IEA Clean Coal Centre Executive Committee meeting April 2016

1. © OECD/IEA 2016
COP-21 and beyond
Coal-fired power and long-term climate goals
Matt Gray
Consultant Analyst – Climate Change Unit
Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks
IEA Clean Coal Centre, Executive Committee Meeting, Paris, April 21st 2016

2. © OECD/IEA 2016
 Long-term ambition
“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below
2˚C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing
that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate
change;” – Article 2 (1a)
 Recognition on current ambition of NDCs
“Notes with concern that the estimated aggregate [GHG] emission levels
from the intended [NDCs] do not fall within least-cost 2˚C scenarios…
notes that much greater emission reduction efforts will be required
… in order to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below
2˚C above … or 1.5˚C…” – 17.
Paris Agreement sets ambitious long-term goal

3. © OECD/IEA 2016
IEA’s strategy versus impact of current NDCs
Global energy-related GHG emissions
Five measures save almost 5 Gt of emissions by 2030 & achieve a
global emissions peak by 2020, without harming economic growth &
using only proven technologies
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2014 2020 2025 2030
GtCO2-eq
Bridge Scenario*
INDC Scenario
GHG savings in Bridge Scenario by measure
(2030)
Energy
efficiency
49%
Reducing
inefficient coal
Renewables
investment
Upstream methane
reductions
Fossil-fuel
subsidy reform
17%
15%
10%
9%
*Power sector
2/3 of the emissions
savings
Source: World Energy Outlook (2015)

4. © OECD/IEA 2016
Inefficient coal remains in current NDCs
Subcritical coal capacity and retirements/additions in the INDC Scenario
Despite the NDCs, inefficient coal plants installed in 2030 are only
marginally lower than today, whereas under the Bridge Scenario
they halve from current levels
Source: World Energy Outlook (2015)

5. © OECD/IEA 2016
Paris Agreement and the ‘ambition mechanism’
 NDCs are progressive targets, which need to be resubmitted on
a 5-yearly basis
 Crucially, each NDC must be a progression compared to the
previous one
Ambition mechanism in the Paris Agreement
2018
•Facilitative
dialogue on
Mitigation
2020
•New or
updated
NDCs
submitted
2023
•Global
stocktake
on
mitigation,
adaptation
and finance
2025
•New or
updated
NDCs
submitted
2028
•Global
stocktake
on
mitigation,
adaptation
and finance
2030
•New or
updated
NDCs
submitted

6. © OECD/IEA 2016
2˚C goal has fundamental implications for
unabated coal power
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
gCO2/kWh
2DS CO2 intensity of generation and technologies
CO2 Intensity under 2DS
Subcritical
Supercritical
Ultra-supercritical
Ultra-supercritical with CCS
Source: Energy, Climate Change and Environment (2016)
Regardless of efficiency, unabated coal-fired power is inconsistent
with 2˚C goal

7. © OECD/IEA 2016
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh
Global unabated coal-fired generation by region in the 2DS
RoW
ASEAN
India
OECD
China
Total (unabated and CCS)
To meet 2˚C goal unabated coal needs to be
phased-out by 2050
ETP 2DS foresees a phase-out of unabated coal power in OECD
countries by 2035 – and the entire world by 2050
Source: Energy, Climate Change and Environment (2016)

8. © OECD/IEA 2016
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh
Global unabated coal-fired generation by technology in the 2DS
Advanced
Supercritical
Subcritical
Total (unabated and CCS)
To meet the <2 to 1.5˚C goal…
To minimize stranding, <2 to 1.5˚C will require aggressive phase-out
of unabated coal, as well as extensive CCS retrofitting
<2-1.5˚C
goal?
Source: Energy Technology Perspectives (2016)

9. © OECD/IEA 2016
Thanks for listening!
Matt Gray
matthew.gray@iea.org
(33-1) 40 57 66 37