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Deloitte on Africa
Resource-seeker or
market-seeker?

Are you a resource-seeker or a market-seeker?
Two typologies and their implications for your
Africa strategy…
Africa is enjoying tremendous growth and is,
currently and into the foreseeable future, the
preferred investment destination for investors.
A number of factors bode well for Africa as an
investment destination: increased stability, reforms
in terms of investment climate, a critical mass
of consumers, a growing young population and
burgeoning middle class, large deposits of minerals,
arable land for agriculture, and a significant
infrastructure deficit. While the opportunities are
clear, what is less clear for many is firstly, how to
enter and secondly, how to manage the lifecycle of
their investments in their chosen African markets.

Is there a formula? And, does one
size fit all? No, there is no
formula. And no, one size doesn’t
fit all. It all depends – are you a
resource-seeker or a
market-seeker?

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) theories suggest that
companies fall into two broad categories: resourceseeking and market-seeking. Resource-seeking firms
have different characteristics from market-seeking
firms, and these differences, in turn, have an imapct
on the market entry mode, the management of
the investment during its lifecycle and even exit.
This paper does not seek to provide definitive
answers as to how companies should access and
manage Africa opportunities but rather recognises
and leverages the value of typologies. A typology
is a useful and pragmatic tool for categorising and
understanding the approach to be followed by
organisations with similar traits and motivations.
Resource-seekers are those investors looking to
establish access to raw materials or other input factors
while market-seeking investments are geared towards
serving the host market and would typically include
retail – both food and clothing, Technology, Mobile
and Telecommunications (TMT), entertainment and
financial services. Also, in this category, by extension,
would be construction firms that would typically follow
the retailers in order to provide the necessary retail
infrastructure. There is currently a hive of activity on
the continent, with many construction firms building
mixed-use developments and retail malls. Resourceseekers would typically be mining houses and Oil &
Gas players accessing African markets for commodity
exploration and extraction purposes. Below are some
key traits – classified as differences and similarities
between resource-seekers and market-seekers.
Differences
Market-seeker traits
•	Consumer goods and services focused
•	Volume and market size are pivotal to their
decision-making process. Numbers drive sales
and induce economies of scale. On this basis,
regional integration is critical for market-seekers.
•	Unlimited choice in terms of choice of markets
to participate in. Market-seekers have a broader
universe of options. As a starting point, any country
is a potential market until it is qualified further.
•	Vested and strong interest in political stability.
Political stability strongly linked to perceptions of risk.
•	Presence in market is a function of how
well the company interfaces with the
customer base and competition.
Resource-seeker traits
•	Commodities/natural resources focused
•	Market size and regional integration
are not key considerations.
•	Limited choice in terms of markets. Resourceseekers can only consider countries with resources.
•	Resource-seekers are known to operate
in unstable environments.
•	Presence in market is a function of a
mine’s life and mineral availability.

2 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3

Similarities
•	Both have a vested interest in infrastructure but
for different reasons. Market-seekers require
infrastructure to move products from the port
of entry and distribute in-country. Because little
beneficiation is taking place on the continent,
resource-seekers typically need infrastructure
only to move commodities from the mines to the
ports to be shipped to their export markets.
•	Both have a vested interest in
security of energy supply.
Deloitte lifecycle of
investment into Africa
Opportunity Assessment

No
Rationale for
expansion

Target
countries

Country
Assessment

Regulatory
Environment

Local
partnerships

Entry?
Yes

Entry Strategy

No
Managing
Stakeholders

Human
Capital

Production/
Business
Model

Viable?
Yes

Establish Local Operations

No
Pricing

Growth

Distribution

Exit?
Yes
Exit Strategy

The Deloitte lifecycle of investment into Africa shows that the entry into management of
investments in any African market are an iterative process with a series of decision-making points.
Using this framework, resource-seekers and market-seekers will be compared and contrasted
in order to understand what their considerations are at different decision points.

Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 3
Key considerations and
implications for resource-seekers
and market-seekers
Opportunity assessment
Rationale for expansion
The expansion of resource-seekers and marketseekers into Africa is motivated by different drivers.
For market seekers, Africa is appealing from the
perspective that there is a critical mass of consumers
and market size. Africa currently has a population
of 1 billion people, which is set to increase to
2 billion by 2050. Furthermore, Africa has a rising
middle class meaning that consumers increasingly
have greater income to spend. A disproportionately
young population guarantees a consumer base
for years to come. Moreover, with most of the
Western world facing economic challenges,
Africa presents significant growth. It is anticipated
that Africa’s current middle class of 313 million
consumers will grow to 1.1 billion by 2060.
On the contrary, for resource-seekers, Africa’s
attractiveness lies in the natural resources she is
endowed with and most of which are still untapped.
Africa produces more than 60 metal and mineral
products and is a major producer of several of
the world’s most important minerals and metals,
including gold, diamonds, uranium, manganese,
chromium, nickel, bauxite and cobalt. Africa
hosts about 30% of the planet’s mineral reserves,
including 40% of gold, 60% cobalt and 90% of the
world’s platinum group metal (PGM) reserves.
Target countries
The process by which market-seekers and resourceseekers filter and select countries to enter differs
greatly. Market-seekers inherently have a broader
universe of options. As a starting point, any
African country with a population and consumers
is a potential market until it is further qualified
in terms of the companies’ business rules and
preferences. Resource-seekers, on the other hand,
can only consider those countries with specified
resources that are aligned to their product focus.
As market-seekers seek profit via volume and
economies of scale, country and market size are

