1. AN OUTLOOK ON THE TELECOM INDUSTRYâS
TRANSFORMATION FROM NOW
TO 2020 AND BEYOND
NETWORK OPERATIONS
FROM AUTOMATION TO
AUTONOMY
2. 2
Table of Contents
THE FUTURE IS EXCITING: IS YOUR ORGANIZATION READY?
A promising view: How business is doing ........................................................................................................................3
Adapt or Die: The Danger of Legacy Ecosystems...........................................................................................................4
BEHAVIORAL TRENDS TRANSFORMING THE INDUSTRY
Seamless Connectivity and Mobility..................................................................................................................................6
OTT Changes Everything......................................................................................................................................................6
Efficient Streaming and Data are Crucial..........................................................................................................................7
Immersive Experiences Become the Preferred Video Format .....................................................................................8
Customer Intimacy for the Win...........................................................................................................................................8
Everything is Connected.......................................................................................................................................................8
TECHNOLOGIES WITH EXPONENTIAL IMPACT
5G and edge computing ....................................................................................................................................................10
Cloud and Virtualization ...................................................................................................................................................11
Artificial Intelligence............................................................................................................................................................11
BUILDING AN ECOSYSTEM TO SUCCEED: THE THREE âNO REGRETSâ MOVES
Develop virtual platforms....................................................................................................................................................13
Combine the latest AI-based technology with real-time orchestration capabilities................................................13
Lower the costs of providing seamless ubiquitous wireless connectivity................................................................13
THE FINAL PREDICTION: FOUR THINGS THAT WILL CHANGE NETWORK OPERATIONS BY 2020
1.eSIM Connectivity in Everything ...................................................................................................................................15
2.SLA-based and consumer-centric dynamic provisioning ........................................................................................15
3.AI-based Operations and Self-Driving Networks ......................................................................................................16
4.B2B Business Opportunities .........................................................................................................................................16
About Intraway.....................................................................................................................................................................17
3. 3
THE FUTURE IS EXCITING:
IS YOUR ORGANIZATION READY?
Over the last years, we have witnessed a
curious shift in the telecom industry: with
the proliferation of the digital services, data
traffic, and mobility are growing faster than
ever. Analysts predict that by 2020, there will
be 50 B connected devices, 50 EB/month
mobile data traffic, and 20 Mbps mobile
broadband connection speeds. This signifies
an exponential growth in connected devices
and mobile data traffic.
A promising view: How
business is doing
Industry reports show a global decline in
telecom income: in the last year, thereâs
been a 10% capex reduction, opex is down
by 5%, and EBITDA by 6.5%. The telecom
sector reels under heavy debt and declining
revenue.
Why is operatorsâ revenue struggling in spite
of increases in connectivity and data traffic?
Itâs called the classic Revenue and Traffic
Gap â current circumstances affect operation
costs, but not revenue.
Revenues erode while investment in networks
grows. OTTs create value and capitalize on
consumersâ hunger for content while taking
VOICE DOMINATES
DATA DOMINATES
TIME
TrafïŹc Volume
Operator Costs -
Current Model
Operator
Revenue
OPERATOR
REVENUE
&
TRAFFIC
DECOUPLED
Customers
advantage of CSPs and MSOsâ investments
in infrastructure and networks. In other
words, OTTs are monetizing the traffic while
telco operators are spending money on
infrastructure to support it. Not such a great
deal for operators.
4. 4From Automation to Autonomy
The good news for telecom
operators is that they own the
golden ticket â the fundamental
asset that makes everything
possible in the digital economy:
They own the network, but they
have to adapt to a new reality.
And they have to do it fast.
7.5B
9B
CAGR 3%
20222016
WORLDWIDE MOBILE
SUBSCRIPTIONS
WORLDWIDE TOTAL
MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC
WORLDWIDE MOBILE
DATA TRAFFIC PER SMARTPHONE
8.8EB
71EB
CAGR 42%
20222016
2.1GB
12GB
CAGR 33%
20222016
Adapt or Die: The Danger of
Legacy Ecosystems
The way in which the telecom industry
conceived voice, messaging, and video
services is dying. Offerings are now focused
on over-the-top broadband services. Voice
and messaging do not mean making
a phone call or sending SMS anymore.
