Mycle Schneider's presentation on the World Nuclear Report

Mycle Schneider
InternationalConsultanton Energyand NuclearPolicy, Paris, France
ConveningLead Authorofthe World NuclearIndustryStatusReport(WNISR)
Mycle Schneider Consulting Johannesburg, 9 March 2016
The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015
Free download at www.WorldNuclearReport.org
TheEconomicsofNuclear Energy Workshop — Johannesburg,9 March 2016
WWF, HeinrichBöllFoundation, Center for Renewable& SustainableEnergy Studies, Goedgedacht Forum

Johannesburg, 9 March 2016Mycle Schneider Consulting
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1954
1960
1965
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
ReactorStartupsand Shutdownsin the World
in Units, from 1954 to 1 January 2016
Reactor Startup
Reactor Shutdown
© Mycle Schneider Consulting
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2016

-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40 1954
1960
1965
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
ReactorStartupsand Shutdownsin the World
in Units, from 1954 to 1 January 2016
• Reactor Startups
China
Rest of the World
• Reactor Shutdowns
All countries
(no Chinese in Total)

-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1956
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
ReactorStartupsand Shutdownsin the EU28
in units, from 1956 to 1 January 2016
Reactor Startup
Reactor Shutdown

-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1957
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
ReactorStartupsand Shutdownsin the US
in units, from 1956 to 1 January 2016
Reactor Startup
Reactor Shutdown

Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 27 February 2016
Misleading Official Information on World Reactor Fleet

Misleading Official Information on Japan’s Reactor Fleet
Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 27 February 2016

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350 1963
1969
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2003
2005
2007
2010
2014
Number of
ReactorsTWh
Milliers
Rise and Fall of the JapaneseNuclearProgram— 1963 to 2014
Fleet (in Units) and Electricity Generation (in TWh)
Reactors in LTO
Reactors in Operation
Electricity Production
©MycleSchneiderConsulting

The WNISR2014Establishes New Reactor Status Category:
Long-Term Outage or LTO
“A nuclearpower reactor is considered in Long-Term Outage (LTO)
if it has not generated any power in the entire previous calendaryear
and in the first semester of the current calendar year of the WNISR.”
41 reactors worldwide in LTO
- 40 in Japan, shut down between 1995 and 2012
- 1 in Sweden (Oskarshamn-2),shut down in June 2013

438 reactors 342.6 GWe
398 reactors312 GWe
420 reactors
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1954
1960
1970
1980
1989
1990
2000
2002
2010
2015
Number of
Reactors
GWe Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World
in GWe, from 1954 to 1 January 2016
Reactors in operation
Operable capacity

108 reactors
98.5 GW
99 reactors
100.5 GW
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120 1960
1970
1980
1990
1991
2000
2010
2015
Number of
ReactorsGWe
NuclearReactors& Net OperatingCapacity in the US
Reactors in operation
Operable capacity
©MycleSchneiderConsulting©MycleSchneiderConsulting

119.6 GW
128 reactors
123 GWe
177 reactors
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
40
80
120
160
1956
1960
1970
1980
1988
1990
1999
2000
2010
2015
Number of
Reactors
GWe Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU28
Reactors in Operation
Operable Capacity

0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
TWh%
NuclearElectricity Productionin the World 1990-2014
in TWh (net) and share of electricity production (gross)
2,410 TWh
max 17.6%
max 2,660 TWh
10.8%

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
USA
France
Russia
SouthKorea
China
Canada
Germany
Ukraine
Sweden
UK
Spain
Taiwan
India
Belgium
CzechRep.
Switzerland
Finland
Bulgaria
Hungary
SouthAfrica
Brazil
Slovakia
Romania
Mexico
Slovenia
Argentina
Pakistan
Netherlands
Iran
Armenia
Japan
TWh
Nuclear ElectricityProduction by Country in 2014/2013/HistoricMaximum
(in TWh)
Historic Maximum
2014
2013
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC 2015

11
0
10
20
30
40
50
1951 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NumberofConstructionStartsperYear Construction Startsof Nuclear Reactors in the World
by year, 1954 - 1 January 2016
(in Units)
Cancelled or Suspended
Completed
Under Construction

44
0
10
20
30
40
50
1951 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NumberofConstructionStartsperYear
Construction Startsof Nuclear Reactors in the World
by year, 1951 - 1 January 2016
(in Units)
China
Other countries

Reactors “Under Construction” in the World (1 July 2015)
Source:IAEA-PRIS,MSC,2015