4 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3

important considerations and, by implication, regional
integration. A regional approach compensates for
those countries with small populations. The
East African Community (EAC), the most
progressive regional bloc on the continent,
is promising free movement of goods and
people when it fully goes online in 2014.
In light of this development, the approach
increasingly being adopted by market-seekers is
to manufacture in one of the EAC countries and
distribute across the region. With this approach,
small countries like Rwanda and Burundi become
attractive but only in this context of a regional
approach. Rwanda’s trade with other EAC states
rose considerably in the period between January
and August 2012 as a result of the implementation
of the regional common market protocol, which
facilitates the free movement of goods and services
across the region. Rwanda’s exports within the EAC
increased to US$75.7 million in this period up from
US$50.7 million in the same period last year.
On the other hand, resource-seekers have limited
options targeting only those African countries
whose commodities’ profiles are aligned with
their product focus. Traditionally, resource-seekers
have pursued markets such as Nigeria, Angola and
Equatorial Guinea for their oil, the DRC, South Africa,
Botswana, Namibia and Angola for their diamonds,
and Zambia for its copper. Guinea, alone, holds
the world’s largest estimated reserves of bauxite at
7.2 billion tons. However, in light of recent oil and
gas discoveries in Ghana and along the east coast
of Africa and coal in Mozambique, countries such
as Mozambique, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania are
fast becoming central in resource-seekers’ expansion
strategies – this was not the case, even three years
ago. So great has been the interest that Uganda,
for example, intends to offer mineral prospecting
and production licences on competitive bidding
rather than on first-come-first-served basis following
a surge of investor interest. The point here is that
resource-seekers’ choices are defined by nature.
TUNISIA

Growth of sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 5.3% in
2012. It is anticipated to pick up to 5.6% in 2013.

MOROCCO

LIBYA

EGYPT

W

ES

TE

RN

SA

HA

RA

ALGERIA

MAURITANIA
CAPE
VERDE
ISLANDS

MALI

NIGER
SUDAN

BURKINA
FASO

GUINEA

SIERRA LEONE

IVORY
COAST

LIBERIA

GHANA

DJIBOUTI
NIGERIA
CENTRAL
AFRICAN
REPUBLIC

CAMEROON
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
GABON

C
BRA ONG
ZAV O
ILLE

GUINEA-BISSAU

ERITREA

CHAD
TOGO
BENIN

GAMBIA

SENEGAL

ETHIOPIA

SOUTH
SUDAN

DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC OF
CONGO

SOMALIA

KENYA

UGANDA
RWANDA

BURUNDI
CABINDA

ZAMBIA

UE

IQ

50 - 200

ZIMBABWE

20 - 50

BOTSWANA
SWAZILAND

10 - 20

1 - 10

M

MAD
AG

NAMIBIA

B
AM
OZ

ASCA
R

ANGOLA

MALAWI

Projected Population
for 2012 (millions)

TANZANIA

LESOTHO
SOUTH
AFRICA

0-1

Source: World Bank

Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 5
Country assessment
Other key considerations for determining the viability
of entering a new market include the ease of doing
business, political and social issues, country and
business risks, language and culture barriers, legal,
tax and compliance requirements, geographical
proximity and logistics and existing infrastructure.
Indeed, key considerations for resource-seekers
are similar to those of market-seekers although
one could conclude, on the basis of historical
trends, that country or business risk is not as big
a consideration for resource-seekers as it is for
market-seekers. In fact, the inverse is largely true.
Most African countries with commodities have
generally experienced conflict, and this has not
deterred resource-seeking investments into
territories such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. A
plausible explanation for this is that resourceseekers only extract minerals in-country for
production elsewhere while market-seekers, by
definition, service the host country and are therefore
entrenched in the local dynamics. GDP per capita
and consumer spending are thus important factors
for consideration for market-seekers, as these
factors have a bearing product/service demand. On
the contrary, resource-seekers do not follow local
dynamics but rather commodity prices on various
international indices and other global dynamics.

6 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3

Regulatory environment
The African regulatory environment is challenging
for a number of reasons for both market-seekers and
resource-seekers. Firstly, there is sometimes the lack
of policy clarity, which then heightens perceptions of
risk. Second is the lack of policy continuity. Changes
in government or even just cabinet reshuffles within
the same government sometimes lead to changes
in policy. This can be particularly disruptive in
especially the commodities and extractive industry
where investments in oil and gas and mining require
a long-term outlook. Third is the lack of policy
consistency. If, for example, a country has chosen
to make it easy to do business, this should reflect
in the time to register a new business, labour laws,
the opening of a bank account, obtaining work
and construction permits and so forth and requires
a concerted effort across all government agencies.
Policy consistency will come through in how the policy
is executed, and this ultimately manifests through
the investor’s experiences. There is sometimes a
disconnect between the policy on paper and how it is
experienced. Nonetheless, African countries continue
to visibly improve their investment climates, indicating
that policy is being implemented appropriately.
World Bank statistics show that Morocco, Cape
Verde, Sierra Leone and Burundi were among the ten
economies in the world that most improved the ease
of doing business in 2012, while Mauritius ranked
first among African countries at No. 23 globally,
followed by South Africa at No. 35, with Chile at
No. 39, Rwanda at No. 45 and Tunisia at No. 46.
Local partnerships
There are increasingly calls on the continent by African
governments for the participation of local players in
foreign market-seekers and resource-seekers’ deals.
These calls are motivated by the need to avoid, in
the case of extractive deals, the “recourse curse”.
Core to this is the need to ensure that the benefits
emanating from investment activity trickle down to
local businesses and spread in communities. These
policies, variously referred to as “Local Content” in
Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda, “BEE” in South Africa
and “Indigenisation” in Zimbabwe are sometimes
viewed by investors as an unnecessary inconvenience.
However, at the Deloitte 2012 Africa Risk Conference;
focused on mitigating the risk of doing business on

the continent, investors implored their peers to change
their mindsets and view these sets of legislation
as an opportunity to bring on board local partners
and tap into those partners’ institutional memories,
savoir-faire and local networks. The importance of
on-the-ground knowledge was emphasised as critical.
Forging local partnerships in Africa is a practical and
necessary thing to do whether or not legislation
necessitates it. A strategy for successful partnering
must not be an after-thought; rather, it must be
central to the broader country strategy. The viability of
the opportunity should hinge on and be assessed on
the basis of having identified a sound partner. That,
in turn, rests on a rigorous due diligence process.

Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 7
Entry strategy
Managing stakeholders
While market-seekers need to manage local
stakeholders and relationships, resource-seekers
in Africa have a greater need to do so given that
mineral extraction is a highly emotive issue on the
world’s poorest continent. Moreover, given that
minerals are exported elsewhere for beneficiation,
mineral seekers are particularly susceptible to
perceptions of exploitation. There is a renewed drive
to ensure that mineral resources drive the economic
development of the continent and, in light of this,
there will be a greater need, going forward, for
extractive companies to interact with and manage
governments and communities as key stakeholders.