Communication has shifted â we are now
continuously connected through voice and
text messages, DMs, chats in various social
media apps,video calls over mobile apps like
Whatsapp, Skype, Google Hangouts. Video
is not linear broadcasting on a TV screen
anymore. Nowadays, everything is multi-
device, on-demand, with Netflix and YouTube
leading this space.
To support these new demands on the
network, telecom operators must streamline
decades of piling on systems and complex
architectures. They must change their
âanalogâ processes and be open to exploring
new business models. They must refresh
their legacy ecosystems and embrace the
digital transformation.
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report
WORLDWIDE LTE
SUBSCRIPTIONS
WORLDWIDE MOBILE
BROADBAND PER SUBSCRIPTIONS
WORLDWIDE
SMARTPHONE SUBSCRIPTIONS
3.9B
6.8B
CAGR 10%
20222016
4.4B
8.3B
CAGR 11%
20222016
1.9B
5B
CAGR 18%
20222016
6. 6From Automation to Autonomy
Technology has the potential to transform
every aspect of our lives, and how we relate
to each other as human beings.
Technologies such as robotics, artificial
intelligence, and nanotechnology are radically
changing manufacturing and creating what
we know as the 4th industrial revolution.
Mobile apps are changing our behavior, the
way we interact with each other, and the way
we do businesses, with social networks and
mobile commerce as clear examples.
Technology and society are a perfect
feedback loop where technology drives
society changes. Those changes generate
demands that requires new technologies.
The telecommunications industry must
drive change â but it also has to adapt
to behavioral trends. We have come to
understand that the most relevant ones are
as follow:
Seamless Connectivity and
Mobility
Thanks to the proliferation of mobile devices
such as smartphones, tablets, wearables, and
smart cars, the need of ubiquitous wireless
connectivity is increasingly important.
Users expect high-speed and hassle-free
connectivity everywhere they go â from their
homes to remote locations, they expect to be
connected wherever their dynamic lives take
them. Whether we like it or not, our digital life
is now a key part of our everyday ârealâ life.
OTT Changes Everything
Messaging and voice consumption are
no longer the traditional SMS or phone
calls that were used more than 20 years.
Nowadays these are led by Instant
Messaging (IM) applications and voice over
IP (VoIP) services, such as Whatsapp and
Skype. With this breakthrough, messaging
apps have capitalized on their user base
to expand their functionalities. Becoming
platforms themselves, these messaging
apps now host everything from money
transfers, gaming, commerce, advertising,
and even municipal services.
Messaging apps are moving to serve as a
single unified platform to support usersâ every
need, transforming into virtual concierges for
our digital life.
In the video entertainment front, Internet-
based video apps have taken over, moving
from traditional ad-supported linear TV
programming to an on-demand, totally
customizable experience for the viewer.
We all know that cord-cutting is on the rise.
According to a report by market analyst TDG
Research, over 40 percent of users in the
USA will have eliminated traditional cable
from their homes by 2030. The future of TV â
states the boutique consulting firm focused
on the future of TV â is an app.
7. 7
Efficient Streaming and Data
are Crucial
According to Ericsson ConsumerLab TV and
Media report: âThe growth of on-demand
viewing will continue to soar through to
2020, making up almost half of total viewing.
50 percent of all TV and video viewing will
take place on a mobile screen (tablets,
smartphones and laptops), an increase of
85 percent since 2010, with the smartphone
alone accounting for almost one quarter
(an increase of nearly 160 percent since
2010). Additionally, VR will be on the road
to becoming mainstream, with one in three
consumers becoming VR users by 2020.â
Another fast-growing trend is cloud gaming
â with platforms like gloud.com gaining
traction within the gaming community. These
platforms require high-speed and low latency
streaming networks to provide a great online
gaming experience.