-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Years Average AnnualConstruction Timesin the World 1954-July 2015
(by grid connection date)
Size proportional to number of reactors

Construction Times (in years)
Startups between 2005 and July 2015
Country Units Mean Time Min Max
China 18 5.7 4.4 11.2
India 7 7.3 5.1 11.6
South Korea 5 4.9 4 6.4
Japan 3 4.6 3.9 5.1
Russia 3 28.0 25.3 31.9
Argentina 1 32.9 32.9 32.9
Iran 1 36.3 36.3 36.3
Pakistan 1 5.3 5.3 5.3
Romania 1 24.1 24.1 24.1
Total 40 9.4 3.9 36.3
Sources: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

“Is Dismantling Reactors the Future of Westinghouse?”*
Early ClosuresAccelerate– Recent Cases from the USand Sweden
Shutdown Relicensed Reason Age
U.S.
Crystal River-3: 2009 Underway Containment damage 22
San Onofre-2 and -3: 2012 Yes Steam gen. damage 28/29
Kewaunee 2013 Yes Economics 39
Vermont Yankee 2014 Yes Economics 42
Pilgrim 2017? Yes Economics (45)
Fitzpatrick 2016/17 Yes Economics (41/42)
Sweden
Oskarshamn-1 2015? Upgraded Economics (44)
Oskarshamn-2 2013 Upgradehalted Economics 39
Ringhals-1 2020 Upgraded Economics (46)
Ringhals-2 2019 Upgraded Economics (45)
Sources: Various, compiled by MSC; *bizjournals.com, 2 Nov. 2015

The 20 largest European energy utilities lost over half of the €1 trillion
stock market value since 2008,some a lot more.
Europe’s electricity providers face an existential threat.
The Economist, London, October 2013
Utility business models are threatened by the dramatic growth in the
deployment of technologies that generate electricity onsite or at the
distributiongrid level.
NavigantResearch, Boulder, USA,August2014
A new technological paradigm in electricity and the end of the reign of
the large-scale utilities.
Institutefor PublicPolicyResearch, London, September 2014
Traditional Utilities Under Pressure

French Nuclear Companies in Trouble
EDF — World’s Largest Nuclear Power Operator
• 4.5%/a operating cost increase 2007-2012
à Loss of €1.5 billion in 2012
à Need for significant tariff increases
• Stock value plunged89% since 2007
• High debt €37.4bnfor turnoverof €75bn
AREVA — “Global Leader in Nuclear Energy”
• Technically bankrupt
• Loss of €2bn in 2015 (€10bn in 5 years)
• High debt €6.3bn for revenues of €4.2bn
• Stock value plungedby 95% since 2007
• Standard & Poor’s downgradedAREVAshares to BB+ (“junk”)in
November2014 and again to BB- in March 2015
Sources: Company websites; Standard & Poor’s

Stock Price DevelopmentEDFvs. CAC40 — 2007-2016
EDF
CAC40
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com, 27 February 2016

Source: http://www.boerse.de, 27 February 2016
Stock Price DevelopmentAREVAvs. EURO STOXX 50 — 2007-2016
AREVA
EURO STOXX50

Investmentbank Investec has
advisedclients to sell sharesin
French energy groupEDFamid
fears that its connectionwith
the nuclear plant at Hinkley
Point C could put payoutsto
shareholdersunder threat.
This is Money, 25October2015
--------------------------------------
EDFActionnariat salarié(EAS)
said in a statement thatthe
interestsof EDFare gravely
threatenedbythe HinkleyPoint
project, whichit calls"a
financial catastrophyforetold”
(…). EAS asks the management
of EDF to stop thisrisky
project, whosefinancial risks
are to big for our companyand
which couldput EDF's very
survivalat risk.”
Reuters, 12 November 2015
Hinkley Point C: EDF’s Waterloo in the Making?

EDF’s response to these concerns,and that of the governments backing
the projects,has essentially been:“Trust us”.But it is no longer
enough simply to assert confidence in the project’s merits. It is time for
both EDF and the British government to face up to the difficulties
besetting Hinkley Point and to outline alternatives.(…)
Mr Piquemal’s resignationmakes it ever harder to defend a deal whose
flaws have become increasingly apparent.It is time to move on.