Human capital
Africa’s population is disproportionally young, almost
200 million people are between the ages of 15 and
24, and by 2030 nearly one in four young people
in the world will be African. Furthermore, there
is a skills deficit on the continent. It is, therefore,
important that both market-seekers and resourceseekers have a strategy in place for how they will
develop local talent. It is not just the responsibility
of governments to capacitate their people, but
companies also have a social responsibility to assist
with this massive challenge on the continent. In
fact, it should not be a social responsibility – it
should be core to the firm’s country strategy, as it
determines sustainability and success in that market.

According to the Africa Progress Panel, “The
ultimate goal is a transparent and accountable
sector generating financial firepower that will
enable countries that have previously lagged
behind to accelerate rapidly toward the Millennium
Development Goals.” Resource-seekers therefore
need a more proactive and innovate multi-pronged
stakeholder strategy that speaks to community
issues while continuously engaging and complying
with government. To illustrate how important this is
becoming, in August 2012 there were calls for the
Mozambique government to renegotiate all contracts
signed, followed by the Tanzanian government’s
calls for an audit of 26 Oil & Gas contracts to review
production agreements with firms to ensure the
country got a “fairer share” in September 2012.

Deloitte has for years been running a Graduate
Academy which gives university graduates exposure
to the world of work and better prepares them for
their careers in response to the observation that
graduates are not necessarily work-ready. Companies
need to scale up such an internship programme
when operating on the continent. While marketseekers and resource-seekers may initially fill certain
vacancies with expatriates, it is important that there
are skills-transfer and up-skilling programmes in
place. Given the calls to ensure that FDI benefits
the local citizenry, it is plausible that companies will
become increasingly under pressure to demonstrate
their intentions and plans to empower their local
workforce. Also, there is a “new class of professionals”
of young Africans in the diaspora, who are global in
their worldview and outlook, having worked on Wall
Street and in the City in London and are returning
to Africa to settle. Companies with African growth
aspirations need to tap into this human capital pool.

8 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3
Production/business model
With market-seekers, initial entry into various African
markets is typically via a distribution model with a
sales force in-country in order to minimise the risk
of full exposure to the market. As a result, marketseekers can gauge the market before entering fully.
Having stated this, it is interesting to note that
market-seekers, even where they have determined
that there is a viable market, continue with a
distribution model. Most multinational players on
the continent typically manufacture in a few hubs on
the continent and distribute to their various African
markets. Sometimes manufacturing does not even
take place on the continent but rather from Turkey and
China where there is a cost comparative advantage.
Low cost of production and a large customer base
remain the two key goals for market-seekers.
Market seekers are, however, not without their
challenges and risks even with a “low risk” distribution
model. Their challenge lies in moving consumer goods
between borders on a regular basis: weekly and even
daily where perishable goods are concerned. Lengthy
delays at African borders remain a key challenge to
doing business across borders. Also, given the need
to constantly manage supply cycles and replenish
shelves, this becomes a challenge that is faced on a
regular basis. In responding to this challenge, there
is a discernible trend towards in-country sourcing.
A reputable food retailer in South Africa, rather than
freighting in supplies on a regular basis has changed
its operating model to one that incorporates local
players into its supply chain on the condition that they
adhere to strict quality standards. This ensures that
the local community benefits from the investment
but also ensures that prices for consumers are
not unnecessarily exhorbitant by having to freight
products and pay customs duties. It would appear to
be a win-win and sustainable situation for all parties
concerned: the investor, the local company, the
customer and the government in their empowerment
objectives. It makes business sense all round!
Resource-seekers, on the other hand, tend to only
extract on the continent and export commodities for
manufacturing elsewhere. Many governments are
developing strategies for domestic minerals so that
the growth being realised from minerals is shared

and inclusive. Mineral beneficiation is a priority for
governments of resource-rich countries that would like
to leverage the potential of mineral beneficiation to
create local employment and drive economic growth.
The aim of a beneficiation strategy is to provide a
framework to convert the country’s comparative
advantage it has inherited, in the form of its mineral
wealth, into a national competitive advantage.

Resource-seekers, however, do not like market-seekers,
have the option of gauging the markets first, as they
cannot avoid being physically present, from the start,
in the local environment. They necessarily have to be
in situ in all their chosen markets in order to extract
resources. Thus, resource-seeking is capital intensive
from the start, with the attendant risks arising from
being heavily invested in particular countries. While,
admittedly, entry into mining by the larger mining
houses would usually be preceded by the junior mining
houses that typically absorb some of the upfront risks
and costs, the financial outlay still remains significant.

Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 9
Establish local operations
Pricing
The market for market-seekers consists of Africans in
Africa. While there is a growing middle class, most
Africans remain at the bottom of the pyramid, and
there is a need to tailor products to meet local demand
and preferences at the appropriate price levels. With
resource-seekers, there is limited scope to manipulate
market demand. Demand for commodities is driven
by a range of macro-economic environmental factors.
Growth
Market-seekers and resource-seekers will pursue
growth differently. For market-seekers, a presence
in the chosen markets and growth is a function of
growing the customer base and/or further penetrating
the existing customer base through product/service
innovations and adaptations to local tastes so as to
have a bigger share of the customer’s wallet. Thus, as
the market grows, economies of scale can be achieved
and profits enhanced. Adaptation requires research
that is not only country-specific but also spending
“a day in the life of….” consumers to understand
how they view, interact with and use various
branded products, what these brands represent in
their lives and what the levers are for further market
penetration. This implies that local knowledge and
adaptation are two key differentiators – while of
course still balancing this with costs and scale.
With mining and Oil & Gas, presence in the market
is primarily a function of the life of the mine or
oil bed. Growth is therefore necessarily achieved
by acquiring new mines or oilfields as resources
deplete. Economies of scales, despite a portfolio of
commodity investments, can nonetheless still be
achieved through, for example, shared services. The
Deloitte Mining Shared Services business can help
resource-seekers operating on the continent realise
significant cost savings. It is structured to achieve
economies of scale, ensure cost efficiencies and meet
delivery standards – while addressing local, onsite
needs. Clients have a choice in terms of outsourcing,
co-sourcing or retention of back-office activities based
on the business case, business risks and/or imperatives.

