds to Core Marcellus Asset Base 9 Southwestern Energy Co. Expanding Appalachia Footprint 9 Shell States Strategy to Divest Appalachia Position 10 Selected Public Company Information 11 Production 15 Rig Count 16 Industry Segments Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments: • Exploration Production • Oil Field Services • Midstream Operations • Alternative Energy • Downstream • Retail
  • 3. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 1 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Crude prices gradually increased during the quarter, with WTI starting October at approximately $40/bbl and ending December at nearly $49/bbl. Brent followed the same pattern as WTI and ended the year at approximately $52/bbl. In December 2020’s Short Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) cited positive news regarding COVID-19 vaccines as a potential driver for the increase, as well as market expectations that OPEC+ would delay or limit production increases planned for January 2021. Natural gas prices were much more volatile starting and ending the quarter at approximately $2.50/mmbtu. Prices rose in October and early November as seasonal demand for heating increased but moderated later in the quarter as warmer-than-normal temperatures reduced heating demand. We note that Capital IQ has revised the default futures contracts utilized for historical commodity pricing. As such, the information shown may not tie to the analysis below. Oil and Gas Commodity Prices Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 D e c - 1 9 J a n - 2 0 F e b - 2 0 M a r - 2 0 A p r - 2 0 M a y - 2 0 J u n - 2 0 J u l - 2 0 A u g - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 O c t - 2 0 N o v - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) Crude Oil ($/bbl) WTI Brent Henry Hub Source: Capital IQ
  • 4. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 2 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Macro Update OPEC+ On June 6, 2020, OPEC+ members reached an agreement to continue cutting 9.7 million b/d, or about 10% of global output under normal circumstances, through July. The extended supply cuts helped oil prices continue their recovery from their drastic drop in April due to the demand issues caused by COVID-19. The original agreement that OPEC+ reached on April 12 stated that production was set to increase gradually after June, but members refined that plan and continued their supply cuts for another month. On July 15, OPEC + members agreed to loosen existing production caps by roughly 1.6 million b/d amid further economic recovery. The next production increase was scheduled for January 2021. Originally slated for ~2 million b/d, OPEC+ agreed to a much smaller increase of 500,000 b/d in their December 3 meeting. Perceived cohesion among OPEC+ members and a smaller than anticipated increase led to rising crude prices in December. The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production was 11.1 million b/d in December 2020, down 14% year-over- year. However, December’s production level was essentially flat relative to the prior month, and up 2% relative to September 2020. Going forward, the EIA expects total U.S. crude production for 2021 to average 11.1 million b/d (in line with current levels). However, the EIA expects production to decline over the next several months, as production declines from existing wells exceed new production from new wells. During the latter part of 2021, the EIA expects additional drilling activity in light of higher oil prices. U.S. Production
  • 5. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 3 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Macro Update (cont.) Bankruptcy Biden Elected President According to Haynes and Boone’s Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor, the pace of new bankruptcies slowed in the fourth quarter of 2020. Only six North American EP companies filed for bankruptcy in Q4, compared to 18 in Q2 and 17 in Q3. The largest of the Q4 bankruptcy filers was Gulfport Energy, with nearly $2.3 billion of unsecured debt. According to Gulfport’s Restructuring Support Agreement, the company expects to shed $1.25 billion of debt and substantially reduce interest expense. As of year-end 2020, Joe Biden had been elected President of the United States, but would not assume the role until inauguration in January 2021. While Biden’s platform has certain statements regarding oil gas policies, there will likely be considerable uncertainty until Biden assumes office. The greatest domestic impact could come from Biden’s plans to oppose fracking on federal lands and waters. Biden denied claims that he would ban fracking outright, instead stating that his platform would favor a ban on new fracking on federal lands and waters. According to SP Global Platts Analytics, eliminating the issuance of drilling permits for federal lands has the potential to shrink U.S. production by up to 1.1 million b/d of oil and 3.7 bcf/d of gas by 2025. In response, producers have accelerated permitting or shifted development plans to state or private lands.
