1. TESLA (TSLA)
TOYOTA (TM)

2. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
GDP
PERSONAL INCOME
CPI
CORE CPI
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
CREDIT CARD PURCHASES
ENERGY PRICES
FED FUNDS RATE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
KEY INDICATORS
+1.0% Q4 (Second Estimate)
+0.5%
-0.2%
+0.3%
4.9% Feb. 2016
+259,000(p) Week Ending March 5
+5.0%
+47%
UNCHANGED
-5.7% (92)

3. EQUITIES & ESTIMATES
DJIA
NASDAQ
S&P 500
MSCI WORLD
MSCI EMERGING MRKTS
WTD RESULTS % ∆
1.3
0.7
1.2
1.2
1.3
S&P 500 TARGET
10 YR. T.BILL
WTI CRUDE
GDP ESTIMATES %
GLOBAL
US
EUROZONE
EMERGING MARKETS
2000
2.0%
$45.00
-------
3.2
2.0
1.5
4.2
ESTIMATES - ML

4. GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

5. TEN YEAR T.BILL SPREAD & INTEREST RATES

6. YIELD CURVESEUROZONE JAPAN
USA

7. MOVEMENTS IN OIL
BRENT CRUDE OIL WTI CRUDE OIL

8. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
AUTOMOTIVE
“Automotive Industry have been hit hard in recent months, with double-digit
declines across the board. While equities in general have fared poorly, automakers
have been sunk by fears of a sales peak in the U.S. and slowing growth in China”
CHALLENGES Missing estimates for growth in China, -23% in industry since
November 2015 v. S&P 500
Low fuel prices, new models attracting attention
Average car is 12 years old making an easy replacement, luxury
car market provides hefty margins
China sales (Up 6% but below estimates)
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
NEAR FUTURE
METRICS TO WATCH

9. INDUSTRY FORECAST
Employees: total Nonfarm Payrolls v.
Industry Sales
Multiple R .790152
R Square 0.6243409
P-value 0.0065286
y = 11.46x - 806233
R² = 0.6243
$500,000.00
$550,000.00
$600,000.00
$650,000.00
$700,000.00
$750,000.00
$800,000.00
$850,000.00
$900,000.00
128000 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 140000 142000 144000

10. REGRESSION
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.790152488
R Square 0.624340955
Adjusted R Square 0.577383574
Standard Error 39355.17361
Observations 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 20593095128 20593095128 13.29590675 0.006528675
Residual 8 12390637518 1548829690
Total 9 32983732646
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 90.0% Upper 90.0%
Intercept -806233.3488 427618.884 -1.885401648 0.096103593 -1792324.264 179857.5661 -1601411.205 -11055.49214
X Variable 1 11.45958773 3.142751292 3.646355269 0.006528675 4.212390259 18.70678521 5.615490737 17.30368473

11. COMPANY ANALYSIS
TESLA – TSLA
TSLA
Growth Rates
Sales 23.5%
Cash Flow NMF
Earnings NMF
Dividends NIL
Book Value 16.5%
Liquidity/Financial Health
Current Ratio 0.99
Quick Ratio 0.49
Financial Leverage 7.43
Debt/Equity 1.87
Profitability
Asset Turnover (Average) 0.58
Return on Assets % -12.75
Return on Equity % -88.84
Return on Invested Capital % -21.59
Interest Coverage -6.37

12. FORWARD GUIDANCE
SHARE PRICECONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION

13. COMPANY ANALYSIS
TOYOTA - TM
TM
Growth Rates
Sales 4.5%
Cash Flow 11.5%
Earnings 22.50%
Dividends 18.50%
Book Value 4.50%
Liquidity/Financial Health
Current Ratio 1.10
Quick Ratio 0.79
Financial Leverage 2.83
Debt/Equity 0.59
Profitability
Asset Turnover (Average) 0.60
Return on Assets % 4.87
Return on Equity % 13.86
Return on Invested Capital % 6.17
Interest Coverage 85.48