10 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3

Distribution
The African continent faces a significant infrastructure
deficit. For resource-seekers wanting to move
commodity products from the mines to the ports
for export purposes, this used to be viewed as
a constraint to doing business on the continent.
However, there has been a shift in mind-set, and
there is a clear trend of commodity players making
investments into infrastructure for their own use. For
investors moving onto the continent, it is important
to bear in mind that such investments into adjacent
sectors may be necessary, and the investment case
needs to take such non-core costs into account.
Conversely, market-seekers are concerned with
achieving as much coverage in their chosen markets
and so, in-country infrastructure is important to them.
Also important are channels of distribution that do
not require brick-and-mortar infrastructure and add
to costs in low-margin markets. This has been evident
in the banking space where mobile technology and
banking systems are fusing to bring banking to the
masses while reducing the cost-to-serve. Current
applications of mobile telephony in banking include
innovations such as M-Pesa, the mobile money transfer
service and M-Kesho, the micro-lending mobile
platform in Kenya. In yet another example from Kenya,
farmers interact proactively with commodity exchanges
and track prices with their phones so that they can
make informed decisions about the right time to take
their produce to market. In the future, we should
expect to see more examples in other areas such as
health, retailing, insurance and education. Africa has
leapfrogged in this aspect, and new entrants need
to think outside the box–beyond brick and mortar.
Exit strategy
Should the need arise to exit, in the event of conflict,
for example, market-seekers with only a manufacturing
and distribution model have a relatively quick exit.
Resource-seekers are more at risk, given the amount

of capital invested. Also, given that negotiations
for mining rights would have been negotiated by
a previous government, in countries where there
are poor institutional frameworks and rule of law, it
may be difficult to ensure continuity of operations.

Summary table
Decision-making
stage

Market-seekers

Resource seekers

Rationale for Africa
expansion

•	Market-driven

•	Resource-driven

Target countries

•	Unlimited scope. Small countries’ or
small markets can be compensated
for by regional integration

•	Limited scope. Only those countries
with certain commodities’

Country assessment

•	Ease of doing business
•	Political and social issues
•	Country and business risks
•	Language and culture barriers
•	Legal, regulatory, tax and
compliance requirements
•	Geographical proximity and logistics
•	Existing infrastructure

• Similar to market-seekers, but
resource-seekers are sensitive
to political instability

Regulatory environment

•	Challenge of lack of policy clarity,
lack of policy continuity and
lack of policy consistency

•	Similar to market-seekers

Local partners

•	Great need for local partners

•	Similar to market-seekers

Managing stakeholders

• Need to manage relevant
stakeholders

•	Greater need than market seekers
– for a broader and more proactive
stakeholder engagement strategy
that includes communities and
governments, given the sensitivity
of extracting resources

Due diligence

•	Rigourous due diligence necessary

•	Similar to market seekers

Human Capital

•	Need a plan for skills transfer
and up-skilling on the job
•	Need a programme for
assisting graduates get ready
for the world of work

•	Need a plan for skills transfer
and up-skilling on the job
•	Need a programme for
assisting graduates get ready
for the world of work

Business model

•	Distribution model initially
therefore limited risk
•	Challenge of moving
goods across borders

•	In situ from the start therefore
greater exposure
•	Challenges of moving goods
from the mines to the ports

Opportunity assessment

Entry strategy

Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 11
Decision-making
stage

Market-seekers

Resource seekers

Production

•	On the continent in selected
hubs or in countries with cost
comparative advantage

•	Beneficiation predominantly does not
take place on the African continent

Pricing

•	Pricing geared to meet GDP/capita
and socio-economics of local market

•	Pricing determined by
global dynamics and global
commodity indices

Growth

•	Presence in the chosen markets
and growth is a function of
growing the customer base
and/or further penetrating the
existing customer base
•	Product/service innovations
and adaptations to local tastes
so as to have a bigger share
of the customer’s wallet
•	Economies of scale

•	Growth is achieved by acquiring new
mines or oilfields as resources deplete
•	Standardisation and process
efficiency are key and innovations
such as shared services in
mining can help achieve this

Distribution

•	Mobile telephony applications
key to distributing at low cost-toserve to a wide customer base
•	Physical infrastructure still
core for product delivery

•	May need to invest in infrastructure
to move product from mine to ports

•	By virtue of distribution model,
low-risk exit strategy

•	By virtue of high upfront investments
and sunk costs, high-risk exit strategy

Establish local operations

Exit
Exit strategy

12 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3
Conclusion:
We draw the following conclusions:
•	Market-seekers differ from resource-seekers
in how they do business in Africa.
•	Doing business in Africa as a market-seeker does
not differ significantly from doing business in other
emerging/frontier markets as a market-seeker.
•	Doing business in Africa as a resource-seeker
is similar to doing business in other emerging/
frontier markets as a resource-seeker.
From a process perspective, there is an equal need for
thoroughness in terms of market entry: due diligence,
country assessment, competitor analysis and so forth.
To illustrate, a market-seeker looking to enter the
1 billion Indian market would need to understand
the legislative and market differences in India’s
26 regions before deciding which provinces
to enter and how to sequence the entry in the
same way they would approach Africa’s 1 billion
market spread over 54 countries before selecting
countries to enter. Admittedly, the number of
countries in Africa makes the task seemingly
more daunting, but the process is the same.

In our view, the real challenge in accessing market
or resource opportunities in Africa relates to
understanding the softer issues: understanding the
local dynamics, the people, their mentality, their work
ethic, the culture, how to get things done, who to
speak to and so forth. And this EQ, we contend, is best
acquired through a local partner who, of course, must
be thoroughly vetted first. In addition to EQ, there
is the challenge of a lack of physical infrastructure,
but with mind-sets shifting, this is not even deterring
investors. And we are witnessing resource-seekers
building their own railroads, roads and ports. Given
Africa’s lucrative returns, this is small change...

Resource-seeker or marketseeker: investment opportunities
abound in Africa.

Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 13
Contacts

Anushuya Gounden
Partner: Head of Africa Desk
E-mail: angounden@deloitte.co.za

Taki Nkhumeleni
Manager: Africa Desk
E-mail: tnkhumeleni@deloitte.co.za

For any Africa related information, please contact zaafricadesk@deloitte.co.za

References
•	 Annan K, Momentum Rises to Lift Africa’s Resource Curse, 14 September 2012, New York Times Op-Ed
•	 Biryabarema E, Uganda plans competitive bidding for mining licences, 1 October 2012, Reuters
•	 Kabeera E, Rwanda Sees Growth in Regional Trade, 2 October 2012, The New Times
•	 Kamndaya, S Tanzania: Planned review of oil deals rocks investors, 19 September 2012
•	 Mozambique: Former PM Calls for Renegotiation of Contracts All Africa.com, 27 August 2012

Acknowledgment for contribution by Dr Jacqueline Chimhanzi, alumnus of Deloitte

14 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3
Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 15
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Investing in Africa

  • 1. Deloitte on Africa Resource-seeker or market-seeker? Are you a resource-seeker or a market-seeker? Two typologies and their implications for your Africa strategy… Africa is enjoying tremendous growth and is, currently and into the foreseeable future, the preferred investment destination for investors. A number of factors bode well for Africa as an investment destination: increased stability, reforms in terms of investment climate, a critical mass of consumers, a growing young population and burgeoning middle class, large deposits of minerals, arable land for agriculture, and a significant infrastructure deficit. While the opportunities are clear, what is less clear for many is firstly, how to enter and secondly, how to manage the lifecycle of their investments in their chosen African markets. Is there a formula? And, does one size fit all? No, there is no formula. And no, one size doesn’t fit all. It all depends – are you a resource-seeker or a market-seeker? Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) theories suggest that companies fall into two broad categories: resourceseeking and market-seeking. Resource-seeking firms have different characteristics from market-seeking firms, and these differences, in turn, have an imapct on the market entry mode, the management of the investment during its lifecycle and even exit. This paper does not seek to provide definitive answers as to how companies should access and manage Africa opportunities but rather recognises and leverages the value of typologies. A typology is a useful and pragmatic tool for categorising and understanding the approach to be followed by organisations with similar traits and motivations. Resource-seekers are those investors looking to establish access to raw materials or other input factors while market-seeking investments are geared towards serving the host market and would typically include retail – both food and clothing, Technology, Mobile and Telecommunications (TMT), entertainment and financial services. Also, in this category, by extension, would be construction firms that would typically follow the retailers in order to provide the necessary retail infrastructure. There is currently a hive of activity on the continent, with many construction firms building mixed-use developments and retail malls. Resourceseekers would typically be mining houses and Oil & Gas players accessing African markets for commodity exploration and extraction purposes. Below are some key traits – classified as differences and similarities between resource-seekers and market-seekers.
  • 2. Differences Market-seeker traits • Consumer goods and services focused • Volume and market size are pivotal to their decision-making process. Numbers drive sales and induce economies of scale. On this basis, regional integration is critical for market-seekers. • Unlimited choice in terms of choice of markets to participate in. Market-seekers have a broader universe of options. As a starting point, any country is a potential market until it is qualified further. • Vested and strong interest in political stability. Political stability strongly linked to perceptions of risk. • Presence in market is a function of how well the company interfaces with the customer base and competition. Resource-seeker traits • Commodities/natural resources focused • Market size and regional integration are not key considerations. • Limited choice in terms of markets. Resourceseekers can only consider countries with resources. • Resource-seekers are known to operate in unstable environments. • Presence in market is a function of a mine’s life and mineral availability. 2 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 Similarities • Both have a vested interest in infrastructure but for different reasons. Market-seekers require infrastructure to move products from the port of entry and distribute in-country. Because little beneficiation is taking place on the continent, resource-seekers typically need infrastructure only to move commodities from the mines to the ports to be shipped to their export markets. • Both have a vested interest in security of energy supply.
  • 3. Deloitte lifecycle of investment into Africa Opportunity Assessment No Rationale for expansion Target countries Country Assessment Regulatory Environment Local partnerships Entry? Yes Entry Strategy No Managing Stakeholders Human Capital Production/ Business Model Viable? Yes Establish Local Operations No Pricing Growth Distribution Exit? Yes Exit Strategy The Deloitte lifecycle of investment into Africa shows that the entry into management of investments in any African market are an iterative process with a series of decision-making points. Using this framework, resource-seekers and market-seekers will be compared and contrasted in order to understand what their considerations are at different decision points. Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 3
  • 4. Key considerations and implications for resource-seekers and market-seekers Opportunity assessment Rationale for expansion The expansion of resource-seekers and marketseekers into Africa is motivated by different drivers. For market seekers, Africa is appealing from the perspective that there is a critical mass of consumers and market size. Africa currently has a population of 1 billion people, which is set to increase to 2 billion by 2050. Furthermore, Africa has a rising middle class meaning that consumers increasingly have greater income to spend. A disproportionately young population guarantees a consumer base for years to come. Moreover, with most of the Western world facing economic challenges, Africa presents significant growth. It is anticipated that Africa’s current middle class of 313 million consumers will grow to 1.1 billion by 2060. On the contrary, for resource-seekers, Africa’s attractiveness lies in the natural resources she is endowed with and most of which are still untapped. Africa produces more than 60 metal and mineral products and is a major producer of several of the world’s most important minerals and metals, including gold, diamonds, uranium, manganese, chromium, nickel, bauxite and cobalt. Africa hosts about 30% of the planet’s mineral reserves, including 40% of gold, 60% cobalt and 90% of the world’s platinum group metal (PGM) reserves. Target countries The process by which market-seekers and resourceseekers filter and select countries to enter differs greatly. Market-seekers inherently have a broader universe of options. As a starting point, any African country with a population and consumers is a potential market until it is further qualified in terms of the companies’ business rules and preferences. Resource-seekers, on the other hand, can only consider those countries with specified resources that are aligned to their product focus. As market-seekers seek profit via volume and economies of scale, country and market size are 4 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 important considerations and, by implication, regional integration. A regional approach compensates for those countries with small populations. The