1. Workshop on
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Interim Results
CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM
AND RESPOND
Tran Thuc,
Director General, Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment
thuc@netnam.vn
Hanoi, 31 October 2012

2. CONTENTS
1) Climate Change in Viet Nam
2) Climate Change Scenarios
3) Vietnam Response to Climate Change

3. CURRENT STATUS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM

4. Climate Change in Viet Nam
Temperature
 Over the past 50 years,
annual average temperature
has increased 0.5oC.
 Temp in the North
increased faster than in the
South.
 Temp inland increased
faster than in coastal areas
and islands.

5. Climate Change in Viet Nam
Temperature
Min temperature
increases faster than
max. temperature
Max Temperature
Min Temperature

6. Climate Change in Viet Nam
Number of Day with Max. Temp > 35oC (1961-2007)
Increased trends most of VN, except South-Central and

7. Climate Change in Viet Nam
Number of Day with min. Temp < 1 3oC (1961-2007)
Tm < 20oC
Tm < 20oC
Increased trends in Min. temperature

8. Climate Change in Viet Nam
Rainfall 19hrs 30/10/08 Off-season
Station
to 1hrs 1/11/08
extreme rainfall
Ha Noi 408 occur more
Ha Dong 572 frequently,
Hung Yen 158 profound event
Hai Duong - was the rainfall
in Ha Noi and its
Hoa Binh 129
surround in
Bac Giang 136 11/2008.
Hiep Hoa 186
• Decreasing in the North
• Increasing in the South

9. Climate Change in Viet Nam
Daily Max. Rainfall (1961-2007)
• Increases in
North-West,
Central-
Highlands,
South-Central,
South.
• Decreases in
other regions.

10. Climate Change in Viet Nam
Cold Front
• Frequency of cold front decreases significantly.
• But, extreme cold front appeared more frequent: 38 days in
2008, recently a damage cold spell lasted nearly 1 month
Number of damage cold days reduces

11. Climate Change in Viet Nam
TẦN SỐ XTNĐ TRÊN CÁC ĐOẠN BỜ BIỂN HAI THỜI KỲ
Typhoon
40
• Landing area of typhoon
30
retreated southward;
20
Cơn
• Change in frequency of
10 typhoon is not clear, but
0 frequency of very strong
BB TNT BTT ĐN - BĐ PY - BT NB
typhoon (> level 12)
1961- 90 THẬP KỶ 1991 - 05
increases.

12. Climate Change in Viet Nam
Drought
 Drought occure more frequently. Dry
seasons in 2009-2010, 2010-2011,
serious drought appeared in North delta
South-Central; Central Highlands; and
South delta.
 Dry and deficient water was significantly
in dry season of 2010-2011. Water level,
discharge, and water reserves in water
reservoir have minimum levels.

13. Sea Level Rise in Vietnam
Water Level Measurement

14. Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Bãi Cháy
10.0
5.0
Mực nước (cm)
0.0
-5.0
Sea Level Rise
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Hòn Dáu
20
15
Mực nước (cm)
10
5
0
-5
-10
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Cồn Cỏ
10
Data from gauging stations
8
6
4
Mực nước (cm)
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Năm
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Cửa Việt
10
8
6
4
• Sea level has increased about
Mực nước (cm)
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
2.8 mm/year;
Năm
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Sơn Trà
10
5
Mực nước (cm)
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Quy Nhơn
20
15
Mực nước (cm) 10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Năm
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Phú QUýháy
20
15
10
Mực nước (cm)
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Vũng Tàu
20
15
10
Mực nước (cm)
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Phú Quốc
10
8
6
4
Mực nước (cm)
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Rạch Giá
10.0
5.0
0.0
Mực nước (cm)
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm

15. Sea Level Rise
Satellite Data
 In the whole East Sea: SLR
about 4.7 mm/year (1993-
2009);
 In the coastal area of Vietnam:
SLR about 2.9 mm / year;

16. Climate Change Scenarios
for Viet Nam

17. Climate Change Scenarios
Emission Scenarios Models Applied
• Low emission scenario (B1); • Statistical Downscaling:
• Medium emission scenario (B2) SDSM, SimClim
• High emission scenario (A2, • Dynamic Downscaling:
A1FI) AGCM/MRI, PRECIS
Baseline: 1980-1999
GHG emission scenario (IPCC)

18. Climate Change Scenarios
• Temperature in Winter: XII-II • Yearly Average Temperature
• Temperature in Spring: III-V • Extreme Temperature in Winter
• Temperature in Summer: VI-VII • Extreme Temperature in Summer
• Temperature in Autumn: IX-XI • Annual Extreme Temperature
Number of Days with Temperature > 35oC
Mức tăng nhiệt độ mùa đông Mức tăng nhiệt độ mùa đông Mức tăng nhiệt độ mùa đông
kịch bản phát thải thấp kịch bản phát thải trung bình kịch bản phát thải cao

19. Climate Change Scenarios
• Rainfall in Winter: XII-II • Annual Rainfall
• Rainfall in Spring: III-V • Maximum Daily Rainfall
• Rainfall in Summer: VI-VII
• Rainfall in Autumn: IX-XI
(a) (b) (c)

20. Sea Level Rise Scenarios
• Low emission scenario (B1): 49-64cm.
• Average emission scenario (B2): 57-73cm.
• High emission scenario (A1FI): 78-95cm.