This means additional pressure to deliver
efficient streaming experiences. Since the
preferred content consumption format/
type will not be unique, operators will
need to deliver high-speed data as well as
lower latency and enhanced customized
experiences.
Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, TV and Media report, 2017
Approximately
70 percent of
consumers
watch videos
on a smartphone
- double the amount
from 2012
70%
8. 8
Immersive Experiences
Become the Preferred Video
Format
As augmented reality and virtual reality peek
into the mainstream, early adopters expect
seamless immersive experiences. These
game-changers will soon impact movie
theater and theme park experiences and
attendance, but their implications go way
beyond gaming and cinema. Just imagine
constant relevant feedback in front of you
whenever you are in need of that â from
manufacturing to sightseeing.
According to IDG Connect, 2018 looks bright
for immersive technology. Leading experts
agree that the two key areas that will be most
disrupted by AR and VR are Internet of Things
(IoT) and cybersecurity.
Customer Intimacy for the Win
Going beyond seamless connectivity at a
good price and the ability to build strong
emotional bonds with customers will
become fundamental to succeeding in the
digital economy. Digital natives like Uber
and Amazon are setting the bar high and
defining the customer experience that users
will come to expect from every company,
including service providers. Knowledge of the
customer, ease of use, and flexibility are key
factors to master customer intimacy.
Everything is Connected
From âSmart Appliancesâ to the âSmart Cityâ,
we will live in a world where everything is
connected. We will have better information,
more control and insight into the everyday
things. With sensors everywhere, systems will
be able to keep running autonomously.
LPWAN (lower-power wide area networks)
From Automation to Autonomy
technologies like NB-IOT, Sigfox, and Lora
are accelerating the development of new IoT
applications that require wireless long-range
and low-power connectivity solutions..
Every device you own â and some you donât
even know will soon be an instrumental part
of your everyday life â will be connected to
the Internet. IoT will transform everything
we know in the coming years: From the
way we do business, to how we manage
our household life, our health, security,
manufacturing, and even our cities, will be
powered by IoT connectivity.
9. 9
JUST LIKE MOOREâS LAW DISRUPTED COMPUTING
POWER EVER SINCE 50 YEARS AGO, A DIVERSE RANGE
OF BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES COULD SOON BE
PLAYING A ROLE IN TACKLING THE TELECOM INDUSTRY
MOST PRESSING CHALLENGES.
TECHNOLOGIES WITH
EXPONENTIAL IMPACT
10. 10From Automation to Autonomy
Here is a list of the technologies that have
the potential of creating an exponential
impact on the industry:
5G and Edge Computing
5G is the next-generation mobile networking
standard that will build on the global 4G
Long Term Evolution (LTE) ecosystem. Its
promise goes well beyond high-data rates,
spectral efficiency, ultra-low latency, or
massive sensor networks. It enables new
service opportunities â from just people
communicating on phones to fast real-time
low latency data transmission between
things.
On the other side, edge computing, although
still in its early days, has the power to
bring the core building blocks of cloud â
calculation, storage, and networking â closer
to the consumers. The latency involved in the
round trip to the cloud is reduced when the
calculation moves closer to the origin of the
data, a powerful enabler for the immersive
experiences end users enjoy with AR and IoT.
Although IoT is the key driver of edge
computing, many use cases are accelerating
the pace of adoption. As published in
Demystifying Edge Computing -- Device
Edge vs. Cloud Edge in Forbes, âartificial
intelligence and machine learning models
rely on cloud for the heavy lifting. Typically,
an ML model is trained in the public cloud
and deployed in the edge for near real-time
predictions. Edge computing becomes an
essential component of the data-driven
applications.â
5G Consumer Survey âKey Motivations and Use Cases in 2019 and Beyondâ, Qualcomm, Sept. 2017
11. 11
The industry knows it: software-defined
networking (SDN) and network function
virtualization (NFV) are gaining traction.