East African Community (EAC), the most progressive regional bloc on the continent, is promising free movement of goods and people when it fully goes online in 2014. In light of this development, the approach increasingly being adopted by market-seekers is to manufacture in one of the EAC countries and distribute across the region. With this approach, small countries like Rwanda and Burundi become attractive but only in this context of a regional approach. Rwanda’s trade with other EAC states rose considerably in the period between January and August 2012 as a result of the implementation of the regional common market protocol, which facilitates the free movement of goods and services across the region. Rwanda’s exports within the EAC increased to US$75.7 million in this period up from US$50.7 million in the same period last year. On the other hand, resource-seekers have limited options targeting only those African countries whose commodities’ profiles are aligned with their product focus. Traditionally, resource-seekers have pursued markets such as Nigeria, Angola and Equatorial Guinea for their oil, the DRC, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Angola for their diamonds, and Zambia for its copper. Guinea, alone, holds the world’s largest estimated reserves of bauxite at 7.2 billion tons. However, in light of recent oil and gas discoveries in Ghana and along the east coast of Africa and coal in Mozambique, countries such as Mozambique, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania are fast becoming central in resource-seekers’ expansion strategies – this was not the case, even three years ago. So great has been the interest that Uganda, for example, intends to offer mineral prospecting and production licences on competitive bidding rather than on first-come-first-served basis following a surge of investor interest. The point here is that resource-seekers’ choices are defined by nature.
  • 5. TUNISIA Growth of sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 5.3% in 2012. It is anticipated to pick up to 5.6% in 2013. MOROCCO LIBYA EGYPT W ES TE RN SA HA RA ALGERIA MAURITANIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MALI NIGER SUDAN BURKINA FASO GUINEA SIERRA LEONE IVORY COAST LIBERIA GHANA DJIBOUTI NIGERIA CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC CAMEROON EQUATORIAL GUINEA GABON C BRA ONG ZAV O ILLE GUINEA-BISSAU ERITREA CHAD TOGO BENIN GAMBIA SENEGAL ETHIOPIA SOUTH SUDAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO SOMALIA KENYA UGANDA RWANDA BURUNDI CABINDA ZAMBIA UE IQ 50 - 200 ZIMBABWE 20 - 50 BOTSWANA SWAZILAND 10 - 20 1 - 10 M MAD AG NAMIBIA B AM OZ ASCA R ANGOLA MALAWI Projected Population for 2012 (millions) TANZANIA LESOTHO SOUTH AFRICA 0-1 Source: World Bank Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 5
  • 6. Country assessment Other key considerations for determining the viability of entering a new market include the ease of doing business, political and social issues, country and business risks, language and culture barriers, legal, tax and compliance requirements, geographical proximity and logistics and existing infrastructure. Indeed, key considerations for resource-seekers are similar to those of market-seekers although one could conclude, on the basis of historical trends, that country or business risk is not as big a consideration for resource-seekers as it is for market-seekers. In fact, the inverse is largely true. Most African countries with commodities have generally experienced conflict, and this has not deterred resource-seeking investments into territories such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. A plausible explanation for this is that resourceseekers only extract minerals in-country for production elsewhere while market-seekers, by definition, service the host country and are therefore entrenched in the local dynamics. GDP per capita and consumer spending are thus important factors for consideration for market-seekers, as these factors have a bearing product/service demand. On the contrary, resource-seekers do not follow local dynamics but rather commodity prices on various international indices and other global dynamics. 6 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 Regulatory environment The African regulatory environment is challenging for a number of reasons for both market-seekers and resource-seekers. Firstly, there is sometimes the lack of policy clarity, which then heightens perceptions of risk. Second is the lack of policy continuity. Changes in government or even just cabinet reshuffles within the same government sometimes lead to changes in policy. This can be particularly disruptive in especially the commodities and extractive industry where investments in oil and gas and mining require a long-term outlook. Third is the lack of policy consistency. If, for example, a country has chosen to make it easy to do business, this should reflect in the time to register a new business, labour laws, the opening of a bank account, obtaining work and construction permits and so forth and requires a concerted effort across all government agencies. Policy consistency will come through in how the policy is executed, and this ultimately manifests through the investor’s experiences. There is sometimes a disconnect between the policy on paper and how it is experienced. Nonetheless, African countries continue to visibly improve their investment climates, indicating that policy is being implemented appropriately. World Bank statistics show that Morocco, Cape Verde, Sierra Leone and Burundi were among the ten economies in the world that most improved the ease of doing business in 2012, while Mauritius ranked first among African countries at No. 23 globally, followed by South Africa at No. 35, with Chile at No. 39, Rwanda at No. 45 and Tunisia at No. 46.
  • 7. Local partnerships There are increasingly calls on the continent by African governments for the participation of local players in foreign market-seekers and resource-seekers’ deals. These calls are motivated by the need to avoid, in the case of extractive deals, the “recourse curse”. Core to this is the need to ensure that the benefits emanating from investment activity trickle down to local businesses and spread in communities. These policies, variously referred to as “Local Content” in Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda, “BEE” in South Africa and “Indigenisation” in Zimbabwe are sometimes viewed by investors as an unnecessary inconvenience. However, at the Deloitte 2012 Africa Risk Conference; focused on mitigating the risk of doing business on the continent, investors implored their peers to change their mindsets and view these sets of legislation as an opportunity to bring on board local partners and tap into those partners’ institutional memories, savoir-faire and local networks. The importance of on-the-ground knowledge was emphasised as critical. Forging local partnerships in Africa is a practical and necessary thing to do whether or not legislation necessitates it. A strategy for successful partnering must not be an after-thought; rather, it must be central to the broader country strategy. The viability of the opportunity should hinge on and be assessed on the basis of having identified a sound partner. That, in turn, rests on a rigorous due diligence process. Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 7
