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China new energy (abstract) - Maverlinn
1. China economic growth sets pace for securing
energy ressources for the 21st century
Confidential, January 2014
2. Summary
Energy bottlenecks are driving resources management strategies
Moving abroad to acquire key IP or resources is needed
Success is based on pre-ops and post-ops management
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Energy consumption in China is directly correlated to GDP growth
China has key assets to implement smart and successful energy policies
3. Presentation
• Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy
• Energy issues represent a key challenge for the future
• Leads for possible solutions and options
Page 3
4. China is likely to account for one third of the expected energy
growth in the next 20 years
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Global Energy Consumption
Source : Total, Shell
Comments :
• Primary energy demand 2030 vs
2010: +33%, CAGR 1.4%
• 90% of the global growth from non-
OECD countries
− China 33%
− India 26%
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
(in EJ / Year)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
EJ/Year
USA - Canada Europe China India Latin America MEA Others IMB
5. But China GDP has been steadily decelerating in the last 4
years
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60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source : World Bank GDP GDP growth
China maintains its 2013 GDP growth target at around 7.5%
to leave some leeway for economic restructuring…
6. China energy needs will continue to grow as China
economy develops
China installed electricity needs
forecast scenarios
CAGR : 10,6% / year
CAGR : 4,5% / year
(source : State Grid)
622 713 790 874 930
1450
2000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030
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Source : China statistical yearbook, UPS Monitor, NEB, EPRI, State Grid
CAGR : 3,3% / year
(source : NEB)
7. Presentation
• Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy
• Energy issues represent a key challenge for the future
• Leads for possible solutions and options
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8. Energy strategic planning including moving abroad is
mainly based on scenarios methodology
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Environmental
Protection
Energy
Security
Energy policies in the long term rely on complex optimizations of sometimes
contradictory results in the short term
Economic
Prosperity
Scenario 1
Scenario 3 Scenario 2
Energy scenario strategy
Three key driving forces :
• Energy security
• Environmental protection
• Economic prosperity
Typical explored scenarios :
• Watch and wait
• Shared urgency
• Leaders and laggards
9. Managing a large portfolio of strategic ressources worldwide
means to handle a great diversity of risks to optimize returns
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Energy investment strategy
Return :
• Hurdle rate
• Objective
• Complex play
Risk :
• Typology
• Mini-Max
• Volatility
Return
Risk
Hurdle rate
Maxi
10. Even smart technological carbon neutral choice do bear
unexpected catastrophic cost at times
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USA 108
Canada 18
Mexico 2
France 59
UK 19
Brazil 2
Germany 17
Other EU 70
Pakistan 2
Iran 2
Argentina 2 South Africa 2
Japan 55
Russia 32
South Korea 21
India 20
China 13
Global power mix
(electricity prod.
est.) :
Coal 40.9%
Gas 21.3%
Hydro 15.9%
Nuclear 13.5%
Oil 5.5%
Others 2.9%
The total cost of the 1986 Chernobyl (Belarus) accident is estimated
USD 235 billion of economic damage (UNDP)
The cost of the 2011 Fukushima (Japan) accident is estimated USD
250 billion of economic damage (Japan Center for Economic Research)
11. Presentation
• Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy
• Energy issues represent a key challenge for the future
• Leads for possible solutions and options
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12. Leadership and risk management excellence are high
yield assets to succeed in external growth
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External growth
Leadership Risk Management
– Systematic approach
– Research and know your
targets
– First call status
– Get culture settings right
– Practical approach
– Adaptability and
determination
– Momentum, timing
– Post acquisition skills
Target A
Target C
Acquirer Target B
13. We favor integrated M&A approach with emphasis on both
strategy and finance decision criteria for maximum impact
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Abroad
Strategy
Integra
-tion
Business
Impact
M&A
In China
We emphasize multicultural
strategic finance as our distinctive
footprint, meaning we integrate
M&A, culture and strategy
We serve industry leaders on
impact M&A and also advise on
preparation and integration to
optimize success
• We rely on an international network in China, in Europe and beyond
• Most of our customers are Fortune 500, dealing with complex growth issues
14. Presentation
• Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy
• Energy issues represent a key challenge for the future
• Leads for possible solutions and options
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15. So far China have invested over USD 780 billion abroad with
energy and metal accounting for USD 500 billion (64%)
Key regions for investment :
• USA : n°1 but atypical portfolio,
including $ 20 Bn in FIG and $
16 Bn in energy
• Australia : energy $ 24.5 Bn,
minerals $ 35 Bn
• Canada : energy $ 34.5 Bn,
minerals $ 3.3 Bn
• Dominant regions :
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− MEA, by far
− South America
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Energy
Metals
Tranportation
Financial Inst.
Real estate
Agriculture
Technology
Others
USD, Bn
Energy and metals account for 62% :
• Energy : USD 370 billion (47.4%)
• Metals : USD 115 billion (14.7%)
Source : Heritage Foundation
16. 2
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
Top resources China largest deals in 2013 investors 2008-2013
Bn
USD, 1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
Minerals Queensland
Curtis LNG
project
Brow se
LNG project
Talison
Lithium
Alumina Focus
30
25
20
15
10
5
28.6
China accounted for ~42% of all foreign acquisitions in Australia in 2013
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Country Deal Case : Australia
0
China Canada Japan USA UK
Source : The Australian
17. Deal background Deal story line
Tianqi swiftly moved with a better but finally creative offer to get the deal
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“Strategic“ Case : Tianqi Ind. (China) – Talison (Australia)
• Tianqi was in competition with Rockwood
Holdings, which made a lower offer at C$ 724
million. Tianqi’s offer was then prefered
• In March 2013, Tianqi got the Australian Fed
nod for C$ 848 million
• Tianqi started to own 19,9% of the capital and
clearance to later acquired the remaining 80%
• In December 2013, Tianqi and Rockwood
announced a 51/49 joint venture for the
acquisition of Talison
• Talison Lithium is a 25 years old mining
company and producer of lithium, producing
350,000 t of lithium products every year
• The company is listed on the TSX (Canada) and
has two key mining sites in Australia and Chile
18. Next steps
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Focus full energy on best opportunities
• A well prepared deal maximizes success
chances (risk / return / integration)
• A trusted and expert M&A team makes a
difference on the field
• A swift execution significantly enhance the deal
profile
• The integration investment management team
needs to be quickly empowered