As Steve Marsh, Intrawayâs CTO for North
America mentioned, âoperators seek
innovative ways to meet growing bandwidth
demands, boost service delivery and
performance, slash operating costs and
bring new products, services, and features to
market faster than ever before, virtualization
has stepped off the wishlist into the âmust-
haveâ list for many.â
With the power to define, scale-up and scale-
down networks on demand reusing cost-
effective generalized hardware, SDN and NFV
are blocks for delivering increased agility and
cost-savings. They lay the foundation for a
new, more efficient way of doing business.
Cloud and Virtualization
As innovations in devices, applications and
services have driven the connected world
towards cloud based big-data computing and
storage solutions in the last two decades,
the underlying network that connects all of
these things together has remained virtually
unchanged. Ever-increasing data and cloud
solutions demands are compelling operators
towards networks elements, which can scale
accordingly but at lower costs.
The networks that were designed for voice
calls are no longer optimal for connected
devices or âthingsâ to communicate in real
time. With IoT upon us, it will additionally
trigger the need for agile, cloud-centric,
software-driven networks.
Artificial Intelligence
As reliable and affordable bandwidth
becomes readily available, convergence at
network level becomes possible. Adding
dynamism and intelligence into the systems
through AI makes solutions intuitive,
proactive as well as reactive to situations.
AI is expected to have an impact on
many areas â the most important being
traffic classification, anomaly detection
and prediction, resource utilization and
network optimization, along with network
orchestration. It will also assist the mobile
devices with virtual assistants and bots.
Artificial intelligence will solve most of the
issues related to customer care, network
coverage, billing, service/product offering and
many more, making possible to personalize
services and establish one-on-one
communication with each subscriber creating
adaptive customer journeys.
â
SDN and NFV represent a big opportunity for service providers to
save on capital and operational expenditures, develop agile solutions
to compete with (and partner with) over-the-top (OTT) providers, open new
revenue channels and improve customer experience.â
-- Disrupting telcos with virtualization
ET Telecom
13. 13
â
Most of the trends the telcos are exposed to display a high level of
uncertainty â they could turn out to be disruptive, lead to exponential
change over the next decade o sink without trace.â
-- To be or not to be | The Future of the Telco Business Model
Deloitte
There are many factors affecting telcoâs
business. From declining revenue streams
to ever-increasing customer expectations, to
new pressure from new and old players, to
other tech giants dipping their toes in their
sandbox, telcosâ traditional business model is
taking a lot of punches lately.
The role that telecom operators will adopt in
the future is still uncertain. Nevertheless, all
possible scenarios have a common factor:
playing alone is not longer an option and the
key to succeed is building an ecosystem to
leverage and monetize telecom assets and
promote innovation.
Whatever role they adopt in the future, there
are a few âno regretâ moves telcos can easily
execute:
- Develop virtual platforms â Virtualization
in all its dimensions (SDN, NFV, and Cloud) is
the key element that will enable exponential
growth in traffic and connected devices
while maintaining infrastructure costs under
control. It is also an enabler for creating an
open environment to external developers and
partners and to facilitate the rollout of new
and innovative services.
- Combine the latest AI-based technology
with real-time orchestration capabilities â
AI, machine learning and natural language
processing technologies, combined with
real-time dynamic orchestration capabilities
will allow operators to automate more
processes and tasks than never before,
significantly reducing operating costs while
To learn more about
the role and benefits of
orchestration, access
The Essential Orchestration
Toolkit for CSPs and MSOs
â Everything you need
for orchestration project
success
improving service quality and customer
experience.
- Lower the costs of providing seamless
ubiquitous wireless connectivity â Wireless
connectivity is growing exponentially. A
digital experience is built over the concept of
mobility. Reducing costs to rollout, provision
and manage wireless networks and to provide
and activate wireless connectivity to end
customers will be a powerful differentiator to
create value.
15. 15
We foresee that by 2020, networks will have
transitioned from offering limited traditional
static pre -built services to dynamic on-
demand and customizable content and
communications packages.