  • 8. Entry strategy Managing stakeholders While market-seekers need to manage local stakeholders and relationships, resource-seekers in Africa have a greater need to do so given that mineral extraction is a highly emotive issue on the world’s poorest continent. Moreover, given that minerals are exported elsewhere for beneficiation, mineral seekers are particularly susceptible to perceptions of exploitation. There is a renewed drive to ensure that mineral resources drive the economic development of the continent and, in light of this, there will be a greater need, going forward, for extractive companies to interact with and manage governments and communities as key stakeholders. Human capital Africa’s population is disproportionally young, almost 200 million people are between the ages of 15 and 24, and by 2030 nearly one in four young people in the world will be African. Furthermore, there is a skills deficit on the continent. It is, therefore, important that both market-seekers and resourceseekers have a strategy in place for how they will develop local talent. It is not just the responsibility of governments to capacitate their people, but companies also have a social responsibility to assist with this massive challenge on the continent. In fact, it should not be a social responsibility – it should be core to the firm’s country strategy, as it determines sustainability and success in that market. According to the Africa Progress Panel, “The ultimate goal is a transparent and accountable sector generating financial firepower that will enable countries that have previously lagged behind to accelerate rapidly toward the Millennium Development Goals.” Resource-seekers therefore need a more proactive and innovate multi-pronged stakeholder strategy that speaks to community issues while continuously engaging and complying with government. To illustrate how important this is becoming, in August 2012 there were calls for the Mozambique government to renegotiate all contracts signed, followed by the Tanzanian government’s calls for an audit of 26 Oil & Gas contracts to review production agreements with firms to ensure the country got a “fairer share” in September 2012. Deloitte has for years been running a Graduate Academy which gives university graduates exposure to the world of work and better prepares them for their careers in response to the observation that graduates are not necessarily work-ready. Companies need to scale up such an internship programme when operating on the continent. While marketseekers and resource-seekers may initially fill certain vacancies with expatriates, it is important that there are skills-transfer and up-skilling programmes in place. Given the calls to ensure that FDI benefits the local citizenry, it is plausible that companies will become increasingly under pressure to demonstrate their intentions and plans to empower their local workforce. Also, there is a “new class of professionals” of young Africans in the diaspora, who are global in their worldview and outlook, having worked on Wall Street and in the City in London and are returning to Africa to settle. Companies with African growth aspirations need to tap into this human capital pool. 8 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3
  • 9. Production/business model With market-seekers, initial entry into various African markets is typically via a distribution model with a sales force in-country in order to minimise the risk of full exposure to the market. As a result, marketseekers can gauge the market before entering fully. Having stated this, it is interesting to note that market-seekers, even where they have determined that there is a viable market, continue with a distribution model. Most multinational players on the continent typically manufacture in a few hubs on the continent and distribute to their various African markets. Sometimes manufacturing does not even take place on the continent but rather from Turkey and China where there is a cost comparative advantage. Low cost of production and a large customer base remain the two key goals for market-seekers. Market seekers are, however, not without their challenges and risks even with a “low risk” distribution model. Their challenge lies in moving consumer goods between borders on a regular basis: weekly and even daily where perishable goods are concerned. Lengthy delays at African borders remain a key challenge to doing business across borders. Also, given the need to constantly manage supply cycles and replenish shelves, this becomes a challenge that is faced on a regular basis. In responding to this challenge, there is a discernible trend towards in-country sourcing. A reputable food retailer in South Africa, rather than freighting in supplies on a regular basis has changed its operating model to one that incorporates local players into its supply chain on the condition that they adhere to strict quality standards. This ensures that the local community benefits from the investment but also ensures that prices for consumers are not unnecessarily exhorbitant by having to freight products and pay customs duties. It would appear to be a win-win and sustainable situation for all parties concerned: the investor, the local company, the customer and the government in their empowerment objectives. It makes business sense all round! Resource-seekers, on the other hand, tend to only extract on the continent and export commodities for manufacturing elsewhere. Many governments are developing strategies for domestic minerals so that the growth being realised from minerals is shared and inclusive. Mineral beneficiation is a priority for governments of resource-rich countries that would like to leverage the potential of mineral beneficiation to create local employment and drive economic growth. The aim of a beneficiation strategy is to provide a framework to convert the country’s comparative advantage it has inherited, in the form of its mineral wealth, into a national competitive advantage. Resource-seekers, however, do not like market-seekers, have the option of gauging the markets first, as they cannot avoid being physically present, from the start, in the local environment. They necessarily have to be in situ in all their chosen markets in order to extract resources. Thus, resource-seeking is capital intensive from the start, with the attendant risks arising from being heavily invested in particular countries. While, admittedly, entry into mining by the larger mining houses would usually be preceded by the junior mining houses that typically absorb some of the upfront risks and costs, the financial outlay still remains significant. Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 9
  • 10. Establish local operations Pricing The market for market-seekers consists of Africans in Africa. While there is a growing middle class, most Africans remain at the bottom of the pyramid, and there is a need to tailor products to meet local demand and preferences at the appropriate price levels. With resource-seekers, there is limited scope to manipulate market demand. Demand for commodities is driven by a range of macro-economic environmental factors. Growth Market-seekers and resource-seekers will pursue growth differently. For market-seekers, a presence in the chosen markets and growth is a function of growing the customer base and/or further penetrating the existing customer base through product/service innovations and adaptations to local tastes so as to have a bigger share of the customer’s wallet. Thus, as the market grows, economies of scale can be achieved and profits enhanced. Adaptation requires research that is not only country-specific but also spending “a day in the life of….” consumers to understand how they view, interact with and use various branded products, what these brands represent in their lives and what the levers are for further market penetration. This implies that local knowledge and adaptation are two key differentiators – while of course still balancing this with costs and scale. With mining and Oil & Gas, presence in the market is primarily a function of the life of the mine or oil bed. Growth is therefore necessarily achieved by acquiring new mines or oilfields as resources deplete. Economies of scales, despite a portfolio of commodity investments, can nonetheless still be achieved through, for example, shared services. The Deloitte Mining Shared Services business can help resource-seekers operating on the continent realise significant cost savings. It is structured to achieve economies of scale, ensure cost efficiencies and meet delivery standards – while addressing local, onsite needs. Clients have a choice in terms of outsourcing, co-sourcing or retention of back-office activities based on the business case, business risks and/or imperatives. 