  • 6. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 4 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Macro Update (cont.) Biden Elected President (cont.) Interest Rates It is also possible that Biden may deny the 570,000 b/d Dakota Access Pipeline a new permit, a move initiated by the Obama administration, leaving Bakken producers without capacity to transport roughly 300,000 b/d to market. U.S. crude exports that rely on certain pipelines will be affected by these future build-out decisions. During the final presidential debate, Joe Biden called for the U.S. to transition away from oil to address the environ- mental harm of climate change. The Biden administration would look to re-enter the Paris Climate Agreement, which Trump pulled out of during his term, in order to prioritize the movement away from fossil fuel energy sources. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in the month of March. On March 3, 2020, the Fed made an emer- gency decision to cut interest rates by 0.5% in response to the foreseeable economic slowdown due to the spread of the coronavirus. This cut was anticipated and largely shrugged off by the markets as interest rates continued their pre- cipitous decline. Benchmark rates were again cut on March 15 by a full percent to near zero. The Federal Reserve’s latest forecast suggest that rates will remain close to zero for the foreseeable future until inflation increases.
  • 7. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 5 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy The economics of oil and gas production varies by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford, Permian, Bakken, and Appalachia plays. The cost of producing oil and gas depends on the geological makeup of the reserve, depth of reserve, and cost to transport the raw crude to market. We can observe different costs in dif- ferent regions depending on these factors. This quarter we take a closer look at the Bakken. Estimated Appalachian production increased approximately 2% year-over-year through December. Appalachia was the only one of Mercer Capital’s coverage areas which saw an increase in production, with Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian production declining 16%, 22%, and 4%, respectively. While natural gas prices have been depressed for the past several years (largely rangebound between $1.50 and $3.00/mmbtu), they have not been nearly as volatile as (or negative like) crude oil prices. In fact, slowing oil production is somewhat bullish for natural gas prices, as that removes a significant amount of associated natural gas (i.e., natural gas produced from oil-focused wells) from the market. Appalachian Basin Production and Activity Levels 1-Year Change in Production -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% D e c - 1 9 J a n - 2 0 F e b - 2 0 M a r - 2 0 A p r - 2 0 M a y - 2 0 J u n - 2 0 J u l - 2 0 A u g - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 O c t - 2 0 N o v - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: Energy Information Administration Source: EIA
  • 8. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 6 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy The rig count in Appalachia stood at 32 as of year-end 2020, down 38% from the prior year. While significant, Appa- lachia’s decline in rig count (both in absolute and relative terms) was the smallest of Mercer Capital’s coverage areas, with rig counts in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian down 79%, 61%, and 57%, respectively. Over the past year, Appalachia shed 20 rigs, relative to 230 in the Permian and 41 in each of the Bakken and Eagle Ford. However, with rising commodity prices, rig counts in the Permian and Eagle Ford are up materially from their troughs in August. Appalachia and Bakken producers have been more circumspect, holding rig counts largely flat. EP management teams have been preaching capital discipline, though it remains to be seen whether they remain disciplined in a higher commodity price environment. Production and Activity Levels (cont.) 1-Year Change in Rig Count -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% D e c - 1 9 J a n - 2 0 F e b - 2 0 M a r - 2 0 A p r - 2 0 M a y - 2 0 J u n - 2 0 J u l - 2 0 A u g - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 O c t - 2 0 N o v - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Total Source: Baker Hughes Source: Baker Hughes
  • 9. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 7 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy All Appalachia companies, with the exception of Gulfport (which is currently navigating the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process), handily outperformed the broader EP market (as proxied by the SPDR SP Oil Gas Exploration Pro- duction ETF, XOP). This is largely a function of the relative strength of natural gas prices compared to crude. The best performer in the Appalachia peer group for 2020 was Antero, though after declining 70% during 2019, it had the lowest base from which to grow. Cabot, which has historically been one Appalachia’s best performers, was the basin’s laggard. Financial Performance 1-Year Change in Stock Price -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% D e c - 1 9 J a n - 2 0 F e b - 2 0 M a r - 2 0 A p r - 2 0 M a y - 2 0 J u n - 2 0 J u l - 2 0 A u g - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 O c t - 2 0 N o v - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 AR COG EQT GPOR.Q RRC SWN XOP Source: Capital IQ Source: Capital IQ