Networks will be ubiquitous and flex to
the needs of the applications that they are
carrying. The days of dumb connectivity will
be long gone. Networks will behave much
more like the services that they enable.
The industry will see traditional models
replaced with seamless, on-demand-based
networking platforms.
There are four things that will shape
network operations over the next five years
which accelerate the growth of the digital
ecosystem.
1. eSIM Connectivity in
Everything
With the landscape of 50B IoT devices
connected to the network by 2020,
on-demand remote provisioning and
management of mobile connectivity is going
to be a key factor in catapulting this business
to the next level.
Current state-of-the-art mobile networks
represent a roadblock since they rely on a
physical component (the current SIM card) to
link the device to the network.
GSMAâs Embedded SIM (eSIM) standards
and technology enables devices to work on
any network without a physical SIM card.
This would allow customers to easily connect
devices or switch between networks without
having to acquire or change the SIM card.
Although, eSIMs are already used for
machine-to-machine (M2M) applications,
the introduction of eSIMs for consumers will
deliver multiple benefits:
- âMore connected devices â eSIMs are
smaller than traditional removable SIM cards,
enabling devices like smartwatches, fitness
trackers, and even glasses to have stand-
alone mobile connectivity
- âEasy to add to a data plan â connecting
devices to a mobile account with eSIMs can
be as simple as it currently is to add a device
to a home broadband
- âFaster to get connected â consumer
devices with eSIMs will be able to connect to
mobile data networks practically straight out
of the box
The future of connectivity is mobile and the
future of mobile networks is eSIM.
2. SLA-Based and Consumer-
Centric Dynamic Provisioning
In the near future, we foresee consumers
assuming additional control by way of
adaptive and dynamic provisioning of network
resources based on user-defined policies for
their own SLA performance requirements. In
an SLA-based and consumer-centric dynamic
16. provisioning model, the consumers are
declaratively defined in terms of goals, which
are subjected to a number of constraints
that are specific to the user requirements.
Operators will look to a framework that
will facilitate avoiding the cost of any SLA
violation and controlling the monetary cost of
the allocated resources.
3. AI-based Operations and
Self-Driving Networks
The network transformation will force
operators to reconsider how to ensure
availability, performance and quality of
service. Speed, scale, and complexity
challenges traditional rules-based monitoring
and management.
Network operations will use machine
learning and advanced analytics techniques
to improve monitoring, assurance and
automation process in order to:
- âManage the performance of highly
distributed infrastructure
- âSupport the speed of application
architecture change
- âProactively identify problems driving the
majority of incidents
- âManage digital agent interactions at the
edge of the infrastructure
Advances in artificial intelligence, machine
learning, and intent-driven networking
have brought us to the threshold at which
automation gives way to autonomy.
The networking community hungers for
disruptive ideas to address the unsustainable
economics of present-day networks.
4. B2B Business Opportunities
By leveraging their infrastructure advantage
in combination with state-of-the-art digital
technology, telcos can position themselves as
the backbone of the B2B digital economy to
make up for some of the terrain lost in B2C.
This position spans the categories of
connectivity and offers telcos the possibility
of taking leading roles in intelligent networks,
cloud services, analytics, IoT platforms,
security solutions, billing, CRM and much more.
Network operations will look very different
by 2020. Overall, the network will be better
able to serve the demands of the digital
ecosystem and will have the elasticity to grow
and change alongside it.
Steps have already been
taken and this approach to
an on-demand network will
be solidified by t is
an exciting journey, is your
organi ation ready
17. Managing over 55 million devices deployed in 22 countries over three continents,
our solutions have helped improve communications service providersâ profitability,
time-to-market and customer experience since 2003. In other words, we unleash
the full potential of networks by adding the latest, cutting-edge functionalities while
reducing operational costs.
isit our website to learn more about our activation and orchestration, customer
experience and network management solutions.
www.intraway.com
17
About Intraway