This document provides an overview of the objectives and methodology for a climate change impact and adaptation study on natural and agricultural systems in the Mekong River Basin. The study aims to identify climate change impacts and vulnerabilities, define adaptation strategies, and communicate results. Key aspects of the methodology include taking an ecosystem approach, identifying climate change hotspots, analyzing shifts in climate zones, ecosystems and farming systems, and assessing vulnerability through factors like exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Impacts on water resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity will be evaluated.

1. Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and
Adaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural
Systems
First Regional Workshop
October 31th – November 1st 2012
Sofitel Plaza Hotel, Hanoi, Vietnam
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2. Task 2 Aim
 To conduct a climate change impact
and adaptation study on the water
resources, food security, livelihoods
and biodiversity of the Mekong River
Basin

3. ARCC Task 2: CC Vulnerability Assessment &
Adaptation Study - Objectives
Take an ecosystems approach in:
1. Identifying CC impact and vulnerabilities of rural poor
and their environment - water resources, food security,
livelihoods and biodiversity (fisheries and wildlife);
2. Identifying hot spots in the LMB: provide a scientific
evidence base to guide the selection of pilot project sites;
3. Defining adaptation strategies to inform community
and ecosystem-based adaptation pilot projects and
4. Communicating the results of the vulnerability
assessment and adaptation planning.
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ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management

4. Task 2: Climate change and LMB
farming ecosystems
Threat
Climate changes
Hydrological changes
LMB ecozones
Impact
(farming ecosystems)
Farming ecosystem species
Subsistence crops
commercial crops
Crop wild species
Industrial and
Vulnerability
Aquaculture
Traditional
landraces
Livestock
Wild fish
Wild life
species
NTFPs
Adaptation
Adaptation options and priorities
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5. Farming systems climate
change vulnerability continuum
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6. Integrated livelihoods
Agricultur NTFPs
e
Fisheries Livelihoods Livestock
Health Infrastructure

7. The farming system
trend
Rural to urban migration
Small holdings Land Commercial firms
Labour intensive consolidation and plantations
Low captial Increased capital High capital
intensity intensity intensity
Subsistence Intermediate Commercial
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8. Task 2 study key concepts
E c o s y s t e m a p p r o a c h
• Recognises that all things are linked in a fabric across landscapes
S h i f t s
• Climate shifts
• Ecosystem shifts
• Farming system shifts
Z o n e s
• Ecozones
• Climate zones
C l i m a t e c h a n g e h o t s p o t s
• Ecozones
• Sub-catchments
• Provinces
• Protected areas
C o m f o r t z o n e s
• Species
• Ecosystems
• Ecozones
W a t e r a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x
• Soil water
• Evapotranspiration
• Rainfall
• Surface water
S u i t a b i l i t y a n d c r o p y i e l d
• Land suitability for crops under climate climate 8
• Crop yields in different areas under climate change