10 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 Distribution The African continent faces a significant infrastructure deficit. For resource-seekers wanting to move commodity products from the mines to the ports for export purposes, this used to be viewed as a constraint to doing business on the continent. However, there has been a shift in mind-set, and there is a clear trend of commodity players making investments into infrastructure for their own use. For investors moving onto the continent, it is important to bear in mind that such investments into adjacent sectors may be necessary, and the investment case needs to take such non-core costs into account. Conversely, market-seekers are concerned with achieving as much coverage in their chosen markets and so, in-country infrastructure is important to them. Also important are channels of distribution that do not require brick-and-mortar infrastructure and add to costs in low-margin markets. This has been evident in the banking space where mobile technology and banking systems are fusing to bring banking to the masses while reducing the cost-to-serve. Current applications of mobile telephony in banking include innovations such as M-Pesa, the mobile money transfer service and M-Kesho, the micro-lending mobile platform in Kenya. In yet another example from Kenya, farmers interact proactively with commodity exchanges and track prices with their phones so that they can make informed decisions about the right time to take their produce to market. In the future, we should expect to see more examples in other areas such as health, retailing, insurance and education. Africa has leapfrogged in this aspect, and new entrants need to think outside the box–beyond brick and mortar.
  • 11. Exit strategy Should the need arise to exit, in the event of conflict, for example, market-seekers with only a manufacturing and distribution model have a relatively quick exit. Resource-seekers are more at risk, given the amount of capital invested. Also, given that negotiations for mining rights would have been negotiated by a previous government, in countries where there are poor institutional frameworks and rule of law, it may be difficult to ensure continuity of operations. Summary table Decision-making stage Market-seekers Resource seekers Rationale for Africa expansion • Market-driven • Resource-driven Target countries • Unlimited scope. Small countries’ or small markets can be compensated for by regional integration • Limited scope. Only those countries with certain commodities’ Country assessment • Ease of doing business • Political and social issues • Country and business risks • Language and culture barriers • Legal, regulatory, tax and compliance requirements • Geographical proximity and logistics • Existing infrastructure • Similar to market-seekers, but resource-seekers are sensitive to political instability Regulatory environment • Challenge of lack of policy clarity, lack of policy continuity and lack of policy consistency • Similar to market-seekers Local partners • Great need for local partners • Similar to market-seekers Managing stakeholders • Need to manage relevant stakeholders • Greater need than market seekers – for a broader and more proactive stakeholder engagement strategy that includes communities and governments, given the sensitivity of extracting resources Due diligence • Rigourous due diligence necessary • Similar to market seekers Human Capital • Need a plan for skills transfer and up-skilling on the job • Need a programme for assisting graduates get ready for the world of work • Need a plan for skills transfer and up-skilling on the job • Need a programme for assisting graduates get ready for the world of work Business model • Distribution model initially therefore limited risk • Challenge of moving goods across borders • In situ from the start therefore greater exposure • Challenges of moving goods from the mines to the ports Opportunity assessment Entry strategy Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 11
  • 12. Decision-making stage Market-seekers Resource seekers Production • On the continent in selected hubs or in countries with cost comparative advantage • Beneficiation predominantly does not take place on the African continent Pricing • Pricing geared to meet GDP/capita and socio-economics of local market • Pricing determined by global dynamics and global commodity indices Growth • Presence in the chosen markets and growth is a function of growing the customer base and/or further penetrating the existing customer base • Product/service innovations and adaptations to local tastes so as to have a bigger share of the customer’s wallet • Economies of scale • Growth is achieved by acquiring new mines or oilfields as resources deplete • Standardisation and process efficiency are key and innovations such as shared services in mining can help achieve this Distribution • Mobile telephony applications key to distributing at low cost-toserve to a wide customer base • Physical infrastructure still core for product delivery • May need to invest in infrastructure to move product from mine to ports • By virtue of distribution model, low-risk exit strategy • By virtue of high upfront investments and sunk costs, high-risk exit strategy Establish local operations Exit Exit strategy 12 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3
  • 13. Conclusion: We draw the following conclusions: • Market-seekers differ from resource-seekers in how they do business in Africa. • Doing business in Africa as a market-seeker does not differ significantly from doing business in other emerging/frontier markets as a market-seeker. • Doing business in Africa as a resource-seeker is similar to doing business in other emerging/ frontier markets as a resource-seeker. From a process perspective, there is an equal need for thoroughness in terms of market entry: due diligence, country assessment, competitor analysis and so forth. To illustrate, a market-seeker looking to enter the 1 billion Indian market would need to understand the legislative and market differences in India’s 26 regions before deciding which provinces to enter and how to sequence the entry in the same way they would approach Africa’s 1 billion market spread over 54 countries before selecting countries to enter. Admittedly, the number of countries in Africa makes the task seemingly more daunting, but the process is the same. In our view, the real challenge in accessing market or resource opportunities in Africa relates to understanding the softer issues: understanding the local dynamics, the people, their mentality, their work ethic, the culture, how to get things done, who to speak to and so forth. And this EQ, we contend, is best acquired through a local partner who, of course, must be thoroughly vetted first. In addition to EQ, there is the challenge of a lack of physical infrastructure, but with mind-sets shifting, this is not even deterring investors. And we are witnessing resource-seekers building their own railroads, roads and ports. Given Africa’s lucrative returns, this is small change... Resource-seeker or marketseeker: investment opportunities abound in Africa. Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 13
  • 14. Contacts Anushuya Gounden Partner: Head of Africa Desk E-mail: angounden@deloitte.co.za Taki Nkhumeleni Manager: Africa Desk E-mail: tnkhumeleni@deloitte.co.za For any Africa related information, please contact zaafricadesk@deloitte.co.za References • Annan K, Momentum Rises to Lift Africa’s Resource Curse, 14 September 2012, New York Times Op-Ed • Biryabarema E, Uganda plans competitive bidding for mining licences, 1 October 2012, Reuters • Kabeera E, Rwanda Sees Growth in Regional Trade, 2 October 2012, The New Times • Kamndaya, S Tanzania: Planned review of oil deals rocks investors, 19 September 2012 • Mozambique: Former PM Calls for Renegotiation of Contracts All Africa.com, 27 August 2012 Acknowledgment for contribution by Dr Jacqueline Chimhanzi, alumnus of Deloitte 14 Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3
  • 15. Deloitte on Africa Collection: Issue 3 15
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