21. Inundation Map
(Sea Level Rise 1m)
Area: 20.876 Km2 (6,3%)
If sea level rise 1 m:
•39% area of Mekong Delta, over 10%
area of Red River Delta, over 2,5% of
coastal area of the Central, over 20%
area of Ho Chi Minh city will be
inundated.
•35% population of Mekong Delta, over
9% population of Red River delta, about
9% population of the Central, 7%
population of HCM City are directly
affected.
•4% of the railway system, 9% of
national highways, 12% of provincial
highways unaffected.

22. Red River Delta
Tỉnh %
Q Ninh 11.3
Ha Noi 0.3
Ha Nam 6.0
Hai Phong 17.4
Hung Yen 3.3
Hai Duong 7.2
Bac Ninh 1.6
Ninh Binh 10.2
Thai Binh 31.2
Nam Dinh 24.4
Vinh Phuc 0.0

23. THANH HOA
3.1%

24. NGHE AN
1.0%

25. HA TINH
4.8%

26. QUẢNG BÌNH
3.8%

27. QUẢNG TRỊ
4.1%

28. TT. HUẾ
6.1%

29. ĐÀ NẴNG
4.1%

30. QUẢNG NAM
1.0%

31. QUẢNG NGÃI
1.8%

32. BÌNH ĐỊNH
2.2%

33. PHÚ YÊN
2.0%

34. KHÁNH HOÀ
2.9%

35. NINH THUẬN
1.9%

36. BÌNH THUẬN
0.7%

37. BÀ RỊA - VŨNG TÀU
5.9%

38. TP HỒ CHÍ MINH
20.1 %

39. AnGiang 2.2%
BacLieu 45.7%
BenTre 33.3%
CaMau 55.9%
CanTho 19.0%
DongThap 4.8%
VinhLong 15.6%
TraVinh 27.8%
SocTrang 51.2%
TienGiang 30.3%
Mekong Delta LongAn 28.5%
KienGiang 74.8%
39% HauGiang 79.4%

40. VIETNAM RESPOND
TO CLIMATE CHANGE

41. NATIONAL TARGET PROGRAM TO RESPOND TO CC
Identify the extent of CC and assess CC
Identify the extent of CC and assess CC Strategic objectives:
impacts on sector, area and locality Strategic objectives:
impacts on sector, area and locality Assess CC impacts on
Assess CC impacts on
Identify measures to respond to CC sectors and regions
sectors and regions
Identify measures to respond to CC
and develop feasible
and develop feasible
Promote scientific and technological
Promote scientific and technological action plans to
activities to respond to CC action plans to
activities to respond to CC effectively respond to
effectively respond to
Enhance organizational structure,
Enhance organizational structure, CC in the short and
CC in the short and
institutional capacity and development and
institutional capacity and development and long-term to ensure
implementation of policies long-term to ensure
implementation of policies sustainable
sustainable
Enhance public awareness and develop
Enhance public awareness and develop development of VN.
development of VN.
human resources
human resources To take opportunities
To take opportunities
Promote international cooperation
Promote international cooperation to develop towards aa
to develop towards
Mainstream CC issues into socio- low-carbon economy,
low-carbon economy,
Mainstream CC issues into socio- and to join the
economic, sectoral and local development
economic, sectoral and local development and to join the
strategies, plans and planning
strategies, plans and planning international
international
Develop and implement action plans of community’s efforts in
community’s efforts in
Develop and implement action plans of mitigating CC.
sectors and localities to respond to CC
sectors and localities to respond to CC mitigating CC.

42. Results of Two Year Implementation
at Central level:
•Training and education programmes at all levels;
•CC awareness prgrogram;
•Framework to integrate CC issues into development plans;
•CC impacts assessment, adaptation measures identification,
and Action Plans development.
•National Strategy on Climate Change
•National Action Plan on Climate Change
•Scientific and technological research program on CC
•CC and sea level rise scenario
•International cooperation, negotiation and fund raising

43. Results of Two Year Implementation
at local level:
Two pilot provinces (Quang Nam, Ben Tre);
Six coastal provinces in Mekong River Delta (Ca Mau, Kien
Giang, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, Can Tho, Ho Chi Minh City).
Other projects under the SP-RCC.

44. DIFFICULTIES IN IMPLEMENTATION
1) Poor awareness (scope, level, measures) at all levels
and sectors (from officials to communities);
2) Weak coordination for mainstreaming CC in
national/local policies & plans due to
"mainstreaming overload";
3) Lack of tools and methodologies for policy
development;
4) Lack of knowledge.

45. Vietnam National Strategy on Climate Change
1) Respond to Natural Disasters and Monitor CC Impacts
2) Food and Water Security
3) Adapt to Sea Level Rise in Vulnerable Areas
4) Protection and Sustainable Development of Forest, Increasing
Carbon Removals and Biodiversity Conservation
5) GHG Emission Reduction to Protect Global Climate System
6) Strengthen role of the Government in responding to CC
7) Develop effective community response to CC
8) Develop scientific and technological advances to respond to CC
9) Enhance international cooperation
10) Diversify financial resources and investments on CC.

46. THANK YOU