  • 10. Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Transaction Activity Spurred by a Number of Variables Transaction activity in the Appalachia over the last year has picked up relative to 2019. The increase in deals was driven in part by the relative price stability of natural gas as compared to oil in 2020, which would naturally tend to favor MA activity in these gas heavy basins. Another observation is that companies are making critical decisions on where they choose to operate moving forward. Companies, like Shell, are standing firm on their stance to divest their Appalachia assets, while other companies, like EQT, are adding to their basin footprint. A table detailing transaction activity in the Appalachia over the last twelve months is shown below. Relative to activity in 2019, deal count increased by fourteen and average deal size increased by roughly $40 million year-over-year. Market Valuations Transaction History Transactions in the Applachian Basin Announced Date Buyer Seller Deal Value ($MM) $ / Acre $ / Boepd 11/17/20 Rising Phoenix Royalties Undisclosed Seller Undisclosed nm nm 11/6/20 Undisclosed Buyer EOG Resources, Inc. 130 2,826 2,321 10/27/20 EQT Corp Cheveron Corp 735 2,194 1,633 9/18/20 Smart Sand Inc Eagle Materials Inc. 2 nm nm 9/11/20 Pin Oak Midstream LLC Laurel Mountain Energy LLC Undisclosed nm nm 9/4/20 Rising Phoenix Royalties CNX Resources Undisclosed nm nm 8/31/20 Rising Phoenix Royalties Undisclosed Seller Undisclosed nm nm 8/12/20 Southwestern Energy Co. Montage Resources Corp. 857 2,641 1,475 8/11/20 JP Morgan Securities Antero Resources 220 nm 3,667 7/27/20 CNX Resources CNX Midstream Partners 357 nm nm 7/8/20 Undisclosed Buyer Harvest Oil Gas Corp 21 29 700 6/15/20 Sixth Street Partners LLC Antero Resources 402 nm nm 5/14/20 Diversified Gas Oil EQT Corp 125 nm 14 5/4/20 National Fuel Gas Co. Royal Dutch Shell 541 1,353 2,437 4/14/20 Diversified Gas Oil Carbon Energy Corp. 110 nm 2 1/24/20 KeyBank EdgeMarc Energy 70 2,188 1,489 12/19/19 Undisclosed Buyer Gulfport Energy Corp. 29 nm nm 10/22/19 Nextera Energy Partners LP Ares Management LP, Meade Pipeline Co LLC 286 nm nm 10/21/19 Undisclosed Buyer Range Resources Corp 150 nm nm 9/30/19 Nextera Energy Partners LP Meade Pipeline Co LLC 1,370 nm nm Median $8 $2,191 $1,489 Average $38 $1,872 $1,526 Source: Shale Experts *Does not include every transaction in the region for 2019-2020
  • 11. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 9 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy In October 2020, EQT Corporation announced that the company planned to acquire Chevron’s upstream and midstream assets located in the Appalachia for $735 million, subject to closing in late fourth quarter of 2020. EQT intends to finance the acquisition with cash on hand, drawings under its revolving credit facility, and/or one or more capital markets transac- tions. The asset is comprised of approximately 125,000 core acres and 210,000 acres in the surrounding area. Current net production is approximately 450 MMcfe per day, 74% gas and 25% liquids, with approximately 100 work-in progress wells. The transaction also includes a 31% ownership interest in Laurel Mountain Midstream and two water pipeline systems, one in Pennsylvania and one in West Virginia. The midstream component accounted for approximately $15 million of LTM EBITDA as of June 30, 2020. Toby Rice, President and CEO of EQT, stated that the acquisition is a natural bolt-on extension of the company’s position in the basin. He also mentioned that the purchase price was underpinned by PDP value, the work-in-progress well inventory, core undeveloped acreage, and water assets, which all provide material upside from their perspective. The purchase price was comprised of approximately $635 million in PDP value at PV-17, $100 million for the midstream component (6.5x LTM EBITDA) and supported by the potential upside afforded by the work- in-progress wells and 70,000 core net undeveloped Marcellus acres. On August 12, 2020, Southwestern Energy Co. announced that they agreed to acquire Montage Resources in an all- stock transaction. Montage Resources shareholders received 1.8656 shares of Southwestern for each Montage Resources share. The deal closed on November 13, 2020 with an implied transaction value of $857 million at announcement, including $670 million of debt. Montage’s asset base consisted of 324,500 net acres across Southeast Ohio, Northwest West Virginia, and Northeast Pennsylvania. The pro forma overview is shown in the table to the right. Market Valuations Transaction History EQT Corporation Adds to Core Marcellus Asset Base Southwestern Energy Co. Expanding Appalachia Footprint N 1 Pro Forma Metrics SWN + MR Market Cap $1.9 Billion Enterprise Value $5.0 Billion Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 3.0x 2019 Proved Reserved 15.5 Tcfe Natural Gas 79% Oil 5% NGL 17% 2019 Proved Reserves PV-10 $5.2 Billion YTD June 2020 Production 2.8 Bcfe/d Natural Gas 79% Oil 4% NGL 17% Net Acres 786,000 Total Locations 5,150 Source: Southwestern Energy Investor Presentation