9. Ecosystem approach
Ecosystem approach – recognises:
• the importance of relationships and linkages between
all parts of farming systems and their environment
• the distinctive character and tolerance levels of each
ecosystem to change
• the different spatial levels of ecosystems which are
important to farming system health and productivity
(from soil to ecozone)
• the services which assemblages of wild species and
other natural resources provide to farming systems
• its importance as a basis for adaptation in farming
systems 9
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10. Zones
Zones provide a common analytical framework for the study team
Purpose of zoning is to identify areas of the basin with common:
 climate change characteristics
 bio-physical characteristics
 farming system characteristics
Two types of zones:
1. Climate change zones – temperature, rainfall, extreme
events, water availability and hydrology
2. Ecological zones – natural habitat, species and genetic
resources
We overlaid the climate change zones on the ecozones at
various levels of focus
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11. Zones
Climate change
zones
Areas experiencing similar
climate change
1. Annual + seasonal rainfall
averages & extremes
2. Annual + seasonal
temperature averages &
extremes
3. Specific tolerance &
threshold maps (eg
droughts and extreme
events)
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12. Zones
Ecozones
Ecozones have detailed:
 biophysical descriptors
(elevation, temperature,
rainfall and landform)
 natural system descriptors
(vegetation, soils)
 agricultural, livestock and
fisheries profiles
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13. Shifts
Three “shifts” associated with climate change in the
LMB
Climate
change
shifts
Farming
system
shifts
Ecological
shifts
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14. Shifts
Climate change shifts Climate
change
shifts
Farming
system
Regular climate shifts Ecological
shifts
shifts
1. Geographic shifts (space):
 latitude and longitude
 elevation
2. Seasonal shifts (time)
 onset and end,
 variability
Extreme events shifts
3. Extreme event shifts – intensity, regularity, location
 Micro events – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands
 Macro events – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall
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15. Shifts
Geographic shift Shift in zone of suitability
in climate Original extent of for habitat and crops
natural habitat
Paddy rice
and
commercial
crops
Remaining
natural habitat Subsistence crops and NTF
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pockets collection
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16. Shifts
Climate
change
shifts
Ecological shifts due to cc in the LMB Farming
system
shifts
Ecological
• Geographic shift in species ranges
shifts
• Substantial range losses
• Seasonal shifts in life cycle events (eg. advances in
flowering and fruiting, fish and bird migration)
• Body size changes - warming associated with
decreased body size
• Community composition changes: Warm-adapted
species in communities increase – others die out
• Genetic changes (eg tolerance shifts; stress proteins)
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17. Shifts
Climate
change
Farming ecosystem shifts – climate and shifts
Farming
system
shifts
ecological changes will lead to, for example: Ecological
shifts
• Diminished ecological provisioning services:
 Increased reliance on hybrids
 Diminished wild genetic diversity
 Reduced crop diversity
 Reduced availability and access to NTFPs
 Increased water demand
• Diminished regulatory and habitat services
 Reduced pollination and pest control
 Reduced soil organic (carbon) content
 Reduced soil micro fauna and flora
• Less stable systems requiring more intensive inputs 17
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18. Hot spots
Identifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas
 High exposure:
 significant climate change relative to base
Mekong Basin
conditions
 exposure to new climate/hydrological
conditions Ecozone hot
spots
 High sensitivity:
 limited temperature and moisture tolerance Sub-catchment
range and provincial
hotspots
 degraded and/or under acute pressure
 severely restricted geographic range
 rare or threatened Local area hot
 Low adaptive capacity spots
(eg protected
 Poor connectivity area clusters)
 Low diversity and tolerances
 Homogenous systems ICEM 2012 18

19. Hot spots
Mekong Basin
Ecozone hot
spots
Sub-catchment
and provincial
hotspots
Local area hot
spots
(eg protected
area clusters)
Rainfall
climate change
threat hot spot
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20. Hot spots
Mekong Basin
Ecozone hot
spots
Sub-catchment
and provincial
hotspots
Local area hot
spots
(eg protected
area clusters)
Temperature
climate change
threat hot spot
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21. Hot spots
Mekong Basin
Ecozone hot
spots
Sub-catchment
and provincial
hotspots
Local area hot
spots
(eg protected
area clusters)
Industrial and
commercial
crops
climate change threat
hotspots
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22. Comfort zones
Farming ecosystem “assets”
Top commercial crops
Vietnam Laos Thailand Cambodia
Rice, paddy Rice, paddy Rice, paddy Rice, paddy
Coffee, green Maize Rubber Cassava
Cashew nuts, with shell Coffee, green Cassava Maize
Cassava Tobacco, Sugar cane Bananas
Fruit trees: Bananas and Traditional crop varieties Wild plants
mangoes  Rice (more than 13,000  Cardamom,
identified in Lao  Rattan and bamboo
Vegetables: Sweet potatoes,  Eggplant (more than 3000  Orchids
tomatoes, beans, chilli in Lao)  Mushrooms
 Papaya
Subsistence crops  Banana (centre of origin) Crop wild relatives
 Lowland and upland rice  Mango (centre of origin)  Glutinous rice (centre of
 Cassava  Pineapple origin
 Maize  Water melon  Eggplant (centre of origin)
 Peanuts  Passion fruits
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Centre of origin for: coconut palm, sugarcane, clove, nutmeg, black pepper, onion, cucumber