14. FORWARD GUIDANCE
SHARE PRICECONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION

15. 3 Year Valuation Model
TESLA
Tesla
3 Year Valuation Year Dividend Required Return Div PV
1 $- 1.124510000 $-
2 $- 1.26452274 0
Beta 1.30 3 $- 1.421968466 0.000000000
Rm 10.00% EPS*(1+EGR)^2*P/E - -
Recent Dividend $-
Risk Free Rate 1.83%
Required return 12.451%
DGR 0.00% Intrinsic Price $- Overvalued
EGR 0.00% Market Price $106.60 2/26/16
EPS (1.90)
P/E -

16. Sensitivity Analysis
Tesla-Market Cap 18.9($ Bil)
P/E Beta EGR DGR ROR Valuation Market $237.57 3 Year Valuation($4.92)
Low 0.00 0.48 16.50% 0.00% 459.32% 141.00 -96.57 136.08
Mean 0.00 0.60 16.50% 0.00% 528.74% 369.69 132.12 364.77
High 0.00 1.30 16.50% 0.00% 917.70% 231.40 -6.17 226.48
P/E Beta EGR DGR
Valueline (Trailing/Past 10) -- 1.30 16.50%
Valueline (Median/Past5) -- 1.30 16.50%
Valueline (Forward/Est.) -- 1.30 16.50%
Morningstar (Current/1yr Gr) -- 0.48 15.58%
Morningstar (Forward) -- 0.48 15.58
Google Finance -- 0.56 15%
Mergent Online -- 0.48 15.60%
Yahoo Finance (Past) -- 0.48 15%
Yahoo Finance (Forward) -- 0.48 15%

17. 3 Year Valuation Model
TOYOTA
Toyota
3 Year Valuation Year Dividend Required Return Div PV
1 $4.0000 1.095915000 $3.65
2 $5.6169 1.201029687 4.67673702
Beta 0.95 3 $6.6560 1.31622645 5.056900734
Rm 10.00% EPS*(1+EGR)^2*P/E 165.82 125.98
Recent Dividend $4.00
Risk Free Rate 1.83%
Required return 9.592%
DGR 18.50% Intrinsic Price $139.36 Undervalued
EGR 22.50% Market Price $106.60 2/26/16
EPS 13.00
P/E 8.5

18. Sensitivity Analysis
Toyota-Market Cap 168($Bil)
P/E Beta EGR DGR ROR Valuation Market $135.40
3 Year
Valuation$132
.05
Low 7.60 0.60 7.00% 10.00% 988.60% 118.50 -16.90 -13.55
Mean 9.05 0.68 13.00% 8.00% 1090.63% 135.80 0.40 3.75
High 17.56 0.95 22.50% 6.00% 1424.70% 178.31 42.91 46.26
P/E Beta EGR DGR
Valueline (Trailing/Past 10) 8.70 0.90 7.00% 3.00%
Valueline (Median/Past5) NMF 0.90 13.00% 6.00%
Valueline (Forward/Est.) 8.50 0.95 22.50% 18.50%
Morningstar (Current/1yr
Gr) 8.00 0.60 12 3.40%
Morningstar (Forward) 7.60 0.62 13 1.90%
Google Finance 8.8 0.70 13.2 3.40%
Mergent Online 17.56 0.65 13 3.64
Yahoo Finance (Past) 8.2 0.60 8 3
Yahoo Finance (Forward) 7.89 0.61 8 3.05

19. DIVERSIFICATION
P-VALUE
MULTIPLE R
R SQUARE
BETA
VL-BETA
1.92742E-36
0.8310753
0.424833576
0.873518688
0.95
2.37675E-15
0.33039456
0.234173
.92
1.30

20. SOURCES
http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Overview
http://www3.valueline.com/
http://www.nasdaq.com/
https://www.google.com/finance
http://library.morningstar.com.proxymu.wrlc.org