  • 12. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 10 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy On May 4, 2020, National Fuel Gas Co. announced that it was going to acquire Shell’s upstream and midstream gath- ering assets in Pennsylvania for $541 million ($500 million after closing adjustments). The all-cash transaction closed on July 31, 2020 with an effective date of January 1, 2020. The deal included 400,000 total net acres across Pennsyl- vania (200,000 are contiguous to National Fuel’s existing acreage), 710 Bcf of net P90 proved reserves (100% developed producing), 215-230 Mmcf/d net production, and 142 miles of gathering pipelines, compression, and related facilities. Wael Sawan, Upstream Director at Shell, stated, “Divesting our Appalachia position is consistent with our desire to focus our shales portfolio. It is a core part of our upstream portfolio along with the deep water and conventional oil and gas businesses.” After adjusting for the value of the midstream assets acquired as part of the transaction, management indicated that the effective multiple on the upstream component was approximately $1,250/ flowing mcfe. Based on the hedge portfolio and NYMEX strip at the acquisition date, NFG’s CEO David Bauer stated that the PDP assets were acquired at “better than PV-20.” MA transaction activity in the Appalachia increased as company’s made decisions whether to add to their core basin acreage or divest and focus on other basins. Companies also seemed to indicate their optimistic outlook on natural gas. It will be interesting to follow whether companies choose to divest their gas positions or increase the asset’s weight in their portfolios. Market Valuations Transaction History Shell States Strategy to Divest Appalachia Position N 1
  • 13. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 11 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy as of 12/31/2020 Company Name Ticker 12/31/2020 Enterprise Value YoY % Change in Stock Price EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Global Integrated Exxon Mobil Corp XOM $212,334 -50.80% 10.7% 10.1x 3,777 $56,216 Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS/A $172,436 -57.32% 16.3% 4.8x 3,541 $48,699 Chevron Corp CVX $162,625 -40.25% 13.2% 11.9x 3,084 $52,727 BP PLC BP $123,665 -53.74% 6.5% 9.2x 3,553 $34,802 Equinor ASA EQNR $61,453 -29.38% 22.9% 5.5x 2,234 $27,504 Group Median -50.80% 13.2% 9.2x 3,541 $48,699 Global EP Marathon Oil Corp MRO $8,155 -69.88% 52.4% 4.4x 340 $23,962 Hess Corp HES $21,197 -38.74% 2.1% nm 320 $66,170 ConocoPhillips COP $44,088 -49.50% 32.6% 6.4x 1,193 $36,944 Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY $57,617 -75.71% -22.3% nm 1,178 $48,930 APA Corp APA $14,171 -62.99% -104.0% nm na na Murphy Oil Corp MUR $5,095 -66.72% 5.5% 40.6x 162 $31,381 Group Median -64.85% 3.8% 6.4x 340 $36,944 Source: Bloomberg L.P. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d) • We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified. Mercer Capital tracks the performance of Exploration and Production companies across different mineral reserves in order to understand how the current pricing envi- ronment affects operators in each region. We created an index of seven groups to better understand performance trends across reserves and the industry. The current pricing multiples of each company in the index are summarized below. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 14. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 12 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy as of 12/31/2020 Company Name Ticker 12/31/2020 Enterprise Value YoY % Change in Stock Price EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* North American EP Devon Energy Corp DVN $6,589 -63.57% -13.8% nm 341 $19,318 QEP Resources Inc QEP $1,858 -79.94% 61.9% 3.2x 78 $23,735 WPX Energy Inc WPX $5,779 -64.34% 11.8% nm 208 $27,736 Group Median -64.34% 11.8% 3.2x 208 $23,735 Bakken Continental Resources Inc/OK CLR $10,476 -52.48% 55.2% 6.4x 299 $35,017 Whiting Petroleum Corp WLL $1,325 na 33.8% 5.3x 88 $15,127 Oasis Petroleum Inc OAS $1,539 na -331.7% nm 60 $25,603 Group Median -52.48% 33.8% 5.9x 88 $25,603 Appalachia Range Resources Corp RRC $4,814 36.49% -106.3% nm 369 $13,047 EQT Corp EQT $8,022 18.62% -29.0% nm 677 $11,847 Cabot Oil Gas Corp COG $8,116 -0.29% 52.7% 10.5x 404 $20,083 Antero Resources Corp AR $6,874 -3.51% 22.0% 6.8x 566 $12,136 Southwestern Energy Co SWN $3,918 -2.89% -45.6% nm 489 $8,012 Group Median -0.29% -29.0% 8.6x 489 $12,136 Source: Bloomberg L.P. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d) • We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 15. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 13 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy as of 12/31/2020 Company Name Ticker 12/31/2020 Enterprise Value YoY % Change in Stock Price EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Permian Basin Concho Resources Inc CXO $12,133 -49.62% -183.2% nm 314 $38,656 Parsley Energy Inc PE $6,947 -50.50% -166.1% nm 183 $37,917 Diamondback Energy Inc FANG $11,639 -67.56% -97.6% nm 287 $40,597 Centennial Resource Development Inc/DE CDEV $1,259 -86.96% 53.0% 3.7x 54 $23,493 Callon Petroleum Co CPE $3,420 -0.21% -153.4% nm 93 $36,717 Laredo Petroleum Inc LPI $1,320 241.46% -33.4% nm 81 $16,387 Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD $16,301 -43.19% 26.3% 8.0x 361 $45,181 Cimarex Energy Co XEC $4,483 -53.65% -104.1% nm 232 $19,294 Group Median -50.06% -100.9% 5.8x 208 $37,317 Eagle Ford EOG Resources Inc EOG $23,836 -57.09% 44.2% 4.4x 795 $29,993 Magnolia Oil Gas Corp MGY $1,547 -58.90% -160.7% nm 59 $26,366 SilverBow Resources Inc SBOW $500 -60.30% -121.4% nm 30 $16,595 Penn Virginia Corp PVAC $651 -67.55% -40.5% nm 24 $26,729 Group Median -59.60% -80.9% 4.4x 44 $26,547 OVERALL MEDIAN -53.06% 3.8% 6.4x 320 $27,504 Source: Bloomberg L.P. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d) • We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 16. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 14 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Price per Flowing Barrel Appendix A Selected Public Company Information The following graph depicts the median of EV/production multiples, also known as price per flowing barrel, at the end of the past six quarters. As has been the case for some time now, operators in the Permian continue to lead the other regions in terms of valuation, although this margin is decreasing. The Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Appalachia saw a decrease in their price per flowing barrel in the fourth quarter of 8%, 19%, 19%, and 0.5%, respectively. Low commodity prices, relative to years past, have negatively impacted operators regardless of region, as three of the four basins have seen a decline in price per flowing barrel in the range of 25% to 40% since Q4 2019. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d) • This is simply a graphic depiction of median figures of our selected public companies for each region. This should be interpreted solely in the context of relative valuation between the various basins over time. Bloomberg aggregates this raw data, and Mercer Capital does not represent or warrant these figures as indicative of valuation multiples attributable to EP companies or other interests.
  • 17. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 15 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Appendix B Production Oil production in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Appa- lachia all experienced negative production growth over the last year, 7.8%, 24.2%, 18.9%, and 17.6% respectively. Natural gas production in the Appalachia has increased 2.8% over the last year, whereas Permian production has grown 1.8% in the same time frame. Growth in the Eagle Ford decreased 20.5% year-over- year, and growth in the Bakken decreased 6.1%. Daily Production of Crude Oil 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 mmbbl/d Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: EIA Source: EIA 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 mmcf/d Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: EIA Daily Production of Natural Gas Source: EIA
  • 18. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 16 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Appendix C Rig Count Rig Count by Region Baker Hughes collects and publishes information regarding active drilling rigs in the United States and internationally. The number of active rigs is a key indicator of demand for oilfield services equipment. Factors influencing rig counts include energy prices, investment climate, technological changes, regulatory activity, weather, and seasonality. The number of active rigs in the United States as of December 31, 2020 stood at 347, a 34.5% increase from Sep- tember 30, 2020, and a 56.7% decrease from December 2019. The rig count in the Appalachia decreased from 52 to 32 rigs in over the last year as EP operators are cutting rigs in light of recent issues. 1 Calculations based on monthly crude oil and gas production and EIA drilling report by region. Source: Baker Hughes
  • 19. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 17 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Fourth Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy U.S. Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas Appendix C Rig Count U.S. Rig Count by Trajectory 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 D e c - 1 5 J u n - 1 6 D e c - 1 6 J u n - 1 7 D e c - 1 7 J u n - 1 8 D e c - 1 8 J u n - 1 9 D e c - 1 9 J u n - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 Source: Baker Hughes 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 D e c - 1 5 J u n - 1 6 D e c - 1 6 J u n - 1 7 D e c - 1 7 J u n - 1 8 D e c - 1 8 J u n - 1 9 D e c - 1 9 J u n - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 Directional Horizontal Vertical Source: Baker Hughes Oil Natural Gas Source: Baker Hughes