➜
Source:Rosatom,January2013

Russian Nuclear Industry Performance
Domestic Projects
• 3 units completed in 10 years after average of 28 years building.
• All 8 units under construction delayed; 2 units for 30+ years.
• Kursk-5 abandoned in 2012 after 27 years of construction.
• Baltic-1 at Kaliningrad abandoned in 2013 after 1 year.
Foreign Projects
• 2 units at Belene, Bulgaria, first Russian Project in the EU,
abandoned in 2012 after 27 years of construction.
• 1 unit at Busheer, Iran started up after 36 years of construction.
• 1 unit at Kudankulam, India started up after 11 years, second unit
still under construction after 12 years.
• 2 units at Mochovce, Slovakia, still under construction after
30 years, €2 billion over budget (since 2008).
• Projects delayed or abandoned in Bangladesh, Czech Republic,
Vietnam, Turkey… to name a few.
Credit Rating
• Atomenergoprom downgraded to “junk” by Moody’s in Feb. 2015

Steve Kidd is an independent
nuclear consultant and
economist with17 years of
work in seniorpositions at the
World NuclearAssociation
and its predecessor
organisation, the Uranium
Institute.
“The sections [in the World Nuclear
Industry Status Report] on prospective
nuclear countriesand the delays to the
constructionof reactors are also
comprehensiveand relatively fair.
,while it is true that
even the Chinese programmeis
suffering somedelays.”
Source: Nuclear Engineering International, September2014

Sources: BP, IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

37
75
125
141
198
227
242
57
65
60
-32
-9
-47
0 2
14
23
71
85
98
-100
0
100
200
300
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TWh/
Variationsin Electricity Production Compared to Reference-Year 1997 in the EU
from Wind, Solar and Nuclear
(in TWh)
Wind
Nuclear
Solar
Source: IAEA-PRIS, BP, MSC 2015

1 3
6
12
26
42
63
75
91
115
0,1 0,3 0,8
3,3 6,8
18
29
2
5 6 7 8
10 12 13
16
19
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Installed Wind,Solarand NuclearCapacity in China 2000-2014
(in GWe)
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
GWe
Source: EPIC, IAEA-PRIS, GWEC 2015

1
4
28
70
96
141
158
50
52
66
93
124
0
6
16
29
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TWh/y
Electricity Production from Wind, Solar and Nuclear in China 2000-2014
(in TWh/year)
Wind
Nuclear
Solar
Source: BP 2015, IAEA-PRIS 2015

3
10
11
13
18
22
26
31
35
38
0,0 0,3 0,5 1.4
2.8
4.4
14
18
16
15 16
20
29
30
33
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
Wind,Solar and NuclearProduction in India 2000-2014
(in TWh)
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
TWh

Concluding Remarks
• Nuclear power has passed its historic maximum for most of the indicators:
operating reactors,electricity generation,reactors under construction,new
construction sites,etc.
• Nuclear’s position in the power market is increasingly threatened bya
shrinkingclient base, increasing production costs,stagnating electricity
consumption,and ferocious competitors,especially from the renewable
energy sector.
• Nuclear industry companiesand utilities are strugglingwith high debt
loads,shrinking profit margins and decreasing prices on the wholesale
power market.

Mycle Schneider Consulting
Mycle Schneider works as independent international consultant on
energy and nuclear policy. He is the initiator and Convening Lead Author
of the World Nuclear Industry Status Reports. He is the Coordinator of the
Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC) and the
Spokesperson for IEAC. He is a member of the International Panel on
Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at Princeton University, USA.
In 2010-2011, he acted as Lead Consultant for the Asia Clean Energy
Policy Exchange, implemented by IRG, funded by USAID, with the focus
of developing a policy framework to boost energy efficiency and
renewable energies. Between 2004 and 2009 he has been in charge of the
Environment and Energy Strategies Lecture of the International Master of
Science for Project Management for Environmental and Energy
Engineering at the Ecole des Mines in Nantes, France.
From 2000 to 2010 he was an occasional advisor to the German Environment Ministry. 1998-2003 he was an advisor to the
French Environment Minister’s Office and to the Belgian Minister for Energy and Sustainable Development.
Mycle Schneider has given evidence or held briefings at national Parliaments in 14 countries and at the European
Parliament. He has advised Members of the European Parliament from four different groups over the past 26 years. He has
given lectures or had teaching appointments at 20 universities and engineering schools in 10 countries.
Mycle Schneider has provided information and consulting services to a large variety of clients including international
institutions and organizations, think tanks and NGOs.
In 1997 he was honoured with the Right Livelihood Award (“Alternative Nobel Prize”).
ThankYou! Contact: mycle@orange.fr www.WorldNuclearReport.org

Mycle Schneider's presentation on the World Nuclear Report

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