23. Comfort zones
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24. Comfort zones
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25. Species comfort zones
Optimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature
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26. Species comfort zones
Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation
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27. Species comfort zones
Se San: Commercial crops with climate change
• Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and precipitation
would open upland areas for rubber cultivation.
• Coffee plantations would suffer from changes in rainfall patterns
and/or excess rainfall in the highland areas (especially Arabica).
• Cassava: Relatively resistant to drought so would become a
substitute in rain fed agricultural systems in drier areas BUT would
have reduced suitability in high rainfall areas.
• Sweet potato and key root crops not well suited to higher rainfall
and soil moisture conditions and higher temperatures
• Soybean would suffer from higher temperatures - shift to higher
elevation may be required.
• Bananas and mangoes: increases in temperature and
precipitation would open upland areas for cultivation
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28. Ecosystem comfort zones
Figure 5
50
Mid elevation dry
broadleaf forest - 45
Mondulkiri
Daily maximum temperature (Deg C)
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Ecosystem comfort zone:
The range of 35
precipitation or
temperature that was
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experienced during 50% C. Z.
of the baseline around C. Z.
the mean. 25
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Baseline Wet Season CC Wet Season Baseline Dry Season CC Dry Season
(Jun-Nov) (Jun-Nov) (Dec - May) (Dec - May)

29. Water availability index
Soil water availability  Index to measure the
changes in soil water
availability
 Considers:
Precipitation  Rainfall
 Temperature
Transpiration  Evapo-transpiration
 Surface water
Evaporation  Soil water
 Soil type
Surface run-off
Surface layer water availability
Infiltration Subsurface layer water availability
Groundwater availability 29

30. Land suitability and
crop yield
Land suitability: Identifies areas suitable for different
species under differing conditions of climate, topography
and soils
• Historic suitability of basin for a range of commercial and
subsistence crops
• Suitability with climate change
• Assessment of shifts in geographical and seasonal
suitability
Crop yields in hot spot areas:
• Losses or gains in crop yields within hot spots
• Yield potential for new crops in hot spots
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31. Se San Basin – land suitability
Lowland rice
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32. Se San Basin – land suitability
rubber
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33. Se San Basin – land suitability
Coffee (coffea canephora)
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34. Se San Basin – land suitability
cassava
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35. Se San Basin – land suitability
Maize
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36. Crop yield with climate
change
 Defining impact of water availability on
each growth phase and quantifies
resulting changes in yield
Source: FAO, 2010

37. Climate change impact
and vulnerability
assessment method
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ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management

38. Conceptual
framework for
responding to climate
change
Assessing vulnerability
 Exposure x sensitivity = impact
 Impact x adaptive capacity =
vulnerability
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39. Multiplier Impacts
Production
Poverty
Food security
Sector growth
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Ecosystem
services/products

40. Steps in the CAM assessment
process
Baseline VA Final
report report report
Inception and Baseline Vulnerability Adaptation
scoping  zoning impacts of options for:
Definition of  trend analysis “threats” on  Zones/habitats
 scope  CC threat  Zones/habitats  hot spots
 methods modeling  hot spots  agricultural
 Hot spots  agricultural systems
 land suitability systems
 species/crops
 crop modeling  species/crops
 GIS analysis 40
Mekong ARCC Second Team working session, 24-28 September, HANOI

41. Inputs to vulnerability
assessment method
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42. Jeremy Carew-Reid,
ICEM – International Centre
for Environmental
Management
www.icem.com.au 42